Near certain hit at Oct 07 0246 UTC!

Kullat Nunu · #1 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 07:33 PM

A meteoroid, 2008 TC3, will hit the Earth's atmosphere in October 7 at 02:46 UTC. It is so small (1-5 meters) that it will likely not survive the atmospheric entry. However, it will be the first predicted impact on the Earth.

Currently the probability of impact seems to be 99.8%-100%.

From Minor Planet Circular 2008-T50

Quote:

The nominal orbit given above has 2008 TC3 coming to within one earth
radius around Oct. 7.1. The absolute magnitude indicates that the
object will not survive passage through the atmosphere.

Steve Chesley (JPL) reports that atmospheric entry will occur on 2008
Oct 07 0246 UTC over northern Sudan.

Kullat Nunu · #2 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 07:36 PM

Hits of objects of this size are not very rare, but its still really cool to know that one has been predicted!

Kullat Nunu · #3 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 07:55 PM

Observations are pouring in to the MPC. The orbit doesn't seem to change much.

pghnative · #4 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 08:30 PM

Is an object of this size expected to be more visible than the average "shooting star"? Is it worth trying to look for it? (esp in a light polluted area like NJ).

edit --- I missed the part about entering above northern Sudan, so would not be visible in NJ.

01101001 · #5 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 09:13 PM

BA Blog: Incoming!!!

Quote:

The meteors (what some people call shooting stars) you see randomly on an average night are as small as a grain of sand. Something as big as a grape would make a very bright fireball. A rock two meters across will be incredible.

Center for Astrophysics: Boulder-sized Asteroid Will Burn Up in Earth's Atmosphere Tonight

Quote:

A tiny asteroid discovered just hours ago at an Arizona observatory will enter Earth's atmosphere harmlessly at approximately 10:46 p.m. Eastern time tonight (2:46 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time). There is no danger to people or property since the asteroid will not reach the ground.

And, conspiracy theorists who think the big bad government would cover up news of this nature, this is the speed with which the next big one would be reported, too -- except being big we'd be more likely to know about it weeks or months or years in advance.

Quote:

"We want to stress that this object is not a threat," said Dr. Timothy Spahr, director of the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center.

"We're excited since this is the first time we have issued a prediction that an object will enter Earth's atmosphere," Spahr added. Odds are between 99.8 and 100 percent that the object will encounter Earth, according to calculations provided by Andrea Milani of the University of Pisa.

I can't wait for the movies.

slang · #6 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kullat Nunu

it will be the first predicted impact on the Earth.

That's just awesome. Thanks for the heads up, Kullat Nunu. Seen1st@BAUT!

01101001 · #7 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 09:46 PM

Entry interface
2008 October 6, 1946 PDT, Monday
2008 October 6, 2246 EDT, Monday
2008 October 7, 0246 UTC, Tuesday
2008 October 7, 0546 EAT, Tuesday -- East Africa Time, Sudan

5 hours to entry interface

Google Map: Darfur (just kidding)

Google Map: Darfur, Sudan

01101001 · #8 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 10:19 PM

Planetary Society Weblog: A three-meter-diameter piece of the sky is falling

Quote:

Objects of this size hit Earth a few times a year, but no one has ever spotted one on the way in before, so, kudos to Kowalski et al. The fact that it's been predicted allows astronomers, both professional and amateur, to study the color of the asteroid as it approaches. Then, if there are any appropriately instrumented observers in the right place (I don't know how many well-equipped astronomers there are in Sudan), they could capture spectra of the fireball, which would tell them volumes about what the asteroid was made of. If, by some chance, any pieces survive to hit the ground and get recovered (a very, very unlikely scenario, but it could happen), we could actually study the body's composition in a third way, with real hand samples. That would be an unprecedented data set on asteroids, helping to tie what we've learned from meteorites found on Earth to what we've learned from studying their light from space.

Nowhere Man · #9 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 10:43 PM

This is the cue for bmpbmp to ask if we're all gonna die. Where's he gotten to, I wonder?

Fred

01101001 · #10 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 10:48 PM

JPL Near Earth Object Program: Small Asteroid Predicted to Cause Brilliant Fireball over Northern Sudan

Quote:

A very small, few-meter sized asteroid, designated 2008 TC3, was found Monday morning by the Catalina Sky Survey from their observatory near Tucson Arizona. Preliminary orbital computations by the Minor Planet Center suggested an atmospheric entry of this object within a day of discovery. JPL confirmed that an atmospheric impact will very likely occur during early morning twilight over northern Sudan, north-eastern Africa, at 2:46 UT Tuesday morning. The fireball, which could be brilliant, will travel west to east (from azimuth = 281 degrees) at a relative atmospheric impact velocity of 12.8 km/s and arrive at a very low angle (19 degrees) to the local horizon. It is very unlikely that any sizable fragments will survive passage through the Earth's atmosphere.

Objects of this size would be expected to enter the Earth's atmosphere every few months on average but this is the first time such an event has been predicted ahead of time.

