The effects of a battle field tac nuke on a city

[Sticks]

I am doing preliminary research for a story, I hope to write.

The latest in my Mystical Realms series FWIW

This question of something I am toying with I suspect is not available in Wikiepdia (Although by Murphy's law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_law) I could be wrong on that :shifty: )

The idea is this.

Bad guys from the Mystical Realms get hold of former Soviet battlefield tactical nuclear warheads and explodes one in Washington DC and others in a number of US cities like New York

How much damage would one do?
Assuming the President and Vice president and whole of congress it wiped out, who constitutionally takes charge.

The motive of the bad guys is to provoke the US to fire retaliation missiles at Russia and start world war three. Their ultimate aim is to soften humanity up so they can send in armies to conquer any survivors and "take Earth", so the main baddie who is leading the escapade can lay claim to a throne on the grounds of being a superior warrior.

[geonuc]

The Secretary of State would be next in line.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/3/19.html

[Swift]

A little Googling found this reference (part of a book) (http://books.google.com/books?id=c4eQpH9DW3sC&pg=PA292&lpg=PA292&dq=tactical+nuclear+weapons+effect+on+a+city&source=bl&ots=D0U7ILKBcQ&sig=UwIkWGstIxKjOigOu18kL-6xNgo&hl=en&ei=CIvsSZz5OdKhjAfd-oCfCg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1). I make no claims as to how correct it is.

The Federation of American Scientists, have this little Nuclear Weapon Effects Calculator (http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclear_weapon_effects/nuclearwpneffctcalc.html) you can play with.

I also found this (http://online.physics.uiuc.edu/courses/phys280/spring09/slides/09p280-3-effects.ppt#682,1,Module 3: Nuclear Weapon Effects) university physics lecture on nuclear weapons.

[Sticks]

The Secretary of State would be next in line.

http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/3/19.html

Thanks for that. I have copied the link to my research notes. I plan to do this later in the year as I have other things suddenly biting at my heels :sad:

Out of interest, this scenario is the battlefield nuke in Washington is designed to wipe out as much of the US executive in one foul swoop. Would all those people be in the vicinity at the same time? If they all were is there some regional resilience protocol?

oops I here the CIA knocking at my door :eek:

[geonuc]

Thanks for that. I have copied the link to my research notes. I plan to do this later in the year as I have other things suddenly biting at my heels :sad:

Out of interest, this scenario is the battlefield nuke in Washington is designed to wipe out as much of the US executive in one foul swoop. Would all those people be in the vicinity at the same time? If they all were is there some regional resilience protocol?

oops I here the CIA knocking at my door :eek:
Now you're in unknown territory. If your nuke wiped out the President, Vice-President, entire Congress and the entire Cabinet, then I believe the US government will have been wiped out. I'd suggest in your story that either the governor of a populated state (NY, California) or the highest ranking remaining military officer take charge. There will certainly be 'disagreements' concerning who is in charge.

[weatherc]

It is probably very unlikely that the entire Cabinet and Congress would be in one place on any given day. The Secretary of State in particular tends to travel a lot, from what I can tell.

The only time I can think of that most of the government is assembled at one time is during a State of the Union address, but even then, I think there's always a few higher ranking officials that aren't present.

[Swift]

The only time I can think of that most of the government is assembled at one time is during a State of the Union address, but even then, I think there's always a few higher ranking officials that aren't present.
IIRC, it is actually times like that, when it is publically known that such officials will be together, that special precautions are taken such that several members are in secure locations.

Here (http://crapo.senate.gov/monthly_feature/mf_state_union.cfm#Continuity), for example, is a little description of what is done during the State of the Union address (from a Senator's website).
What precautions are taken at the Address to assure continuity of government?

Customarily, one member of the President's Cabinet does not attend. This precaution is taken in order to provide continuity in the presidency in the event a catastrophe were to result in the death or disablement of the President, the Vice President, and other officials in the line of presidential succession gathered in the House chamber. Veterans Affairs Secretary Jim Nicholson stayed away from the Capitol during the 2006 address. Then-Secretary of Commerce Donald L. Evans was the cabinet member who did not attend the State of the Union address in both 2004 and 2005.(11) In a post-September 11, 2001, development that began with the 2003 address, congressional leadership responded to increased concern over security by designating two Members of each house of Congress, representing both parties, to be absent from the Capitol during the President's speech. Members absent from the 2006 address were Senators Byron Dorgan and Ted Stevens and Representatives Eric Cantor and George Miller.(12)


During the cold war with the USSR a lot of these scenarios were worked out and appropriate courses of action were taken. I also suspect post 9/11 that this has all been revised.

Here is the wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_line_of_succession) on the line of succession, out to 18 people.

Here (http://www.continuityofgovernment.org/investigation/succession.html) is a site with info from a 2003 Senate study on this.

[Metricyard]

If that many government officials were killed off in one shot, I would assume that a military figure would take over. Let's face it, if some country put that much effort to kill off a whole government, I would have to guess that they wouldn't have our best interests at heart.

