I find CME's fascinating. Not so great, though, when they're heading toward Earth! LOL

Eric

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Pardon me, if this isn't the appropriate time or place for this. I'd like both William's and tusenfem's relevant experience and education on this topic made clearer. It seems you are both reading the same material but coming to widely different conclusions.

CJSF

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Two years ago moved from my town
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I enjoy scientific research and scientific problems.

There is observational evidence that shows the sun has different types of magnetic minimums. As I said, the sun is moved about its barycenter by the large planets. That motion affects the solar tachocline (interface of the solar radiative zone and solar convection zone) changing how the magnetic ropes that form the sunspots are produced.

Solar cycle #24

Livingston and Penn have found that the magnetic field of each new individual sunspots is linearly declining at 77 gauss per year. As the sunspot rope requires a minimum magnetic field strength to survive its trip through the convection zone, it appears there will if the magnetic field decay continues, be a deep solar magnetic cycle interruption.

It is interesting (from a solar standpoint: cause) that there are significant cyclic geophysical events that seem to correlate with the restart of the solar magnetic cycle. I have found a series of new papers that illuminate the cause and effect, which I will present in a new thread in science.

http://www.astroengine.com/?p=678

The graph below is from the paper and was copied from the above link that discusses the paper.

http://97.74.127.8/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/mag1.png



http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2..._longrange.htm

http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/



http://www.ann-geophys.net/20/115/20...0-115-2002.pdf

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD....34.0603S

I have a PhD in plasma astrophysics and now work as a space physicist at the Space Research Institute of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. And here is my publication list.

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善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

Ok, so William, you like sciency things. Tusenfem is a published astrophysicist, who has done actual research involving solar physics. Thanks for clearing that up.

I'm not sure what to say to William's comments in light of this. It certainly helps me put some of your other posts (regarding AGW, for example) in a proper perspective.

Thanks again.

CJSF

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Two years ago moved from my town
I was looking up past the city lights
But the city lights got in my way

See the constellation ride across the sky
No cigar, no lady on his arm
Just a guy made of dots and lines

-from "See The Constellation"
by They Might Be Giants

I realize that this is a very high-level discussion, with sources provided and quoted that the average person probably could not understand. But it is a logical fallacy to presume that the person with greater formal training necessarily is better informed and even correct in both his interpretation or conclusions on this or any issue.

Because this is such a high-level discussion, I realize that it is difficult for most people to judge this discussion solely on the merits of the evidence provided and the validity of the arguments given. Nevertheless, the evidence and arguments given by each individual should be judge on their validity and merit and not be based on the credentials of either person.

With that said, I have heard both sides of this argument before and even the professional astrophysicists don't agree. Both William and tusenfem have each made compelling arguments for their respective cases. But, after having read the literature and understood what I have read, I'm going to tell you what I think. The bottom line is no one knows who is right. And no one knows what exactly is happening with our sun at this time. Nor do they know what is going to happen in the relatively near future. The jury is still out on this one. And everyone, including those with Ph.D.s in plasma astrophysics, is just going to have to wait and see what happens.

Eric

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There are experienced scientist on this board,such as tusenfem, and sometimes it seems to come across as a teacher/student relationship with the laymen among us. I view this as a positive. It is a professional necessity for scientist speak precisely and when we layman sometimes intrepret things too loosely we are reigned in by those with real experience. This is not to say that the layman can not make valid observations or intreptations that are productive. I would hope that the less experienced members might on occassion strike upon information that is helpful for the professionals who frequent BAUT. As I have said before I think cycle 24 may be a watershed event for solar science since the suns behaviour is showing trends not seen so far in the space age.

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I'll continue to hedge my bets towards someone's understanding who has dedicated their professional life toward a subject than to someone who "likes science." If a person trained in a field says that someone's characterization of that field is a "word salad" and doesn't make sense, I'm going to pay attention.

CJSF

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Two years ago moved from my town
I was looking up past the city lights
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See the constellation ride across the sky
No cigar, no lady on his arm
Just a guy made of dots and lines

-from "See The Constellation"
by They Might Be Giants

I agree, flynjack1. But, that's not what I'm talking about in this particular instance.

