Rita's bullseye on Galveston

[Lord Jubjub]

So I wake up this morning and look at Rita's forecast track--still pointed to the ranch country north of Brownsville. :lol:

I go to work and, in an off moment, take a look at the 10:00 update: Saturday morning 0800 hours, right over the island of Galveston. :eh:

I live in west Houston. That wasn't (and still isn't) a pretty sight. :sad:

[jrkeller]

I live in Southeast Houston, only 30 miles north of Galveston. I noticed that the 8 pm update moved the storm a little more to the west.

[jrkeller]

Here's a good compilation site (http://www.ih2000.net/ira/bmt-wth.htm) for anything related to hurricanes.

[Lord Jubjub]

I live in Southeast Houston, only 30 miles north of Galveston. I noticed that the 8 pm update moved the storm a little more to the west.

Which makes the situation even worse. Galveston and Houston is looking to get hit with the east side of the eye. . . :(

[Wolverine]

Glad I live inland on a hill. :eek:

[Jim]

I live in Southeast Houston, only 30 miles north of Galveston. I noticed that the 8 pm update moved the storm a little more to the west.

Me, too! Clear Lake... Meadowgreen. Technically we don't have to evacuate unless the storm reaches a strong Cat 3, but the missus and the daughter are planning to bug out Thursday.

Which makes the situation even worse. Galveston and Houston is looking to get hit with the east side of the eye.

Right now, they're projecting Matagorda Bay; that's much better than Freeport. If the High holds position and strength a little longer, the storm should move further south. I'm hoping for Kenedy County.

[MrClean]

Great, hit one refinery area and then hit another with the next pass. Guess I'll fill duely tanks up on my truck up today.

[Lord Jubjub]

At which point do they start putting the oil platforms on the bottom of the Gulf?

[Doodler]

I'd say about a day after a real monster Category 5 storm puts'em there.

[publiusr]

Great--more oil infrastructure to come down.

[Laser Jock]

I sure hope it weakens before it hits anything. But you have to admit that it is beautiful (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html).

[Swift]

Great--more oil infrastructure to come down.
CNN.com / Money Magazine story (http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/21/news/economy/rita_threat/index.htm?cnn=yes) speculating that gas might hit $5 / gallon because of the double whammy of Katrina and Rita on Gulf oil platforms and refinneries.

Good luck to all our Texan BAUTers.

[CalabashCorolla]

I wonder if NASA has plans to evacuate the JSC...they did in Ocotber 2002 ahead of Hurricane Lili, which wasn't as strong as Rita is now. ISS opps were temporarily transferred to Moscow, and the T-35s were flown elsewhere. Unreal.

My local weatherman just said that Rita's pressure is down to 905 mb as of a few minutes ago...this makes it the fifth strongest storm recorded in the Atlantic, just behind Katrina at 902 mb. The good news on Rita is the huge mass of dry air over the Texas mainland and western Gulf which will hopefully start to be entrained by and weaken her as she chugs on. So she may make landfall as "only" a category 3 or so, which is still pretty bad, but not as devastating as Katrina.

[cyswxman]

At 2116 UTC, down to 904mb.

[Lord Jubjub]

as of the evening of 21 Sep, the pressure hits 898--third lowest. The winds will catch up to that pressure drop later this evening. This speed will almost certainly exceed Katrina and may rival Gilbert--190 mph.

[jimmy]

A couple of hours ago they said sustained winds were 165 mph.

[CalabashCorolla]

A couple of hours ago they said sustained winds were 165 mph.

The recon flight that reported the 898 mb pressure had a dropsonde that reported only 35kt surface winds at the 898 (actually 899) mb drop point, so they did not come out with a new wind estimate that was accurate. Keep in mind, though, that hurricanes are essentially a mix of fast and slow pockets of wind, so they likely missed the area of strongest winds.

The winds are probably over 165 mph by now; this will likely show up in the next recon flight report.

[antoniseb]

A couple of hours ago they said sustained winds were 165 mph.

Some friends of mine from near Galveston are comeing to spend the weekend. This storm looks pretty bad.

[Lord Jubjub]

I've seen posts on a weather board that the Navy's recon put wind speeds at 173 mph.

Check that: The latest NHC update puts the wind speed at 175 mph--the same as Katrina.

[Reina]

Category 5. Bye bye Texas.

[Lord Jubjub]

OTOH, hurricanes do USUALLY die off fast once they hit land. The official forecast, though, is thinking that Rita may stall--inland, though an offshore stall can not be ruled out. :sick:

NOW you can say bye, bye, Texas. :boohoo:

[Reina]

OTOH, hurricanes do USUALLY die off fast once they hit land. The official forecast, though, is thinking that Rita may stall--inland, though an offshore stall can not be ruled out. :sick:

NOW you can say bye, bye, Texas. :boohoo:

LOL like i said.......... ;)

[jrkeller]

I'm out of here in few hours. If you don't heard from me for a while you'll know why.

