I think it's really best if we ignore the stuff about climate, and try to discuss what is happening with the sun. There are already threads on climate change. Otherwise it could get political, and we all know what the means.

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As above, so below

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Any comments in glorious red are to be considered in ModeratorMode.


善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

So again, after a stretch without sunspots of 51 days, a tiny sunspot appeared but vanished fairly quickly. And I noticed the density of the solar wind is 0.3 protons per cubic cm. That's very thin, right? At this point the situation seems fairly close to 1912-1913, so it will be interesting to see what happens next.

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As above, so below

Are Sunspots Disappearing?

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...p_sunspots.htm

From your link:

My Bold

What other "indications"?

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(By the way, I hate it that so many papers in the areas of planetary science and geology are not easily available to the dreaded "non-subscribers". It is like they are screaming at me: "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH". Good, I feel better now.)

"Quaerendo inventis"

dogs and cats

I dont know lol.... and I think solar scientists have been saying that for about 2 years. One thing's for sure, we really can't predict the solar cycle.

I think this is probably what they are talking about. Not that I can understand it, but at least I can link it!

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As above, so below

Let's see, the report was released 6/17/09 and it has been 51/52 days of no/low sunspots.

Naw, can't be, press releases couldn't stop sunspots.

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(By the way, I hate it that so many papers in the areas of planetary science and geology are not easily available to the dreaded "non-subscribers". It is like they are screaming at me: "YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH". Good, I feel better now.)

"Quaerendo inventis"

dogs and cats

Hi, just joined the forum and thought this thread would be a good place to start as I find it a very interesting discussion.

The sun still has many secrets to reveal and I'm interested in finding out how the sun works, it's effects on our solar system and how these learning can help us to understand how other star systems operate.

The possible impact that our current 'quiet mode' sun could have is starting to worry me more and more with each day that goes by. Here's hoping it gets back to it's stride again soon...

Hi Tenuc. Don't worry about the sun, it'll be allright. It's useless anyway. It only comes out during the day. But the moon comes out at night and gives us light to see by.

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I'm not a scientist, but I play one on the internet.
http://www.rrac.org

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...tm?list1340890

http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf

What is interesting is not only that the sun is currently spotless, but that the sun has moved from the highest magnetic cycle levels and the shortest solar cycles in 10,000 years, to abruptly no sunspots.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...labels.svg.png




There is evidence from observations of other stars that the star is unstable during the restart of the magnetic cycle. (i.e. The massive 3000 gauss sunspots that move from the solar tachocline (the tachocline is the name for the narrow region that separates the solar radiative zone from the solar convection zone.) http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/tachocline ) to the solar surface, must help equalize the solar radiative zone or the solar core.




http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._parts_big.jpg



Higher levels of C14 are produced in the atmosphere by higher levels of Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) when the solar magnetic cycle is weak.

GCR are mostly high speed protons which are deflected by magnetic knots in the solar heliosphere. The solar heliosphere is a plasma that is created by the solar wind. The solar wind consists of ionized hydrogen and helium that moves from the sun radially, at speeds which in the 20th century ranged from a low of 400 km/hr to 800 km/hr. Pieces of the solar magnetic field are stripped off the sun and carried out in to the heliosphere.

When the solar magnetic cycle is interrupted, the solar wind continues to strip the solar magnetic field until the solar large scale magnetic field reaches some minimum.

Who would have thought solar minimum would turn out to be so interesting.

2009 now has 200 spotless days, which makes it the fifth scarcest year in the last century. And one of the ones above (number 3) is 2008, so unless something happens quickly, we'll probably end up having 1912 and 1913 as one record and then 2008 and 2009 as the next.

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As above, so below

Howdy.

