Finding Steve Fossett

[tony873004]

I hope he didn't crash, but if he did, is it possible to find the crash using public satellite data? I see what I think is a short-lived puff of smoke in an image taken at 10:30 am PDT (1 hour 45 minutes after takeoff) when I animate the GOES11 satellite images. This "puff" only lasts 1 frame (1 frame per half hour). If you try this, it is in the 5th frame of the 6-frame animation. In the 3rd frame, there is a bad pixel firing to the 8-o'clock position of the "puff" that will help you locate the "puff".

To verify this, or to tell me I'm crazy, Follow this link:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?STYLE=frames&AREA=pacific/eastern/sierra&PROD=vis&TYPE=ssmi&CURRENT=20070903.1630.goes11.vis.x.sierra.x.jpg&ACTION=Previous_Photos&ANIM_TYPE=Animate&PHOT=yes&NAV=epac_westcoast&CGI=epac_westcoast.cgi&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

Click "Full Sized: (100%) of orig."
In the scroll list, choose these images:

20070903.1800.goes11.vis.x.sierra.x.jpg

through

20070903.1530.goes11.vis.x.sierra.x.jpg

Press "Submit Query"

Look for the small puff of smoke on the image from 1730 (10:30 am PDT). To the best of my ability, lining it up with Google Earth it is at
N 39 18
W 118 18

Looking at Google Earth, there seems to be a lot of military testing in this area, so perhaps there's another explanation.

I made a screen shot. It is in the blue circle in this image:
http://orbitsimulator.com/misc/nevada.GIF

For comparison, look at the smoke from the fire near the Lick Observatory by using images 20070903.2100 through 20070904.0200 . It's southeast of the bottom tip of the San Francisco Bay. There's also at least 2 other fires visible in this animation, one on the California side, and one on the Nevada side, about halfway up the vertical part of the state boundry.

[Nicolas]

Shouldn't that be 1730 instead of 1530? It's not clearly smoke to me. Maybe it's just the sun lighting the surface, maybe it's a small cloud like the other cous on the images. Maybe it's smoke. I don't know.

[tony873004]

Shouldn't that be 1730 instead of 1530? Anyway, I can't see the puf in either image.
You have to animate all the images between 1530 and 1800. The puff is at 1730. By itself, nothing stands out if you look at 1730 by itself. This dynamic feature only reveals itself through animation. It's very subtle, you have to look hard. I'll try to make an animated GIF to post here. It doesn't look like rugged terrain, so hopefully he got out before things started smoking.

[Nicolas]

I've seen it now, but I couldn't say this is smoke rather than a cloud or surface. There's quite some cloud formation going on in the area anyway.

[tony873004]

I've seen it now, but I couldn't say this is smoke rather than a cloud or surface. There's quite some cloud formation going on in the area anyway.
I noticed the clouds. But they seem more white than the "puff", and the clouds seem to be building, while this comes and goes. Also, the clouds seem to be forming over mountain ridges. The "puff" is at the northern edge of a dry lake bed.

Here's the animated GIF. The real animation is more convincing, since data is lost in the GIF conversion. The bad pixel I called a "guide pixel" did not make it through the GIF process. The top image is a still image of the area. I put a red dot on the "puff". The bottom image is 4 frames of animation.
http://orbitsimulator.com/misc/sf1.GIF

http://orbitsimulator.com/misc/sf2.GIF

This is what the area looks like upclose on Google Earth. The puff is just north of the edge of this lake bed:
http://orbitsimulator.com/misc/sf3.GIF

[Nicolas]

Isn't it just the small white patch north of the lakebed that is lit up?

[tony873004]

The bottom image has much more resolution than the animated images, so I can't tell exactly where it is in the bottom image. The white patch north of the lake bed (a smaller lake bed?) seems pretty static. But in the animation on their website (not the animateg GIF I posted), it appears, then disappears, and it looks like a very small version of the larger fires visible if you use the 2nd set of images I list.

But maybe it just seems that way because that's what I'm expecting to see.

[Nicolas]

A light patch of surface may light up for a short period because of the changing sun angle. Not saying this HAS to be what we're seeing, it's just a possibliity.

[mugaliens]

Recommend we merge this with the Steve Fosset thread, already in progress...

[Warren Platts]

Recommend we merge this with the Steve Fosset thread, already in progress...

HELLO, HAS ANYONE PASSED ON TONY'S TIP TO THE CIVIL AIR PATROL?

If not, recommend that we do. . . .

[tony873004]

I called the Minden-Tahoe airport, which is the headquarters for the search. The secretary was very appreciative, and meticulously took notes. She seemed most interested that the timing was right. I e-mailed her the details too.

It seems that they are searching in an area south of my suspected smoke plume, so I'm not sure if they'll use the tip or not, but they certainly know about it.

I'm just curious, has anyone else looked at the animation (not my animated Gif) on the satellite web site? An Nicolas points out, it could be a lot of things. Does it look like a short-lived smoke plume to anyone else?

More carefully counting the pixels, my percieved plume is on the red dot in this Google Earth image:
http://orbitsimulator.com/misc/sf4.GIF

[Bearded One]

Off on a tangent, Mozilla under Mepis Linux wouldn't let me select full sized :(

The option wasn't even there, best it offered was 60%. It worked on a Windows box though, even though that screen is set to a lower resolution :confused:

On the image, maybe I see something, maybe I don't. I need a new prescription badly though.

[01101001]

Reuters: UPDATE 2-Branson hopes Google images help find Fossett (http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=allBreakingNews&storyID=2007-09-05T182230Z_01_N05225935_RTRIDST_0_PEOPLE-FOSSETT-UPDATE-2-PICTURE.XML)

The search for missing U.S. adventurer Steve Fossett resumed on Wednesday as his friend, British billionaire Richard Branson, tried to find him through a satellite mapping service offered by Internet data provider Google.

Branson told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. he was worried that Fossett, who disappeared over the Nevada desert after taking off in a small plane late on Monday, had not activated the aircraft's emergency tracking beacon.


"I'm talking with friends at Google [...] about seeing whether we can look at satellite images over the last four days to see whether they can see which direction he might have been flying and whether they can see any disturbances anywhere that they can pin from space," he said from Barcelona, Spain.

Satellites never did help find Jim Gray and his yacht (http://research.microsoft.com/~Gray/).

[tony873004]

I guess Branson doesn't use the free version of Google Earth :)

It's tough enough to see at 100%, so I wouldn't place much faith in 60%.

As an interesting side note, the Northern California fire I mentioned for comparison at the bottom of my first post is still burning. And the winds have shifted offshore. Check it out by animating the most recent images. It's smoke is passing directly over San Francisco and we're having a blood-red sunset right now.

http://orbitsimulator.com/misc/firesunset.JPG

This was one of those refraction sunsets. The sun didn't completely disappear until 5 minutes after its predicted set time.

[sarongsong]

hmmh---Potrero Hill?

[tony873004]

hmmh---Potrero Hill?
no, the building is one of the Parkmerced Towers, near SFSU. It's about as far from Potrero Hill as you can be and still be in San Francisco :).

It's actually about a mile from my house, but I have a zoom lens.

[Nicolas]

Good thing you called them and they listened. You can't know what the change between images is, I can't know, they can't know, but there is a sudden change and now they know about it. If it turns out to be nothing related to Fossett, at least they'll know where not to look.

[Extravoice]

This was one of those refraction sunsets. The sun didn't completely disappear until 5 minutes after its predicted set time.

OT: But why do my eyes hurt when I look at that photo of the sun, but I can stare at the white background of this window with no trouble at all?

[Nicolas]

Your eyes THINK they hurt (well, your brain thinks your eyes hurt). You want to squeeze your eyes because apparently the white light is so intense it washes out the trees in front of it. Nice effect eh.

