http://www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=113784

according to this site, there is a space rock 1300 feet long that has a 1 in 300 chance of hitting the Earth in 2029. Any thoughts?

It seems like it's a bit of a waste of time for me to think much of anything about it. Data to come will refine the probability, probably lower it. I can wait.

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I think I'll worry about in 25 year's time - by then, if I'm still around, I'll be 78

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By asking questions we sometimes get the wrong answers, from wrong answers we learn to ask the right questions.

This website has the asteroid coming within 0.003259 AU (about 300,000 miles) of Earth in 2029. That seems like a pretty safe distance. It also lists two asteroids, 2001WN5 and 1999AN10, that will approach closer then that before 2029.

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What's it like being a skeptic in the Middle East? Check out my blog.

Re: 2004 MN4

Actually, at the time of this writing, the 'odds' of Earth vs. ‘MN4 impact range from: 1:125 (i.e. 8.01*10^-3) (NeoDys) to 1:233 (i.e. 4.3*10^-3) (JPL)

But here's the deal:

Assuming said probability resolves to 1 (a dubious assumption at best!)

1) The 'Yield' corollary to said event would not likely exceed 2GT (TNT EQV) – Troublesome to be sure - but FAR from apocalyptic!!! (Of course if it's fretting that you do - please don't allow me to ruin your fun! - You may always entertain the notion that 'MN4's albedo is very low (this would result in size/mass, and, hence, impact energy, underestimation) or, better yet, that it is composed of a nasty isotope (e.g. 100 billion Kgs of, say... Co 90 would 'warm' things up a bit'! Do pardon my ‘care and feeding’ of your nightmares - Ya see, I'm a bored man


2) Were we unable to 'work-out' a means of deflecting a ~ 420 meter asteroid given a quarter century’s lead-time we'd get no worse than our deserts!!!

Well, anyway, that'll be my junket for the nonce!

Respectfully
D. Sarandon

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I'll be 72. Besides we only need 18 days and Bruce Willis.

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Bruce will be 74 by then! ... unless he's put in stasis until called upon.

Ah! but will we be able to sit on a bench, reminisce and say, "I remember when I was a kid we used to get real Earth destroying asteroids, not like the li'l fizz-ducks you get now."?

Edit: yeah sure 'nuff - old Brucie will need his bus pass by then as well

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He's right, you know. Don't nobody tell bmpbmp about this until it's over.

Fred

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I have to give the CNN story props. It seems to go out of its way to say "Relax, almost certainly nothing, got a ton of people looking into it" which I gotta applaud =D>

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Wow... I'll be 40 by then. But anything smaller than a global extinction level, I won't be worried.

Get the marshmallows ready!!!

Liability to collision now stands at 1 in 60 (for a Palermo figure > 1 [i.e. a factor of 10+ above ‘background’ liability])

Given the protracted (observation) arc (188 days), it would seem a definite 'answer' must needs await Arecibo's proposed radar survey (next month)...

Ok! Time for me to exercise my First Amendment/Atlantic Charter rights (but with conscientious effort at avoidance of engendering excessive annoyance among the obsessive )

Personally, it is my desire that 2004 MN4 IS INDEED found to define an impacting trajectory! - As the adage holds: 'Necessity is the mother of invention' - Realistically, robust research and development of 'impactor management' infrastructure/technology is in dire need of a 'fire' under a few backsides! --- Lest we be ‘caught out’, unprepared, by a long-period comet or otherwise highly ‘challenging’ object offering negligible lead-time...

The day is long since passed that the impact threat is afforded the attention and resource commitment deserved and required of its languishing, largely voluntary, programs! Perhaps 'MN4 will serve as both 'catalyst' and 'reagent' in this regard… I, for one, hope so!

Sincerely
D. Sarandon

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My formula for success is never to talk about a successful formula, because it's bound to go wrong!

Currently Torino Scale 4 up from an initial 2.

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Time to Break Out the Nukes ...

So, a Couple Dozen Initiations off its Port Bow ...

Think that'd Do it?

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On the bright side, that's two days before tax time. \/

The real problem is exemplified by the recent pass of a rock. We will never see the bad one coming since it will be aimed straight at us. It will have no apparent motion and will be the "fly on the windshield". As a pilot I can tell you the most dangerous and hardest to spot hazard is the plane (object) that is on a collision course. It stays in the same place on the "windshield" until it hits.

