Hurricane futures

[NEOWatcher]

New futures market would allow people to gamble on where a storm might hit (http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_fullstory.asp?id=38164)
Hey, we're forecasters, not bookies :wink:

The three professors aren’t playing some grim game but instead think the collective wisdom of the marketplace will prove more accurate than government forecasters.
How can it be more accurate when people will be trying for the "Longshot"?

If you want to gamble on hurricanes, then gamble on hurricanes, don't try to disguise it as research. This is pure gambling using PC language.

[Tensor]

If you want to gamble on hurricanes, then gamble on hurricanes, don't try to disguise it as research. This is pure gambling using PC language.

Hey, gambling on hurricanes is just part of living in Florida. :D

[farmerjumperdon]

What a bunch of goofs, and shame on any intelligent person buying into this; though that would be mutually exclusive from the start. (Sort of like a wise person believing in Planet X).

The market is about making money and distributing goods. It's got nothing to do with collective wisdom (unless you're talking about the subset of collective wisdom that has to do with making money and distributing goods).

[Nergal]

New futures market would allow people to gamble on where a storm might hit (http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_fullstory.asp?id=38164)
Hey, we're forecasters, not bookies :wink:

The three professors aren’t playing some grim game but instead think the collective wisdom of the marketplace will prove more accurate than government forecasters.
How can it be more accurate when people will be trying for the "Longshot"?

If you want to gamble on hurricanes, then gamble on hurricanes, don't try to disguise it as research. This is pure gambling using PC language.
Well, there is some research indicating that "futures markets" have some measure of validity at predicting things. To the best of my knowledge however, that has so far been limited to things involving human interaction...or at least things that humans can influence.

I've got (very large) doubts it can be applied to weather forcasting.

[Grey]

I'm reminded of an example from Richard Feynman. Suppose you want to know the length of the emperor's nose, with the difficulty that nobody is allowed to even look at the emperor, let alone hold a ruler up to his face. So instead you take a big survey and ask everybody how long they think the emperor's nose is, and average the results. Since you've averaged all that data, of course your final result will be accurate, right? :wink:

[TriangleMan]

Why gamble on a futures market when you just buy shares in a property/catastrophe reinsurance company. It's pretty much the same thing, no hurricanes = big profits.

[Stregone]

I remember reading about this sort of thing a while ago. In New Scientist maybe. It was surprisingly accurate.

[NEOWatcher]

snip
Well, there is some research indicating that "futures markets" have some measure of validity at predicting things. To the best of my knowledge however, that has so far been limited to things involving human interaction...or at least things that humans can influence.

I've got (very large) doubts it can be applied to weather forcasting.
Exactly my thinking, but with better words;

For weather forecasting, you have models, known factors, trends, research, etc. A hurricane is not exactly random, and the only Supply and demand is heat, moisture, and terrain (all predictible)

Also; in a futures market, losers don't give up all thier money. They lose a fraction, and the winners gain a fraction. What they are proposing is winner takes all - gambling.

Also; A futures market involves assets of some kind.

Also; a hurricane ends. markets tend not to. (even Enron ended up with some assets to liquidate)

[Humphrey]

Don't bet on it. Once the gov't hears im rigging all the hurricanes to go with my bets they will close it down.

[Launch window]

NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston was to close Wednesday due to the threat posed by Hurricane Rita and control of the International Space Station will be handed to Russia, the US agency said.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/iss-05zzzzd.html
Storm Forces NASA To Pass Space Station Control To Russia