Poll: First contact- when?

[banquo's_bumble_puppy]

When do you think first contact will likely happen, if ever? By that I mean receipt of a signal of some sort of signal or a meeting in "person"...

[Moose]

I don't think this is a question that can reasonably be answered, Banquo, except perhaps by "when we do."

[genebujold]

I don't think this is a question that can reasonably be answered, Banquo, except perhaps by "when we do."

It cannot be reasonably answered by the scientific method, as we simply do not have enough data upon which to base even an estimate.

But it can certainly be reasonably answered by that old tried and true method, which, in certain cases with sparse data, the human brain has been proven fairly capable of recognizing patterns and finding answers that are at least close to the truth.

It's called a "hunch."

I wouldn't hang my hat on it, but it's nevertheless a valuable tool.

In the cockpit, we pilots refer to it as "the pinch," which is usually the feeling we get when something is starting to go wrong but we can't put our finger on what it might be just yet. Sometimes it's a slight sound change in one of the engines. Other times it's an incongruity between what two difference sources might be indicating.

Regardless, if we resorted to the scientific method at those times, there's be a lot more dead pilots and passengers than there are today.

[Van Rijn]

I don't think this is a question that can reasonably be answered, Banquo, except perhaps by "when we do."

It cannot be reasonably answered by the scientific method, as we simply do not have enough data upon which to base even an estimate.

But it can certainly be reasonably answered by that old tried and true method, which, in certain cases with sparse data, the human brain has been proven fairly capable of recognizing patterns and finding answers that are at least close to the truth.

It's called a "hunch."



A hunch is usually based on SOME information. Sure, sometimes you have to take a chance and pick an option at random, but I don't see the point for a poll question. We could find ET tomorrow. We may never find ET. There may be no ET to meet. Who knows?

[Moose]

Exactly, even a hunch needs something to go on. I couldn't even begin to come up with a ballpark on a question like this.

We now probably have the capability of recieving and recognizing an artificial signal, if we're lucky enough to actually be listening if such a signal were to arrive. From there, the best anybody can do is pull a number out of their rear.

[Sam5]

My opinion: Already happened, several thousand years ago.

[tracer]

Exactly, even a hunch needs something to go on. I couldn't even begin to come up with a ballpark on a question like this.
All right, here's a data point for your consideration:

Starting in the mid 1930s, radio signals transmitted from broadcast stations on the Earth became powerful enough that they could be detected by radio telescopes in other star systems.

Those first strong radio signals have now propagated approximately 70 light-years out into the neighboring stars.

This means that all stars within about 35 light-years are close enough to have not only received the signals, but to have transmitted a "reply", assuming any civilizations existed around any of those stars who (A) had radio telescopes, (B) could figure out that our signals are of intelligent origin, and (C) cared enough to send a reply.

Every two years, this "signal turn-around" radius increases by one light-year.

[Andromeda321]

I voted the next few decades. When there's no true way of guessing, being optimistic never hurt. :wink:

[lek]

Where's the option maybe in next 1000000 years? Whole poll's time scale is "quite" optimistic....

[Moose]

I voted the next few decades. When there's no true way of guessing, being optimistic never hurt. :wink:

And I suppose in nine years or so one can pull a Lieder and roll back the estimate a decade at a time.

[Van Rijn]

Exactly, even a hunch needs something to go on. I couldn't even begin to come up with a ballpark on a question like this.
All right, here's a data point for your consideration:

Starting in the mid 1930s, radio signals transmitted from broadcast stations on the Earth became powerful enough that they could be detected by radio telescopes in other star systems.

Those first strong radio signals have now propagated approximately 70 light-years out into the neighboring stars.

This means that all stars within about 35 light-years are close enough to have not only received the signals, but to have transmitted a "reply", assuming any civilizations existed around any of those stars who (A) had radio telescopes, (B) could figure out that our signals are of intelligent origin, and (C) cared enough to send a reply.

Every two years, this "signal turn-around" radius increases by one light-year.

Of course, this has been argued here before. This is questionable. Picking up just any radio signal against background noise isn't trivial and becomes harder the further away you get. Anyway, even if the galaxy is full of technological ETs, we would be extremely lucky (or perhaps, unlucky) to have one that close by.

But since there is absolutely no way to know if there are technological ETs around or how common they are or where they are or if they use radio or ... it is all still pure guesswork. The only reason to do SETI is to try to answer the question. We can't answer the question before we look.

[Champion_Munch]

Never.

with regards

[mickal555]

My opinion: Already happened, several thousand years ago.

huh?


arn't you supposed to be at school CM

[Enzp]

I was thinking more like 2.4 million years ago. ET contacted Mog and his mate Nur. Unfortunately Mog was unsure of what to do with his new Palm Pilot so he used it to crack open clams. For that reason we have no record of the event.


