There is not agreement on how the sun is currently changing, how it will change, how the solar magnetic cycle will restart, or how the solar magnetic cycle changes will affect the planet. Jasper Kirkby's paper is only a review of the observations and one possible explanation for the observations.

This will be the first major solar event humans have observed in record history. We have not experienced the full range of the solar cycle.

We will fortunately or unfortunately (depending on what happens) have front row seats to this event, which will take a number of years to unfold.

Thank you William. I am fascinated with these moments in time. Certainly there have been other moments, but this is ours and I am enjoying all of the data and observational understanding. It is all very interesting.

As a younger man, I learned the importance of weather and its basics. Myself and my men's lives depended on understanding weather and geography. Now it is my family and my community's life I concern myself with. After living thru hurricane Rita and Ike, I am fully focused on everything natural and man made.

Thank you for provoking a deeper thought into the possibilities William. Tusenfem, I look forward to your work on the MRx data if I recall correctly. If this is not the proper acronym, I do apologize.

Yogi Berra says its hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

Though many may argue, this winter could easily be much colder and wetter. A crossroads in climate-time if you will, where the recorded increase in airborne H2O combine with a hasty decrease in temperature, and offer us a wet and cold experience this winter.

Time will tell............

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善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

Tusenfem, Correction accepted and acknowledged. I was merely attempting answer the question as to the importance of understanding the solar processes we have discussed in this thread.

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"A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again."

Alexander Pope, 1709

An update from spaceweather.com:

Deepening.

I've been following the sunspot count at this site for years. Three times now, since mid-2008, it's been cautiously announced that Cycle #24 seems to have started in good earnest. And then it fizzles again. I thought the last rash of sunspot activity (in June) probably was THE herald of an upswing in normal 'spot activity. Apparently not.

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There in the valley of Scorpio, beneath the Cross of jade
Smoking on the seashell pipe the gypsies had made
We sat and we dreamed a while...in that crystal thought time in Mexico. ~Donovan

I thought the same thing last November, but now I keep looking at the old records for something that matches our current quiet. It's there but which one do you pick 1913, we have surpassed its record now....Dalton Minimum, Or Maunder Minimum or something new altogether. It really is exciting, though in a very slow kind of way.

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"A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again."

Alexander Pope, 1709

If you look at the polarity and location of the few sunspots that have appeared, they ARE from cycle #24, there is absolutely no doubt about that. The real novelty here is that cycle #24 is very scarce on spots, but they're there.

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IIRC, last year, in the summer, it was mentioned on this thread that if the Sun continued on its course of a deep minimum for another year, we may want to consider it the beginning of a Maunder Minimum type cycle.

I don't recall whom made the statement but few argued this point, IIRC. Here we are, nearly 1.5 years later. Although predicting the future is likened to a Yogi Berra moment, it certainly is interesting.

The north east portion of our continent would argue that the 2009 summer was a pleasant surprise and on the cooler side of what is normal. It certainly wasn't expected by many. I would argue that my observations within my region of the continent were abnormally pleasant as well.

I love your wording flynjack, "It really is exciting, though in a very slow kind of way."

I am relieved that my family and community doesn't have to recover from another hurricane. We have rebuilt twice in three years. I could stand a little cooler weather.

I have chopped more firewood this summer, just in case. Smores anyone?

Time will tell.........

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Squeeze three kids outta your birthcanal and then you can tell me how tough your are, Ranger. -My wife

The scientific community has been relatively quiet on predictions since last year, due to the continued stubbornness of the sun to cooperate with their speculations. I find it refreshing that rather than continue to make predictions they are now focused on observing and gathering information. If the earths magnetic environment is difficult to understand with our many scientific satellites in orbit about it and ability to poke and prod the ground about us, then imagine the difficulty in understanding the processes taking place 93 million miles away? Don't get me wrong I understand the need to attempt to make predictions in order to validate theories, but just because one predicts an outcome correctly does not necessarily mean they understand the underlying mechanisms that occurred to bring about the results. Thats where the test of time and repetition comes in.

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"A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again."

Alexander Pope, 1709

Solar cycle 24 update.

http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/d...le-in-diretta/

Activate translator, copy link into translator and then set translator: Italian to English. (Or other language if you prefer.)

http://translate.google.com/translate_t#

The link is update daily. No new papers concerning the observations.