[Wolverine]

I'm out of here in few hours. If you don't heard from me for a while you'll know why.

Be safe. :)

Things don't look that bad for me. Latest NWS forecast:

Saturday: Rain and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, with a high near 89. Windy, with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Biggest catastrophe for me would be the cable going out during college football.

[Maksutov]

I'm out of here in few hours. If you don't heard from me for a while you'll know why.Good luck to you! Here's wishing you a safe journey both ways!

[Maksutov]

[edit]Biggest catastrophe for me would be the cable going out during college football.Definite bummer there. :evil: Hope it doesn't happen.

Meanwhile, any games you'd like me to DVR just in case?

[Wolverine]

Definite bummer there. :evil: Hope it doesn't happen.

Meanwhile, any games you'd like me to DVR just in case?

Thanks, but I'll be ok. The early games (http://nationalchamps.net/2005/tv_listings/index.htm) are of the most interest to me anyway, and in the event I lose power for a while or the signal dies for the main event (Mich @ Wisky), ESPN2 contests are usually rebroadcast late night Saturday and Sunday. I shall prevail. ;)

[AGN Fuel]

I'm out of here in few hours. If you don't heard from me for a while you'll know why.


Take care JRK, and all those at risk from this storm. Keep safe.

[Cylinder]

From the 0400 Strike Probabilities Advisory (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT3+shtml/220832.shtml):




PENSACOLA FL X X 1 3 4
MOBILE AL X X 2 4 6
GULFPORT MS X 1 4 4 9
BURAS LA 1 6 4 2 13
NEW ORLEANS LA X 4 7 2 13
NEW IBERIA LA X 7 8 3 18
PORT ARTHUR TX X 7 11 3 21
GALVESTON TX X 11 9 2 22
FREEPORT TX X 10 10 2 22
PORT O CONNOR TX X 8 10 2 20
CORPUSCHRISTI TX X 4 9 2 15
BROWNSVILLE TX X 3 4 2 9



Emphasis is mine. Probabilities are in percent and are listed for the following time-frames:



A IS FROM NOW [0400 CDT] TO 1AM FRI
B FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI
C FROM 1PM FRI TO 1AM SAT
D FROM 1AM SAT TO 1AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

[Cylinder]

The 0400 CDT Hurricane Rita Discussion (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/220843.shtml) from the National Hurricane Center has a couple of bits of potential good news:

First evidence of eye-wall replacement:

THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A INCREASINGLY STRONG OUTER WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS LIKELY THE START OF A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE END OF THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.

The bad news:

THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED

I'm assuming that a replacement cycle over the warm loop current will supply Rita with the warm water needed to allow the replacement wall to strengthen and contract.

GFS and SHIPS models forecast weakening due to wind shear:

THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

The bad news is that NHS sounds skeptical:

HOWEVER...THE GFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR.

The NHS Discussion settled on the following intensity forecast:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT SHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR. SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.

[Edit: Format & spelling]

[Maksutov]

Glad I live inland on a hill. :eek:Same here. Right near the top of hill, and about 350 miles inland.

The Gulf Coast is nice to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there.

[Wolverine]

The Gulf Coast is nice to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there.

Agreed. The revised forecast (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/) as of this morning suggests even less of an impact on my area than anticipated.

[Tinaa]

Category 5. Bye bye Texas.

I doubt those stuck on I-45 all night would think that statement very funny. Nor those we are stuffing into shelters. Nor will you when gas shoots up again. It has finally fallen below 2.50/gal.

Hotels all around are already booked. We are still housing Katrina victims. We have several evacuees in my school and they lost everything they had. These people are in a terrible situation.

Reina, I think your statement is rather thoughtless. Bad, bad timing.

[N C More]

I just saw this little article (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9417904/) on MSNBC. If we are indeed, entering into a time period of where large hurricanes will be common place, then I think that re-building the sea walls and levees to accomodate this trend has to be a high priority for all gulf coastal cities. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure!

[George]

I suspect there will be many repercussions, all costly. Higher construction standards for home and industry are possible. From the looks of the trickle of traffic due to jammed-up I10, better roads (hopefully). Much better evacuation mangagement is a given, no doubt.

The degree of these improvements could be dependent on just how much damage is done by Rita. It's beginning to look hopeful that Rita could hit a little east of Galveston (based on my optimistic projection, however).

