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My question is does the unknown asteroids succeed the list of known asteroids?
Maybe thats impossible to answer, do we have the technology to stop an impact? Ive read numerous articles where there have been a couple asteroids flying right past us and we didn't even notice it, i also hear that chance of a impact is more likely than getting killed in a airplane crash. If thats the case, is luck on our side? |
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We have found most of the larger asteroids. But only 1% of the asteroids with dimentions between 1 meter and 100 meters. These smaller ones usually burn up before they reach Earth's surface, so they are very rarely dangerous.
There are some bodies, sort of like asteroids we are finding farther away than Neptune's orbit, which could total Earth, but mostly they stay beyond Neptune's orbit. Neil |
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Science is on our side.
NASA JPL Near-Earth Object (NEO) program You can see from the discovery stats that the discovery rate of dangerous over-1000-meter objects is tapering off. We know of almost all of them that are coming close. Approaching the end of targets, the program managers are proposing a second-generation search of all objects greater than 140 meters (90% by 2020). Report to Congress
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An other question which comes into one´s mind is whether we would prefer a solid-soil- or an ocean-hit of a >1 km asteroid
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If everyone had even a basic grasp of scientific principles, this planet would be a better place (Phil Plait) Die Lücke, die wir hinterlassen, ersetzt uns vollkommen (Carl Heinz Schroth) |
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FAQs about NEO Impacts Quote:
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This search does NOT include long period comets. In my opinion, if we are discussing threats to Earth's inhabitants, asteroids will be handleable in the near future, but long term comets will be more difficult.
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If everyone had even a basic grasp of scientific principles, this planet would be a better place (Phil Plait) Die Lücke, die wir hinterlassen, ersetzt uns vollkommen (Carl Heinz Schroth) |
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The number of years depends on the size of the asteroid. I think if we spotted a 100 meter asteroid that was going to hit Earth 30 years from now, we could get it together to nudge it enough. A 1 km asteroid hitting in 30 years would be much more difficult, but like you say, more than 100 years from now, it would be a challenge we'd probably succeed at.
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Forming opinions as we speak |
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Probably, and hopefully, if we succeed to merge world wide scientific vigour even more efficiently than today
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If everyone had even a basic grasp of scientific principles, this planet would be a better place (Phil Plait) Die Lücke, die wir hinterlassen, ersetzt uns vollkommen (Carl Heinz Schroth) |
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The 1% coming out of the Sun, typically did not come out of the sun on the previous pass so we know when and where even if we can't see them on this pass.
The equivelent of Hubble in solar orbit would give us a different angle all but completely illiminating this blind spot. A solar orbit telescope would also help us find the million asteroids about 1 meter in size, most of which we have not yet charted. It is thought that most of the main asteriod belt asteroids have not come within 100 million kilometers of Earth in the last billion years, but a few of them become Earth orbit crossing asteroids each decade. At present there are about 2000 dangerous size asteroids, that cross Earth's orbit or almost cross Earth's orbit. These are the ones of major concern. Neil |
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