Goggle translate, from for example Italian to English.

http://translate.google.com/translate_t#

An Italian web site, that is recording the solar spotless record.

http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/d...le-in-diretta/

-DATA IN SUN DIRECT
DAYS SPOTLESS NOAA: UPDATED to 12/9/2009
DAYS SPOTLESS YTD (2009): 206
DAYS FROM START SPOTLESS MINIMUM: 719
DAYS OF SPOTLESS ROW: 11
DAYS REMAINING IN ACHIEVING THE CYCLE 13: -17 (expected 29/9/2009)

-SPOTLESS SIDC DAYS: Last updated 12/9/2009 (data subject to monthly revisions)
DAYS SPOTLESS YTD (2009): 207
DAYS FROM START SPOTLESS MINIMUM: 716
DAYS OF SPOTLESS ROW: 11
DAYS REMAINING IN ACHIEVING THE CYCLE 13: -20
MEDIA FLOW SOLAR ADJUST September 2009 (to 12 / 9): 69.91

-ARCHIVE solar flux ADJUST:
June 2008: 67.99
July 2008: 67.87
August 2008: 67.90
September 2008: 67.83
October 2008: 67.96
November 2008: 67.13
December 2008: 67.23
January 2009: 67.74
February 2009: 68.28
March 2009: 68.61
April 2009: 70.36
May 2009: 72.16
June 2009: 70.66
July 2009: 70.48
August 2009: 69.06

-ARCHIVE SIDC Sunspot Number: (*= DATA YET PRELININARI)
June 2008: 3.4
July 2008 0.8
August 2008: 0.5
September 2008: 1.1
October 2008: 2.9
November 2008: 4.1
December 2008: 0.8
January 2009: 1.3
February 2009: 1.4
March 2009: 0.7
April 2009: 1.2 (*)
May 2009: 2.9 (*)
June 2009: 2.6 (*)
July 2009: 3.5 (*)
August 2009: 0.0 (*)

-CALCULATION OF THE MONTH MINIMUM CYCLE 23/24 with the average SMOOTED: (DATA SIDC)
June 2008: 3.25
July 2008: 2.78
August 2008: 2.67
September 2008: 2.28
October 2008: 1.85
November 2008: 1.77
December 2008: 1.73[*] Now it is the CANDIDATE OF THE MONTH MINIMUM
January 2009: 1.8
February 2009: 1.9
March 2009:
April 2009:
May 2009:
June 2009:
July 2009:
August 2009:

-PARTIAL SOLAR MINIMUM LENGTH IN MONTHS AND YEARS: 59 years mesi/4.91

-PARTIAL CYCLE LENGTH IN 23 MONTHS AND YEARS: 151 mesi/12.58 years

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/200...JA014342.shtml

For those people who are interested in what causes and affects the solar wind this interesting.

The solar wind bursts have continued even though the sun is in the deep solar magnetic minimum in 100 years.

The solar wind bursts have now started to abate. Some questions

1) How long will this magnetic minimum continue?
2) What will the solar magnetic large scale field drop to?
3) How will the solar magnetic cycle restart?
4) Will there be large coronal mass ejections or solar flares on restart?
5) How does what is observed affect the solar models?

If the Sun is so quiet, why is the Earth ringing? A comparison of two solar minimum intervals.

We have Sun Spots - Cycle 24 starting to get active finally?

Two groups of sunspots even...

SpaceWeather

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Gone Sailing

Hello Atraveller,

The sunspots appear based on observational evidence to continue to weaken. As noted in this thread the magnetic field strength of new sunspots is successive dropping. A rump cycle preceded the Maunder Minimum. Solar cycle 24's predicted start and maximum has been changed 5 times. I am not sure what is the scientific basis for the changes.

We probably will have to wait and see to determine what will happen. The why will depend on what happens.

http://www.solen.info/solar/


http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/...e/mdi_igr/512/

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/...e/mdi_mag/512/

Of note as well, last November there was a burst of solar activity and then a return to the quiet. If you look at the solar flux numbers there is a slight increase for 2009 over 2008, additionally we just set a new cycle 24 flux record with a whopping 76! Solar wind however is still at very low velocities overall. My guess is we are not out of the woods yet as far as a return to previously "normal" curves of activity. If indeed the sunspots become invisible in 2015 as speculated by Penn and Livingston's observations, then what is the restart mechanism to return to the normal cycle activity?

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"A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again."

Alexander Pope, 1709

Calm before the storm perhaps?

I'm thinking we'll be getting some massive events like giant CME's and flares when it does start up eventually. We are all very lucky living in these interesting times.