The shelters seem to be holding up here in SA. Most of the Katrina evacuees have moved out just in time as we worked last night cleaning-up to make ready for our new guests. A large number of churches with gym's (which have showers normally) are handling much of the evacuee load. Volunteers are cooking beginning at 5:30 am each morning. Teams work to maintain a 24 hour support effort.

[Tinaa]

I10 is a total nightmare. Traffic in my little town due east of SA is bumper to bumper. Gonna be a long weekend.

[Cylinder]

It's beginning to look hopeful that Rita could hit a little east of Galveston (based on my optimistic projection, however).

Here is last night's model tracks (0000 UTC). I'm not sure that they are the absolute latest, but I haven't seen any newer.

http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/1421/ritamodel8hj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)



The full size image can be found here (http://pantheon.yale.edu/~bkw5/images/Rita_092105_11pm_track.png), courtesy of Yale. StormTrack (http://www.thestormtrack.com/) is a great blog for the latest weather information, but they do not have this morning's NHC advisories and predictions up yet. The next set of NHC predictions should be out at 1000 CDT.

[George]

Thanks. There is some encouragemnent for weakening.

I found this from a resident on the Bolivar Peninsula which is just east of Galveston. It was taken from a residence on the beach there. (http://www.shifting-sands.com/bolivar_peninsula.html)

This spout was, apparently, seen one month before hurricane Claudetee hit his area in 2003.

These could easily be common soon down there. I sure hope it turns a little more east.


http://www.shifting-sands.com/images/WaterSpout.jpg

[hmmm...how do I shrink this image down? I shrunk it, but the preview restores it to it's orginal size?]

[Maksutov]

[edit]These could easily be common soon down there. I sure hope it turns a little more east.From all of us here in Mississippi, THANKS! :evil:

[ToSeek]

Latest predicted track (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_5day.html) is shifted well to the east, almost to the Louisiana border.

[Maksutov]

Here is last night's model tracks (0000 UTC). I'm not sure that they are the absolute latest, but I haven't seen any newer.

http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/1421/ritamodel8hj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)



The full size image can be found here (http://pantheon.yale.edu/%7Ebkw5/images/Rita_092105_11pm_track.png), courtesy of Yale. StormTrack (http://www.thestormtrack.com/) is a great blog for the latest weather information, but they do not have this morning's NHC advisories and predictions up yet. The next set of NHC predictions should be out at 1000 CDT.That light green one to the east puts it right over my house. Ditto re the purple one. But, being ~350 miles inland means it will have weakened by then.

Nevetheless, those suckers can still cause some damage.

Here's a shot of typical damage from Katrina in Oxford at the east entrance to Ole Miss:

http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/4927/katrinadamageoxfordms200509049.th.jpg (http://img241.imageshack.us/my.php?image=katrinadamageoxfordms200509049.jpg)

[Sam5]

Looks to me like it's turning north toward Louisiana.

[Cylinder]

Yup, the 1000 update included a pretty signifigant shift to the east:

http://img34.imageshack.us/img34/3382/ritamodel022fe.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[sts60]

Good luck to all of you on the coast, from Corpus to Galveston and Houston to Beaumont and points east.

Me, I self-evacuated from Webster (I used to live off NASA Road One, then El Dorado Blvd). Six years ago. I must be prescient. :-)

Seriously, y'all be safe.

[George]

From all of us here in Mississippi, THANKS! :evil:
Are you saying you have had your quota? :razz:

My future son-n-law is a Seabee now in Gulfport. They are helping rebuild schools at the moment, I think. Sure hope things get better fast for all of ya'll.

[cyswxman]

Be very wary of the inland flooding, which looks to be quite significant once Rita moves onshore. It may even stop somewhere over east Texas.

[Melusine]

Good luck to all of you on the coast, from Corpus to Galveston and Houston to Beaumont and points east.

Me, I self-evacuated from Webster (I used to live off NASA Road One, then El Dorado Blvd). Six years ago. I must be prescient. :-)

Seriously, y'all be safe.
Thanks Sts60. :) Good luck to all in harm's way. I hope those who decided to get on the highways have gotten far enough by now and are not suffering in the gridlock and heat. A lot of people have given up travelling, because they are rightly scared of being caught in their cars on the road, though there's all of tomorrow to travel and they have opened some of the inbound lanes. At this point one needs to make up their mind as to stay or go. I'm not so worried about the flooding in most of Houston as much as the wind. So much signage and potential projectiles...windows have broken in lesser storms from little twisters that pop down. Let's hope this thing abates some more. I hate to will it towards Louisiana some more, but this is such a populated area.

