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Old 10-January-2008, 06:07 PM
Wakatah Wakatah is offline
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Question Undiscovered Asteroids?

My question is does the unknown asteroids succeed the list of known asteroids?

Maybe thats impossible to answer, do we have the technology to stop an impact?

Ive read numerous articles where there have been a couple asteroids flying
right past us and we didn't even notice it, i also hear that chance of a impact is more likely than getting killed in a airplane crash.

If thats the case, is luck on our side?
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Old 10-January-2008, 06:24 PM
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You are asking these questions in a rather broad way, so that the answers are ambiguous. Let me give you some specific answers that might help.

We mostly only need to concern ourselves with asteroids that come very near Earth's orbit, and of these we mostly are not threatened by any asteroid smaller than perhaps 50-100 meters in diameter.

Our first search efforts were looking for Earth-crossing asteroids about a kilometer in diameter or larger, and we are pretty certain that we've found the majority of these (but a significant number remain unfound.

We are now looking at trying to find all or most of the smaller asteroids, which we will probably accomplish by the year 2025.

Most of the rocks that have whizzed by undetected until the last minute lately are even smaller than the threshold we hope to detect by the 2020's.

In terms of the technology to stop an impact, we can probably prevent an impact of a small asteroid if we have a few decades of warning. Our ability will improve in the decades and centuries ahead.
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Old 10-January-2008, 06:25 PM
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We have found most of the larger asteroids. But only 1% of the asteroids with dimentions between 1 meter and 100 meters. These smaller ones usually burn up before they reach Earth's surface, so they are very rarely dangerous.
There are some bodies, sort of like asteroids we are finding farther away than Neptune's orbit, which could total Earth, but mostly they stay beyond Neptune's orbit. Neil
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Old 10-January-2008, 07:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wakatah View Post
If thats the case, is luck on our side?
Science is on our side.

NASA JPL Near-Earth Object (NEO) program

You can see from the discovery stats that the discovery rate of dangerous over-1000-meter objects is tapering off. We know of almost all of them that are coming close.

Approaching the end of targets, the program managers are proposing a second-generation search of all objects greater than 140 meters (90% by 2020). Report to Congress
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Old 10-January-2008, 08:15 PM
spaceboy0 spaceboy0 is offline
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can an asteroid come from the direction of the Sun and be undetected until very late?
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Old 10-January-2008, 09:02 PM
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Quote:
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(snip)
Our first search efforts were looking for Earth-crossing asteroids about a kilometer in diameter or larger, and we are pretty certain that we've found the majority of these (but a significant number remain unfound.
Why are you certain that you have found the majority of >1 km-Earth-crossing asteroids? This would mean that the total number of Earth-crossing asteroids >1 km is known. Is it? Because they originate from the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter? Are there no asteroids from other "places", with highly elliptical Earth-crossing trajectories?
An other question which comes into one´s mind is whether we would prefer a solid-soil- or an ocean-hit of a >1 km asteroid
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Old 10-January-2008, 09:03 PM
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Quote:
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can an asteroid come from the direction of the Sun and be undetected until very late?
Becoming progressively less likely, but possible.

FAQs about NEO Impacts

Quote:
Is there a problem with blind spots in the Spaceguard Survey?

Some press reports express concern that an asteroid could hit the Earth coming out of a "blind spot", such as the daylight sky or high southern latitudes where no Spaceguard telescopes are looking. Some worry that if an asteroid is found after its closest approach to Earth, this is an indication that the system is not working. These concerns seem to be based on the misconception that we are trying to detect asteroids as they approach the Earth on their final plunge toward impact. In fact, any such last-minute warning system is impractical as well as unproductive. In this survey, it makes no difference if a NEA is discovered on approach or departure from the vicinity of the Earth. The important thing is that it is discovered and its orbit determined. The only effect of blind spots, whether they be due to sunlight or moonlight or bad weather or lack of a southern hemisphere survey telescope, is to slow down the completion of the NEA catalog. Objects in blind spots will be picked up later, usually within a few years, in a more favorable geometry.
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Old 10-January-2008, 09:21 PM
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Why are you certain that you have found the majority of >1 km-Earth-crossing asteroids? This would mean that the total number of Earth-crossing asteroids >1 km is known. Is it?
On this I am parroting asteroid scientists. The conclusion is based on the rate at which new ones are being found. This allows us to make good estimates as to the total number.

This search does NOT include long period comets. In my opinion, if we are discussing threats to Earth's inhabitants, asteroids will be handleable in the near future, but long term comets will be more difficult.
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Old 10-January-2008, 09:42 PM
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On this I am parroting asteroid scientists. The conclusion is based on the rate at which new ones are being found. This allows us to make good estimates as to the total number.
Yes, as long as there isn´t a periodic pattern which haven´t recognized yet. We might be in an "observation valley" (not very probable, I think, but who knows)

Quote:
This search does NOT include long period comets. In my opinion, if we are discussing threats to Earth's inhabitants, asteroids will be handleable in the near future
Agreed, if "near future" is >100 years

Quote:
but long term comets will be more difficult.
Absolutely!
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Old 10-January-2008, 09:47 PM
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Agreed, if "near future" is >100 years
The number of years depends on the size of the asteroid. I think if we spotted a 100 meter asteroid that was going to hit Earth 30 years from now, we could get it together to nudge it enough. A 1 km asteroid hitting in 30 years would be much more difficult, but like you say, more than 100 years from now, it would be a challenge we'd probably succeed at.
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Old 10-January-2008, 10:01 PM
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The number of years depends on the size of the asteroid. I think if we spotted a 100 meter asteroid that was going to hit Earth 30 years from now, we could get it together to nudge it enough. A 1 km asteroid hitting in 30 years would be much more difficult, but like you say, more than 100 years from now, it would be a challenge we'd probably succeed at.
more than 100 years from now, it would be a challenge we'd probably succeed at

Probably, and hopefully, if we succeed to merge world wide scientific vigour even more efficiently than today
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Old 10-January-2008, 11:51 PM
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The 1% coming out of the Sun, typically did not come out of the sun on the previous pass so we know when and where even if we can't see them on this pass.
The equivelent of Hubble in solar orbit would give us a different angle all but completely illiminating this blind spot. A solar orbit telescope would also help us find the million asteroids about 1 meter in size, most of which we have not yet charted. It is thought that most of the main asteriod belt asteroids have not come within 100 million kilometers of Earth in the last billion years, but a few of them become Earth orbit crossing asteroids each decade. At present there are about 2000 dangerous size asteroids, that cross Earth's orbit or almost cross Earth's orbit. These are the ones of major concern. Neil
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