[Argos]

A single tactical nuke in the hands of a terrorist group wouldn´t do that much of destruction [not to mention the exceptional security measures taken into effect in government gatherings nowadays - refer to the recent G-20 meeting]. Especially if exploding on the surface, which is the most likely scenario for such kind of attack. It would cause mass panic [and provoke an escalation of unpredictable consequences], but wiping out the entire government is out of question.

[novaderrik]

why does it always have to be New York or DC that gets attacked? why not blow up London and make it look like the Russians did it, which would then obligate the US government to retaliate in defense of it's ally?
the end result would be the same, but without an evil American city going down first for once.

[Swift]

why does it always have to be New York or DC that gets attacked?
Not to completely hijack this thread, but interesting question. I don't know anything about Mystical Realms or what its connetion to Earth is. But lets say your garden-variety angry aliens pop into orbit and want to "send a message", what target do they pick? And assume they don't know anything about Earth politics, so they don't know anything about the President of the USA and the rules of succession. Would Washington or even New York be an obvious target?

If they just look at human "life form readings" Tokyo or Jakarta, might be a more likely target (populations of urban areas (http://www.mongabay.com/cities_pop_01.htm)).

[Sticks]

I am still working on the story ideas before I start writing it. The premise of the Mystical Realms began by accident in 2001 for long and tortuous reasons. The Mystical Realms is a world in an alternative parallel universe. By strange means, briefly touched on in my "season seven", this world was somehow formed by the collective human unconsciousness and as a consequence it is populated with creatures from our myth and fantasy stories, including certain abstract vices and virtues in semi-human form.

The stories deal with the interaction between inhabitants of that world and ours. In later stories the existence of this alternate world is a highly guarded secret with a special agency formed to have dealings with that world and co-operate with their allies and governing creatures, the trolls, which is based in DC. Hence DC being a target.

What I am working on is a legacy from the original villain in 2001 coming on the scene, and part of their agenda is forcing a war between the two worlds and using what ever means to make themselves look like a mighty warrior by winning a war with Earth and so wrest power from those who had formed an alliance with Earth.

[Larry Jacks]

why does it always have to be New York or DC that gets attacked?

I remember a news magazine cover from a number of years ago that was titled (roughly) "New York vs Washington DC: Why we hate them both." That might answer your question.

As to the damage done by a tactical nuke at ground level, it depends a lot on where it's placed and the yield. Tactical nukes yields ranged all the way from multi-kiloton to the sub-kiloton (the smallest I ever read about was equal to about 20 tons of TNT). If your antagonist wanted to take out both the White House and Congress, it'd need to be a fairly sizeable weapon. Those buildings are a fair distance apart and pretty stongly built.

[Swift]

The Mystical Realms is a world in an alternative parallel universe. By strange means, briefly touched on in my "season seven", this world was somehow formed by the collective human unconsciousness and as a consequence it is populated with creatures from our myth and fantasy stories, including certain abstract vices and virtues in semi-human form.

I'm reminded of various cartoons and short stories of the theme that in alternate universes, populated by creatures like werewolves and hobbits, that the geeky inhabitants of those universes play role-playing games where they get to be accountants and IT people and chemists. :D

My level 10 accountant finds some strange entries in the payroll program and contacts IT.
Roll a saving throw. Nope, sorry, you've been audited.

[Noordung]

Glasstone & Dolan's Effects of Nuclear Weapons is available online. It includes a great deal of information on damage effects and how they scale with yield, burst height and such:

http://www.princeton.edu/~globsec/publications/effects/effects.shtml

Certain chapters from the (at one time) classified companion called Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons can be found here:

http://glasstone.blogspot.com/2006/03/samuel-glasstone-and-philip-j-dolan.html

Globalsecurity has a lot of detail on specific US weapons. Note that "tactical" can still imply rather a large bang. The Hiroshima and Nagasaki weapons would be considered such by modern standards:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/systems/nuke-list.htm

You can navigate over into their description of Soviet weapons as well, but it's far less detailed.

[sarongsong]

...Assuming the President and Vice president and whole of congress it wiped out, who constitutionally takes charge...County sheriffs seem to have a lot of authority......in one foul swoop... http://www.bautforum.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

[JohnD]

Sticks,
Isn't this a bit old hat?
Apocalytic, fall-of-civilisation novels were all the rage in the 50's (Wyndham, Christopher, Pangborn), were the product of the Cold War and had a similat premise. You suggest a terrorist threat, but the outcome would be the same. How will you treat the subject differently? Do you think you have more to say about it than those before?

John

[Fendercaster]

I believe that if the entire government is wiped out, John Goodman inherits the position. :D

[flynjack1]

The government always takes precautions in the line of ascension so that there will be someone to take over in the case of a catastrophic attack. Short of an all out engagement with a well equipped enemy, things would settle out. It would be very unwise of a evil force to attempt a single point attack assuming loss of leadership.

