Nice article on CNN website on Asteroid 2004 NM4 and the fact that it is the first asteroid on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale to ever have a value of greater than 1.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/1....ap/index.html

The only thing that bothers me is the caption showing a drawing of an asteroid hitting the Earth. Looking at the drawing, I would guess that the depicted asteroid is many miles long. The asteroid 2004 NM4 is only about 1430 feet. It's misleading, a little bit of Bad Astronomy, but does grab your attention. The GLP folks must be going nuts even though the chances are 1-in-300 for an impact on April 13, 2029.

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You guessed it! =D>

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See earlier topic: 2029 asteroid impact?

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It's now at Torino Level 4: Chances ar 63 to 1

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news146.html

That's still long odds. But they are shortening.

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The 2029 impact is ruled out now, on the basis of images found that show the asteroid prior to its discovery, allowing refinement of its trajectory.

Post subject: MN4, son, MN4 --- Lest you stand accused of nicking the mass-media's (proprietary?) dyslexic style!

Very best regards
Dan Sarandon

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According to NASA, 2004 MN4 would have an impact velocity of about 12.6 km/s. The most recent estimates of its size place its diameter at about 380 m. It is a rocky asteroid, given its density of 2.6 g/cm³. This would yield the following results as calculated at the Solar System Collisions page:

The Earth Impact Effects Program site by Jay Melosh, et al. gives the following results and the efffects felt by an observer 100 km from the blast:

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All the info is here. And it has been revised to 1 in 26,000 as of right now, so no worries. We're back to Torino 1.

As I said elsewhere, it looks as if in many ways the Dec. 26 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunamis were worse than an impact by 2004 MN4 would be. The energy involved is on the same order of magnitude. The earthquake's tsunamis were probably bigger than the impact's would be. The impact would have greater climatic effects, more like a large volcanic eruption (Tambora or Krakatoa). And it would cause mass death if it hit a populated city, but there, years of advance knowledge would be a great help.

That's standard NASA asteroid impact illustration #1. It gets pulled out whenever anyone mentions the possibility, even though it probably originally illustrated something like the dinosaur killer.

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I´m tired of that graphic. I´ve been seeing it for at least ten years. I´d say that that rock is a planetoid, not an asteroid. An impact against that body would probably create another moon, and send the Earth back to the Hadean age.

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I can't get the above cited image to load - however if you mean this one:



It's supposed to depict a 250 km (Dia) object (I would have said it was larger than that?)... And OH! YES! we're talkin 'Earth changes' beyond Lieder's wildest dreams (As in a Venusian atmosphere and a 'sea' of magma, several tens of km deep, for a surface...

But for the vagaries of fate - there toast we ;-) (Yeah my syntax sux, but what'cha gonna do @ 10:30 am? :,( )

Somnolently
Sarandon

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My formula for success is never to talk about a successful formula, because it's bound to go wrong!

I'll be in the cemetary (or nursing home at best) but you youngsters might want to look at Wikipedia for this object, especially this line:

On December 28 at 12:23 GMT and (based on a total of 139 observations), produced a value of one on the Torino scale for 2044-04-13.29 and 2053-04-13.51.

With those day fractions, what hemisphere would it be targeted at? Are there any other Torino One asteroids in the next half century?

Yes. That´s the classical bad image. If the planet depicted is Earth-sized, then the object is 1,200 km diameter. The "lake" appearing on the planet is within the hundred-km order of magnitude.

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After more research, all I can find is a Torino 1 for the end of June 1, 2101 for Asteroid (1997 XR2).

Can we have the discussion in the older and busier topic:

2029 asteroid impact?

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