Robinson · #11 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 11:05 PM

I was happy to see the article mentioned the real reason it will burn up. And not the terribly wrong "friction with the atmosphere".

flynjack1 · #12 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 11:13 PM

I live out here in the Southwest and its still sunny here...did they find this last night and only recently compute its trajectory, or was it discovered with radio telescopes? Probably a stupid question, but I am trying to reconcile the discovery just hours ago with the fact that its a bright sunny day here, and has been for the last 10 hours.

01101001 · #13 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by flynjack1

I live out here in the Southwest and its still sunny here...did they find this last night[...]

It was dark this morning.

National Geographic: Boulder-Size Asteroid to Be Fireball Over Earth Tonight

Quote:

The space rock, dubbed 2008 TC3, was first spotted this morning by the Catalina Sky Survey observatory in Tucson, Arizona.

CSS News: CSS Asteroid Predicted to Cause Brilliant Fireball over Northern Sudan

Animated image there.

Edit: The CfA news release has a palatable image from the early morn, showing light stars and rocks (the streak) against a black background:

flynjack1 · #14 (**permalink**) 06-October-2008, 11:58 PM

Point taken...its dark in the early morning. I had only read the news from Spaceweather.com. and it only said that it was discovered "hours ago".

01101001 · #15 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 12:03 AM

Planetary Society Weblog: Simulation of the final moments of 2008 TC3

Quote:

Here's a neat animation of the view from boulder-sized asteroid 2008 TC3 as it makes its final approach to Earth tonight.

It's the last things 2008 TC3 sees. Runs a minute or two.

ngc3314 · #16 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 01:15 AM

The Wise Observatory fisheye camera is still in operation in Israel, and they might be close enough to see the fireball (although there is no guarantee that it will fall in their regular image cadence). The image archive for tonight is here.

Robinson · #17 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 01:34 AM

This is so cool. Of course if it was a 300 meter object, it would be, hmm, an entire different level of interesting.

01101001 · #18 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 01:36 AM

Entry interface
2008 October 6, 1946 PDT, Monday
2008 October 6, 2246 EDT, Monday
2008 October 7, 0246 UTC, Tuesday
2008 October 7, 0546 EAT, Tuesday -- East Africa Time, Sudan

70 minutes to entry interface

01101001 · #19 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 02:16 AM

Entry interface
2008 October 6, 1946 PDT, Monday
2008 October 6, 2246 EDT, Monday
2008 October 7, 0246 UTC, Tuesday
2008 October 7, 0546 EAT, Tuesday -- East Africa Time, Sudan

30 minutes to entry interface

01101001 · #20 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 02:36 AM

Entry interface
2008 October 6, 1946 PDT, Monday
2008 October 6, 2246 EDT, Monday
2008 October 7, 0246 UTC, Tuesday
2008 October 7, 0546 EAT, Tuesday -- East Africa Time, Sudan

10 minutes to entry interface

01101001 · #21 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 02:46 AM

Entry interface
2008 October 6, 1946 PDT, Monday
2008 October 6, 2246 EDT, Monday
2008 October 7, 0246 UTC, Tuesday
2008 October 7, 0546 EAT, Tuesday -- East Africa Time, Sudan

What's that burning smell?

spjung · #22 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 03:12 AM

So, did anyone see it? I saw a meteor at about 0255 UTC, but not a fireball. I don't know if that was it.

01101001 · #23 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 03:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spjung

So, did anyone see it? I saw a meteor at about 0255 UTC, but not a fireball. I don't know if that was it.

In New Jersey? It was on the other side of the world.

spjung · #24 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 04:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 01101001

In New Jersey? It was on the other side of the world.

I just reread BA's blog post saying it'll be visible in Eastern Africa. Well I did get to see a meteor anyway.

Andrey992 · #25 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 05:25 AM

http://www.spaceweather.com/ some pics of it

tony873004 · #26 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 05:40 AM

The local news already has video from Sudan. It broke up into many pieces as it made streaks of light across the sky.

I haven't seen any video yet on the internet. That's the first time the TV news had stumped the internet in years.

01101001 · #27 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 05:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spjung

Well I did get to see a meteor anyway.

That's good.

Emily Lakdawalla in the Planetary Society Weblog said she didn't see the bolide in any of the places that might be expected to carry pictures.

Me too.

I'm holding out hope that the images were just hard to get onto the Web.

tony873004 · #28 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 05:52 AM

Correction. I made my post after seeing their "teaser". In their story, they used stock video of what looked like a manmade-sateliite burnup with the quote "looked something like this."

Anyway, they ran it as a "wake-up-call" story. Aside from the misleading video in the teaser, it was a good story.

Jens · #29 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nowhere Man

This is the cue for bmpbmp to ask if we're all gonna die. Where's he gotten to, I wonder?

I think he/she doesn't have internet connection in the tornado/bomb shelter under the house.

Kullat Nunu · #30 (**permalink**) 07-October-2008, 12:07 PM

Animation of Earth viewed from 2008 TC3

The animation spans only 2 h 47 min. That thing went fast!

Notice at the end of the animation how Earth's gravity bends the orbit of the asteroid.

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