[Extravoice]

Your eyes THINK they hurt (well, your brain thinks your eyes hurt). You want to squeeze your eyes because apparently the white light is so intense it washes out the trees in front of it. Nice effect eh.

The human brain is an amazing thing...and yet, so easily tricked.

[Christopher Ferro]

While I find it highly unlikely that a puff of smoke from a plane crash would even register on a GOES image, it is good that they are following up on any possible lead. Good job.

CJSF

[Wojtek]

While I find it highly unlikely that a puff of smoke from a plane crash would even register on a GOES image, it is good that they are following up on any possible lead. Good job.

CJSF

Good day, everyone. As I couldn't report it via mturk.com, maybe you can evaluate my finding ?

open this KML with Google Earth : http://s3.amazonaws.com/fossett/geo-eye.kml

and go to :
38.1426898618,-119.498720891

Isn't that an airplane-like looking object ?

Regards,
Wojtek

[Nicolas]

Not having Gearth here I cannot open the file. I'd just like to add that there are 150 known plane wrecks in the area and the search by aircraft for Fossett turned up 7 unknown wrecks already. But anyway, if you think it looks like a plane, it's interesting "period". I hope another BAUT member has gearth and wants to take a look at what you found. If it takes too long, just report it. They will not be mad if you'd report a known crash site or a bush that looks like a plane. reporting these things is the whole point of the project.

[Warren Platts]

Good day, everyone. As I couldn't report it via mturk.com, maybe you can evaluate my finding ?

open this KML with Google Earth : http://s3.amazonaws.com/fossett/geo-eye.kml

and go to :
38.1426898618,-119.498720891

Isn't that an airplane-like looking object ?

Regards,
Wojtek
I see it but the wingspan is only about 17 feet according to the Google ruler device, whereas the Super Decathalon has a 32 foot wingspan--but maybe the ruler's not that accurate.

Here's the link to "mturk"

HELP FIND STEVE FOSSETT (http://www.mturk.com/mturk/preview?groupId=9TSZK4G35XEZJZG21T60&kw=Flash)

Supposedly it's been updated with new photos taken since Mr. Fossett went missing. Anyone can look.

[Warren Platts]

I take back what I said about the accuracy of the google earth ruler.

Check out the coordinates to this airport:

38°59'53.97"N 119° 9'37.81"W

There's two airplanes. One has a wingspan of 32' (which is the wingspan of the Super Decathalon that Mr. Fossett was flying) and another one of about 36-37' which is the wingspan of a Cessna 172.

[01101001]

Problem solved.

On the Coast to Coast AM site, it is revealed that remote-viewer and anti-scientist Major Ed Dames has provided to the searchers some sort of landing ellipse (works for NASA planetary exploration) for the location of Steve Fossett, somewhat west-northwest of Mono Lake, in the Sierra Mountains, closest city Dardanelle, California.

No, I won't provide a link to the vulture's nonsense.

[Fazor]

Heh, it would be just as helpfull for me to call up the search team and say, "Just wanted to let you know that Mr. Fossett is not in my office here in Lancaster, Ohio."
Oh well.

[KaiYeves]

I've never heard of C2C anywhere but here, and I'm glad.

[Warren Platts]

Check out this possible debris field. It's about 45 feet across, and there's nothing else like it around:

38°05'56.88" N 119°25'06.47" W

Make sure you update your google Earth with the latest KML file for the region in the search area.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/fossett/geoeye-color.kml

[Warren Platts]

Problem solved.

On the Coast to Coast AM site, it is revealed that remote-viewer and anti-scientist Major Ed Dames has provided to the searchers some sort of landing ellipse (works for NASA planetary exploration) for the location of Steve Fossett, somewhat west-northwest of Mono Lake, in the Sierra Mountains, closest city Dardanelle, California.

No, I won't provide a link to the vulture's nonsense.

Here's the link (http://www.coasttocoastam.com/gen/page2200.html?theme=light). . . .

[Nicolas]

Check out this possible debris field. It's about 45 feet across, and there's nothing else like it around:

38°05'56.88" N 119°25'06.47" W

Make sure you update your google Earth with the latest KML file for the region in the search area.

http://s3.amazonaws.com/fossett/geoeye-color.kml

If you've got any reason to assume this may possibly be a crash site, I suggest you inform the people organizing this google earth search rather than waiting for people on BAUT to respond. Just maybe Steve Fossett is sitting there right now waiting to be found, and hours count in that case. They will not sue you if you happen to point out a dead tree or known crash site.

I don't have Gearth, so I can't look now. Maybe posting screenshots is a good idea, so that anyone can look at it. But I'd contact the Gearth search organisation first anyway.

[Warren Platts]

OK OK! But I don't know where to send it!

Meanwhile, check out this airplane (http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h198/bravekn1ght/fossett1.jpg):

Also, you do know that you can download Google Earth for free, right?

And using the mechanical turk thing doesn't require Google Earth, so you can still help out from the comfort of your home in Belgium. :)

[frankuitaalst]

OK OK! But I don't know where to send it!

Meanwhile, check out this airplane (http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h198/bravekn1ght/fossett1.jpg):

Also, you do know that you can download Google Earth for free, right?

And using the mechanical turk thing doesn't require Google Earth, so you can still help out from the comfort of your home in Belgium. :)
Nice , seems like this is still in the air :)
BTW : the MechTurk works fine , also in Belgium ; have already crunched about 1000 Hits , but no Steve Fossett found till now .
As I said before , where are the other 400.000 people in order to get the job done ?
For Nicolas : geef een seintje als je er niet doorkomt .
Frank

[Warren Platts]

I did about a thousand. You have to be careful to not go to fast. I was going about one every other second, and at that last fraction of a second I thought I saw a wing-like structure, but the mechanical turk won't let you go back to reexamine old hits.

[Nicolas]

The problem for me is not the technicalities of Gearth or mechanical turk installation, but the simple fact that I'm often working on other people's PC, on which I won't install anything without asking. :)

It certainly is a plane, appears to be flying unless it crashed really soft :). Maybe it was his plane. Anyway, maybe -if you find where- you should report it just to tell them "there's a plane there, appears to be flying, don't know if it's the type Fossett was flying"

[01101001]

San Jose Mercury: Experts: Dogged determination will find Fossett

(http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_6895267)New technology is leading the way, but commanders and rescue experts say old-fashioned doggedness and a slow, methodical scouring of the harsh Nevada landscape by trained observers provides the best hope for finding millionaire adventurer Steve Fossett, dead or alive.
As the search stretched into its 12th day on Friday, Civil Air Patrol Maj. Cynthia Ryan said the operation may be tedious, but in the end, they usually find what they're looking for.
[...]
Instructions on the Web site give an example of what to look for. One view shows a tiny outline of an airplane, shown in white silhouette.
The problem, skeptics say, is that it's unlikely Fossett's plane is intact.
"I would be surprised if we find it in one piece," Snyder said.
[CAP Major] Ryan said as far as she's concerned, the Internet satellite search is distracting at best.
"I don't mean to sound like a naysayer," she said. "I'm a total geek. I love technology. But in this case, it's a bunch of people trying to do something they don't have the training for."

[01101001]

AP: Organizers to Assess Fossett Search [Monday] (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4Tt3Ok0yMNfSsatpddlmScxyEiQ)

Nearly two weeks after Steve Fossett disappeared in the Nevada desert, authorities plan to assess the rescue operation as hopes dim of finding the adventurer alive.
Crews searched by air and ground Saturday for Fossett, who was last seen on Labor Day. But organizers with the Civil Air Patrol, Nevada National Guard and state emergency management said authorities plan to meet Monday to decide how to proceed with the operation.
Until then, the mission continues, officials said.
"We're still in rescue mode," Maj. Ed Locke of the Nevada Air National Guard said during a press briefing Saturday.