[novaderrik]

I'm reminded of various cartoons and short stories of the theme that in alternate universes, populated by creatures like werewolves and hobbits, that the geeky inhabitants of those universes play role-playing games where they get to be accountants and IT people and chemists. :D

My level 10 accountant finds some strange entries in the payroll program and contacts IT.
Roll a saving throw. Nope, sorry, you've been audited.

that right there is some funny stuff, i don't care who you are..

[Sticks]

why does it always have to be New York or DC that gets attacked?

I remember a news magazine cover from a number of years ago that was titled (roughly) "New York vs Washington DC: Why we hate them both." That might answer your question.

As to the damage done by a tactical nuke at ground level, it depends a lot on where it's placed and the yield. Tactical nukes yields ranged all the way from multi-kiloton to the sub-kiloton (the smallest I ever read about was equal to about 20 tons of TNT). If your antagonist wanted to take out both the White House and Congress, it'd need to be a fairly sizeable weapon. Those buildings are a fair distance apart and pretty stongly built.

That kind of helps in me getting this bit right.

Meanwhile, these devices will be stolen former Soviet Battlefield nukes. Any data on them as opposed to the American ones?

[Jens]

I assume that in an absolute worst case scenario, where all of congress and the cabinet were assassinated, and for example DC was obliterated, then I think the governors of the remaining states would probably agree to appoint a caretaker and schedule elections for a new president and congress, and that the military would continue to function without a commander in chief.

[Ilya]

It is probably very unlikely that the entire Cabinet and Congress would be in one place on any given day.
Not only unlikely, but illegal -- or at least contrary to a long-standing policy. Twenty next people in line after President are NEVER all in the same city.

[Larry Jacks]

Meanwhile, these devices will be stolen former Soviet Battlefield nukes. Any data on them as opposed to the American ones?

You can probably find some info on the FAS or Global Security websited mentioned above. Due to their unfortunate policy regarding classified information, both of those websites are blocked at my work so I can't point you to any specific info.

[raptorthang]

why does it always have to be New York or DC that gets attacked? .

Because it's not about physical destruction but about maximum reaction. A gang of whackos hijack a couple of planes and the resulting Helter Skelter consequences help destroy the USA's moral standing in the world. ....have some more Freedom Fries and want to see tourist photos of the Abu Graib Hilton?

Back to the tactical weapon. The ultimate terrorism isn't in setting off a tactical nuke...it's setting one off and then claiming to have a second one 'ready to go' with no further information given. It might paralyze society....paralyze it more if a second one was exploded in small-city USA like Wichita or Spokane...nobody would feel safe anywhere.

[Noordung]

Nuclear Weapons Archive has some data on Soviet weapons, and the data on their testing includes yield:

http://www.nuclearweaponarchive.org/Russia/index.html

Here's Globalsecurity's Russian/Soviet page. There's nothing like the amount of detail on the US weapons:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/russia/index.html

Here's FAS. It looks pretty similar, with much more detail on delivery systems than warheads:

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/index.html

Johnston's archive is run by an individual, but he's a physics Ph. D. candidate and seems to know the subject. Here's his page on Soviet warheads, which is far more detailed (at least as to yield, IOC and number produced):

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/wrjp159r.html



It sounds like, for the purposes of the story, you wouldn't need immense amounts of detail. Once you've determined how big a burst you're assuming you can compare these to the US weapons to estimate their physical parameters.


If by "tactical" your main thought is something very small (and thus presumably easier to sneak in) then look at the W-54. It was a variable yield weapon used in everything from air-defense missiles to recoilless rifles. In the latter configuration (known as "Davy Crockett" in the US and "Wee Gwen" in the UK) the round only weighed a little over 50 lbs. Note that the way weapons' effects scale the main killing effect of these small weapons is radiation (even without any sort of "neutron bomb" design). Here are a couple of pages discussing their effects:

http://www.nuclear-weapons.info/vw.htm#Wee%20Gwen%20Military%20Characterisics%20an d%20quantities

http://www.guntruck.com/DavyCrockett.html


I've never heard specifically of the Soviets having built such, but the US had them by the late '50s so I would presume the Soviets were capable of it. Johnston's does note a couple of proposed warheads of 0.1 kT (about 10 times their yield), but doesn't show anything smaller than 0.5 kT (a 1992 vintage 152mm artillery round) having been produced. Their equivalent of the US SADM (the infamous "suitcase bomb," another W-54 application) is listed as having a 1 kT yield.

These sub-kiloton weapons still seem to be a sensitive subject. Here's a youtube of sub-kiloton tests from the "Hardtack" series in 1958. "Sanitization" has removed the whole soundtrack (barring an intro), but there's still some graphical data presented.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asKtfpjdQyA

[Sticks]

The idea is that these are mini nukes that can be fired from an artillery piece

Something similar to this Youtube clip (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE2NxuaoT0U)

According to This link (http://www.nuclearweaponarchive.org/Russia/Sovwarhead.html) the bottom one, if I read it right was 76 kilotons

Incidentally I found this cute clip about the W5-4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im3Hg7Zu-eA). I liked the bit where it was revealed that the people who fired it were also in the blast zone :doh:

I may go with 1kt as the bad guys using them are not humans and are not that familiar with them. They normally use other weapons when they go to war on their own world.