The Gulf appears to be getting the pounding that Florida got last year--who's next?

Again, stay safe everybody.

[Lord Jubjub]

The East Coast?

Next year, we present Hurricane Omega--due to hit Cat 5 on Dec 23rd. :evil:

[collegeguy]

Hurricane Rita may have a great impact on the oil refineries and processing, but there are already GLP-like people spreading paranioa. Look at this article:

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/092105_rita_storm.shtml

It caught my attention since I saw someone post a link from this site in the oil depletion thread.

[HenrikOlsen]

The East Coast?

Next year, we present Hurricane Omega--due to hit Cat 5 on Dec 23rd. :evil:
Next year the 15th Tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be called Oscar, not Omega.

For Atlantic hurricanes there are 6 lists of names (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml) that are used in rotation one each year. If a storm is so deadly or costly that reuse of the name is inappropriate the name is retired and another put in the list.

I guess that's going to happen with Katrina and possibly to Rita as well, though I hope it won't be needed.

[Lord Jubjub]

Next year the 15th Tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be called Oscar, not Omega.

For Atlantic hurricanes there are 6 lists of names (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml) that are used in rotation one each year. If a storm is so deadly or costly that reuse of the name is inappropriate the name is retired and another put in the list.

I guess that's going to happen with Katrina and possibly to Rita as well, though I hope it won't be needed.

After they get through the 21 names on the list, they start in on the Greek alphabet. Omega is the last letter of said list. ;)

Furthermore, I really don't want to have the situation where we start retiring Greek letter names. . . :evil:

[HenrikOlsen]

I missed the point of your joke as I had forgotten about the extension.

[Launch window]

the European sat has some info
http://www.esa.int/esaCP/SEM4628X9DE_index_1.html#subhead2
Envisat and ERS-2 show Hurricane Rita

bus fire
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9449949/
Rita evacuees from Houston burnt to death :(
Dallas County Fire Marshal's office told NBC News that 24 were killed in the tragedy.

[Doodler]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9438536/

New Orleans is back underwater...

[Cylinder]

The real problem will occur if Rita actually stalls over south Arkansas or north Louisiana and delivers the expected 30 inches of rain. That would send a flood crest down the Quachita, Red and Arkansas rivers down to New Orleans' weakened levee systems and could possibly even affect areas of NOLA untouched by Katrina's storm surge. That would be the worse-case scenario.

[Cylinder]

Yup. We are forcecast 20+ inches of rain here in south Arkansas if Rita stalls. With the track shifting ever eastward, I worry that the worst of the inland flooding could happen right here. I have my generator primed, plenty of supplies and live on a nice hill, so things should be OK for me.

I'll be pulling our boats from the Quachita river camp this afternoon.

[Doodler]

MSNBC is reporting Rita's down to a Category 3 with 125 mph winds...

[ToSeek]

At this point I'm more concerned about Rita stalling than about the effects of coming ashore. I hope that those who evacuated headed somewhere other than northeast Texas.

[Sam5]

Live news reports today are showing levees breaking again and water is flooding back into New Orleans.

It is going to cost a lot of money to fix that city. Either by raising it up, by building houses on stilts, or by replacing the low dirt levees with high concrete ones.

And later today/tonight many of the oil refineries and cities of Southeast Texas will be hit by the new hurricane.

They had about 1.2 million people in the New Orleans area, and now about 2 million in the South Texas area. The refugees are having to be distributed all around the US.

I wonder what would happen if all 8 million people suddenly had to evacuate New York?

[Sam5]

I just did some measuring on a map, and the area covered by these two storms, with houses damaged, trees down, power out, flood, wind, etc. looks to me to be about 3 times the size of all of England.

[Jim]

Hello from Lewisville!

We made the decision to cut out late Wednesday after boarding up. Caught about three hours sleep and then hit the road at 3:30am Reached Lewisvlle just shy of 18 hours later. (It's normally a 5 hour drive, with stops to visit the Russell Stover factory store and Woody's Smokehouse.) Our five cats and two dogs also made it, although some of them may be contemplating mayhem on us. (Not everyone was as lucky. At least one person's pet - a dog - died from dehydration; daytime temps were in the high 90s.)

As you might suspect, traffic was terrible. We made what proved to be a wise desicion and took 59 north, cutting across to Conroe and joining 45 after they had opened the southbound lanes to northbound traffic.

We stopped for gas about four times, but only the last station still had gas to pump. That took 40 minutes.

There were hundreds of folks stopping by the side of the road to picnic, sleep, walk their dogs, or just catch a break from driving. There were also a few abandoned cars. I hear that five people died on 59 going toward Lufkin; the heat got them.