[KaiYeves]

I'm sorry I once compared him to Seto Kaiba. I didn't mean that he was villianous, just that he did lots of things that seem amazing and make us wish we were that rich, not because we want money, but so that we could have those adventures.

[Extravoice]

Sadly, soon it may be "all over" but the conspiracy theories.

[Fazor]

Sadly, soon it may be "all over" but the conspiracy theories.
I don't think it's a conspiracy; I think his wallet was just too heavy and the plane couldn't handle the payload.

Sorry, couldn't help it. Really do hope that they can find him alive; but I think the chances of that are less than slim. It's tragic, but there's a lot worse things that dieing doing something you love after leading such an exciting and interesting life.

[01101001]

AP: Search for Fossett in Nevada Cut Back
(http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4Tt3Ok0yMNfSsatpddlmScxyEiQ)

The search for missing millionaire adventurer Steve Fossett in the rugged and remote high Nevada desert was cut back on Monday. The Civil Air Patrol, which had 20 planes and 60 searchers aloft over the weekend, suspended further flights and left two planes and a small team on standby at the airport here.

"We don't like to do that. It's against our nature to walk away from a search," Maj. Cynthia Ryan of the Nevada CAP said. "But at some point you have diminishing returns."

[01101001]

AP: New Leads in Search for Fossett (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4Tt3Ok0yMNfSsatpddlmScxyEiQ)

Gary Derks, the state Department of Public Safety official in charge of the search, said the Air Force analyzed images picked up by radar and satellite and "picked up what could be Mr. Fossett, his track."
[...]
Derks said the area stretches about 100 miles to the southeast from where Fossett took off Sept. 3, an airstrip on a million-acre ranch owned by hotel mogul Barron Hilton. Maps show the area would include Nevada's remote Silver Peak Range, close to Death Valley National Park in California.

"There's nothing definite, nothing concrete," Derks said. "These are just some hits that we want to track."

[mugaliens]

While Google Earth images are updated fairly regularly for areas of rapid building (neighborhoods) from USGS images to help aid census information, images of rugged mountain terrain might be years out of date unless those who own the satellites and planes searching for Fosset are feeding the information directly to Google Earth.

Unlikely.

Flying over mountainous desert terrain at night is eary. Unless the moon is bright, it's extremely dark. With NVGs, it's highly unlikely Fosset would have been able to even see the desert terrain, much less select a suitable landing site.

[01101001]

While Google Earth images are updated fairly regularly for areas of rapid building (neighborhoods) from USGS images to help aid census information, images of rugged mountain terrain might be years out of date unless those who own the satellites and planes searching for Fosset are feeding the information directly to Google Earth.

Unlikely.

DigitalGlobe (http://www.digitalglobe.com/) owns the satellites and are feeding the images to Google.

AP: Google Helps in Search for Aviator (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jEzmBaeGz1isnfWN50zvmMHVO83Q)

While most of the images used in Google Earth's 3-D tours of the world are anywhere from six months to three years old, the company can request more recent pictures taken from space.
[...]
DigitalGlobe, which supplies much of Google Earth's imagery, confirmed that Google called upon the Longmont, Colo.-based company for help Wednesday. Unfortunately, DigitalGlobe didn't have any pictures available from the area where Fossett took off Monday, said company spokesman Chuck Herring. DigitalGlobe doesn't expect to get any more images from that part of the country again until Saturday.

[sarongsong]

...images of rugged mountain terrain might be years out of date...Not only that possibility, but Nevada is home to a vast array of operational and secret military resources that one might think would be intensively surveilled with the very 'latest and greatest' in technology.
Wonder how things would progress had it been a missing military pilot, vs. a civilian.

[korjik]

Not only that possibility, but Nevada is home to a vast array of operational and secret military resources that one might think would be intensively surveilled with the very 'latest and greatest' in technology.
Wonder how things would progress had it been a missing military pilot, vs. a civilian.

The military pilot would have told everyone where he was going and what route he was taking. Much easier to find that way

[sarongsong]

September 25, 2007
Relying on new leads from Air Force experts, crews...plan to comb a rugged area near Death Valley by air and foot...the Air Force analyzed images picked up by radar and satellite and “picked up what could be Mr. Fossett, his track.”...the area stretches about 100 miles to the southeast from where Fossett took off Sept. 3...Search planes will fly over the area Saturday and Sunday...
San Diego Union-Tribune (http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/nation/20070925-1935-stevefossett.html)3 weeks is a long time...

[KaiYeves]

Is it long enough that we should stop worrying/praying? It is disheartening, but then I think of Lincoln Hall and...

[Nicolas]

Honestly, when we're being realistic:

-the fact that he never managed to set his wristwatch auto beacon, is an indication that there may have been a severe crash in which case he never had a chance.

-the fact that he didn't manage a beacon afterwards could indicate he wasn't capable of doing so, which would extremely limit his chances of surviving 3 weeks

-if he simply can't make a beacon, at least one that is noticed, and he's not significantly wounded, he either couldn't sustain resources in which case he'd have died soon, or he could have managed to find a sustainable way of surviving in which case 3 weeks isn't that long.

So in short, I don't think chances of survival are high, but if he survived say the first 10 days, 3 weeks or a bit more isn't the largest problem. If he was still alive by that time, he knows how to pull it longer too. Certainly Fossett.

I haven't given up all hope, but I don't think chances of finding him alive are high.

[sarongsong]

Is it long enough that we should stop worrying'/praying?...No, not that; what and when did the USAF have their "new leads"?

[soylentgreen]

Not to be insensitive, but I think it's time to start wondering (aloud) just how many other human beings people would go this far out of their way to try to find.

For a guy who is positioned as somewhere between Bear Grylls and Allan Quatermain, there sure is alot of anxiety.

Articles even mention that in the zealous effort to find this intrepid survivalist, they've stumbled across wrecks they didn't even know about...or assumedly bothered looking for as hard. Nice. :rolleyes:

[hhEb09'1]

...or assumedly bothered looking for as hard. Nice. :rolleyes:I suppose that's a possibility--and it may be true--but since they haven't found his, maybe the ones that they have found are just like his: they weren't in the place where they were looking before.

[KaiYeves]

For a guy who is positioned as somewhere between Bear Grylls and Allan Quatermain
So who is the low end of that scale? Grylls or Quatermain?

[01101001]

AP: Fossett Searchers Think They Have Leads (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4Tt3Ok0yMNfSsatpddlmScxyEiQD8S023KO3) October 1

[...] analysis of radar data and satellite images from Sept. 3, the day Fossett disappeared in a small plane, led Air Force technicians to believe they had spotted clues to his route.
[...]
The area being searched was southeast of hotel magnate Barron Hilton's million-acre ranch in western Nevada, where Fossett had been staying. Nothing was found by Sunday afternoon.

[mugaliens]

The military pilot would have told everyone where he was going and what route he was taking. Much easier to find that way

That and they're tracked on radar because they're squawking and fly high enough to appear in the IFR system...

[KaiYeves]

According to AP, Branson announced yesterday that he was giving up the search.
Today, I post in sky blue for Mr. Fossett and his piloting.

[Neverfly]

That's aqua.

[Tucson_Tim]

That's aqua.

And I can barely see it. But maybe that's . . .

[KaiYeves]

Is this easier to see?

[Tucson_Tim]

Yes. Easier. Why don't you just make it easy?

[KaiYeves]

The computer calls this "deep sky blue".

[Tucson_Tim]

The computer calls this "deep sky blue".

I call it "hard to read". But that's OK.

[Neverfly]

The computer calls this "deep sky blue".

I would have thought you would know better than to trust a computer.

ETA: I would consider the blue in my sig lines as a sky blue...

[Neverfly]

I call it "hard to read". But that's OK.

