I have started using data supplied by NASA here to make calculations of the odds Earth will collide with a Near Earth Object in the linked table in the next 100 years. The result is here. You can sign up to be notified by email when the odds rise above and fall below certain levels.

hmm sounds very interesting

What does the bad astronomer have to say? :roll:

Hi mike, welcome to the board.

My question is how did you manage to get a 1 in 300 result?

There are only two bodies in that list that have a torino scale above 0 (ie: any appreciable chance of hitting the earth at all). Both of these two objects have over a 99% chance of missing the Earth.

Yet you got 1 in 300? Can you explain how?

__________________
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Hi freddo, thanks for welcoming me. The probability that Earth will collide with at least one of the objects equals one minus the probability that it will collide with none of the objects. The probability that Earth will collide with none of the objects is the product of the individual probabilities that the objects will not collide with Earth (one minus the probability listed in the table). Multiplying these probabilities yields a 99.67 percent chance that Earth will not collide any of the objects, meaning there is a .33 percent chance it will collide with at least one of them, or 1 in 300.