Or would that 76kt weapon be more likely if disgruntled former soviet scientists were selling them on the black market?

[Noordung]

That cannon clip is shot Grable from the Upshot-Knothole series of '53. Its yield is given as 15kT (about the same as Hiroshima):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Upshot-Knothole_Grable

That other clip is from the History Channel, who doesn't traditionally let the truth stand in the way of a good story. That guy at the end who says the firing crew was within the "blast" radius is flatly wrong. Neither were they within the lethal radius of the prompt radiation.

The actual issue was the fallout, which was pretty strong for this weapon because the fireball didn't carry it up as high as a larger yield's would (thus dispersing it over a wider area but at a lesser concentration). The firing crew thus could have been in serious trouble if the wind was in their direction and they didn't have holes to crawl into (preferably with overhead protection), but there have been a lot of military systems through history that were known to be quite risky to friendly forces. First World War soldiers learned that "hugging" a creeping barrage killed a few of them, but fewer than the enemy would if they lagged behind it. So, yes, it was a weapon of desperation but not the suicide machine that urban legend has made it. Indeed, I suspect that escalation issues were probably a bigger factor in its being withdrawn from service.

Davy Crockett was actually test fired during the '62 Ivy Flats series. Talkingstucktv also has the declassified films of that, but I can't find it. Sadly, they've posted over 70 of these declassified films but didn't label a single one. But here's the wiki on the shots:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Feller_(nuclear_tests)


But anyway, if you're looking at Soviet nuclear artillery rounds then, according to Johnston's, it looks like in the '90s they fielded 0.5, 1, 4 and 10 kT rounds, with the 1kT possibly being an enhanced radiation weapon. Any of them would make quite a mess of a city.

[galacsi]

I am doing preliminary research for a story, I hope to write.

The latest in my Mystical Realms series FWIW

This question of something I am toying with I suspect is not available in Wikiepdia (Although by Murphy's law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_law) I could be wrong on that :shifty: )

The idea is this.

Bad guys from the Mystical Realms get hold of former Soviet battlefield tactical nuclear warheads and explodes one in Washington DC and others in a number of US cities like New York

How much damage would one do?
Assuming the President and Vice president and whole of congress it wiped out, who constitutionally takes charge.

The motive of the bad guys is to provoke the US to fire retaliation missiles at Russia and start world war three. Their ultimate aim is to soften humanity up so they can send in armies to conquer any survivors and "take Earth", so the main baddie who is leading the escapade can lay claim to a throne on the grounds of being a superior warrior.

What a great and innovative scenario ! About the damage did you thought to travel to Japan and pay a visit to Hiroshima Museum ?

[mike alexander]

How about The Nuclear Holocausts Bibliography (http://www.wsu.edu:8080/~brians/nuclear/a.htm#A)?

JohnD asked what more could be written on such a topic? I suggest waiting for Sticks to produce and find out.

Being of the 'Duck and cover' generation myself, I'll be curious.

I mean, 'Boy meets girl' has aalso been around a while.

[Swift]

I mean, 'Boy meets girl' has aalso been around a while.
Oh no, not another boy meets girl, boy loses girl, boy joins terrorists from another dimension who steal a Russian tactical nuclear weapon, boy gets girl back story. ;)

[Sticks]

More like


Ahh you almost got me, you will have to wait like those on the forum when i publish later this year ;)

[korjik]

The idea is that these are mini nukes that can be fired from an artillery piece

Something similar to this Youtube clip (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE2NxuaoT0U)

According to This link (http://www.nuclearweaponarchive.org/Russia/Sovwarhead.html) the bottom one, if I read it right was 76 kilotons

Incidentally I found this cute clip about the W5-4 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=im3Hg7Zu-eA). I liked the bit where it was revealed that the people who fired it were also in the blast zone :doh:

I may go with 1kt as the bad guys using them are not humans and are not that familiar with them. They normally use other weapons when they go to war on their own world.

Or would that 76kt weapon be more likely if disgruntled former soviet scientists were selling them on the black market?

If you are talking black market, then anything is possible.

I dont remember the russians having anything as small as 10kT for a battlefield tac nuke, but it has been a while since I was in the loop. Hiroshima is probably a minimum for the effects of a modern weapon.

[Sticks]

According to this earlier link (http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclear_weapon_effects/nuclearwpneffctcalc.html), using 10kt the whole of DC is just about wiped off the map by the look of things.

Other targets in the story I am working on will be NY, Caracus, Venezuela and Dublin and possibly one unnamed city in the North East of England.

[geonuc]

According to this earlier link (http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclear_weapon_effects/nuclearwpneffctcalc.html), using 10kt the whole of DC is just about wiped off the map by the look of things.

How do you figure? I set the application to 10KT and neither a ground burst or an air burst wiped out all of DC.

[Sticks]

I am not able to re-do this at work, so I will re-try at home incase I put in the wrong value.

Also DC may be a bit bigger thhan I thought.