I agree.:p

[Doodler]

Blue sky, black death.

[Fazor]

I prefer to consider my text as 'Wild Mustang with a Hint of Ebony on a Stormy Moonless Shore After the Watchtower Light Went Out Because Henry Got Drunk Again Black'.

[Tucson_Tim]

I prefer to consider my text as 'Wild Mustang with a Hint of Ebony on a Stormy Moonless Shore After the Watchtower Light Went Out Because Henry Got Drunk Again Black'.

After reading that, maybe you should use cyan on white.

[Fazor]

:lol:

[01101001]

The computer calls this "deep sky blue".

Web Content Accessibility Guidelines 1.0 :: Color guidelines (http://www.w3.org/TR/WAI-WEBCONTENT/#gl-color)

2.2 Ensure that foreground and background color combinations provide sufficient contrast when viewed by someone having color deficits or when viewed on a black and white screen.

[KaiYeves]

Sorry. Back to black today.
Still, poor guy.
I was just getting over Irwin.

[01101001]

Sorry. Back to black today.
Still, poor guy.

Thank you. You can say the black is for mourning -- and readability.

He doesn't seem like the type that would have thought "poor me" as he augered in, or deftly landed but without rescue, whatever. I suspect it was more like a classy, "Shoot! It was good."

[publiusr]

This pale blue dot can get quite big when searching for a loved one that's missing.

[KaiYeves]

This pale blue dot can get quite big when searching for a loved one that's missing.
It's all in the scale. If we were only a nanometer high, searching a bathtub would be equally hard.

[mugaliens]

Article (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080923/ap_on_re_us/plane_found)

In 2001, a 24-year-old pilot went down around San Bernardino, CA, in the National Forest. His disappearance spawned "one of the most extensive and high-tech searches in the area's history."

They didn't find his wreckage.

If anyone has ever been there, in and around Big Bear Lake, it's fairly well-populated, unlike the terrain in which Fosset disappeared.

Yet it took seven years to find the wreckage.

It might be 2525 before we find Fosset's wreckage.

[Extravoice]

It might be 2525 before we find Fosset's wreckage.

If man is still alive. ;)

[Extravoice]

Steve Fossett's Belongings Possibly Found in California Forest (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,431307,00.html)

ETA: The items were found near the Nevada state line in Mammoth-Lakes, CA.

[NEOWatcher]

Steve Fossett's Belongings Possibly Found in California Forest (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,431307,00.html)


I just saw that on USAToday (http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-10-01-fossett_N.htm) too and wonder about thier use of "possibly".

found items possibly belonging to missing adventurer Steve Fossett
...
found an ID with Steve Fossett's name on it

I don't know, an ID with his name on it. You don't think it could possibly be his, do you?

And the FOX story:

what appear to be two cards with Fossett's name on them

Appear to be two cards? How can you mistake something as a card?

[Extravoice]

I'm not a master of the English language, but it really annoys me when people who make their living from it (Newscasters, etc.) make obvious mistakes. The Fox thing is silly, but I've seen & heard much worse.

[Sam5]

I just saw that on USAToday (http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-10-01-fossett_N.htm) too and wonder about thier use of "possibly".

I don't know, an ID with his name on it. You don't think it could possibly be his, do you?

And the FOX story:

Appear to be two cards? How can you mistake something as a card?

I think the headline means this could also possibly be a hoax.

[NEOWatcher]

I think the headline means this could also possibly be a hoax.
Yes; I usually don't have too much of a problem with headlines. It's the body of the story that I think could have been worded differently, or facts arranged better.
The FOX story mentioned a possible hoax, but the wording was funny.
The USAT story didn't mention why it was only "possible" even though they described the articles.

[01101001]

On the Coast to Coast AM site, it is revealed that remote-viewer and anti-scientist Major Ed Dames has provided to the searchers some sort of landing ellipse [...] for the location of Steve Fossett, somewhat west-northwest of Mono Lake, in the Sierra Mountains, closest city Dardanelle, California.

So, the ID found near Mammoth Lakes simply cannot be the Steve Fossett's ID, because it would be circa 100 kilometers from Fossett's remote-viewed landing spot (Coast to Coast (http://www.coasttocoastam.com/gen/page2210.html), Google map (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=38.2689N+119.5507W&ie=UTF8&ll=38.333039,-119.553223&spn=1.986326,3.988037&z=8&iwloc=addr)).

[schlaugh]

Newspaper writers are (or were) trained to avoid making declarations in fact with potentially disputable evidence, even something obvious and especially when sensitive information is involved (arrests, child abuse, missing people, etc.). So the use of words such as "appears" and "possibly" is simply the journalist's way of presenting information that was probably made available by someone else, usually the police or other folks in official or semi-official status. It looks stupid to the average reader but it's just proper caution.

Hence the use of words like "alleged" when dealing with arrests, e.g. "Mr. Jones allegedly stole the car." Or "police claim that Mr Jones..." You get the drift.

We weren't there when the stuff was found and I'd wager that neither were the journalists. (Eyewitness reporting is a bit different - you can describe what you saw but even then there may be caveats.)

Extravoice, if newscasters were paid by their use of language they'd be among the poorest people on Earth. :)

[mugaliens]

I just saw that on USAToday (http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-10-01-fossett_N.htm) too and wonder about thier use of "possibly".

I don't know, an ID with his name on it. You don't think it could possibly be his, do you?

No. I'm quite certain they belong to another person of his size, possessing the same name, who just happened to throw away their shirt and other belongings.

:doh:

On the other hand, it could very well be a hoax.

DNA will tell.

Fox's ...appear to be two cards.

"We better check those to items again. They appeared to be cards, but we better check again, as they could have been battleships merely disguised as cards."

:wall:

I can see the courtroom, now:

Prosecution: "Mr. X, will you please tell me what these are?"

X: "Well, they appear to be cards."

Prosecution: "Appea? What do you mean by "appear?" Are they cards, or are they not cards?"

X: "Well, what I mean is, it looks as if they might be cards."

Prosecution: "Please tell the court, in your expert opinion, whether these are cards, or not."

X: "It seems to me they might be cards."

Prosecution: "We're trying to establish what they are, Mr. X. Are they cards, or aren't they?"

X: "If I had to guess, I'd say they might be cards."

Prosecution: "Don't guess, Mr. X! You're the expert witness, here - tell us what these two things are!"

X: "It appears to me..."

:doh:

Moral of the story: Some people, whether by disposition, or by training, are unable to equivocably state anything.

Can you imagine being married to someone like that?

"Honey? Are you coming to bed?"

"Well, I've thought I might come to bed..."

[NEOWatcher]

schlaugh: I understand what you're saying, but it appears that the links are pointing to a changing story, so it's pretty much impossible to point out some of the finer points as to why this was worded funny.

I know it's a developing story, but certain facts tend to go with certain other facts, and the question of the authenticity on this one seemed to be a major point that was only indicated through the single word of "possible".

[schlaugh]

No disagreement; the content is all over the place.

A few minutes ago CNN declared that Fosset's ID had been found but now it says ID bearing Steve Fossett's name found (http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/01/fossett.discovery/index.html).

The better headline in all cases - and even the lead - would have been simply that Steve Fosset's identification may have been found, and then go on to describe the facts as known or reported to the writers.

But as you say, it's a developing story and the new-found materials are unauthenticated right now.

[NEOWatcher]

A few minutes ago CNN declared that Fosset's ID had been found but now it says ID bearing Steve Fossett's name found (http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/01/fossett.discovery/index.html).

I really don't see a difference between the two. To me, an ID bearing somebody's name is that person's ID.

The better headline in all cases - and even the lead - would have been simply that Steve Fosset's identification may have been found
Like USAToday.
Actually; CNN has more of a habit* of saying something wild in the headline and you read the article and it reads as "well, not really. We really mean..."
Usually though, it's done by quoting a word in the headline.