By the way, though, the density of the solar wind over the last couple of days seems to be really low. I just looked and it was 0.1. Maybe somebody is turning it off. But more seriously, is there somewhere I can to find a historical chart of the solar wind, like they have for sunspots? Needless to say, we can't go back 200 years, but it would be cool to see a chart for say the last full solar cycle.

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You can find lots and lots of data on CDAWeb, that's where I get my solar wind input for my research. You probably want to look at Wind and ACE and possibly ICE (which would be the renamed ISEE3).

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善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

An update from spaceweather.com: I was going to buy a Coronado solar telescope a couple of years ago, but am glad I didn't at the time considering how long and drawn out this minimum has been.

The current sunspot count is 30. That's a jump up from 0 yesterday. Thursday's count was 11, if I recall correctly.

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There in the valley of Scorpio, beneath the Cross of jade
Smoking on the seashell pipe the gypsies had made
We sat and we dreamed a while...in that crystal thought time in Mexico. ~Donovan

That's quite a complex sunspot group that's appeared. Also, looking at SOHO images, especially the magnetogram, there appear to be quite a few active regions. I wonder if activity is finally on the up?

It seems that activity is on the up. That being said, the question is where will it peak and will the flux continue to decrease towards 2015 as Penn and Livingstons work suggest. This cycle has been full of surprises so far so I look forward to more to come.

__________________
"A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again."

Alexander Pope, 1709

I don't think we can make any predictions for what kind of peak we will get at the next maximum anymore, the very deep solar minimum has taken many by surprise and wasn't predicted at all.

If I remember correctly, the consensus prediction three years ago was that cycle 24 would be an extremely active one, with a peak activity in early 2012, with daily averages of 200 Spots.

That prediction was based on several cycle studies of the solar conveyor - obviously there was a missing variable or two from that study....

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The solar magnetic ropes appear to continue to weaken in magnetic field intensity. The solar magnetic rope requires a magnetic field intensity of around 1500 gauss to survive the trip from the tachocline (interface of the radiative zone and convection zone) up through the convection zone to the surface of the sun. A consequence of the weakened magnetic field intensity is the solar magnetic rope arrives in pieces at the surface of the zone. (Hence the solar flares.)

http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-...type=Continuum

http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-...pe=Magnetogram

http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?I...tegory=Science

My bold
This does not make any sense at all.

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善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

If you look at this series of pictures of the last sun spot showing the evolution of its magnetic field, it arrive at the surface of the sun as magnetically complex. A mixture of opposite polarity field lines. If I understand the mechanism a solar flare is caused by a reconnection of magnetic field sets of opposite polarity.

In the case of solar cycle 24 the complex magnetic field would be created as the magnetic ropes are weak and turbulence in the convection zone is breaking apart the magnetic ropes as they rise through the convection zone. The resultant is many small flares.

The large flares are also caused during the highest part of the cycle when separate pairs of magnetic ropes rise up through the convection zone and interact on the surface of the sun. There are more flares when there are a greater number of magnetic ropes rising up through the convection zone.

The most powerful solar flares are caused when the rope production mechanism at the tachocline creates a strong asymmetrical set of ropes that moves up through the convection zone as a set.

http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-...pe=Magnetogram

This paper discusses large solar flares and the solar flare mechanism in general.


http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1538-4...d-1cd1c391a523

I see what you mean looking at the MDI Continuum and Magnetogram of 2009/10/31.

This quote from the article I found most disturbing because the thought had already occurred to me prior to reading the article:

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http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?I...tegory=Science


The Maunder minimum was preceded by a rump cycle. If there is no rump cycle, then this is not a Maunder minimum. My concern is the cycle restart.

Let's wait and watch. If the cycle does not restart there will be more papers and discussions.

Let's just hope it's nothing more than just a slightly unusual delay in the cycle. I'll keep an eye out for new papers and articles on the subject.

