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  #361 (permalink)  
Old 14-April-2008, 12:23 AM
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Yeah but!
They're more regional. With the advances in technology, the chance of an all out world war decrease because (almost) everybody realizes that the next big one will be the last one for a long, long time!
Actually, it's advances in technology that make world wars possible. Rapid transportation and communication are needed for war to be plausible on a global scale. And "everybody realizes" is guesswork at best; humans (and presumably civilized aliens) rarely act on pure reason or long-term global interest.
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  #362 (permalink)  
Old 14-April-2008, 10:08 PM
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let's hope you are wrong.
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Old 14-April-2008, 10:14 PM
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The 'shouting' I refer to is those that are directed deliberately, with as high a power as possible, to a carefully(?) selected stellar system that 'may' harbour ET.
Is this behavior actually going on?
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  #364 (permalink)  
Old 15-April-2008, 05:07 PM
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let's hope you are wrong.
Based on existing evidence, unfortunately, I'm not. Since that's exactly what's been happening for most of the 20th and early 21st century. But the mantra that a nuclear war equals Total Species Death is also unproven, since we have (fortunately!) never seen one outside of simulations and fiction. There would undoubtedly be some survivors, and they would retain or rediscover knowledge to rebuild civilization, since such recorded knowledge is increasingly widespread around the world. So even if we "blew ourselves back to the stone age", we wouldn't stay in the stone age for long.
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Old 15-April-2008, 05:16 PM
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you're kidding right?


first off infrastructure would be hard to find. Second the few survivors would probably be military people with the abilities to barricade and wait out the worst, and then rural people.

I imagine most people would know how to operate a car and even some how to fill the tank with power out at the pumps. Civilization? very doubtful. Do you think you could repair a road? run a hospital? build an engine? even machine a part?

My thoughts are that the people who survived would live long enough on what wasn't destroyed that they could form some groups hopefully of which there would be a few capable people. But that is very optimistic. As far as all this "knowledge" you're talking about, where is it? and how can we find it now? Rural libraries might be able to store some information. Check there first. How to build a cabinet, clean a carburetor. That would be helpful.
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  #366 (permalink)  
Old 15-April-2008, 05:26 PM
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you're kidding right?


first off infrastructure would be hard to find. Second the few survivors would probably be military people with the abilities to barricade and wait out the worst, and then rural people.

I imagine most people would know how to operate a car and even some how to fill the tank with power out at the pumps. Civilization? very doubtful. Do you think you could repair a road? run a hospital? build an engine? even machine a part?

My thoughts are that the people who survived would live long enough on what wasn't destroyed that they could form some groups hopefully of which there would be a few capable people. But that is very optimistic. As far as all this "knowledge" you're talking about, where is it? and how can we find it now? Rural libraries might be able to store some information. Check there first. How to build a cabinet, clean a carburetor. That would be helpful.
You're thinking way too short-term here. I never said they'd do it in one generation! I just said that eventually, another civilization would rise.

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As far as all this "knowledge" you're talking about, where is it? and how can we find it now?
Everywhere that doesn't get burned, which is most places. Cities are not targets of priority for most nuclear-armed nations.

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How to build a cabinet, clean a carburetor. That would be helpful.
Yes, it would, if you had to build a cabinet or clean a carburator.
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  #367 (permalink)  
Old 16-April-2008, 01:09 AM
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A few simple things like guns and mettalurgy would ensure that at worst people could be blown back to the 18th century. Everyone who regresses further than that would be mopped up by the people who remember how to make the guns.

As far as targets go - wasting your nukes on all the non-participant countries would be pretty stupid and pointless. I'd say there are good odds of non-participant countries making it through a nuclear engagement unscathed for the most part (except for a few months of climactic difficulty).

But you have a point - most of this knowledge is tacit. Everyone knows how to do a specific thing, no one really knows how to do everything (at a modern level of sophistication - in 18th century terms you might find a few "rennaisance men" who actually do know how to do a bit of everything).

Just because your cities are destroyed doesn't mean that there is no one to rely on for trade and mutual exchange between the survivors (which would include the vast majority of land area in a large country like the US or Russia, even with a few thousand h-bombs either way)
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Old 16-April-2008, 03:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Kaptain K View Post
Yeah but!
They're more regional. With the advances in technology, the chance of an all out world war decrease because (almost) everybody realizes that the next big one will be the last one for a long, long time!
Just wait... I'll bet 20 years won't go by before we have a huge one on our hands. My money is on problems starting in Asia, carrying over into the middle east (that's where the oil is), and of course the U.S. won't be able to resist jumping into the fray.