[Larry Jacks]

There are a lot of factors that go into determining the extent of damage caused by an explosion (including nuclear detonations). First, there's the explosive yield. Next, you need to consider whether it was a ground or air burst. An air burst will typically have a bigger blast radius. You also have to factor in the types of construction in the target area. Part of the reason those before and after pictures of Hiroshima are so stark is that most of the construction was light and easily destroyed. If you look again, you'll see that many of the more solidly built buildings were still standing although they were heavily damaged. One of the factors used for targeting is the degree of over pressure it takes to destroy a building. A blast creates a wave of high pressure and that's what does most of the damage. The more solidly built a building, the more over pressure it takes to destroy it. Now, over pressure spreads roughly in a rough sphere shaped pattern and decreases with distance (IIRC, it's a cube function so doubling the distance weakens the overpressure by a factor of 8).

In your scenario, you're looking at a tactical nuke with a yield on the order of 10 KT and you want it to have enough power to wipe out the Congress and the President. How far apart is the Capital building from the White House? How solidly constructed are the buildings? Where are the people in the buildings? By that, if they're in the rear of the buildings, you'll have to do more damage than if they're in the front of the buildings.

Off hand, I don't know if a 10 KT weapon would have enough power to ensure the results you want. I was last in DC several years ago. From what I remember, the Capital building was at one end of the national mall and the White House was at the other. That's a pretty long distance. Both buildings appeared to be solidly constructed. As to where the Oval Office is in relation to the front of the White House, I have no idea but you can certainly look it up. The same goes for determining where the congressional chambers are in relation to the front of the Capital building. Detonating such a device would certainly do a lot of damage and would wipe out much of the Smithsonian but it may not be enough to meet the requirements of your scenario.

[Sticks]

As I think about it, the scenario is that the non-human bad guys are setting these off at ground level, (So it is a ground burst), and are not really experts on these weapons. All they know is that "nukes" were considered by humans as super weapons and from the people who sold them how to set them to go off and scarper through their wormholes back to their world.

The aim as I mentioned in the OP is that they think that by doing this they will trigger a US retaliation against Russia which will cause World War III. Then the plan is to send in their armies to conquer any survivors and thus "take Earth" for political reasons back home, to cement a planned coup de tat against the government on their home world. This government has been secretly co-operating with the humans.

Given that, from what is said here it looks like DC is not going to be totally destroyed and maybe not all the line of succession will be wiped out.

This gives me a lot to think about :think:

I hope to start work on this sometime over the next back holiday, but before I get back to this I have to construct a lot of back story to explain the back ground of the chief villain

[Nick Theodorakis]

As I think about it, the scenario is that the non-human bad guys are setting these off at ground level, (So it is a ground burst), and are not really experts on these weapons. All they know is that "nukes" were considered by humans as super weapons and from the people who sold them how to set them to go off and scarper through their wormholes back to their world.

The aim as I mentioned in the OP is that they think that by doing this they will trigger a US retaliation against Russia which will cause World War III. Then the plan is to send in their armies to conquer any survivors and thus "take Earth" for political reasons back home, to cement a planned coup de tat against the government on their home world. This government has been secretly co-operating with the humans.

Given that, from what is said here it looks like DC is not going to be totally destroyed and maybe not all the line of succession will be wiped out.

This gives me a lot to think about :think:

I hope to start work on this sometime over the next back holiday, but before I get back to this I have to construct a lot of back story to explain the back ground of the chief villain

My gut feeling is that is a ground-level tactical nuke was set off in a US city, the government will probably think "terrorist" rather than a Russian attack.

Nick

[galacsi]

As I think about it, the scenario is that the non-human bad guys are setting these off at ground level, (So it is a ground burst), and are not really experts on these weapons. All they know is that "nukes" were considered by humans as super weapons and from the people who sold them how to set them to go off and scarper through their wormholes back to their world.

The aim as I mentioned in the OP is that they think that by doing this they will trigger a US retaliation against Russia which will cause World War III. Then the plan is to send in their armies to conquer any survivors and thus "take Earth" for political reasons back home, to cement a planned coup de tat against the government on their home world. This government has been secretly co-operating with the humans.

Given that, from what is said here it looks like DC is not going to be totally destroyed and maybe not all the line of succession will be wiped out.

This gives me a lot to think about :think:

I hope to start work on this sometime over the next back holiday, but before I get back to this I have to construct a lot of back story to explain the back ground of the chief villain

Get out of this moderator body , you devilish conspiracy mind !

[Scamp]

As previously discussed, During the State of the Union precautions are taken.

However I wonder. If the villain first sets off a nuc in say London would not all the DC power players come running back to DC? Especially if the act was blamed on some group like the IRA who would not be expected to target the USA.



Note: If you are a real terrorist and I just helped you with a plan to decapitate the US Goverment, I'm gonna kick your'er arse.

[Sticks]

I am not sure if my villain will be targeting London

I am still casting for the hench beings who will be the footsoldiers in this one. So far in my stories most of the arch villains have been human. I thought it was time for a non-human villain and a homage to the very first villain I ever had, when my season one, as I later called it aired as it were on a forum that no longer exists.

