I am sorry to inform everyone but:

http://qntm.org/?board

All Points Bullitan...
... Earth has been destroyed ! Bother. I was not ready for this....
At which point I observed the sky turning from a clear blue to black just as the earth beneath me seemed to just fold away.....
Quite alarming as a great deal of noise and then.....

... and then I just jumped into the next dimension and resumed normality in a parallel universe.

Can we predict the end of the world ? Given enough information YES.
As the excellent set of links has shown the list of global ending cataclysmic events is not small. Fortunately it could be argued that by the same set of rules that allowed life to start its tenuous journey here... the odds are staked against us, and for us... I am leaning to the later.
We can almost rule some of the event out. Not that they are impossible but, that the frequency of such events is at this time we can rule them out as realistic possibilities of the end of the world. At this juncture I now want to know if some of those world ending events suggested can be removed from the list of probable life ending events simply because we have no proof that such has or could ever happen. That would I think lessen the probability. Being imposable. At some point also we need to establish as to what is meant by 'end of world'... Do you mean life extinguishing gamma ray burst. Or planet destruction impactor. Reminding you at that we have reasonable evidence that the moon was the end result of a collision of major consaquence..., and here we are in spite of or because of... The resultant planet after coalescence might be a better place for the said life to re emerge yet again. It will be different. Different is good. Is life the normal end result of a in the temperate zone planet with the composition to bear life. Just because we have no evidence of life does not suggest to me it is not going to found abundantly across the galaxies... Its here. Then it must be there.
Yes we could face an extinction event by cosmic events... but it could be also why we are here.
I came into this discussion because I see a fear. Look at the number of nova events per Galaxy per year... Look at the local star group and detect the danger from Gama ray bursts?. Have we yet detected a large enough impacting meteor ? Have we knowledge of wondering stars that could disturb this calm ? Do we know of a wondering black hole? No, no, no, and no.... relax. The odds are stacked in our favour... until

not really, i mean if you saw an asteroid hurtiling to earth you could "predict" the end of the world but theres still a chance that something could happen and that the asteriod would vear off corse so you more like predicting the possibility of the world ending because nothing is a sure fire thing

PS: noclevername arnt grey goo and clanking replicators the same thing?

The answer here is obvious. So much so that i am having trouble understanding how you could have missed it. Oh well.

The true answer is:

"Whenever <Insert whichever radical religious or political group with an extremist attitude you don't like> gets some serious funding.

But no. I reckon we are well on our way to exterminating ourselves within a few centuries. The only thing we pursue with more enthusiasm than our own destruction is procreation, and by gum we have done a few things to bring the human race back within the range of self inflicted genocide.

As others have said, yes its very easy to make predictions, hard to be accurate. Given the number of factors involved one would either need to be prescient or merely lucky to get it right.

__________________
My mother didn't drop me down the stairs as a child. I jumped!

The world will survive because of this fundamental equation:

P = R* x f_p x n_e x f_l x f_i x f_c x L

Where:
P is the probability of survival
R* is the average marriage rate (focus on *!)
f_p is the average number of babes(p=products)/couple
n_e is the average number of children (e= enfants) visiting a university
f_l is the actual fraction of the above that actually start learning
f_i is the actual fraction of the above that start asking intelligent questions
f_c is the actual fraction of the above that are familiar with calculus
L is the length of time they need to calculate P

After some elementary calculations this results in
P = 0.5 = yes or no

Sorry, Unregistered, I couldn´t resist. Vacation starts within a few hours. Hopefully, you will stay here with BAUT, post more questions, and get much better responses than this one

BTW, my result is at least as reliable as Drake´s result

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If everyone had even a basic grasp of scientific principles, this planet would be a better place (Phil Plait)

Die Lücke, die wir hinterlassen, ersetzt uns vollkommen [The gap we will leave behind will take our place entirely] (Carl Heinz Schroth)

1 + e^i*pi = 0

and if we could only shut up Hoagland, you wouldn't have heard it just now.