Besides, I have a perfectly good white light solar filter that's been collecting dust these last few years that is just dying to be used again! LOL

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“Out yonder there was this huge world, which exists independently of us human beings and which stands before us like a great, eternal riddle, at least partially accessible to our inspection and thinking. The contemplation of this world beckoned like a liberation.” - Albert Einstein

My Astronomy Site
My Geology Site

This is just word salat. "A mixture of opposite polarity field lines"? This may sound profound but does not mean a thing. Sure there are "north poles" and "south poles" on the surface of the sun, but the magnetic field lines are loops going from one to the other. Indeed between the loops reconnection can occur, creating a bigger loop. A solar flare, however, is the "explosion" of a large loop, mainly because of shearing motion of the footpoints of said loop, causing instabilities. One model of this process is discussed in detail by Aly and an application of it in an interesting place can be found in Volwerk, van Oss and Kuijpers.

I think you should study the literature a little better, because I have the impression that you don't really know how things work in the sun.

You should study the Schrijver papers, the paper you quote does not explain the mechanism, but just gives a bunch of generalities, and given your description of solar flares above, you seem to have made up your own idea from these generalities.

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善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

tusenfem,
What I have said is in agreement with observations. The paper I have quoted discusses sunspot and solar flare observations. I do not see how a theoretical paper on flares in the vincinity of a black hole or theoretical fields in infinite space is related.

The sunspot is a set of power magnetic fields (Compare the field strength of the sunspot to solar large scale magnetic field. The sunspot is orders of magnetitude stronger.) that moves up through the convection zone to the surface of the sun.

The point is that symmetry of the set magnetic field ropes which will form the sunspot affects wether a flare is produced. That comment has nothing to do with a salad. I do not understand your analogy. My comment is in agreement with the observations that are descibed in the paper that I quoted.

There is some connection between solar flares and CME, however, the relationship is not known.

When on the surface of the sun the sunspot field lines form the solar large scale magnetic field.

Please attribute your quotes so their context can be evaluated.

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Hi Henrik,

This is link to the paper that notes the source of the sunspot complexity is at the formation of the sunspot rope which is theorized to be at the tachocline (interface of the radiative zone and convection zone.)


Livingston and Penn have found that the intensity of the late cycle 23 and new cycle 24 sunspots is linearly dropping. It appears that the tachocline has been disturbed by the motion of sun about its barycenter. This solar cycle interruption was predicted by three different methods including analysis of past solar cycle minimums and the sun's barycentric motion.

As noted in my quote below the sunspot ropes require a magnetic intensity of around 10,000 gauss to survive trip through the solar convection zone.


http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1538-4...d-1cd1c391a523

http://www.amazon.com/Journey-Center.../dp/0691057818


Journey from the Center of the Sun by Jack Zirker

page 176. Good book, I would highly recommend it.

page 244

The next section explains the different theories and mechanisms concerning the creation of the magnetic ropes at the solar tachocline.

That is why the main paper was that of Aly and not mine at a black hole, that was just an application as I said.

"a set of power magnetic fields"? What is THAT supposed to mean?

"symmetry of the set magnetic field ropes"? What is THAT supposed to mean? You are really good at writing word salad.

A flare does is NOT created by various loops connecting through reconnection. A flare is the "explosion" of a magnetic loop, read the Aly paper to get the details. And yes, emergence of magnetic fields through the surface of the sun can lead immediately to flare activity but need not. There are movies galore that show initially stable magnetic loops on the sun that get sheared by foot point motion and then finally flare.


Nonsense


And apparently you found this part not important for some reason.

Which basically is the mainstream view of solar flares. If Hudson found that the largest flares do not follow the smooth development of normal flares, then so be it. However, it still does not mean that your ideas about "mixtures of polarity" and whatever other word salad you wrote down should be accepted as being the truth. That is only in your mind.

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善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

See my above comment for observations concerning solar flare occurrence and magnetic field complexity. The word I meant to use was "magnetic field complexity". I think we are in agreement.

I will respond later concerning CME and solar flares.

Are we argreement that the observations (Livingston and Penn's finding of a linear reduction in the sunspot magnetic field intensity.) confirm the sunspot ropes are formed at the tachocline?

The next few solar observational months will be interesting, in terms of what to expect for cycle 24. I have been researching CME and will start a thread in science.

http://solarscience.auditblogs.com/2...way-mea-culpa/