To show I am not secretly planning a capitation strike, I have already posted on the place where I publish, this trailer (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14CHenxFkRM)

Which I plan to be one of a number, possibly three. The second trailer is done, it is just not on YouTube at this time as I may make that one the third trailer before I publish later in the summer. (Assuming I am able to get to work on this)

[Ara Pacis]

In your scenario, you're looking at a tactical nuke with a yield on the order of 10 KT and you want it to have enough power to wipe out the Congress and the President. How far apart is the Capital building from the White House? How solidly constructed are the buildings? Where are the people in the buildings? By that, if they're in the rear of the buildings, you'll have to do more damage than if they're in the front of the buildings.

Off hand, I don't know if a 10 KT weapon would have enough power to ensure the results you want. I was last in DC several years ago. From what I remember, the Capital building was at one end of the national mall and the White House was at the other. That's a pretty long distance. Both buildings appeared to be solidly constructed. As to where the Oval Office is in relation to the front of the White House, I have no idea but you can certainly look it up. The same goes for determining where the congressional chambers are in relation to the front of the Capital building. Detonating such a device would certainly do a lot of damage and would wipe out much of the Smithsonian but it may not be enough to meet the requirements of your scenario.

I recall reading something about the construction of the White House and Capitol Building that suggested they were relatively soft targets. A lot of people will look at the Hiroshima photos and recall that a dome structure that was near the hypocenter of the explosion remained partially standing. If I read correctly, that was a fairly modern building constructed of reinforced concrete due to earthquake hazards. However, the Capitol Building is constructed of basic stone block masonry with a cast-iron dome. The blast wave in the fictional scenario will be coming not from above, but from the side (and a ground shock from underneath), and may cause a substantial failure of the Capitol Building's unreinforced masonry and brittle ironwork.

The Capitol and the White House are about a mile and a half apart. Based on this blast map calculator here (http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html#) a 15kt blast centered near the 800 block of Pennsylvania Avenue would find both the Capitol building and the White House just outside the 5psi radius. However, masonry and other detritus from nearby buildings would become missiles that might crash into both buildings and cause severe damage, possibly to the point of failure.

here (http://www.carloslabs.com/node/16)'s another one that lets you nuke anything on google maps

I don't know the background of your story, but it wouldn't be a stretch to use tactical nukes with a larger yield. In fact, I think it would be hard to come across nukes with yields that small these days. You'd be hard pressed to find anything in current US or Russian inventories with a yield lower than 100kt, although a few might have Dial-a-Yield minimums of a few kt.

[Sticks]

The idea is that these weapons were the ones that were around at the end of the Cold War and vanished in the chaos as the Soviet Union fragmented, hence their availability on the black market.

I assume that the more modern ones are more tightly controlled.

[Noordung]

There are some issues with weapon maintenance. Anything that uses tritium boosting experiences fairly rapid decay, and I have heard suggestions that the initial neutron sources also degrade. Over longer periods there are apparently even issues with the oxidation of the fissile material.

Looking at the FAS data for the US stockpile circa 2007, it still lists several hundred B61s with variable yields as low as 0.3 kT and 0ver a thousand W80s with 5 kT minimum yields.

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Wpngall.html

A number of people have already commented on the difficulties of a successful decapitation. Certainly during the Cold War precautions against such became second nature, and while I wouldn't be surprised if they were relaxed to some degree during the '90s I'm sure they've been reviewed post 9/11. I'd imagine that really pulling it off would require some bunker-busting.

Still, a lot of confusion and casualties would be created by even an unsuccessful attempt. You don't necessarily need to flatten a building to cause severe casualties inside it (though they do reduce the rates considerably). Since you're already assuming a co-ordinated attack on several cities, there doesn't seem any reason why you couldn't also assume multiple small weapons on priority targets within a city. Enhanced radiation weapons might also make success more likely.

On the other hand, in terms of disruption and provocation you might consider a high altitude burst to mess with electronics on a national scale. This could be alone or in conjunction with a point attack.

It seems to me that, for story purposes, the logical thing to do is just work out the effect you want and then back-construct an attack large and sophisticated enough to achieve it.

It's a bit depressing, but I am trying to digest those chapters from Capabilities of Nuclear Weapons that I recently found. If you do settle on an attack profile I could run some calcs for you. Between those and Effects you can pretty well estimate the resulting damage of a given burst.

[Sticks]

Out of curiosity was there a plan by the west to deal with the threat of battle field nukes being sold on the black market as the Soviet Union disintergrated. I seem to remember there were a lot of scare stories about unstable regimes getting hold of them in the chaos

I was basing the idea of my villains getting hold of nukes on those concerns, as I suspect such weapons today are more tightly controlled.

My chief villain has a plan to achieve her objectives, and whether it will actually work is the reason for these musings. They will have been sold on how deadly and feared nukes were by humans so sees any they can get hold of as instrumental to their plans.