Eric

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And that is your prerogative, Christopher. But it still remains a logical fallacy to do so.

Eric

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“Out yonder there was this huge world, which exists independently of us human beings and which stands before us like a great, eternal riddle, at least partially accessible to our inspection and thinking. The contemplation of this world beckoned like a liberation.” - Albert Einstein

My Astronomy Site
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Don't misunderstand what I'm saying here. Sure! It's reasonable to assume in most cases that someone with formal education and life experience in a particular field is certainly going to be far more knowledgeable than the average layman. But, I'm talking about this particular discussion, the points and arguments made and the evidence provided by each side in this discussion. All I'm saying is that both sides have provided compelling arguments and documented evidence. But, as I stated before, this is a highly controversial issue, even among professionals who have devoted their lives to studying this area of investigation. And one side of the discussion is not made more valid simply because of the credentials of one of the participants.

I have absolutely no doubt that tusenfem is very good at what he does and knows his stuff. But I also know that I could easily bring in 10 equally qualified plasma astrophysicists who would completely disagree with him and side with William.

The dynamics and processes that govern our sun are far more complex than anyone can fully understand. And, this is simply an issue that cannot be resolved even by the greatest minds in academia.

Eric

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“Out yonder there was this huge world, which exists independently of us human beings and which stands before us like a great, eternal riddle, at least partially accessible to our inspection and thinking. The contemplation of this world beckoned like a liberation.” - Albert Einstein

My Astronomy Site
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I guess I do misunderstand you (or am confused). I find (or found) both arguments compelling; however, when someone with demonstrable experience in the subject is finding fundamental flaws in the other party's understanding of the underlying phenomena, I weigh my opinions in favor of the expert.

CJSF

__________________
Two years ago moved from my town
I was looking up past the city lights
But the city lights got in my way

See the constellation ride across the sky
No cigar, no lady on his arm
Just a guy made of dots and lines

-from "See The Constellation"
by They Might Be Giants

I guess that's at the heart of the matter right there. At least with respect to this particular issue, there are no "experts". Of course that's my view on any issue regarding nature, but that is another issue for another time. LOL

Eric

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My Astronomy Site
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Let me make clear that I make no claims whatsoever about the solar cycle, that is anyone's guess how it is going to develop.
I am just commenting on what William is claiming about generals solar/plasma physics stuff like that we don't know where CMEs come from and other nonsense. William claims lots of stuff with quotes from various papers that more often than not are misinterpreted.

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Any comments in glorious red are to be considered in ModeratorMode.


善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

And that's my point. I can agree that we don't know what the heck's going to happen with respect to the solar cycle. It's William's apparent misunderstanding of the basic underlying phenomena that troubles me.

CJSF

__________________
Two years ago moved from my town
I was looking up past the city lights
But the city lights got in my way

See the constellation ride across the sky
No cigar, no lady on his arm
Just a guy made of dots and lines

-from "See The Constellation"
by They Might Be Giants

Please do not make comments in this thread that are not scientific. If you want to make a general comment please make it in the general comment section of the forum.

If someone else disagrees with me concerning a scientific statement please be more specific so I can respond.

There is observational evidence that shows the sun has different cyclic types of magnetic minimums. As I said, the sun is moved about its barycenter by the large planets. That motion affects the solar tachocline (interface of the solar radiative zone and solar convection zone) changing how the magnetic ropes that form the sunspots are produced.

This comment is consistant with both scientific research which I have copied above and is consistent with recent research.


Livingston and Penn have found that the magnetic field of each new individual sunspots is linearly declining at 77 gauss per year. As the sunspot rope requires a minimum magnetic field strength to survive its trip through the convection zone, it appears there will if the magnetic field decay continues, be a deep solar magnetic cycle interruption.

It is interesting (from a solar standpoint: cause) that there are significant cyclic geophysical events that seem to correlate with the restart of the solar magnetic cycle. I have found a series of new papers that illuminate the cause and effect, which I will present in a new thread in science.