*(they all do it but I think CNN does it most)

[BioSci]

I really don't see a difference between the two. To me, an ID bearing somebody's name is that person's ID.



Unless:
1) it belongs to some other person also named Steve Fossett or
2) it is a hoax.

Both possibilities are quite likely when dealing with a famous, missing, and presumed dead, person.

[Nicolas]

NEOWatcher: the ID that I have in my wallet is my ID, the real thing. If you faked my ID, that would be an ID bearing my name (unless you're really an amateur :D), but it would not be my ID... Also another person with the same name's ID would not be my ID.

edit: major ToSeek in a microscopic timeframe. :)

[Extravoice]

So, the ID found near Mammoth Lakes simply cannot be the Steve Fossett's ID, because it would be circa 100 kilometers from Fossett's remote-viewed landing spot (Coast to Coast (http://www.coasttocoastam.com/gen/page2210.html), Google map (http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=38.2689N+119.5507W&ie=UTF8&ll=38.333039,-119.553223&spn=1.986326,3.988037&z=8&iwloc=addr)).


This isn't the Steve Fossett we're looking for.
</Jedi mind trick>

[NEOWatcher]

Ok; granted. I guess I had my blinders folded in the headline only. In the context of a headline, there's only so many words, so things tend not to be exact.
But in the text of the article, I would be in full agreement with you.

[KaiYeves]

Unless:
1) it belongs to some other person also named Steve Fossett
I'm sure there must be somebody else in the world with that name, but really, the odds... a hoax seems more likely.

[JohnD]

"ID cards, cash and a sweatshirt were among the items found in woods near the town of Mammoth Lakes, in a rugged eastern area of the state."
From BBC News dateline 1 October 2008 21:17 UK
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7647303.stm

John the dataminer
(it wasn't hard)

[KaiYeves]

No wreckage... that's really odd.

[Nicolas]

Lack of aircraft is a good reason to fall out of the sky though...

But seriously, it is a bit odd. You'd expect to find either the wreckage or the man in the neighbourhood of the jacket.

[Van Rijn]

Lack of aircraft is a good reason to fall out of the sky though...

But seriously, it is a bit odd. You'd expect to find either the wreckage or the man in the neighbourhood of the jacket.

There might be. There was a late report on local news that they might have spotted wreckage and were going to take a closer look tomorrow. This is still very preliminary (might not be wreckage, might not be his), but google search turned up this:

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gfmXbQn-RFLHSjd8_s23ytiM6OVAD93I7O2G0


Search teams combing a rugged part of eastern California for any sign of Steve Fossett, the adventurer who vanished on a solo flight more than a year ago, have spotted what appeared to be wreckage Wednesday, authorities said.

Erica Stuart, spokeswoman for the Madera County Sheriff's Office, would not reveal the exact location of the reported aerial sighting, which she said was called in around sunset.[snip]

[Van Rijn]

By the way, it also mentions in the article that they had found $1,005 in cash, and they haven't said there was anything obviously wrong with the IDs found (with matching name, birth date, address, and pilot license certificate number), so if this is a fake, it's a fairly elaborate one.

[Neverfly]

Who says he was wearing his jacket at the time his plane went down?
I can easily see how the objects that are more susceptible to air resistance being further from the wreckage.

I do not find it odd in the least.

[schlaugh]

NYTimes treatment of the story. Also, click on the link to see an image of Morrow, the fellow who found the ID cards and money:
Searchers for Aviator Spot Wreckage in Mountains (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/us/02fossett.html?ref=us)

By STEVE FRIESS Published: October 1, 2008
A pilot involved in a renewed search for the adventurer Steve Fossett (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/f/steve_fossett/index.html?inline=nyt-per) spotted what he believed to be plane wreckage Wednesday in rugged east-central California mountains. On Monday, a hiker came across items believed to belong to the missing aviator.Officials said they would know by a news conference on Thursday morning whether it was wreckage and if so if whether it belonged to Mr. Fossett, who has been missing for 13 months.

[Larry Jacks]

There's also this to consider: If Fosset survived the crash, he might've tried to walk out of the area. Pilots are taught that the best way to survive is to stay with the wreckage (it's normally easier to see a plane wreckage than an individual). However, if he knew his plane was in an area where it'd be difficult to locate from the air or if he believed his chances were better, he might've tried to walk out.

Also, whether he did or didn't survive the crash, it's likely his body was eaten by animals. Animals sometimes carry things quite a distance from where the body died.

[hhEb09'1]

What if there were an explosion, and the debris scattered? How far apart are the wreckage and personal items?

[Neverfly]

Also, whether he did or didn't survive the crash, it's likely his body was eaten by animals. Animals sometimes carry things quite a distance from where the body died.

I think they would have mentioned if the jacket looked chewed on.
I'm not sure animals walk around with $1000 in cash often... Most of the ones I have met don't at least.

But I'll keep an eye out for it.

[NEOWatcher]

Developing story. They found the plane, but no human remains. Briefing is occuring now.

They said he ran head-on into the mountain. It would be a lot more interesting if he backed into it.

Edit: Wow; that grid was previously searched 19 times.

[Swift]

Link to CNN.com story (http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/02/steve.fossett.search/index.html)
CNN) -- Authorities found the plane Steve Fossett was flying when he disappeared last year, but they have not found the remains of the millionaire adventurer, the Madera County, California, sheriff said Thursday.

"They did locate an aircraft which we have now confirmed is the one Steve Fossett was flying when it disappeared last Labor Day," Sheriff John Anderson told reporters at a news conference.

He further said that searchers found no remains and the crash appeared "so severe I doubt someone would've walked away from it."

[NEOWatcher]

"They did locate an aircraft which we have now confirmed is the one Steve Fossett was flying...

Wow; that story is changing real fast. I just commented on the other Fosset thread from the same story when it seemed to indicate that the sheriff said it's up to the NTSB to identify it. Now it's the Sheriff?

[Extravoice]

There's also this to consider: If Fosset survived the crash, he might've tried to walk out of the area.

Is that a man?

[schlaugh]

Update and photos:

Wreckage of Fossett’s Plane Is Found (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/us/03fossett.html?hp)

By STEVE FRIESS and ANAHAD O’CONNOR (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/o/anahad_oconnor/index.html?inline=nyt-per) Published: October 2, 2008
California authorities have confirmed that the wreckage of a plane they found is that of Steve Fossett (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/f/steve_fossett/index.html?inline=nyt-per), the millionaire adventurer who vanished more than a year ago after embarking on a solo flight.
Madera County Sheriff John Anderson said that an aerial search late Wednesday spotted what appeared to be wreckage in the Inyo National Forest near the town of Mammoth Lakes. He said ground crews were sent to verify the sighting, and they confirmed it was Fossett’s single-engine Bellanca plane, The Associated Press reported.

Another story quotes the sheriff as saying the crash site and the location of the found items are about 1/4 mile apart.

[NEOWatcher]

Update and photos:

Doesn't look like too much different than all the other stories.
The photos are of the ID which I've seen elsewhere... I guess I was hoping to see the area that it was found.

[Swift]

The CNN.com story I linked to above now has a photo of some of the wreakage and a link to a map.

[NEOWatcher]

The CNN.com story I linked to above now has a photo of some of the wreakage and a link to a map.
Wow;
I'd probably have inserted another adjecteve in front of "doubt someone would've walked away..."

Something like that would wreak a lot of havoc with the body. ;)

[schlaugh]

I watched and listened to the video of the sheriff who said the engine was found 300 feet away. Makes me wonder at what angle and speed the plane "impacted terrain" as the NTSB often says. Would a true head-on crash spit the engine that far? Or was it more oblique...as if he was trying to pull out and semi-pancaked.