The main villain, is highly intelligent, cunning, ruthless and is driven by revenge and a lust for power and the throne they believe is rightfully theirs.

[Noordung]

Oh, indeed, that was quite an issue at the time. For one thing, you had a lot of small successor states that already had the weapons, and no one really knew how stable they might turn out to be.

I don't know how powerful your assumed villain is supposed to be, but from the sound of it I doubt coming up with the weapon would be that difficult. Assuming they have basic physics knowledge and a source of fissile material a simple "gun" type weapon is disturbingly easy to make.

Actually, there might be some interesting ramifications of a villain making their own weapon with an alternate technology. For instance, if you postulate a bomb that was a pure fusion weapon the initial bang would look much like any other. However, analysis would then show pretty bizarre bomb debris and activation effects at the target. Might make an interesting plot twist, trying to work out the implications of that in the midst of an international crisis.

[Ara Pacis]

The idea is that these weapons were the ones that were around at the end of the Cold War and vanished in the chaos as the Soviet Union fragmented, hence their availability on the black market.

I assume that the more modern ones are more tightly controlled.

http://www.nuclearweaponarchive.org/Usa/Weapons/Allbombs.html
http://www.nuclearweaponarchive.org/Russia/Sovwarhead.html

Here are some links to historic nuclear weapons of both the US and Russia/Soviet Union. Look for one that seems to fit the bill and was available in the timeframe of your story. For example, some were decommissioned well before the end of the cold war and some are still around.

[Sticks]

By a bizarre coincidence I found this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnnpJA1aiQ8)

I did a few simulations, namely of a 100 ton nuclear demolition charge, a 22 kiloton implosion bomb, a 400 kiloton thermonuclear bomb, a 1.6 megaton hydrogen bomb, and the "Queen Mother of Nuclear Weapons", the Tsar Bomba. All of them detonated at the base of the Washington Monument in Washington DC.


His disclaimer to Homeland Security was cute :lol:

So if a 76kt or a 10kt device is detonated near the Whitehouse or using this video at the Washington Monument, would Bethesda be flattened. Notably the Naval hospital there?

One other thought, If NORAD were taken out, would the missiles in their silos launch automatically? I got that from the film Wargames

There is an urban legend that says if the BBC Radio 4 Today programme is off air for more than a day, British Polaris Submarine must assume the UK has been wiped out, and they should proceed to launch retaliatory strike

Maybe my chief villain will target London after all, well at least Broadcasting House :shifty:

[geonuc]

One other thought, If NORAD were taken out, would the missiles in their silos launch automatically? I got that from the film Wargames
I sure hope not. US strategic defenses rely on human initiation.

[Larry Jacks]

One other thought, If NORAD were taken out, would the missiles in their silos launch automatically? I got that from the film Wargames


Absolutely not. First of all, NORAD doesn't control missiles. USSTRATCOM does. Second, missiles have humans in the loop. There's nothing automatic about it.

[Sticks]

OK I might spare NORAD :whistle:

So about Bethesda or the housing at Quantico?, Would a 76kt device detonated near Capital Hill or the Whitehouse reach that far.

I know I have the maps, but am not familiar with the geography of the area

[geonuc]

OK I might spare NORAD :whistle:

So about Bethesda or the housing at Quantico?, Would a 76kt device detonated near Capital Hill or the Whitehouse reach that far.

I know I have the maps, but am not familiar with the geography of the area
It's not real hilly. Bethesda is about 8-9 miles away, as the crow flies, but Quantico Marine base is over 30 miles, judging from a glance at Google maps. Seems like Quantico wouldn't be affected.

[Sticks]

It's not real hilly. Bethesda is about 8-9 miles away, as the crow flies, but Quantico Marine base is over 30 miles, judging from a glance at Google maps. Seems like Quantico wouldn't be affected.

So how bad would it be at Bethesda?

[geonuc]

So how bad would it be at Bethesda?
I don't know. Did you put 76kt into that damage application you linked to earlier?

[Larry Jacks]

At 76 kt, you'd be well outside the primary blast, radiaiton and heat radius at 8-9 miles. The overpressure at that yield and distance would probably be less than 4 PSI, meaning you'd have damage (e.g. blown out windows) but probably not collapse. Initial radiation exposure would be pretty high but probably survivable by most people. Fallout radiation exposure would depend on wind direction and exposure duration. It sure wouldn't be nice to be there but most people would survive.

[Sticks]

I don't know. Did you put 76kt into that damage application you linked to earlier?

After looking at this link (http://meyerweb.com/eric/tools/gmap/hydesim.html), and dialling in, and then locating Bethesda. it looks like Bethesda Naval Hospital is well outside the coloured rings.

The assumption is the target is Capital Hill.

[Sticks]

Initial radiation exposure would be pretty high but probably survivable by most people.

I assume this would be Gamma radiation. How high would this be in terms of usual exposure at that distance?

Now to work on how Manhattan gets it :whistle:

Incidentally for when I start publishing this, much later this summer, I did wonder about using that style device they use on some TV shows, where the story starts at some dramatic part, and then they start telling the story in flash back as to how they got to that point. Then once they get back to where they started they move forward.

