Ok... fair enough point. I got a slightly different view from reading that article but I will not debate that... I will accept your understanding of it.

You should note that it was not I who mentioned that principle. My reasoning is not based on an in depth knowledge of game theory or diplomacy or the Precautionary Principle. I have had a passing interest in these things over the years and have a smattering of knowledge in those areas... (probably just enough to be dangerous )

So whether proponents of that principle propose its use in this case or not I don't know... Instead I would fall back on common sense... (not so common...)

If you don't know if a thing is dangerous or not... and it has the _possibility_ of being so... its dangerous to assume it isn't.

Have I stopped beating my wife??.... Don't like what they say?... call them a troll.

I am tempted to fold and _hope_ I have done some good... but given my native stubbornness perhaps not....
Ok fella, what comment or post have I made that wasn't reasonable or logically argued? Didn't enjoy realising that your previous post was not all that well thought out?

[edit: Just so no one gets the impression this happens to me often... I have never been accused of being a troll before... but then again I don't normally respond to stupid posts... just ignore them normally. This time since I cant see similar proponents, I have taken on the task, for the moment, of speaking out when I haven't seen much similar opinion elsewhere.]

We don't have much to go on concerning the prevalence of intelligent life in our galaxy; but the fact that this does not seem to have happened at any time during the last half-a-billion years seems to suggest that there have been few, or no, species with interstellar capabilities near the Solar System during that period.

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Ok, so after combining all the suggestions and entering a little of mine, the message I plan to send out to the entire universe is this:


"Please come to our planet. It is the little blue one with lots of water. On it you will find people afraid of you. We need to have you get rid of them. TYVM"



Space aliens, whenever they get this, will be so upset that someone doesn't like them (they have feelings too) they'll come avenge the fear mongers and leave the rest of us alone. We'll probably stop for tea sometime around late afternoon and dine on mashed potatoes with cheddar cheese and garlic mixed in.

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-Cross
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Those that lack education have a hard time understanding its value. - Cross

You didn't mention anything about beer, barbecue or Willie Nelson playing at the reception.

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. . . or any species with interstellar capability refrained from doing so. Either way, radio signals aren't likely to make much difference: If they don't exist, it doesn't matter, and if they do, they've had plenty of time already.

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Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

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that will be in the second message. I'm a little worried however about Willie. Since it will probably be another 75 million years before the Space Aliens can get here, Willie may not be around to play. Beer should still be in existence, but bbq will probably go the way of the parachute pants and the AMC Gremlin, just a fad.

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"I will do my best to understand and explain the universe from big to small without invoking miracles, unrepeatable events, or divine intervention. In place of those things I will use observations, mathematics, and science."


-Cross
My travel blog

Some of my Astrophotography


Those that lack education have a hard time understanding its value. - Cross

All I have to say is that if they are out there, and they detect us, and they are hostile, we're screwed.

Imagine you were sitting on their planet listening to all our noise. Think of the intelligence we're freely blasting out without reservation whatsoever. Since you are hostile and want to eliminate humans how would you go about doing it? I've read many suggestions that they'd take ages to get here or the expense wouldn't be worth it or whatever... I didn't read all the posts... but if it were me, I would attack Earth at the speed of light and it would be over with for humans before they knew what was going on.

On my planet I would invest every available resource in the war against the human infection. I would mobilize my planet to study all human intelligence, learn human technology, and develop an AI which I could broadcast back at Earth, get it into the Internet, and have it hide while learning more about humans and broadcasting even more valuable information back to the home planet.

Eventually this AI could be enhanced, and it could create "accidents", foment wars, or better yet, just launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack and let humans wipe themselves out. If the keys to the missile silos aren't that easy to crack, there are plenty of other ways to go about it.

A biological attack would be effective, and if it swept the globe fast enough there would be China Syndrome's occurring at all the unmanned nuclear power plants in good time, and the resulting radiation would probably get anyone remaining after the biological attack.

I could go on and on with this, but the key to conquering Earth is nowhere near as complicated or expensive as it may seem.

I would have gone with the option of hurling large rocks at Earth until one obliterated the human race but it would take those rocks a long time to get here and humans may have infected more planets by then, which would make getting them all a lot more difficult.

On the other hand, attacking now, at the speed of light, would offer the greatest chance of success.

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Lets get 'em!

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"I will do my best to understand and explain the universe from big to small without invoking miracles, unrepeatable events, or divine intervention. In place of those things I will use observations, mathematics, and science."


-Cross
My travel blog

Some of my Astrophotography


Those that lack education have a hard time understanding its value. - Cross

If you're a paranoid star faring species, it is much, much easier just to look for indications of life and go after that. That way you have plenty of time (millions of years), you don't need to waste energy on relativistic weapons or take the chance that an intelligent species will get away from you before you can get there.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

Most prophets of doom seem to really look forward to the results of self-fulfilling prophecies.