The U.S. defense is spending unbelievable amounts of money on robotics research. We aren't developing robotic technology because we can... we're doing it because someone thinks we're going to need it.
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  #369 (permalink)  
Old 16-April-2008, 04:08 AM
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Wink use at own risk

I've got an idea! Let's make all weapons out of 'hot' radioactive materials. Then if you want to play war, use at your own risk. Peace is assured....

Then we can talk.
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  #370 (permalink)  
Old 16-April-2008, 01:58 PM
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Default Technological resilience

The challenges for the first few generations after a nuclear holocaust would certainly be huge,
but it's easy to underestimate the resilience of knowledge.

I know lots of people who can do handicraft at least at a pre-industrial-age level, all on their own and without any modern tools.
And it's much easier to build on that, once you already know what's feasible (and roughly how).

You can skip all that pointless trial and error necessary the first time around, say:
- trying to make gold from other metals
- treating infectious diseases with blood-letting
- looking for continents or travel routes that don't exist
- dying in stupid flight attempts
- etc. etc. etc.

Also, most survivors would be able to read and write,
and thus to preserve at least part of their specialized knowledge for future generations.
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  #371 (permalink)  
Old 16-April-2008, 04:40 PM
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Originally Posted by clint View Post
The challenges for the first few generations after a nuclear holocaust would certainly be huge,
but it's easy to underestimate the resilience of knowledge.

I know lots of people who can do handicraft at least at a pre-industrial-age level, all on their own and without any modern tools.
And it's much easier to build on that, once you already know what's feasible (and roughly how).

You can skip all that pointless trial and error necessary the first time around, say:
- trying to make gold from other metals
- treating infectious diseases with blood-letting
- looking for continents or travel routes that don't exist
- dying in stupid flight attempts
- etc. etc. etc.

Also, most survivors would be able to read and write,
and thus to preserve at least part of their specialized knowledge for future generations.

that's an advantage for sure, but I'm expect that you are overestimating the general knowledge of our population. Ever have an adult man ask you why the moon is up in the day time?
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  #372 (permalink)  
Old 19-April-2008, 08:11 AM
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Originally Posted by FriedPhoton View Post
Just wait... I'll bet 20 years won't go by before we have a huge one on our hands. My money is on problems starting in Asia, carrying over into the middle east (that's where the oil is), and of course the U.S. won't be able to resist jumping into the fray.

The U.S. defense is spending unbelievable amounts of money on robotics research. We aren't developing robotic technology because we can... we're doing it because someone thinks we're going to need it.
You're showing your (lack of) age! I'm old enough to remember fallout shelters and "duck and cover" drills!
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  #373 (permalink)  
Old 20-April-2008, 12:14 AM
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Is this behavior actually going on?
Yes, it is... start looking here....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_SETI
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  #374 (permalink)  
Old 20-April-2008, 12:27 AM
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Yes, it is... start looking here....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_SETI
Interesting. I didn't know that. But are these *astronomers* that are sending the messages?
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  #375 (permalink)  
Old 20-April-2008, 10:51 AM
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.... But are these *astronomers* that are sending the messages?
I think at least some of them are... dunno what percentage though. Does it matter?
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  #376 (permalink)  
Old 20-April-2008, 02:10 PM
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I think at least some of them are... dunno what percentage though. Does it matter?
Well, as an astronomer myself and considering the number of astronomers that I know and the fact that I don't know of a single one who is partaking in this activity and didn't even know that it was going on at all, it seems a bit unfair for the original poster to accuse "astronomers" of doing something dangerous by "shouting out" to the universe.
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Old 20-April-2008, 04:12 PM
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Not to mention that it would be a pretty impressive facility that even could "shout out" to the universe in any sufficiently capable manner.
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  #378 (permalink)  
Old 23-April-2008, 11:29 PM
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Well, as an astronomer myself .... I don't know of a single one... it seems a bit unfair for the original poster to accuse "astronomers" of doing something dangerous by "shouting out" to the universe.
Um... sure... I had no intention of insulting or accusing all astronomers... I love what you do... keep going it is great stuff...

But there definitely are some who are doing this using planetary radars, radio telescopes, (even aricebo on occasion). Again I say that even though the risk is small, they don't have the right to speak for all of us... and they definitely cant present a case that says it must be done right this minute.

A sensible course would be to wait and see what we find out passively before going 'active'. It is an exciting time in astronomy and we might learn a lot in the next decade or so.

It still strikes me as hubris. Exactly the kind of thing that Murphy's law will apply to....
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