There appears to be a significant and rapid solar change underway.

http://www.leif.org/research/IDV09.pdf

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/0...eview-process/

Wow it sounds like someone has a chip on his shoulder:

I have not read the paper yet, but if the author already claims to get "nasty comment" than that makes you think whether the author himself is sure about the technique he has used.

__________________

Any comments in glorious red are to be considered in ModeratorMode.


善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

Leif Svalgaard is scientifically conservative. You would likely enjoy speaking with him.

I will follow-up and advise, as to what is controversial about a paper that notes cycle 24 is an obvious abrupt interruption to the solar magnetic cycle. I would suspect there must be some logical reason why this extraordinary solar event is not being reported.

http://www.leif.org/research/Leif%20...nd%20Talks.pdf


http://www.leif.org/research/

I hate to ask for information already presented, for it wastes other's time. In one sentence, please, would someone explain the physical processes that link low/no electro-magnetic storms on the Sun to colder weather on the Earth?

The Maunder Minimum is easily linked to a cooler period on Earth. I have seen the explaination, perhaps from William, but I don't recall the details.

So, in one run on sentence, could someone following this physical relationship between the Sun and Earth explain what is happening to cause what I expect to be an abnormally cold and wet winter on our Continent?

Remember, I am not a scientist, unless observation of the obvious, while sitting in a rocking chair, counts.

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Squeeze three kids outta your birthcanal and then you can tell me how tough your are, Ranger. -My wife

In the future, man will talk to man through webs like the spider. This will be a sign of the coming end of the long cycle. - Ancient American prophecy

Essentially total solar irradiance TSI decreases during solar minimum....by a very small value of about .01-.02 percent. This, over a period of time, has an impact on weather systems. Next there are influences of decreased solar magnetic activity which impact cosmic ray exposer to earths atmosphere. Though the exact extent of cosmic ray influences are unknown it also has an impact. As we have never witnessed these events since the begining of the space age, the next few years should provide an excellent time to learn more about the earth-sun system.

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"A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again."

Alexander Pope, 1709

You have got to be kidding!
A quick search ADS shows this list of papers and talks, with "solar cycle 24" in the title. Not being reported indeed!

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Any comments in glorious red are to be considered in ModeratorMode.


善數, 不用籌策 (shàn shù, bù yòng chóu cè)
He who is good at counting, uses no counting tools
“A good scientist has freed himself of concepts and keeps his mind open to what is”
道德經, 二十七 (dào dé jīng, 27)

Thanks flynjack1. Well done.

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Squeeze three kids outta your birthcanal and then you can tell me how tough your are, Ranger. -My wife

In the future, man will talk to man through webs like the spider. This will be a sign of the coming end of the long cycle. - Ancient American prophecy

A single sentence cannot explain how the sun is hypothesized to affect earth's temperature. Jasper Kirkby's paper published in geophysics reviews is a good overview of that topic.

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/...804.1938v1.pdf

We likely need some more time to understand what happens when the solar magnetic cycle is interrupted. If there are some observable changes I will start a new thread in the science section and in this thread as there will be something to discuss at both source and earth.

There appears to be evidence in the paleorecord of a number of immense CME when the solar magnetic cycle restarts. The restart will occur a number of years after the interruption. To me this looks like an obvious magnetic cycle interruption rather than a cycle slow down.

The magnetic field strength of individual sunspots are linearly decreasing in strength. The sunspots are hypothesized to be created at the interface of the radiative and convection zone (the tachocline). The sunspot rope builds in strength in the tachocline and then floats up through the convection zone to the surface of the sun. To survive the trip convection zone the sunspot requires a field strength of around 1500 gauss.

What do you think? Slow down or interruption?

The seeds for the next solar cycle are hypothesized to come from the second to last solar cycle. (i.e. 22 years ago). If there are no sunspots for a long enough period the sun must have a different mechanism to restart.


http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009EO300001.pdf

William, I hope you understand I did not mean to minimize the importance of the solar influence on climate. I was attempting to answer as succinctly as possible within my own limited understanding.

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"A little learning is a dangerous thing; drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring: there shallow draughts intoxicate the brain, and drinking largely sobers us again."

Alexander Pope, 1709