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When I am done here I think I will go create something from metal.

Evan wrote:

Respectfully, as applied to the PHO threat, the above observation holds only for imminent impacts (i.e. very close and/or very, very fast objects - such that their Earth-relative motion might be regarded as pure linear for said purpose) - at which time we've already 'blown it'...

An object on a colliding trajectory (even was its path linear) as little as a few weeks 'out' would neither appear to be, nor, at time of observation, indeed be, directly approaching Earth - owing to the latter's angular motion about the Sun --- IOW, viewed prior to collision, an impactor's trajectory, on its final (i.e. colliding) approach, would be seen to 'include' an inopportune position within 1 Earth radii of Earth's orbital arc (i.e. a position to be occupied by Earth at collision time) -- as opposed to Earth’s pre-collision position[s]...

Please don't misinterpret my tone! Your vehicular analogy is spot-on where spatial and, hence, temporal propinquities admit implementation of a linear paradigm.

With genuine respect and very best regards
Dan Sarandon

Edit for perspicuity and clarity of ‘tone’

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My formula for success is never to talk about a successful formula, because it's bound to go wrong!

Tout...in layman's terms?

We are all going to die. Some sooner, some later. Wouldn't it be great if we could all go out at one time yelling and screaming like the passengers in my car? :roll:

On the bad side, April 13, 2029 is a Friday.

It Shouldn't be too Tough to Divert it.

Heck, I say we Fire off Some Nukes at it Anyway, it'll Give us a Better Idea, of What we Should Do, IF, we Ever Have a Real Danger!

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If you Ignore YOUR Rights, they Will go away.

Musasa remarked/requested Re: my discussion of apparent motion (above):

As regards astronomy I'm a layman myself?!?!


WTCMB, with many thanks for your patience I'll try again

Succinctly;

With attention to the qualifications (below): An Earth impactor on its impacting approach does not approach Earth's current position, but, rather, the position (on Earth's orbit) coincident with impactor intersection and Earth occupation (i.e. Earth's position at impact)...

While, strictly speaking, the above is valid wherever the distance between Earth's current position and the 'point of impact' is greater than 1 Earth radius + 1 impactor radius -- As a practical matter, dependant upon impactor velocity, several days to several weeks will be required to surmount the difficulty described by Evan (i.e. observational difficulties owing to 'zero parallax')

Hope this delivers my meaning from its veritable 'Mirkwood' of words...

Very best regards
Dan

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My formula for success is never to talk about a successful formula, because it's bound to go wrong!

Basically he means that asteroids, like planets move in curves not in straight lines and so the analogy is not relly correct, unless the object is very close or very fast in which case we're screwed because we didn't do our jobs right previously.

Evan's claim works fr items that move in a linear fashion, ie stright lines, but when you move in a curve, its not really possible for an object to remain directly in front of you as you and it move.

The biggest danger, and this was stated by BA on C2C the other night, is the asteroid that comes at us directly out of the glare of the sun. We can see planets between the sun and us, but asteroids are just too small and have the darker face twards us so we don't see them until it is too late, or if we are lucky, until they have gone past.

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Yeah, hopefully we have developed the technology to do that yet. I don't think we have it yet.

A 1 in 300 chance is still very small. I'd only get worried if impact chance was 1 in 10 or less.

We have it.

Stuart could gve you More Information, but I Believe we've had The Capabillity to Use The Nuke Method, Since the 60s.

It's the Less Explosive Methods, that'd be Harder.

In the Mean Time, I Say, FIRE AT WILL!

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If you Ignore YOUR Rights, they Will go away.

Odds are now 1 in 45, but it is likely to go zero when the asteroid's orbit is known well enough.

It's now a 1 in 45 chance.

At a risk of sounding like a woo woo... we need to, "watch the skies". Eventually, something good sized will line up to hit us. Being forewarned is the key. I'm hopeful that in 24 years or so, we'll be able to handle something if it is "heading right for us"!

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This puppy WILL hit Earth or (less likely) the Moon sometime in the coming millennia, with an orbit like that.

Does anyone know what hemisphere it would hit (if it does)?