Sunspots may vanish by 2015, W. Livingston & M. Penn

http://www.astroengine.com/?p=678

The graph below is from the paper and was copied from the above link that discusses the paper.

http://97.74.127.8/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/mag1.png


http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2..._longrange.htm

http://www.springerlink.com/content/w57236105034h657/





http://www.ann-geophys.net/20/115/20...0-115-2002.pdf

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003SPD....34.0603S

And that's my point! It's not William's misunderstanding of the basic underlying phenomena. It's only tusenfem contention that William has a misunderstanding of the basic underlying phenomena. Even Ph.D.s are human and can be quite opinionated and judgmental in their attitudes. I know because I have a Ph.D and in more than one discipline. But my Ph.D.s have no guarantee assigned to them for the layperson that tells them that I might actually be dead wrong on any given issue! You can ask Professor Bill Keel of UA (a.k.a. ngc3314) how many times I've been wrong in galaxy classifications, because he has seen me in action in the GalaxyZoo project and has corrected my errors many times. And, I'm considered an "expert" in galaxy morphology.

When you're dealing with cutting-edge science we are all laypeople. And any Ph.D. who tells you differently is either an arrogant fool or a liar! This is the human condition.

We tend to think that people who speak with authority and who do have the requisite education and knowledge, necessarily know what they are talking about. This is called academic dogmatism, and I'm not being sarcastic when I say this.

For so many centuries the average person believed that the sun revolved around the Earth even though Aristarchus of Samos (310-230 BC) first realized that we lived in heliocentric system, centuries before Copernicus. And why? Because Aristotle and then later Ptolemy said so! Well, it's no different now. Yes, the questions today may be more technical and filled with all kinds of differential equations which only the "experts" can understand. But that doesn't mean that you do not have the right and should I say, the duty to question the so-called experts.

One of my Ph.D.s is in Philosophy. And besides learning to think logically and analytically, I learned to never take anyone at their word. You do your best to sift through the evidence and the arguments, and even if you don't have the requisite knowledge to understand what is being argued, you at least learn something in the process by questioning, and come away a better person for it.

Trust me, not only do Ph.D.s make mistakes, but so do acknowledged geniuses, including Sir Isaac Newton, Einstein and Stephen Hawking himself.

Eric

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I'll be sure to keep that in mind next time I have a choice between a medical doctor and homeopathy, for example.

Could another mod weigh in here, please? Has this not crossed into ATM?

In any case, we can agree to disagree I guess.

CJSF

__________________
Two years ago moved from my town
I was looking up past the city lights
But the city lights got in my way

See the constellation ride across the sky
No cigar, no lady on his arm
Just a guy made of dots and lines

-from "See The Constellation"
by They Might Be Giants

Recently, my car started to overheat, so I pulled off the side of the road. My coolant level was basically zero. There are many reasons why this might happen. My mechanic, who is certified and has completed other repairs to my car, is of the opinion, after careful testing and observation, that my water pump is failing and causing coolant to leak out. It also explains why my belt started squealing a few days earlier, as coolant was being slung onto it as it started to fail.

My new neighbor came by, though. He told me there are any number or reasons why belts squeak and no two mechanics know exactly why a belt might start to squeak in all instances. I mentioned the failing water pump, and he said it was an easy fix. Since it's a water pump, just use 100% coolant with no water. That way the water pump won't need to be engaged anyway, since there is no water. I can just oil the belt, since everyone knows oil gets rid of squeaks.

No, who's opinion am I going to go with in this case?

That is a quick analogy to what I see this thread boiling down to.

CJSF

__________________
Two years ago moved from my town
I was looking up past the city lights
But the city lights got in my way

See the constellation ride across the sky
No cigar, no lady on his arm
Just a guy made of dots and lines

-from "See The Constellation"
by They Might Be Giants

Now you're comparing apples to oranges, and that's not fair! Nor is it even a valid argument. Again, you have committed another fallacy of logic. And when it comes to logic, I am an expert. But, that's only because logic, for the most part, is a priori and doesn't necessarily require any knowledge of the "real" world.

Of course I would want an M.D. when it comes to the well-being of my body. But, that's not what we're talking about here. Is it?

P.S.