Houston Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Bob Echels deserve every kudo there is for their handling first of the Katrina evacuees and now Rita. It's amazing watching them together. White is a Dem; Echels, a Rep. Yet, they form (and formed around them) a very effective team. Neither will try to claim full credit for the successes; neither will let the other take full blame for the problems. Once this is over, I say let them reorganize FEMA. Then Congress. (Does the Constitution allow for a shared presidency?)

I am very upset with Guv Perry for his remark that folks should have heeded the advice to fill their tanks before leaving, so if they ran out of gas, that was poor planning on their parts. I guess he doesn't realize how much gas you can burn caught in total gridlock for 12 hours. Fortunately, the folks who know how to handle these situations got some gas to the stranded motorists. No, not FEMA or the Guard, although both joined in later. TxDot had crews cruising the evac routes with water and gas. God bless the Texas Department of Transportation, and the Department of Public Safety. They had folks blocking the freeway ramps so 45, 10, and 59 could become outbound on both sides.

There have been other heroes, too. One woman was pulling a trailer with her horse when her truck broke down. The driver of a semi tractor pulled her to the side of the road and stayed with her until another motorist could hook her trailer to his truck and continue their trip.

One fellow in Conroe, seeing the plight of those running short on gas and with most stations out, drained the 50 gal tank on his boat and offered the gas to stranded motorists. When that was gone, he recruited his neighbors to help out.

Considering the number of people on the roads and the stress of the situation, I was impressed with people's conduct. I had folks passing me on the shoulder, but only two or three tried to cut in front without "asking". One woman got mad at a driver who did that to her and started yelling at him; a deputy sheriff calmed her down.

And it looks as though Houston will be spared the worst. Rita is losing strength and moving to the east. We may have something left when we get home.

But, that's the next nightmare.

2.5 million people evacuated the Houston-Galveston area; next week, they'll be going home.

Imagine taking a five pound sack of sugar, cutting half a dozen small holes in the top, and pouring the contents out through those holes.

Now imagine putting all that sugar back into that bag through those same holes.

[Sam5]

Jim, Interesting report, thanks.

[Launch window]

The real problem will occur if Rita actually stalls over south Arkansas or north Louisiana and delivers the expected 30 inches of rain. That would send a flood crest down the Quachita, Red and Arkansas rivers down to New Orleans' weakened levee systems and could possibly even affect areas of NOLA untouched by Katrina's storm surge. That would be the worse-case scenario.


Hurricane Rita has caused significant flooding in parts of Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas this morning
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/12730263.htm

[JohnD]

All,
Just for my information - why does FEMA include ice, as well as clean water, in the stores that it has ready to bring into the devastated areas? Seems trivial to an ignorant Britisher.
John

[Eta C]

Well, if power's out and refridgerators aren't working ice could come in handy to preserve perishable foods. Also, although fall has started, it's still hot on the gulf coast, so ice could help cool off some spaces.

[Melusine]

Hello from Lewisville!

We made the decision to cut out late Wednesday after boarding up. Caught about three hours sleep and then hit the road at 3:30am Reached Lewisvlle just shy of 18 hours later. (It's normally a 5 hour drive, with stops to visit the Russell Stover factory store and Woody's Smokehouse.) Our five cats and two dogs also made it, although some of them may be contemplating mayhem on us. (Not everyone was as lucky. At least one person's pet - a dog - died from dehydration; daytime temps were in the high 90s.)


Houston Mayor Bill White and Harris County Judge Bob Echels deserve every kudo there is for their handling first of the Katrina evacuees and now Rita. It's amazing watching them together. White is a Dem; Echels, a Rep. Yet, they form (and formed around them) a very effective team. Neither will try to claim full credit for the successes; neither will let the other take full blame for the problems. Once this is over, I say let them reorganize FEMA. Then Congress. (Does the Constitution allow for a shared presidency?)

I am very upset with Guv Perry for his remark that folks should have heeded the advice to fill their tanks before leaving, so if they ran out of gas, that was poor planning on their parts. I guess he doesn't realize how much gas you can burn caught in total gridlock for 12 hours. Fortunately, the folks who know how to handle these situations got some gas to the stranded motorists. No, not FEMA or the Guard, although both joined in later. TxDot had crews cruising the evac routes with water and gas. God bless the Texas Department of Transportation, and the Department of Public Safety. They had folks blocking the freeway ramps so 45, 10, and 59 could become outbound on both sides.

Jim, glad to know you, your family and pets are OK. Watching the reports of people stuck in gridlock, the bus fire with the senior citizens, and sadly, one guy who shot his horses he was trailing, was worrisome, to say the least. I hope JR Keller and the board member who works a JSC got through all the traffic OK, too and won't rush back since gas is still a problem. I was going to try to go to San Antonio, but gave up on the idea, especially as I have two cats, and they didn't take it very well going a short drive from where I live....one was howling in a way I've never heard before. It turned out OK; I live near the Galleria, my apartment is fine, got home fine, Kemah and Clear Lake are not in bad shape, I obviously have electricity and even Galveston is for the most part OK, save the fires and some damage to buildings. It doesn't look any worse in this area than when we have bad thunderstorms and heavy winds. We got lucky! We also got very little rain in Southwest Houston--there are no puddles to speak of. I feel badly for LA, though, and east Texas. Poor New Orleans has just gotten such a beating.

I agree with your comments about White and Eckels--hey, I voted for White, he's a decent guy, and Judge Eckels isn't too bad either...forget Perry, the less said, the better. ;-)

Hope your trip home is safe and sound and all is well with your house. Some people are going to have issues with finding their abandoned cars--towns are handling the problem differently. Those who are going to have to pay to get them are going to be mighty angry; hopefully the city will reimburse them.

One pleasant note: last night around 6:00 pm we witnessed an absolutely beautiful large rainbow from Stafford, as well as a pretty sunset. I kept pointing the rainbow out to the kids that were there, but everyone was saying, "Don't point at the rainbow, it's bad luck!" Ok....I never heard that one. Not being one bit superstitious I kept pointing at it anyway, and considering that there was no damage in the area, I hope they give up on this odd idea. :-)

edit: capitalization

[Melusine]

Jim, Interesting report, thanks.
BTW, Sam5, New Mexico is looking better every day. ;-)

[Wolverine]

Not so much as a drop of rain locally; it didn't even cloud over here. I wonder how the local residents who were out panic-buying the other day feel now.

[Jim]

An in-law of ours - who happens to be a former Harris County deputy sheriff - was good enough to check our house... some limbs down, a section of cedar fence that was due replacing anyway fell down, but that seems to be it. And we have water and electricity.

In general, Houston-Galveston got very lucky; not so our neighbors to the east.

Apparently, Houston will not charge for towing and storage of vehicles they removed after about 7:00am this morning; they will charge for those removed before then... an estimated 590. Owners are being told to ask FEMA to reimburse the cost.

White and Eckels are asking folks to return in stages starting tomorrow. There are already reports of gridlock where highways from San Antonio and Austin converge. And there is still a very limited supply of gas available, although that could change quickly once a distributor in Pasadena gets his pumps running again.

[Gillianren]

congratulations on getting off so lightly! I knew quite a few people when I was growing up who lost chimneys they'd intended to take down anyway to earthquakes; the feeling must be the same for your fence. it would've been neater if you'd taken it down yourself, but at least it's down, right?

I have to admit, it took me a second to realize that you meant Pasadena, TX, because I went to high school in Pasadena, CA. do you know where the name of the one in Texas comes from?

[Sam5]

BTW, Sam5, New Mexico is looking better every day. ;-)

Lol, yeah. And I moved out here from south Mississippi. I called my friends for two weeks before their phone lines started working again. The power has been out for some of them for about 3 weeks. Most of them were about 90 miles north of the coast.

Another lady was on the coast, but she evacuated and spent 12 days in northern Alabama. Her house made it ok, but others in the neighborhood were destroyed by water. I think her house is on slightly high ground.

Now, I'm at about 5,000 feet. Not too much wind. No floods. No earthquakes. Some chance of a rare 1 or 2-week blizzard each winter, but I keep plenty of food in the winter. I can melt the snow if the water system goes out. I'm about 2 miles from a clean river if there is no snow. If the gas goes out I can cut down some small trees for firewood. Not too much can happen here.

In the '70s I moved from San Francisco (earthquakes) to Los Angeles (earthquakes) to Mississippi (tornadoes and hurricanes). Now I'm here and I like it.

[Sam5]

Well, if power's out and refridgerators aren't working ice could come in handy to preserve perishable foods. Also, although fall has started, it's still hot on the gulf coast, so ice could help cool off some spaces.

(Psst, it's a secret, and I shouldn't tell you, but we can't stand our Jack Daniels and coke without ice. Don't tell FEMA or the media.)

[Lord Jubjub]

One pleasant note: last night around 6:00 pm we witnessed an absolutely beautiful large rainbow from Stafford, as well as a pretty sunset.

I was in sheltering in the industrial park in Sugarland. Absolutely perfect 180 degree arch. There was even a double if you looked closely. Hope those pictures turned out nice. . .

[jrkeller]

Well I made it Waco, however, my experience was not as delightful as Jim's.

I left my home home in Nassau Bay (Very South Houston) at 2:15am and by 10:00 pm I had made it to Conroe. That's 50 miles in 20 hours. In the hot afternoon, I went 2 miles in 4 hours. I found the drivers to be better mannered than usual. Lots of people sharing what they had with other who didn't. I spent six hours in my mother's truck/SUV sleeping in a Walmart parking lot after being awake for 42 straight hours. At four in the morning I left, and made OK time for the next two hours, about 25 miles an hour. After that I made good time as the road where fairly clear. I got off I-45 at Mexia (birthplace of one of the greatest and most beautiful Texas actresses (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Nicole_Smith)) and headed to Waco and got there about 10:00 am. Right now I'm staying at my college roommate's home while he is out of town. I'll probably leave on Monday.

Unlike the other posters, I think Mayor White's and Judge Eckels execution of the plan was very poor. They didn't approve changing the inbound lanes to outbound lanes until 9:00 am, even though the first evacuations started at 6:00pm the day before and the order to evacuate was given days before. The HOV (High Occupancy Vehicle) Lane was still an inbound on Thursady. What really mad me angry was the both of these men gave a press conference at 5:00pm saying that things were going great and that they knew how we felt being stuck in our cars on the hot freeway.

Let' see. You haven't been in a car for four hours going 0.5 miles an hour, where the outside temperature is 100+ degrees. Not to mention all the folks who had kids, pets, etc with them. Things didn't go well either. Somehow they forgot that gas stations also closed up to avoid the hurricane. One gas station I stopped at, was boarded up and closed till Monday. Supposedly, the state had gas tankers on the road, but I never saw one. Of course I'm a little angry. I think the plan looked good on paper, but it was never tested.

My ex-wife returned to Houston this afternoon and reported that the damages to the area were minimal mostly broken branches. According to the local weather sites, wind speeds never topped 40 mph.

[Sam5]

This reminds me of some things I learned back in the 1950s. President Eisenhower was promoting his new idea of an “Interstate Highway System” which was to be based on the German Autobahn design. The story put out in the media in those days was that the new Interstate System would be wide 4-lane highways, some elevated, that could be used for cross-country travel, but its primary mission would be for rapid troop movement and quick evacuation of cities in case of a Soviet a-bomb attack.

I also recall that the original Interstate highways back in the ‘60s and ‘70s were very efficient and fast paced.

What seems to have happened over the years is that the cities have filled up with more an more people, so that today we need 8-lane and even 10-lane highways for quick evacuation, instead of just 4-lane highways.

Now, even though we are living in “modern times”, we are actually back where we were in the early 1950s, regarding our highways, because we don’t have enough wide highways for our cities to be evacuated properly.

While we went from a lot of 2-lane to 4-lane highways in the ‘60s, and to 6-lanes in the ‘70s and ‘80s, now we need to go to 8-lanes and 10-lanes.

With a clever evacuation plan, with routes published in local newspapers, we were able to evacuate Mobile, Alabama, out to 50 miles or more, in less than 3 hours in 1953, and that was mostly on old 2-lane highways. Traffic moved rapidly and there were no major stalls or people running out of gas.

Back then, the plan worked out ahead of time was to have people in different neighborhoods evacuate first. The outer neighborhoods around the outer perimeter of the city started evacuating first. Then 10-15 minutes later the neighborhoods closer into the core of the city started evacuating, then the inner city started evacuating.

Back in those days the citizens were a little more orderly and the government people (local and federal) were a little more clever and experienced (probably because many of them had been involved in planning troop movements in Europe and the Orient during WW II).

Now we’ve got federal and local people who never were in any war, who never had any experience moving large numbers of troops or citizens, and the Mayors and Governors just say, “Quick! Everybody evacuate!” So everyone in every city nearest the coast tries to drive out fast, and then they all got stuck in hours and hours of stalled traffic. Looks to me like the Galveston evacuees got stuck in rush-hour Houston traffic, while Houston was still trying to carry on business like on a normal day. My opinion is that Houston should have been evacuate first, and Galveston a day later, or Houston businesses and schools should have been shut down early so that Galveston people could drive through Houston quickly without running into a lot of local Houston traffic.

[Jim]

Hi, JR! Glad you made it out okay, even if it wasn't a pleasant trip. Hope your trip back is better.

One of my co-workers was on the plant ride out crew and stayed behind; her husband evac'd to San Antonio with their two cats. It took him 20 hours to get there, but only 4.5 to get back home to Seabrook. (We'd go back today, but the pets are in a kennel that is closed Sundays.)

TxDOT made the decision on counterflow on the highways. It was something they apparently had considered several times during previous drills and events, but kept avoiding. It cannot be done too early because it disrupts normal traffic; and when it is done, it is very manpower intensive (there was at least one DPS or TxDOT vehicle with two people at every ramp along I45 from The Woodlands to Ennis, about 180 miles). And deciding where and how to conterflow was a problem; FM1488 was selected in Houston because there was construction going on there and the barricades and equipment to move them were available... same for the merge point at Ennis.

As for which areas to evac first, that's based on the position and time of estimated landfall. Those along the coast needed to be long gone by late Thursday; if Houston had evac'd first, they would have had to start about Monday.

TxDOT did take the precaution of closing down the many construction areas on the evac routes; contractors were told to return the highways to a full use condition before any evac was called.

From what I've heard, one problem was that folks decided to leave before it became mandatory. I don't see getting on their case for taking precautions for their and their families' safety. I also don't see any reasonable way to control it.

[Jim]

I have to admit, it took me a second to realize that you meant Pasadena, TX, because I went to high school in Pasadena, CA. do you know where the name of the one in Texas comes from?

"Because of its lush vegetation the site was named for Pasadena, California."

And Pasadena has lots of plants today, although most of them are of the petrochemical variety.

[Sam5]

When they told Galveston people to evacuate first, they sent them right into the middle of the normally-heavy traffic of Houston. They should have evacuated the Houston people first, or ordered them to stay home and not go to work, and they should have blocked all the interstate on-ramps throughout Houston so the Galveston could pass right on through.

But most important, they should not evacuate the half-million people closest to the coast first and then tell them to drive right through the middle of a city of 1 million people who have not yet been evacuated and who are still going about their daily business and regular traffic jams.

Houston should have been evacuated first, and Galveston and the Gulf Coast right behind. The Galveston people should not have had to “leap frog” over the Houston people.

What they did slowed down the north-bound traffic to 2 mph, while the Hurricane was traveling north at 10 mph.

[NASA Fan]

I am finally home. I left Thursday morning for Mansfield TX. (about 50 miles South of Ft. Worth); the trip normally takes about 5 to 6 hours--that day it took me 25 hours (including a 4 hour nap at a truck stop).

I suffered from heat stress along the way, and amongs other things learned that blue power-aide stays blue when you throw it up. (Gross, but I am trying to keep my wits).

One big problem with the evacuation is how many people drove with just one person in the car--I realice that everyone wants to save their own car. I was behind a couple, each in their own SUV. If people would be willing to leave their cars behind and get the family into one car rather than 2 or 3 cars, there would be less congestion on the road.

[Jim]

When they told Galveston people to evacuate first, they sent them right into the middle of the normally-heavy traffic of Houston. They should have evacuated the Houston people first, or ordered them to stay home and not go to work, and they should have blocked all the interstate on-ramps throughout Houston so the Galveston could pass right on through.

First, who picks up the tab for all those folks you have told to stay home from work?

Second, since you told them to stay home, who pumps the gas and mans the stores for the folks evacuating through?

Third, have you any idea how many ramps there are on Houston's freeways? How do you propose to close them all?

Oh, and Houston's traffic is not always bumper-to-bumper. Plan when you leave Galveston and you can make the Woodlands in 90 mins.

But most important, they should not evacuate the half-million people closest to the coast first and then tell them to drive right through the middle of a city of 1 million people who have not yet been evacuated and who are still going about their daily business and regular traffic jams.

Houston should have been evacuated first, and Galveston and the Gulf Coast right behind. The Galveston people should not have had to “leap frog” over the Houston people.

Well, Houston is a bit more than 1 million people, and I'd love to hear your answers to the questions above.

What they did slowed down the north-bound traffic to 2 mph, while the Hurricane was traveling north at 10 mph.

What slowed the evacuation was the very large number of folks who evacuated when they didn't need to leave.

There's an axiom in dealing with hurricanes: "Run from water, hide from wind."
Those threatened by storm surge and/or flooding should pack up and get out. Those facing only winds should hunker down and wait it out.

Problem was, everyone decided to leave. The jam on I10 was caused by folks in west Houston - well above flood danger - trying to leave. (They were not told or even urged to leave; this was their decision.)

[Gillianren]

"Because of its lush vegetation the site was named for Pasadena, California."

And Pasadena has lots of plants today, although most of them are of the petrochemical variety.

ah. the one in California still has plants a-plenty. and an annual parade full of 'em every January.

[Jim]

ah. the one in California still has plants a-plenty. and an annual parade full of 'em every January.

Oh, yeah, I seem to recall something about that... some sort of football game connected with it, IIRC. My college team was in that game last Jan, and will be again this Jan.