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"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction." Shakespeare, Twelfth Night Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor "Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg "Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort |
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Until we can fully catalog the entire layouts of enough OTHER solar systems, you cannot judge anything by the layout of OUR solar system.
We've only detected a few hundred Jupiter-sized worlds outside our own system, so we don't even have the vaguest knowledge yet as to was is 'typical'.... |
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Bode’s Law was flawed right at its basis. It proposed that the set (0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96) is part of a doubling sequence. It is not. The initial value would have to be 1.5 to create a proper doubling sequence. The initial zero used to include Mercury in the “law” was a fudge factor that is frequently overlooked. Later, Neptune proved to deviate from the so-called law.
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Curt Renz - "Centaur" For monthly astronomical calendar visit: www.CurtRenz.com/astronomical.html |
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In science, a "law" is any mere statistical relation--it doesn't have to be a "rule" that things "must" follow. So, even if Bode's law does not apply to every solar system out there, it would still apply here.
However, I think there is something to Bode's law other than mere coincidence, but its more like a law of "biology", than a law of physics. Protoplanets "compete" for mass. As larger and larger protoplanets "grow" by "ingesting" matter out of the primordial disk, there is a limit to the "search space" they can cover governed by the average orbital eccentricity. In other words, Bode's Law is the result of "niche partitioning" among the major planets. Mercury's a little off because it's so close to the Sun that atmospheric drag from the Sun itself may have had an effect, plus there are also general relativity effects that aren't predictable using ordinary Newtonian orbital mechanics.
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"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" -- Charles Darwin |
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Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself. The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. -- Richard Feynman |
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"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" -- Charles Darwin |
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But I agree that in general we don't need to watch an entire orbit to compute its characteristics: just a long enough segment to allow the rest to be calculated with useful confidence. However, I think Kullat Nunu is suggesting that to be sure the observed pattern in the data is an orbit, we probably need to observe at least one cycle. Grant Hutchison |
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Well, they say Pluto has an orbital period of 248 years, but it was only discovered 1930. Do we really have to sit around for 248 years "to be sure" that Pluto's observed pattern really is an orbit?
Granted, the 2400 year period for 2M1207b was picked out of a hat--there's no telling at this point how eccentric its orbit is. But 2M1207b and 2M1207 were recently both shown to be a "common proper motion pair". If they're not in orbit around each other, what else would they be doing hanging around together? But my main point is just that we are getting useful data about planets that are not ultra-close to their parent star.
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"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" -- Charles Darwin |
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Grant Hutchison |
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Now, in pop-postmodernism, of course, all bets are off -- the "law" can be as lax as you will it.
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"All your bias are belong to us." Ara Pacis "A witty saying proves nothing." Voltaire Last edited by Disinfo Agent; 10-November-2007 at 11:47 PM. |
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Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself. The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. -- Richard Feynman |
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But I take back what I said about Bode's Law being a statistical law. I didn't mean that our solar system is somehow the average of all solar systems. Instead, I'll stick with the physical (or rather quasi-biological) basis I proposed to explain the striking, obviously nonrandom pattern we observe here. The initial conditions required to produce that pattern may be rare (single, bright star and well-organized disk), but given those initial conditions, one should expect a Bode's-like (logarithmic) spacing of planets.
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"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" -- Charles Darwin |
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Exceptions do not prove rules, they disprove them, even in statistics. If the law is statistical, then "exceptions" will turn up with a low frequency, which can quantified and checked against observation. If the observed proportion is inconsistent with the theoretical predictions, then something is wrong.
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"All your bias are belong to us." Ara Pacis "A witty saying proves nothing." Voltaire |
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The exceptions test the statistical rule: if they turn up in the wrong proportions, then the rule fails the test; if they turn up in the expected proportions, the rule passes the test. Grant Hutchison |
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And also the fact that an outlier just is so rare and odd carries with it the implication that the normal state of affairs is normal.
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"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" -- Charles Darwin |
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We don't know that it's rare. Only that it's more difficult to detect using current methods.
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"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction." Shakespeare, Twelfth Night Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor "Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg "Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort Last edited by Noclevername; 11-November-2007 at 10:26 PM. Reason: added current methods |