It'll be interesting to read the NTSB report.

[NEOWatcher]

...Makes me wonder at what angle and speed the plane "impacted terrain" as the NTSB often says. Would a true head-on crash spit the engine that far? Or was it more oblique...as if he was trying to pull out and semi-pancaked...
Something that passed through my mind too. I haven't heard what they mean by head-on. From the live press conference when the discovery was made, somebody was explaining how this was a flat area and not really the side of a mountain.

I let it pass thinking I might hear more.

Edit: Here's a bit of understatement from the NTSB for the sake of legalese.
USAToday (http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-10-02-fossett_N.htm)
"it appears to be consistent with a nonsurvivable accident." He also said it was "indicative of a high-impact crash."

[kleindoofy]

Please excuse me if this appears rude, but regarding anything about Steve Fosset, including his round trip in the balloon, I have to ask:

Who cares?

[Larry Jacks]

You may not care and that's fine. As a pilot and admirer of Steve Fosset, I care.

[Larry Jacks]

I think they would have mentioned if the jacket looked chewed on.
I'm not sure animals walk around with $1000 in cash often... Most of the ones I have met don't at least.

But I'll keep an eye out for it.

A report I saw yesterday mentioned that the jacket appeared to have both human and animal hair on it. If that's accurate, I'd consider the presence of animal hair as a clue. Of course, that may not have been accurate. The news media is notoriously inaccurate when it comes to aviation. It's also possible the jacket including identification cards and cash washed off of the mountain.

As for positively identifying the plane, every airplane is required to have a metal identification plate with identifying information (make, model, serial number, etc.) That plate is mounted on the rear fuselage near the tail. I'm reasonably confident that the ground search party had the identifying information and was able to confirm the plane's identity as being the one Fosset was flying.

As to the crash itself, if the plane flew straight into the side of a mountain, it seems unlikely the engine would be 300 feet away (uphill). Some of the pictures seem to show the plane hit on an incline, perhaps a glancing blow. It's hard to tell from the sketchy information released to date.

One thing I learned from years of flying in Colorado is that if it's windy, you can encounter very strong downdrafts when flying towards mountains. Those downdrafts can be strong enough to overcome your plane's ability to climb. The preferred technique is to approach a mountain ridge at an angle so that it'll be easier to turn away from the mountain if it doesn't look like you're going to clear it. That might be one possibility of what happened to Fosset. A Bellanca Decathlon has a good climb rate but at that altitude, he still might've found himself unable to clear the mountain. It's also possible the visibility was low and he didn't see the mountain in time. A cloud covered mountain is known as "cumulo granite." Very unhealthy.

[Extravoice]

Steve Fossett was what a lot of people wish they were. He was an adventurer (in many areas), a millionaire, and managed to stay married to the same woman for about 30 years.

His persistance in his around-the-world balloon attempts is legendary, and that alone puts him in my hero category. Personally, I think the world is a lesser place without him, if only because there is one fewer great acheiver to inspire the rest of us.

On top of that, his disappearance was a mystery....and we all love a mystery. I'd love to see him walk out of the woods and ask the search crew what took them so long. But sadly, that isn't going to happen

[schlaugh]

Kliendoofy, Fossett was a $#@% good and experienced pilot, a generally very smart fellow, had risked his life numerous times and had survived some outlandish experiences. So for him to fly off into the desert in a very trustworthy aircraft on a routine flight, and not come back with nary a clue, well it's just a darned good and fascinating story. As Terry Pratchett might say, it has narrativium.*

*"The Science of Discworld", Jack Cohen, Ian Stewart & Terry Pratchett

[tony873004]

Looks like I was off by about 200 miles from my prediction in the OP.

[JohnD]

It is interesting, though mainly to his family, I suppose.
But you guys are extrapolating on extrapolations, and building theories on it.
Me, I'll wait until the coroner's enquiry.
RIP, Mr.Fosset

PS Now someone's saying he's not dead: http://www.bautforum.com/off-topic-babbling/77323-steve-fossett-not-dead.html

[Swift]

A cloud covered mountain is known as "cumulo granite." Very unhealthy.
I can't help it, but that makes me think of this Gary Larson cartoon (http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b24/greasedupdeafguy/FarSide1-14.jpg).

[Nowhere Man]

Speaking of predictions, how many psychics pointed to this area before the discovery, and how many will point to it afterward?

Answers: Zero, and all of them.

Fred

[Warren Platts]

Check out this possible debris field. It's about 45 feet across, and there's nothing else like it around:

38°05'56.88" N 119°25'06.47" W
Only about 25 miles away (37 40.29, -119 08.54). Closer than Ed Dames. They found him at the end of a box canyon, as I suspected. You should only fly down canyons. Well, most bold pilots don't last as long as he did.

[01101001]

Closer than Ed Dames.

Quick, start a remote-viewing school!

[Extravoice]

NTSB: Remains found at Steve Fossett wreckage site ( http://www.optimum.net/News/AP/Article?articleId=472667)

RIP, big guy.

[mahesh]

Oh my...yes and sadly this too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7647732.stm

So sad. RIP Mr Fossett!

At least his family can now have some kind of peace and decent burial.

[hhEb09'1]

NTSB: Remains found at Steve Fossett wreckage site ( http://www.optimum.net/News/AP/Article?articleId=472667)The breakthrough — in fact, the first trace of any kind — came earlier this week when a hiker stumbled across a pilot's license and other ID cards belonging to Fossett a quarter-mile from where the plane was later spotted in the Inyo National Forest. Investigators said animals might have dragged the IDs from the wreckage while picking over Fossett's remains.A couple IDs, a jacket, a thousand bucks, what kind of packrat was this? Seems almost human.
RIP, big guy.
Amen

[KaiYeves]

At least we have some idea of what happened now. Poor, poor* guy.

*In the sympathetic, not the economic sense.

[mahesh]

Reminds me of Patsy Cline (what a doll)....another Large Head-on Collider. Poor things!

[Neverfly]

The news reports mentioned not finding the body.

This is surprising?
A year ago, the plane managed to launch its engine 300 feet from its body.

I'm fairly certain that there remains little of Steve Fosset to be found.
Yet, without it, the conspiracy theorists will go right on claiming he faked his own death just like Tupac Shakur and Elvis.

[Nicolas]

Erm, they have now found body parts, see posts and links above :).

[Neverfly]

Erm, they have now found body parts, see posts and links above :).

Oh.
Rats keep updating the story...:whistle:

[Kiwi]

NYTimes treatment of the story.
Searchers for Aviator Spot Wreckage in Mountains (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/us/02fossett.html?ref=us)


I'm not greatly familiar with all American usages, but does this sound odd to U.S. ears?
Mr. Fossett… was the first person to circumvent the world in a hot-air balloon

Perhaps the NY Times meant "circumnavigate." The nearest definition of circumvent is "to encircle an enemy in order to defeat" but it doesn't seem to mean "encircle the world." It is usually used to mean variations of "thwart."

[schlaugh]

I suspect the writer garbled up a typo and hit CHANGE on the first hit in the spell checker...:doh:

But bad editing nonetheless.

[mahesh]

...circumvent, definitely grating....

....calling Mr William Safire....

[Swift]

RIP, big guy.
He died doing what he loved to do. Maybe a more fitting end then in some hospital bed from a chronic illness.
Fly high Steve Fossett.
http://www.aiipowmia.com/histories/histformation.jpg

[Larry Jacks]

CNN has an interesting video story about a project Fosset (http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/tech/2008/10/03/dnt.fossett.secret.project.kgo) was sponsoring before he died. He was the sponsor for a radical submarine that was going to be able to dive to the deepest part of the ocean and "fly" (design appears to be heavily influenced by aviation concepts). The sub was just a few weeks from being ready to go when Fosset disappeared. It had already been pressure tested but is now sitting in a warehouse.