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Ironic to think you're accusing astronomers of hubris.

I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill and think things over. And meanwhile carefully consider what you're claiming about folks here who don't agree with you.

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Um... thanks for the advice... Um, what is a stress pill? Any links to a brand?? What do they do? Sounds interesting....

I claim that folk who cant follow the basic three points are not thinking clearly... It sounds like you disagree.... what with exactly?

As for the 'irony' of me claiming the message senders have hubris... Do you think I am showing hubris? Perhaps you could elaborate.... it is certainly not clear to me that there is any irony in the statement.

PS. A link to the top of the topic seems a bit of a waste to me... my poor old browser had to open a new page and download it all... only to discover that it was only the start of the topic.

It's what HAL tells Dave Bowman to take while Bowman is taking actions to disconnect HAL.It's not a case of "not following", instead it's a case of disagreeing: a different matter entirely.In accordance with your statement, if one doesn't accept what you wrote, then one is not thinking straight. Since I don't accept what you wrote as being self-evident, then per your statement I'm not thinking straight. Why would you want to read a critique of your claims by someone who isn't thinking straight?The irony is that you've attempted to rule out any disagreement with your claims by stating that they are self-evident and anyone who doesn't follow them or disagrees with them isn't thinking clearly. One definition of hubris is overbearing presumption, which accurately describes a position that either one accepts what is claimed or one is not thinking clearly.It serves a useful purpose by directing any reader to the post that was being referenced, the one in which you claimed that "Some astronomers through ignorance or hubris are deciding for the whole planet that its ok to shout out to the universe at large that we are here on earth."


For those who may think ole Mak is perhaps still thinking straight, I found the three claims and the recommended actions to be founded primarily on the basic "fight or flight" instinct. As we become (hopefully) a space-faring civilization, I trust that those troublesome instincts will become minor to nil in their effect on our decision-making processes, which perhaps will become more data-driven.

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Well said then.... I feel slightly foolish for missing that... [not being sarcastic] Good shot old man.

Fair enough then... I accept that it is entirely possible that I am wrong about my stand on this... (it wouldn't be the first time....) and am happy to hear argument to that affect.

Yeah... even I think that my claim to certainty is a bit over the top there... (put it down to one too many beers and my building frustration at a general lack of reasoned discourse on the topic... I don't normally descend to insult... I feel a bit chastened...)

But having said that... I don't think anyone has so far successfully disputed my point. Waiting to hear what you have to say on the matter....

Yep... I think I would have to agree with you there. Even I felt it to be so as I wrote it...

Still... whatever my failings as a debater... I believe the point stands. It seems to me, having seen things in many ways similar to this discussed over the years... global warming, whaling, animal cruelty, land deforestation and the decline of bio-diversity, the rights of polluters of the environment, second hand cigarette smoke.... they all started with some small band of folk saying 'hey, this isn't right...' and they generally initially got hooted down with cries of... 'don't be ridiculous... there is no evidence... its my right to do it...' Parallels abound.... unless of course you think its ridiculous.

Ok... at this moment I don't know if you are thinking straight or not... as far as I am concerned I am keen to see... (its my fight instinct... )

I don't know whether what you say about the basis of the claims is true or not.... but whatever the claims are based on... Are any of them wrong?

Good luck with that.... I haven't seen too much evidence of it so far. (not trying to be a smart__se... not saying that about you... I mean in the world generally)

But I do agree that in general we are slightly trending towards a more civilised society... (with notable exceptions...) and I agree that is something to be hoped for.

But, unfortunately, however high up the moral tree we climb... there is no certainty that _all_ other sapients aspire to that goal. If there was certainty or even high confidence... (and imagine how difficult it would be to reach a degree of scientific certainty or high confidence in this matter...), then I too would advocate shout out... we have so much to learn and gain by interaction with others. In time, as we learn more, we might be in a better position to evaluate the risks.

The thing that surprises me is that the same folk who say that the distance and timescales are prohibitive... seem to be mad keen to rush in and shout out now... as though there is some urgency to the task that precludes methodical data gathering. I put it down to a sense of frustration in the Seti community that so far there is nothing to show for our efforts. In general humans are not well suited to long term projects....

I look forward to any reasoned dispute of the three tenets.

There have been several pages of reasoned response to your "tenets." You have simply chosen to ignore them, and accuse anyone disagreeing with you of not being in their right mind.

And since you chose to completely ignore my post, let me sum it up: Any alien species even slightly more advanced than us technologically (let alone several thousand years ahead) could figure out we're here without us sending so much as one signal, intentional or otherwise, out into the universe. The entire argument is moot.

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