Once we establish the answer to how many of them are out there, then we can start to put numbers on the when. Until that time, I can't get into running through all the same stuff again.


Therefore, therefore, therefore, if, if, if, etc.

[Champion_Munch]

My opinion: Already happened, several thousand years ago.

huh?


arn't you supposed to be at school CM

Nup, pupil free day. :D (don't you have that up there? :-?)

I think he is alluding to the notion that ancient civilizations were visited by aliens...not something I'm gonna bother explaining, I'm sure Sam5 will gladly delve into it for ya... :roll:

with regards

[mickal555]

My opinion: Already happened, several thousand years ago.

huh?


arn't you supposed to be at school CM

Nup, pupil free day. :D (don't you have that up there? :-?)

I think he is alluding to the notion that ancient civilizations were visited by aliens...not something I'm gonna bother explaining, I'm sure Sam5 will gladly delve into it for ya... :roll:

with regards

can't wait :roll:

Yeah- most other ppl had theirs on monday though..

[Champion_Munch]

can't wait :roll:

Yeah- most other ppl had theirs on monday though..

Really? I thought it was the same day for everyone...

Then why are you posting at 9am in the morning...8-[

with regards

[N C More]

No way to even render a "good guess" on this one. However, if I have my choice in the matter...How about next week? Next week would be good for me! :D

[mickal555]

can't wait :roll:

Yeah- most other ppl had theirs on monday though..

Really? I thought it was the same day for everyone...

Then why are you posting at 9am in the morning...8-[

with regards
in addidion to wensday

I know my primary school had monday's off...
St pauls has tuesday off.
my current school has thursday off...

I've forgotten what the point of it was. I think it was just to gloat that I had the day off too or something- weekend in the middle of the week! :D

[Champion_Munch]

in addidion to wensday

I know my primary school had monday's off...
St pauls has tuesday off.
my current school has thursday off...

I've forgotten what the point of it was. I think it was just to gloat that I had the day off too or something- weekend in the middle of the week! :D

I'd have traded this friday off for every other day I had off this week... :(

with regards

[mickal555]

I wouldn't

If I had thursday friday I would have- but as it's gotta we wendsday + something... might as well be thursday

Friday's alway's a bludge
Science
asembally
english
Industrial design and prosessing

wait!

I just remembered-
Science test
we start our prac work in IDT that means all our design's have to be in and I've been spending 5hrs drawing in TC..

I think I have to agree there...

If it was, Normal circomstaces though...

[Champion_Munch]

Friday's usually horrible (Peer support, PLC, Parade, JAM, double HazChemo then Latitude and Scademy) but this Friday was particularly bad....2 tests and an assingment due in. #-o

You only have 3 lessons on Friday??

with regards

[Sticks]

Never Ever

From my reading around the probabilities quoted by such people as Carl Sagan and Fred Hoyle as to life arrising by natural processes alone they go way beyone the Borel law of probability that any event with a chance of happening given as 1 in 10^50 - is not going to happen. See this link (http://www.apologeticspress.org/rr/reprints/outspace.pdf)

We are alone in the universe.

[mickal555]

Friday's usually horrible (Peer support, PLC, Parade, JAM, double HazChemo then Latitude and Scademy) but this Friday was particularly bad....2 tests and an assingment due in. #-o

You only have 3 lessons on Friday??

with regards

4-they go for 70mins each (actually 2 35min lessions but they are all douple except for asembally and WDP, which we had today)

[Ilya]

I marked "100-200 years", but only because it is the longest "non-never" choice. My real "hunch" is that it will take tens of thousands of years. In fact, I would give about even odds that the "first contact" will occur between two (post-)human colonies, one or both of which forgot their origins, and thus woud perceive the other as aliens.

[farmerjumperdon]

Very plausible, at least as plausible as the other answers. I wrote that into a timeline once that I put together for a bunch of high school freshmen. Something along the lines of - If we are going to survive long-term, then we will need to leave Earth, and to ensure survival we will do so in humongous spaceship colonies that head off in several different directions. It's of course a 1-way trip, and if more than 1 colony is successful, they could thrive for thousands or millions of years before meeting again. It'd probably be like me meeting my cousin Tommy last weekend for the first time in about 25 years. We look the same, but different.

I don't read much sci-fi so would not know; but I'd bet this has all been covered. Still, strange to think that someday Earth may only exist as a minor sidebar in some cultures ancient mythology.

And my official vote is that any answer is purely a guess (a couple notches below a hunch).