I think this discussion is over. No moderation needed here. Have a nice day, Christopher.

Eric

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Just in general here, I don't think William understands, or even professes to understand, what is happening. He seems to basically be quoting or paraphrasing what other, more knowledgable people are saying. So like EricFD stated, I don't think the credentials are that important. Tusenfem is rightly taking him to task for making wrong statements, but Tusenfem himself doesn't claim to have a full understanding of what is happening. So I really don't see that much of a problem. I think we are all interested in what's going on.

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As above, so below

Very eloquently put, Jens.

Eric

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so the cycle's coming further than expected?

people are already using the cycle on youtube to premote evil things that will happen, but if the cycle is pushed back then thier out of luck.

I just hope when the next solar storm does happen it doesn't do what people say it will do and knock out communications across the world...

There is geophysical data that supports the occurrence of very large, cyclic CMEs. The anomalous very large CME and powerful flares occur when the solar magnetic cyclic is recovering from a deep minimum.

There is a very large set of geophysical observations that are cyclical, that occur contemporary and that do not have an explanation. The geological analyze has improved the dating to confirm the events are contemporary. As is the nature of breakthroughs, there is a sudden release of papers.

I will start a separate thread in science to present and discuss the recent geophysical observations (papers).

Journey from the Center of the Sun, Jack Zirker (great book, I would highly recommend it.) page 203

Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection



http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...ngtonflare.htm

Thursday, September 1, 1859 Carrington Solar Event

I think, William you'll find the evidence that you're looking for in the rings of very ancient trees--trees that live many thousands of years on average.

Eric

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But the tricky thing is that I don't think anybody really understands how long a deep minimum lasts. The Maunder Minimum lasted for almost a century, but the Dalton Minimum just 40 years.

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I would be interested to know how the latest sunspots measure on Penn and Livingstons chart realizing of course that it takes many points to determine a trend.

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Alexander Pope, 1709

I'm going to reiterate what I said earlier and then I'm not going to say anything more on this matter.

The dynamics and processes that govern our sun are far more complex than any human being can fully understand. And, this is simply an issue that cannot be resolved even by the greatest minds in academia.

You can argue all you want. But in the end, the sun is going to do what it's going to do. In the worst case scenario maybe some of us and our families will survive and some of us won't. I could name at least a half a dozen more immediate geological threats to your existence than that that are in the sky overhead! And yet you sit here fighting over something over which you have no control, while at the same time there are more immediate geological threats that could end your world and your life tomorrow! And you stubbornly remain oblivious to these threats to your existence!

So! Let's cut to the chase...shall we? The real underlying question to this entire, ostensibly sophisticated conversation is.....are you afraid or not?

That's all she wrote. End of story!

Eric

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Their argument is that sunspots may disappear by 2015, so the presence or absence of sunspots now isn't really an issue. But the fact that there haven't been very many sunspots yet does seem in line with their argument.

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The argument is if the sunspots do not reappear in the 24th cycle of the sun's 11-year-cycle will it cause another Ice Age! Now there are many variables to consider. One of which is accordance with Langrange-Laplace (LL) secular theory in an n-body problem where n > 2. The eccentricity of Earth's orbit varies over time. But that's not what is at issue here. The issue here is what the heck is our sun doing. And this is the first time in human history that we have been able to analyze this phenomenon in a relatively meaningful way.

One of my greatest heroes of all time is George Ellery Hale. He was the first to make a direct correlation between sunspots and the Zeeman effect, thus proving that the sun has an electromagnetic field by means of spectroscopy. And bravo to him for doing so and so much more! But that's not all there is to the sun. There are acoustic phenomena with respect to our sun which run in opposite directions with respect to one another. We have the technology to detect these events but not the wisdom to understand the ultimate impact that these acoustic events have on the recently expected 24th cycle of our sun. When push comes to shove we don't know Sh+& about our own star.

Eric

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“Out yonder there was this huge world, which exists independently of us human beings and which stands before us like a great, eternal riddle, at least partially accessible to our inspection and thinking. The contemplation of this world beckoned like a liberation.” - Albert Einstein

My Astronomy Site
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