Is this a good idea, or does it suck?

I have drafted the first episode, which is mostly flashback to give backstory to the main villain by giving the genesis of a previous villain, who was deemed to have been killed several stories ago (My season three). However I am not quite satisfied with it, hence wondering about style ideas

[publiusr]

What was the kinetic energy equiv. of the collapse of the Twin Towers themselves?

In some respects, I would think a low yield blast might have higher casualties located say, in the NASCAR infield before 100,000+ patrons than spread out in NYC with structures taking most of the blow.

[Sticks]

One other thing that occurred to me, assuming a 76kt yield, based on the earlier pictured soviet battlefield nuke, what would be the range and effect of any EMP effect?

[Ara Pacis]

I assume this would be Gamma radiation. How high would this be in terms of usual exposure at that distance?It was my understanding that prompt radiation effects are subsumed by the thermal and blast effects. The wikipedia article here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions) repeats what I recall reading elsewhere: "With larger weapons, above 50 kT (200 TJ), blast and thermal effects are so much greater in importance that prompt radiation effects can be ignored." Remember that there can be neutron activation of the ground material near ground zero.

Incidentally for when I start publishing this, much later this summer, I did wonder about using that style device they use on some TV shows, where the story starts at some dramatic part, and then they start telling the story in flash back as to how they got to that point. Then once they get back to where they started they move forward.

Is this a good idea, or does it suck?That device is called in medias res (in the middle of things (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_medias_res)). It can be spectacular when done well, but confusing if done poorly.

One other thing that occurred to me, assuming a 76kt yield, based on the earlier pictured soviet battlefield nuke, what would be the range and effect of any EMP effect?IIRC, there would be a prompt effect along and/or under the surface of the earth near the hypocenter, but it's range isn't much farther than the fireball. There would be no long range effect since the EMP attack scenario requires a very high altitude burst. In the dense atmosphere near the surface, the gamma rays will be absorbed and converted to blast energy. It may be plausible that powerlines and other wires might get a surge from the ground pulse if they are close to ground zero, but it's much more likely that they would be vaporized or pulverized first. A buried cable close enough to getthe surge but not damaged from the shock might receive a pulse and pass it on, but I can't recall how powerful it might be.

While you're at it, consider the possibility that some material may become airborne projectiles, such as concrete building debris. I recall a bit my John McPhee writing about the result of a 1kT terrorist nuke going off in the WTC and projectile damage would cause more damage than the primary blast. Of course, that's a near-surface burst with horizontal and even elevated material to propel. If the explosion in your story is a surface burst you may get some of those projectiles, but if it's an air-burst, you may not depending on angles and distance and overpressure. Oh, and if the nuclear weapon has a lot of horizontal velocity (such as an artillery shell or missile) then you can get more wind damage from the so-called "Precurser Effect" where the fireball itself seems to move laterally due to inertia inerited from the delivery mode.

[HenrikOlsen]

That device is called in medias res (in the middle of things (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_medias_res)). It can be spectacular when done well, but confusing if done poorly.
Both Firefox (Out of Gas episode, worked really well) and BSG (every episode I've seen, really confusing) comes to mind.

[Nick Theodorakis]

Both Firefox (Out of Gas episode, worked really well) and BSG (every episode I've seen, really confusing) comes to mind.

It's certainly a very old story telling technique; The Odyssey begins that way, for example.

Nick

[Sticks]

That device is called in medias res (in the middle of things (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_medias_res)). It can be spectacular when done well, but confusing if done poorly.

Looking at the technical limitations of the site where I publish, I may not be able to do this trick anyway :(

The way I operate is I craft each episode in word and then paste into the forum where I publish. Unfortunately, if the post is too long it truncates the post on submitting, although annoyingly it does not truncate on the preview :mad:

So on two of my story lines I have had to post an episode over two posts. Looking at my script for the first episode, it looks like I am pushing towards that limit.

Most of it is about the rise and fall of the Lord Low Troll, first ever bad guy that was the villain of my first story line I did "by accident" in 2001. In that sordid tale is the "blink and you will miss it" origin of the new villain

Originally the idea was to start at the point when the first of the atomic bombs detonates, as a minor character witnesses it from several miles away and then cutting to the past, but with the limitations of the forum, that may not be possible if I want to avoid splitting an episode over two posts.

On another matter, the site I publish was originally a fan site for the UK Big Brother game show, but over the years it sort of diversified, so like last year I may have to wait until after the first eviction of that show before I publish, as by then the spike in traffic for the BB game show will have passed.

[Sticks]

One other thought, If NORAD were taken out, would the missiles in their silos launch automatically? I got that from the film Wargames


Absolutely not. First of all, NORAD doesn't control missiles. USSTRATCOM does. Second, missiles have humans in the loop. There's nothing automatic about it.

Just reading back through this lot, as I started publishing last weekend, however the episodes will take longer.

Anyway, i think I got confused with the plot of the film in which the idea was to take humans out of the loop. :doh: