The art of spying.

[Rivertree]

It seems that spies need to apply something close to the scientific method. (1) They need to be unbiased, if they want true results. (2) They seek information that either reinforces or contradicts the original hypothesis. & (3) That which is secret can be inferred.

Is this the way effective spying really works? Or is this just a good, marketing page that makes it sound more scientific than it really is?

Stratffor receives some good reviews. Here's there published process.
LONG QUOTE--- LONG QUOTE---LONG QUOTE
Three approaches apply to Stratfor’s basic methodology:

Zero-based analysis - Analysts are required to approach each new area of inquiry with a fresh perspective, free from bias or preconceived notions. This is achieved by combining intense research with the application of the geopolitical paradigm. As a result, our analysis often argues against the conventional wisdom that is rampant among typical “think tanks.”

Anomalies/pattern recognition - The team is focused on a constant pursuit of anomalies that contribute to the evolution of net assessment reports, a virtual model of the world and the interaction of all its parts. Our analysts begin each day by sweeping open sources - including printed and electronic news media, commercial databases, trade publications and human sources - seeking information that either reinforces or contradicts the net assessment or that brings forth new areas of inquiry.

Information architecture - Stratfor’s detailed understanding of where information resides enables the company to gather sensitive information. Stratfor believes that most of the world’s information is readily available through open sources and that which is secret can be inferred. The company, however, is not completely dependent upon digitized and printed information. Analysts also make use of unclassified reports that are not widely available and “proprietary and secret” information - classified and sensitive information that can be obtained legally. END LONG QUOTE

https://www.stratfor.com/about-stratfor/methodology.php

[Rivertree]

Here's Stratfor’s published process.
LONG QUOTE---

I couldn't edit the line where I had written Here's there. I had meant Here's their which wasn't quite perfect either.

[Rivertree]

As a result, our analysis often argues against the conventional wisdom that is rampant among typical “think tanks.”
....
https://www.stratfor.com/about-stratfor/methodology.php


start Wiki Quote
"Some think tanks are clearly aligned with conservative or pro-market approaches to the economy, while others, especially those with an emphasis on social welfare, social equity or environmental outcomes, are viewed as more liberal or left-of-center." end Wiki Quote
from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_tank

As so-called think tanks are typically political in nature, then they're seldom neutral.
:neutral:

[farmerjumperdon]

I'm sure I've mentioned one of my favorite movies here before, The Zero Effect. It's about Daryl Zero, the world's greatest private eye. His foundation for uncovering truth - mastering the Two Obs, observation and objectivity.

Very entertaining flick.

[korjik]

It seems that spies need to apply something close to the scientific method. (1) They need to be unbiased, if they want true results. (2) They seek information that either reinforces or contradicts the original hypothesis. & (3) That which is secret can be inferred.

Is this the way effective spying really works? Or is this just a good, marketing page that makes it sound more scientific than it really is?

Stratffor receives some good reviews. Here's there published process.
LONG QUOTE--- LONG QUOTE---LONG QUOTE
Three approaches apply to Stratfor’s basic methodology:

Zero-based analysis - Analysts are required to approach each new area of inquiry with a fresh perspective, free from bias or preconceived notions. This is achieved by combining intense research with the application of the geopolitical paradigm. As a result, our analysis often argues against the conventional wisdom that is rampant among typical “think tanks.”

Anomalies/pattern recognition - The team is focused on a constant pursuit of anomalies that contribute to the evolution of net assessment reports, a virtual model of the world and the interaction of all its parts. Our analysts begin each day by sweeping open sources - including printed and electronic news media, commercial databases, trade publications and human sources - seeking information that either reinforces or contradicts the net assessment or that brings forth new areas of inquiry.

Information architecture - Stratfor’s detailed understanding of where information resides enables the company to gather sensitive information. Stratfor believes that most of the world’s information is readily available through open sources and that which is secret can be inferred. The company, however, is not completely dependent upon digitized and printed information. Analysts also make use of unclassified reports that are not widely available and “proprietary and secret” information - classified and sensitive information that can be obtained legally. END LONG QUOTE

https://www.stratfor.com/about-stratfor/methodology.php

Having been a signals intelligence analyst and being a scientist, I would have to say that the training is similar. pattern recognition and data aquisition are vital to prove your hypothisis, and bias is the bane of all analysis.

[HenrikOlsen]

And always remember that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

[Rivertree]

And always remember that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.


Dr. Carl Sagan quotes ?

:question:

[farmerjumperdon]

"Absess of evidence is not evidence of absess."

- my dentist.

[Ozzy]

Advice of evidence is not evidence of advice!??

[HenrikOlsen]

Dr. Carl Sagan quotes ?

:question:
I head it used as a motto of military intelligence during WWII, coined after an incident where there had been no evidence of enemy positions, so they send their troops straight into a forestfull of enemy tanks.

[mugaliens]

The correct term is "field operative," and they could care less about scientific method. All they care about is handling their contacts, retrieving the information that's required, and passing it on to the analysts while avoiding detection.

You might remember the movie with Paul Newman and Brad Pitt - quite an interesting piece of work. Hollywood, to be sure, but very accurate on many other accounts, including the politics involved.

[ngc3314]

Intelligence analysis, as distinct from fieldwork, does require deep critical thinking skills. I have found this gem from the CIA Reading Room (https://www.cia.gov/csi/Psychology/PsychofIntelNew.pdf) to be a great overview of how we come with all sorts of built-in thinking patterns which have to be carefully controlled or circumvented to do science or good intelligence work. I'm particularly struck by the fallacy of false confirmation. Some of the author's pointers are a lot like rules for doing good science (some of which I've seen given in science-fiction stories - ideas should come wth ways to distinguish them from competitors, for example, and by far the most valuable evidence is the kind which actually distinguishes available hypotheses.

[Bob]

Where are those darned Iraqi WMD's anyhow?

[Roy Batty]

You might remember the movie with Paul Newman and Brad Pitt - quite an interesting piece of work. Hollywood, to be sure, but very accurate on many other accounts, including the politics involved.
Do you mean Spy Game (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0266987/) with Robert Redford and Brad Pitt? An entertaining film.

[BigDon]

Sadly, field work tends to be an ugly and squalid business.

I knew two different people who quit it at great inconvience to themselves. (Legal ramifications) Their stories both had the same basic plot so I believe them as they were widely seperated by time and place. One story ran like this, this guy was asked to break into and plant a kilo of heroin in the apartment of a communist American ex-patriot living in Germany. The local law inforcement is then called. This offence will get you 20 years with no parole. They are then offered "alternatives" to prison. The guy couldn't sleep at night anymore after doing this a couple of times, even if these people were "enemies of the state".

[HenrikOlsen]

Ah, crash drafted to serve the bigger good.

Though it may be slightly off topic, I can recommend Tim Power's Declare for some nasty insights into the way people work in that field.

[Roy Batty]

Ah, crash drafted to serve the bigger good.

Though it may be slightly off topic, I can recommend Tim Power's Declare for some nasty insights into the way people work in that field.
Ooh, I'd forgotten that author. Have only read two of his earlier books before but found them enjoyable (if wierd!), so I will check his later stuff out.
Btw I think it's Tim Powers' Declare (looks around for the Gillianren apostrophe police:shifty::))

[Gillianren]

You rang?

If the author's name is Powers, it is either Powers' or Powers's, with the former preferred in the UK and the latter in the US.

[mugaliens]

Hi, BigDon - I agree with you that I'd never be able to stomach setting innocents up for a fall. I don't care what the stakes are - the ruining of innocent human lives isn't worth it. I've have absolutely no qualms about risking my own like to pin an earned account on someone else, however, again, providing they earned it.

It's an integrity thing. Hope you understand.

[Graybeard6]

You rang?

If the author's name is Powers, it is either Powers' or Powers's, with the former preferred in the UK and the latter in the US.

His name is, indeed, Tim Powers>

[HenrikOlsen]

And I plead posting while distracted.

[Roy Batty]

You rang?

If the author's name is Powers, it is either Powers' or Powers's, with the former preferred in the UK and the latter in the US.
:lol:
Really? Powers's just looks plain wrong in my view. But I do admire your 'policing', keeps me on my toes at any rate Ma'am ;)

Sorry, please resume the normal thread now :)

[Gillianren]

:lol:
Really? Powers's just looks plain wrong in my view. But I do admire your 'policing', keeps me on my toes at any rate Ma'am ;)

Thank you. Every time it's mentioned, I get a little queasy feeling that it's just making everyone mad at me.

[LurchGS]

:lol:
Really? Powers's just looks plain wrong in my view. But I do admire your 'policing', keeps me on my toes at any rate Ma'am ;)

Sorry, please resume the normal thread now :)

Gillian can have the apostrophe.. I'll take the comma... like the one that's NOT in front of "Ma'am" :)

[Gillianren]

Yes, but the ellipsis has three periods to it, you know!

[BigDon]

Thank you. Every time it's mentioned, I get a little queasy feeling that it's just making everyone mad at me.

I don't mind. Especialy if you catch me at spelling errors. Sometimes Its because I'm typing too fast and other's times its just being a Bozo. (Please deflate your shoes before boarding the bus.) I know I keep sticking an "i" in stable and I should know how to spell simular but I keep blowing that one too.

[HenrikOlsen]

Yes, but the ellipsis has three periods to it, you know!
Unless it’s denoted by a long dash (the one longer than the m-dash), as is most often seen in interruption…
He started “But ―” “But me no buts,” roared the drill instructor.
…omissions…
“Don’t blame me when the s― hits the fan”
…and so on.

Some styles require an ellipsis to be three periods with no space between them, some require non-breaking space between them; some that it’s preceded by one space, some that it isn’t and some require an ellipsis at the end of a sentence to be succeded, or even preceded, by a period.

[Gillianren]

The ellipsis is the name for the three periods thingy. I prefer the spaces aesthetically, and the period is always required after one if it's at the end of a sentence, because an ellipsis is no more a sentence-ender than a comma is.

No, as I've said, I do let a lot of typos go, and I do issue pretty much absolute forgiveness for people who are either dyslexic or non-native speakers. However, there are certain words ("astronaught") that I will always correct, and if you're correcting someone else's grammar, it is wise to be sure that your own is above reproach.

[HenrikOlsen]

The ellipsis is the name for the three periods thingy.
Ellipsis is the omission from a sentence of words needed to complete a construction or sense.
In typography it is denoted either with the three dots, a long dash or three asterisks.
The last fell out of use at the beginning of last century and the dash is mainly used in England ans is also becoming archaic, so the three dots thingy is now the most common way to indicate ellipsis.

As for ways of using it, I tend to think that when there are multiple styleguides and they disagree, the "correct" use is the one in the styleguide of the people who're paying your salary, unless you're paid to revise the styleguide.

[Gillianren]

Ellipsis is the omission from a sentence of words needed to complete a construction or sense.

Yes. However, grammatically speaking, the technical name for three periods used to elide a sentence (because it has to have a name) is an ellipsis.

[HenrikOlsen]

I think we've come to a consensus.
And totally derailed the thread doing it.

[Rivertree]

Sadly, field work tends to be an ugly and squalid business.

I knew two different people who quit it at great inconvience to themselves. (Legal ramifications) Their stories both had the same basic plot so I believe them as they were widely seperated by time and place. One story ran like this, this guy was asked to break into and plant a kilo of heroin in the apartment of a communist American ex-patriot living in Germany. The local law inforcement is then called. This offence will get you 20 years with no parole. They are then offered "alternatives" to prison. The guy couldn't sleep at night anymore after doing this a couple of times, even if these people were "enemies of the state".


Was he bothered by his conscience or the apparent fact that people ought to want to kill him?

:boohoo:

[BigDon]

Hi Rivertree, That first person was said to be 23 year old American woman who was a communist. Thats all he would say about it. Its not illegal to be a commie, even in this country. And she was in Germany. No Russian ever flew a plane into any of my buildings. So there are enemies and then there are enemies.

Let's leave it at that.

[ToSeek]

Yes. However, grammatically speaking, the technical name for three periods used to elide a sentence (because it has to have a name) is an ellipsis.

And on my Macintosh, it's its own character.

(And how's that for the difference between "it's" and "its"? :D )

[HenrikOlsen]

And on my Macintosh, it's its own character.

(And how's that for the difference between "it's" and "its"? :D )
And so it was in my post (http://www.bautforum.com/showpost.php?p=792852&postcount=27).

There’s a difference between “…” and “...”.
ALT-0133 on Windows

[Gillianren]

And on my Macintosh, it's its own character.

(And how's that for the difference between "it's" and "its"? :D )

It's beautiful.

Yes, I know I can make it its own character, but it looks all smushed to me.

[Roy Batty]

ALT-0133 on Windows
So, since the thread has derailed yet again:), can I ask how that works? I tried it on mine & the screen leapt all over the place after about the 2nd digit!

[mugaliens]

Do you mean Spy Game (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0266987/) with Robert Redford and Brad Pitt? An entertaining film.

Oops - my bad. Yes, it was Redford, looking as old in Vietnam as he did later in the movie during the "present day."

[Roy Batty]

Nooo! what have you done Mugaliens? You've brought the thread back on topic :doh::)

[Rivertree]

Hi Rivertree, That first person was said to be 23 year old American woman who was a communist. Thats all he would say about it. Its not illegal to be a commie, even in this country. And she was in Germany. No Russian ever flew a plane into any of my buildings. So there are enemies and then there are enemies.

Let's leave it at that.

No women fly planes into buildings either. She sounds like a political target to me.

[Gillianren]

Two women did try to kill a US President in the 20th Century, though. And one was convicted and executed (probably unfairly) for conspiracy to assassinate a US President in the 19th. However, Muslim fundamentalists aren't terribly likely to let "mere" women in on their plans.

[HenrikOlsen]

So, since the thread has derailed yet again:), can I ask how that works? I tried it on mine & the screen leapt all over the place after about the 2nd digit!
With numlock on and the cursor in an input field.

[mugaliens]

However, Muslim fundamentalists aren't terribly likely to let "mere" women in on their plans.

Probably not.

[Roy Batty]

Doesn't stop them strapping explosives to themselves (women) though does it? :(

With numlock on and the cursor in an input field.
That's what I was doing, but yes got it now, it just doesn't seem to work in this forum editor for me.

Edit: Ok, it works here in IE… but not Firefox... :(

[Rivertree]

The women tend to be on the victims list, not the criminals IMHO.

http://www.fbi.gov/wanted.htm

Two women did try to kill a US President in the 20th Century, though.

Of poisoning and/or witchcraft. Poison affair info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poison_affair

Madame de Brinvilliers was notorious for her gallantries and for poisoning her father, brother, and two sisters in order to inherit their property.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marie-Madeleine-Marguerite_d%27Aubray%2C_Marquise_de_Brinvilliers

[Gillianren]

Okay, I'll bite. What on Earth does poisoning have to do with Sarah Jane Moore and Lynette Fromme?

[Roy Batty]

The women tend to be on the victims list, not the criminals IMHO.
I wasn't just talking about fundamentalists in America, sorry. Anyway, I'm not continuing this discussion (board rules).

[farmerjumperdon]

The ellipsis is the name for the three periods thingy. I prefer the spaces aesthetically, and the period is always required after one if it's at the end of a sentence, because an ellipsis is no more a sentence-ender than a comma is.

No, as I've said, I do let a lot of typos go, and I do issue pretty much absolute forgiveness for people who are either dyslexic or non-native speakers. However, there are certain words ("astronaught") that I will always correct, and if you're correcting someone else's grammar, it is wise to be sure that your own is above reproach.

Why is that? That would lead to the conclusion that unless someone's grammar is perfect, they should not criticize the grammar of others; and I don't think anybody is perfect. (Just an opinion though).

BTW - "thingy"

[Gillianren]

Why is that? That would lead to the conclusion that unless someone's grammar is perfect, they should not criticize the grammar of others; and I don't think anybody is perfect. (Just an opinion though).

BTW - "thingy"

I'm just saying that if you're pointing out that someone's "grammer" is wrong, you should look to your own first. In part, this is because it's better to be sure that you're right.

Yeah, "thingy" isn't standard. However, it is an acceptable spelling, along with "thingie." It's a technical grammar term, right?

[HenrikOlsen]

It's a metasyntactical variable :)

[Rivertree]

It's a metasyntactical variable :)

Poor grammar or spelling could be a secret code in disguise.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/venona/cipher.html

Code is found at
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/venona/ciph_nf.html

This is a "simple"code.

Hints (quote):
# Find your first letters by looking for the one-letter words, "A" and "I." (If the letter is capitalized and in the middle of a sentence, it's probably an "I.")

# Look for a three-letter combination that repeats throughout the message. Chances are this word is "the."

# A single letter that comes after an apostrophe is probably an "s" or a "t."

# If you're still stuck, try to figure out some of the two-letter words (as, at, if, it, is, of, to, etc.).

[HenrikOlsen]

That one took less than 5 minutes to break, try with a Vigenère instead.

[Gillianren]

Hints (quote):
# Find your first letters by looking for the one-letter words, "A" and "I." (If the letter is capitalized and in the middle of a sentence, it's probably an "I.")

# Look for a three-letter combination that repeats throughout the message. Chances are this word is "the."

# A single letter that comes after an apostrophe is probably an "s" or a "t."

# If you're still stuck, try to figure out some of the two-letter words (as, at, if, it, is, of, to, etc.).

Which is why anyone with any real skill at codes makes blocks of letters, all in caps, and leaves out punctuation.

[Rivertree]

Which is why anyone with any real skill at codes makes blocks of letters, all in caps, and leaves out punctuation.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/nash/

"And a child is more likely to get the sweet or toy it wants if it is crying too loudly to hear your reasoned explanations of why it should not have it."

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/nash/sfeature/sf_dixit.html

"Nash is approached by a government recruiter..., who persuades him to work as an enemy code-breaker.

At some point, Nash realizes that a split has occurred, that what seems real to him is not. The mind that served him so well and so brilliantly is now betraying him."
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2001/12/21/DD12117.DTL&type=movies

[BigDon]

Arrgh, I followed that link to the article, poison affair. Then made the mistake of following the link in that article on the "water cure". If whoever wrote that thinks that the US forces stopped using that one in the American/ Phillipine war is sadly mistaken.

I distinctly remember seeing it used during the Vietnam war. It was shown on the freaking evening TV news for goodness sake. And how do you think we interogate those people in Guantanamo? And its not the people being interogated that I'm worried about so much as whats happening to OUR people doing the interogating.

I don't understand is why nobody remembers that almost all torturers go dangerously insane. I'm not talking about gibbering and crapping themselves, I'm talking about worse. At least by most human standards. Inuring oneself to torturing others does not go away easily. When the war ends that mindset doesn't just go away, poof! Really, that fact came out after WWII when the Soviets quietly had to "put down" a bunch of their interogators after the war.

It was proven again and again in several Middle Eastern and South American conflicts as well. Goverments ending up having to kill their own torturers. This was old news by late 70's. And now its being done under the supervision of psychiatrists. I find the whole situation horrific. (Hippocratic oath anyone?) I'm guessing that the Docs are vain enough to think this won't happen under their supervision. And that they themselves are too educated to fall into that trap.

Talk about not remembering history. Cultures as different as the Germans and the Japanese prove that all some doctors need to perform bestial acts is to receive these orders from somebody they believe has the authority to give them. Thats kind of a convoluted sentence but it conveys what I mean.

Alright, my rant is over.

[Rivertree]

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Torture has been "okay" in Turkey.
Suppression of the press has been "okay" in Turkey.
USA remains good friends with Turkey.
The European Union is (mostly) welcoming Turkey.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I don't think that I'd want to be a spy in Turkey.
If they throw mere news reporters in prison, then I'd hate to see what they do to a real spy.:exclaim:

All politics are aside.