Coinciding troughs of all the supercycles in human culture will cause the end of mankind.

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So it goes.

That list of ways to destroy earth is certainly quite interesting.
I wonder if it would be possible to change one of the universal constants, or if one could just spontaneously change? That could destroy earth, and everything else too!
does the end of mankind include self extermination/WW3? Because that will probably happen eventually, even though it won't destroy earth itself (at least I'd think it wouldn't)

"This is the way the world ends, this is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper" T.S. Eliot

I'd rather have the bang myself, but that's just hormones.

Throughout its history, the earth usually had no people on it. so the likely cause of our extinction will be regression to the mean.

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Life is like a box of chocolates. All of your choices are bad for you.

Thats the problem with variables, they really do mess up preditions.
The super volcano underlying Yellowstone, a meteorite impact, a massive solar flare
that would destroy the power grids that support our lifestyle because the transformers
not time to react to the overload. 20 mins reaction time, 8 mins from the sun.
We not prepared for it, nor asteroid impact, just a bunch of dedicated amateurs
looking for rogues.
Tomorrow has been cancelled due to lack of interest.
Seems I am banned from posting a new thread, can't understand why, caused
no one any offence, and no intention to.
Or maybe my opinions not sit too well with the moderators here.
Care less, I do not suscribe to anything that denies an open mind, or creates
barriers to open discussion about anything the human mind can conceive of.
Nokton.

If you were banned from opening an new thread you wouldn't be able to reply to this thread either. There are some known issues with one or two words that cause technical trouble when used in the title of a thread. So pick a different title, perhaps even a temporary one, post what you want, and ask the mods through the triangle icon to please change the title to what you wanted.

__________________
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" -- Charles Darwin
"Your right to hold an opinion is not being contested. Your expectation that it be taken seriously is." -- Jason Thompson
Meet the OOONG TOE.

Thankyou slang, much appreciate.
Nokton.

I have no reason to doubt the 2012 date for bye bye earth. It is the most commonly accepted date. If I am to NOT believe it, I need some scientific proof that it will NOT happen then.

Welcome to BAUT. You have no reason to doubt it? Why would you believe it?

According to . . . ? I've been through a few "end of the world" dates.

Can you provide scientific proof there is NOT an invisible elf in my backyard? There isn't any more evidence that the world will end in 2012 than there is that an invisible elf is in my yard.

__________________
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

The 2012 date was predicted by Nostradamus. Now I wouldn't believe just any old random guy, but on a History Channel documentary I heard that this guy had accurately predicted the 1st and 2nd World Wars, and even accurately predicted the 9/11 attacks. I believe likewise that the world will end in 2012.

The most commonly accepted date for the destruction of Earth is ca AD 5,000,000,000.

Re: End of the World predictions: A Brief History of the Apocalypse.

Re: 2012: A list of threads and articles discussing 2012 compiled by member 01101001.

1. 2003 no, 2012 si
2. 2012
3. End of Mayan Calendar
4. Pole shift / Planetary alignment 2012?
5. 2012 alignment question
6. about the Mayan 2012 item
7. 2012 Debunking?
8. Possible asteroid impact in 2012?
9. 2012 asteroid?
10. We don't have to worry about 2012!
11. More on 2012 from India Daily
12. 2012 Completion of conspiracy?
13. Here's what's REALLY going to happen in 2012...
14. crop circles, Planet X and 2012
15. Planet X, crop circles and 2012 cataclysma
16. According to the Mayans, what will happen on 23rd Dec. 2012?
17. More 2012 Nonsense
18. NEO 2012?
19. Dangerous NEO in 2012?
20. Christmas 2012
21. 2012 mayan calender end of world
22. Regarding the supposed polar shift/new ice age in 2012
23. New 2012 threat?
24. 2012 look at this thing on the sun
25. Russian Expert Predicts Global Cooling from 2012
26. Pole shift idea origins
27. Dec 20 2012
28. 2012 Stuff
29. No reply previous question
30. Horizon Project-New End of World Scare?
31. Date: December 21st 2012
32. Earth passing thru Galactic center in 2012 - didn't that already happen?
33. 2012: What do you think well happen (if anything)
34. So what will we see in 2012?
35. Galactic Tsunami?
36. Plane of the ecliptic of the galaxy?
37. Earth's Magnetic Field & 2012
38. 2012?
39. Any truth to this?
40. How can the sun be aligned with Galactic centre?
41. the whole 2012 poles flip nonsense
42. Planet X Official Advertisement
43. What year are we in
44. Quick question about the sun
45. Galactic Alignment
46. Books of 2012! -
47. 2007 = 2012
48. Return of Planet X By Rand
49. Don Alejandro - Mayan Elder.
50. Toutatis 4179: 2012?
51. Galactic Alignment in 2012 ?
52. Solar Storms
53. A real prediction!
54. NIBURU - Brown Dwarf, The DESTROYER
55. 2012 Galactic Alignment
56. Not 2012 again! But I cant help it~
57. New evidence for 2012 TEOTWAWKI!!!
58. this may be a silly question but...
59. Just to know if this is true
60. Just Wondering...
61. Planet X/Nibiru, is it real?
62. Youv heard this a million times.
63. Nibaru or Planet X
64. Mayan calendar
65. 2012 Article?
66. can i say something please on planet x
67. Nibiru
68. The growing earth.... :P
69. Our Solar System's Eclipse of the Galactic Plane on Dec 21, 2012?
70. Something scaring the hell out of me....
71. It's Only the end of the World AGAIN!!! (Woo Woo Alert)
72. 2021 Doomsday
73. is it just me or is the milky way brighter..?
74. Polar Shift in 2012?
75. I would like to ask about Nubiru stuff...
76. Bit behind the times, my appologies...
77. the "pole shift thing"
78. All the Truth about 2012
79. Confused about 2012 (yes, another one!)
80. Another paranoia mind due to 2012
81. novelty theory
82. Possibility of Pole Shift
83. 2012 Vectors
84. Nibiru Question
85. Odd things floating on google sky
86. 2012 end of the world?
87. 2012 and Solar Storms?
88. Nibiru

Universe Today: No Doomsday in 2012
Bad Astronomy Blog: 2012, the year nothing will happen
Universe Today: 2012: No Planet X
Universe Today: 2012: Planet X is not Nibiru
Universe Today: 2012: No Killer Solar Flare
Universe Today: 2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal
Universe Today: 2012: No Comet
Universe Today: Another Voice Against 2012 Mania

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Join the Illuminati

Do you have references for these claimed accurate predictions? Do you have any references to Nostradamus making specific, clear statements about 2012?

I'm not asking for interpretations of vague statements or things claimed to be from Nostradamus but not. I'm looking for specific, clear, accurate predictions made by Nostradamus.

__________________
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

It is possible to predict the end of mankind -- Yes.

Is it possible to accurately predict the end of mankind -- probably not.

__________________
There are few left who
Stare at the skies with wonder
Wishing to know more;
The clouds still drift by above
But the eyes below are blind.
--Laura Lundberg

Check out my writing, maybe.

My source was already stated. It was the History Channel.

"The History Channel" doesn't cover much. They show quality programs, and they show not-so-quality programs. For instance, one of the shows dealing with the technology of Troy got the recipe for bronze entirely wrong, invalidating about 1/3rd of the show's explanations.

Regardless, there's a myriad of "sources" that are given air time on the History Channel. More detail as to specifics would be more helpful than to point at an entire channel.

__________________
There are few left who
Stare at the skies with wonder
Wishing to know more;
The clouds still drift by above
But the eyes below are blind.
--Laura Lundberg

Check out my writing, maybe.

So, can you show, here, any specific, clear Nostradamus statements about 2012? Can you show clear, specific and accurate Nostradamus predictions about the other events you mentioned? Have you researched this yourself, or are you relying on a sensational TV show?

__________________
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

Probably the latter, as it is an educational channel so I trust the material on it.

That's a dangerous way of living life. Any hack can make an "educational" show, and the History Channel has a history (heh) of putting on conspiracy gobbledygook and poorly-made "educational" shows.

It's like stating that anyone that wears glasses looks intelligent, so you always believe what they say.

__________________
There are few left who
Stare at the skies with wonder
Wishing to know more;
The clouds still drift by above
But the eyes below are blind.
--Laura Lundberg

Check out my writing, maybe.

Oh, dear.

Seriously? There are certain shows on the History Channel that are reliable, intelligent, and well-researched. Then there is anything with the word "Nostradamus" in it.

__________________
Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

Ben, don't trust the History channel. Long ago the producers decided that "sensationalism" and the associated revenue were more important than actual, historical fact.

In my opinion this is proof positive of the damage the so called History channel is doing.

eta...ok, some of their shows are good, but I'm wary of what they present unless I can varify it through secondary sources. .

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"The facts gentlemen, and nothing but the facts, for careful eyes are narrowly watching." Isaac Asimov

I too would recommend against that. I used to like the History channel, but not today. Especially in recent years, there have been too many cases where I watched a show, and if it was on a subject I was familiar with, found errors. There have been too many one sided shows on sensationalistic subjects. I don't trust them to present balanced, careful research.

Do a search on BAUT and you'll find a number of threads on bad science on the history channel.

Anyway, with regard to Nostradamus, if you're going to take it seriously, you really should research it yourself. In my research, I've seen a lot of wild interpretations of extremely unclear material, ridiculous leaps of logic and things that weren't actually by Nostradamus, but claimed to be. I see no reason to take this stuff seriously.

__________________
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

It helps too to be clear about what is meant by the term 'the world' -- society? humankind? life on Earth? the Earth itself? the Sun? matter? time? What qualifies these ideas, i.e. would a distant descendant of humankind who may be genetically different enough from current humans to be considered a new species count, or would humankind have effectively 'ended' by then?

It's really a ludicrous question to ask 'when will the world end?' Even a scientific prediction about when the Earth may become unsuitable for life is not a hard line and not, as the question often implies, a clear view of future events. An unpredictable cosmic catastrophe could alter that prediction in ways that may shift the deadline sooner or even further such as a chance encounter with an interloper through our solar system could nudge the orbit of earth nearer to or further from the Sun, changing that potential date for good or ill.

As for Nostradamus, well.. lol. No, he didn't predict any of our world wars, or any sort of end times. As far as I know all he did was write vague poetry in an obscure French dialect during the middle ages. Do not trust something presented on TV just because it is presented on a what is perceived as an educational channel. Even PBS can't be trusted (*cough*deepakchopra*cough*). The previous poster's comment is correct. If it is a subject which genuinely interests you, begin your own research and find out what the truth is. Apply the scientific method diligently and see what you find.

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Confirmed Carl Sagan fan.

Bloodtoes,

Great intro for a play on words.

The end of the world as we know it by the sun's incineration from expansion is supposed to be about 5 billion years away based upon the current predictions that I am aware of? A couple more billion years and the Earth, if it still exists, will be a frozen rock as the sun becomes a white dwarf star.

The end of mankind on the other hand could be much sooner if there is a natural or man-made disaster in the next few hundred years. Otherwise the probability of space, lunar and Martian habitation by Earthlings will steadily rise until after a few thousand years it may be very difficult to get rid of all of us buggers -- and extinction possibilities could rapidly decrease.

This would be a bad thing for our alien enemies.

Back to the original question: "Is it possible to predict the end of mankind?" Absolutely. In fact it is inevitable that someone will do it, unless human nature changes drastically. Just think, there are thousands of mystics, shamans, astrologers, psychics and just plain crackpots out there making thousands of predictions every day. If mankind ever ends, one or several of them surely will have predicted it. It's not an easy thing to do, but it's almost a statistical certainty that someone will do it.