I'd seen something about this sub on a Discovery Channel program but had no idea Fosset was behind it. It doesn't surprise me. Fosset loved to push the edges so "flying" to the bottom of the Marianas Trench would be right in character for him. It could also be very useful for scientific purposes. Somebody needs to find a way to get that sub running. It would be a lasting tribute to a fascinating man.

[Nicolas]

Would 20 million do? Just thinking about a fitting way to use the insurance money (assuming his family doesn't really need 20 million, given his fortune...)

[djellison]

He was also starting a project to break the land speed record held by Thrust SSC - he had purchased Breedlove's Spirit of America car. Infact, he was flying around, I believe, to find a new venue to test it (instead of Black Rock)

[KaiYeves]

Great picture, Swift. That sub should be built for sure! Maybe I'll tell my friend at NOAA.

[Larry Jacks]

The sub has already been built and pressure tested. It needs to be used! Think about it, a small and highly maneuverable submarine capable of going anywhere in the Earth's oceans! The video link said it can dive very quickly (less than two hours to the deepest place on Earth) and surface quickly. It doesn't look like it needs a tremendous amount of surface support, either, making it relatively inexpensive to operate. There is so much about the deep oceans that we don't know. Remember, those ecosystems around the deep ocean vents (http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/dynamic/exploring.html) were discovered in 1977.

[KaiYeves]

Used, I mean. Stupid typo.

[mahesh]

thanks for the link, L J!

[schlaugh]

Looks like the DNA investigation may have something more to work with this time, depending on how much tissue can be sampled.

Fossett driver's license found near crash site (http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/10/30/fossett.search/index.html)

Bones, ID found near Fossett crash site

(CNN) -- Two bones and a driver's license with Steve Fossett's name have been found near the site where Fossett's plane crashed in eastern California, authorities said Thursday.

The bones appear to be human, and DNA testing will determine whether they belong to the adventurer, Madera County Sheriff John Anderson said at a news conference.

Searchers found "two large bones," the driver's license, a pair of shoes and a $100 bill on Wednesday, Anderson said.

[mahesh]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7707397.stm

Rest In Peace Mr Fossett!

[Nowhere Man]

Interesting. The crash site is just outside the initial search area, and a good distance from the "mountain" search area. I wonder how far off this flight plan he was?

Fred

[mugaliens]

Only about 25 miles away (37 40.29, -119 08.54). Closer than Ed Dames. They found him at the end of a box canyon, as I suspected. You should only fly down canyons. Well, most bold pilots don't last as long as he did.

I'm sorry he didn't have the IP (instructor pilot) I had when I was first learning to fly.

[01101001]

Discovery Channel: Steve Fossett, What Went Wrong?

Schedule (http://dsc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=1.14617.25959.0.0)

It's the shocking story of the mysterious disappearance and death of the greatest aviator in the world: Steve Fossett. The crash, the questions, and the haunting answers you've never heard... until now.

Dec 01, 10:00 pm
Dec 02, 2:00 am

[geonuc]

Greatest aviator in the world? Hmmm ...

[mugaliens]

Greatest aviator in the world? Hmmm ...

Agreed.

Steve Fossett achieved some serious aviation milestones, no doubt about it. However, "great aviators" don't fly in IMC (instrument meteorological conditions) with no instruments and no instrument rating. They don't scud run (running under a low-lying deck of clouds). They're not apt to fly up box canyons in such conditions, particularly without knowing a simple maneuver which can be performed using basic instruments that'll put you on a reverse course out of a box canyon on the same track in which you entered.

Put simply, he was a "daring aviator." He was not a great aviator.

Why must the media exalt the dead well above reality, particularly when their passing was due to their own ineptness?

[sarongsong]

...He was not a great aviator...:rolleyes: Oh, do give us your list of greats.

[Nicolas]

Aviators that do not take risks they're not optimally prepared for, know their limits, and when they get into trouble, show excellent skills of getting out of them.

Fossett did some amazing things and I respect him for that, but to put it simple: he would not be my first choice as my personal pilot. Second choice maybe. :)

[PraedSt]

Robin Olds is one of my greats. Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Olds). Interview (http://www.af.mil/news/airman/1296/olds.htm). ;)

[Larry Jacks]

Steve Fossett achieved some serious aviation milestones, no doubt about it. However, "great aviators" don't fly in IMC (instrument meteorological conditions) with no instruments and no instrument rating.

Steve Fossett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Fossett) had an instrument rating, various jet type ratings as well as balloon and sailplane ratings. I wouldn't go so far as to call him the greatest aviator in the world but he was a very good one - setting dozens of world records in balloons, gliders, and powered flight.

Even very good aviators can make a critical mistake that kills them. For example, Frank Tallman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Tallman) was the top Hollywood stunt pilot for many years following the death of his partner Paul Mantz. Tallman died in a CFIT accident (controlled flight into terrain) when his plane struck a mountain on a routine flight. Scott Crossfield (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Crossfield) was truly a great aviator in anyone's book but he died when his 1961 Cessna 210 broke up at night in a thunderstorm. A readily available $2000 Garmin handheld GPS with weather receiver would've probably saved his life.

[Nicolas]

Steve Fossett had an instrument rating, various jet type ratings as well as balloon and sailplane ratings.

The plane also needs to have an instrument rating before being allowed to fly in IMC. As far as I know, his plane was a VMC only plane. Flying a VMC plane in IMC conditions is not good aviation.

[mugaliens]

:rolleyes: Oh, do give us your list of greats.

Oh, ye of little faith... :mad:

I'm with PraedSt on Robin Olds. There was much wrong with the Air Force back then, as there is much wrong with the Air Force today. Too many otherwise well-intentioned people making wrong decisions by refusing to make the right ones. Their politically correct lack of involvement and homage to perception over reality results, long term, in going down many roads on which the Air Force should never have been side-tracked in the first place.

Folks like BGen Olds, much as his outspoken predecessor, Billy Mitchell (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Mitchell), stood up for what's right, stood up against what's wrong, and received flak from both throughout his career. The only reason Olds made it as far as he did was that he almost never made a mistake. If he had, they'd have taken him down for it long ago. Mitchell was taken down because of a scathing, but correct comment he made, in writing, after a lighter-than-air accident.

From his entry (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robin_Olds#1972_inspection_tour_and_retirement)in Wikipedia: "Olds toured USAF bases in Thailand (flying several unauthorized combat missions in the process) and brought back a blunt assessment. Air Force pilots, he said, "couldn't fight their way out of a wet paper bag." To the surprise of nearly everyone else in the room, Air Force Chief of Staff John D. Ryan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Dale_Ryan) (another former SAC general and often at odds with the tactical fighter community), agreed with Olds. Olds later offered to take a voluntary reduction in rank (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reduction_in_rank) to colonel so he could return to operational command and straighten out the situation. Olds decided to leave the Air Force when the offer was refused and retired on June 1, 1973."

Put simply, Olds earned three Air Medals with 39 oak leave clusters. He was a triple ace, with a total of 16 victories in WWII and Vietnam, the latter while the USAF kill ratio was around 1:1.

By contrast, Fosset was a thrill-seeking glory-hound. True, he was exceptionally great at amassing world records in many fields.

That doesn't make one a great aviator.

1. He didn't file a flight plan. This isn't required, but it's highly encouraged, and something most folks do when they're travelling any further than the local traffic pattern. Even average aviators file flight plans for all off-station flights. His only reported destination was "heading south to Highway 395, which runs north-south through Owns Valley."

2. An employee of the club which loaned him the airplane stated that he saw the airplane at "about 0825 or 0835 approximately 8 nautical miles (nm) south of the departure strip ... he saw it flying south at about 150 to 200 feet above the ground." Great aviators don't fly 150 to 200 feet above the ground, except: 1) during landing and takeoff, 2) when flying low-level military operations, as a way to both radar as well as spoil certain airborne weapons locks, 3) crop-dusting, 4) momentary loss of judgment, i.e., they were being "stupid." Thrill-seekers, on the other hand may very well go blitzing around power-line country willy-nilly.

3. He took off with enough fuel for 4-5 hrs or flight.

4. He flew into mountain at 10,100 feet, 600 feet lower than the top of the ridge. Sectional charts (mandatory for non-instrument rated flights) clearly depict min sectoring altitudes (MSAs) which even average aviators do not violate without exceptionally good cause (like either landing, or engine out). He wasn't near where he'd stated he was going to be. Despite having fully operational radios, he never filed a flight-plan while airborne (piece of cake) to let anyone know of his modified intentions, particularly vital when flying over mountainous terrain.

Fosset was a daring aviator. He set many world records, dozens of which remain unbroken. But he was a hot-dogging thrill seeker who's life was taken as a consequence of the very behavior he, and no one else, chose to take.

He wasn't a great aviator.

[mugaliens]

Steve Fossett achieved some serious aviation milestones, no doubt about it. However, "great aviators" don't fly in IMC (instrument meteorological conditions) with no instruments and no instrument rating.

Steve Fossett (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Fossett) had an instrument rating, various jet type ratings as well as balloon and sailplane ratings. I wouldn't go so far as to call him the greatest aviator in the world but he was a very good one - setting dozens of world records in balloons, gliders, and powered flight.

Even very good aviators can make a critical mistake that kills them. For example, Frank Tallman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Tallman) was the top Hollywood stunt pilot for many years following the death of his partner Paul Mantz. Tallman died in a CFIT accident (controlled flight into terrain) when his plane struck a mountain on a routine flight. Scott Crossfield (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Crossfield) was truly a great aviator in anyone's book but he died when his 1961 Cessna 210 broke up at night in a thunderstorm. A readily available $2000 Garmin handheld GPS with weather receiver would've probably saved his life.

My bad, Larry - yes - Fosset had an instrument rating, as well as 350 hrs in the 6 months prior to the crash (a LOT), and multi-engine commercial ratings, as well. He was a well-educted and highly experienced aviator.

Piggy-backing on your trend, a neighbor of ours, former Navy pilot with several thousand hours, died in 2006 due to controlled flight into severe weather (similar to Crossfield). AOPA's push for ADS-B as a replacement for Mode-C, CAS, and surveillance radar, includes Wx uplinking via UAT.

Another friend, about 25 years ago, flew into the side of a mountain on a bright, sunny day with only mild winds. Reason? He tried climbing over a ridgeline from the leeward side.

Great aviators are great not because they don't make mistakes. They're great because they take the time and effort to avoid situations where they're forced to rely on their exceptional skills. Pilots who forget that usually find, sooner or later, circumstances where they get themselves into a situation out of which their skills or the limitations of their aircraft become the weakest link in the chain. I would submit that the ability to avoid such easily avoidable situations is one of the key skills of being a great aviator.

I again submit that Fosset wasn't a great aviator.

[djellison]

I really hope someone can pick his most recent project and go on with it
http://www.fossettlsr.com/index2.html

It'd be great to have a race between Bloodhound SSC and Fossett's car (formerly Breedlove's car) over the next few years.

Doug

[mugaliens]

I really hope someone can pick his most recent project and go on with it
http://www.fossettlsr.com/index2.html

It'd be great to have a race between Bloodhound SSC and Fossett's car (formerly Breedlove's car) over the next few years.

Doug

Now this is a cool video (http://www.bloodhoundssc.com/search.cfm?faArea1=customWidgets.contentItem_show_ 1&cit_id=4290)- it's got my blood pumping!!!

I'm not keen on Breedlove's approach, as just from looking at it and knowing what I do about shock wave propogation, I think it has some serious design flaws.

[Nicolas]

Noble seems to take the Apollo approach to raise the level of engineering for his country. (btw,according to Aldrin, returning to the moon could do the same for sustainable engineering, if done right)

As for Breedlove's (Fossett's) craft: I don't immediately see a problem with it. It appears that both Breedlove's and Fossett's craft would have the inlet behind the bow shock, thus getting extra compression. Just by the looks of it of course, I didn't do any calculations. Thrust SSC didn't have this for supersonic velocities in the range Bloodhound is aiming at (again, by the looks of it), but then again, it was mainly subsonic, in which case the inlet position may very well be enough backwards, so that makes sense. Anyway, it's something easily spotted even in an analytic shock pattern simulator. So we can safely assume they did that part correct on all three craft :).

What was the problem you saw, mugs?

The starfighter engine remains a popular one for land speed records. A US based team is using a starfighter flown by Yeager for their car. "Clip the wings" is more or less their car concept :).

[mugaliens]

As for Breedlove's (Fossett's) craft: I don't immediately see a problem with it. What was the problem you saw, mugs?

The gull-wing rear wheel struts have a long enough chord that transonic shock waves reflected off the desert floor will produce some serious lift, possible enough to unstick the rear wheels.

The starfighter engine remains a popular one for land speed records. A US based team is using a starfighter flown by Yeager for their car. "Clip the wings" is more or less their car concept :).

I saw that! They're still at the 500 mph stage with their latest set of wheels. When it comes to strength of materials, that's just 20% of what's required for the 1,000 mph barrier.

[sarongsong]

I really hope someone can pick his most recent project [land speed record attempt]...And another:October 2, 2008
...The Deep Space Challenger looks like a plane, but is actually a winged submersible - capable of diving to the lowest spot on Earth, The Mariana Trench...37,000 feet below the surface..."We were four weeks away from splashing it in," said Hawkes. But now that Fossett has died, the project is on hold...
ABC News (http://abclocal.go.com/kgo/story?section=news/local/east_bay&id=6429493)Steve Fossett: What Went Wrong?
Dec 01, 10:00 pm
(60 minutes)
Discovery Channel (http://dsc.discovery.com/tv-schedules/special.html?paid=1.14617.25959.0.0)

[Nicolas]

@Mugs: I see what you mean. Though it's possible that the reflected upstream would only reach these surfaces at speeds way higher than what this car is designed for, and hence they would be in the wake behind the reflected shocks during the ride. We'd have to do the calculations to be sure. But it certainly is something they need to look into with this design.

[djellison]

I think Breedloves initial plan was to get up to 650 or so (in what would have been a new record ahead of Thrust 2), and then drive it remotely thru the sound barrier to see how it did, before getting back in it.

I'm a member of the Bloodhound SSC 1k-Club, I'll be at the first supporters meeting next Sunday....and whilst I seriously doubt the ability of the American Eagle project, and have some reservations about Breedloves old car - I still want someone to come up and at least tickle the Thrust SSC record to shove a firecracker up the backside of British Engineering for Bloodhound SSC.

[mugaliens]

I still want someone to come up and at least tickle the Thrust SSC record to shove a firecracker up the backside of British Engineering for Bloodhound SSC.

I had a thought... Is there anything in the rulebooks which says that the vehicle has to come to a stop on the surface? Or does it just have to run the course on the surface?

If the latter, put the 105's wings back on and simply take off after the run in one direction instead of spending miles trying to slow it back down.

It'd give you quite a bit more room to accelerate...

[Nicolas]

Alternatively, come in for a fast landing, and start your run at 300km/h instead of 0. :)

The wheels they use for the land speed record would be horrible wheels to perform a landing with though, and as they wouldn't be retractable, you'd get a rough flight.

[mugaliens]

The wheels they use for the land speed record would be horrible wheels to perform a landing with though, and as they wouldn't be retractable, you'd get a rough flight.

At mach speeds, absolutely!