Chatroom
 

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Bad Astronomy and Universe Today Forum > Bad Astronomy > Bad Astronomy Stories
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

   

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #1 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 04:16 AM
Unregistered
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Default Is it possible to predict the end of mankind? (not 2012)

NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?
Reply With Quote
  #2 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 04:49 AM
01101001's Avatar
01101001 01101001 is offline
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 13,794
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?
Sure. It's possible to predict when the world will end. But, it can be hard to be right about the prediction.

It's much easier to be right when one has good data and logic backing up the claim.

Of the near-term predictions I've seen made for when the world will end, inevitably the predictors have bad data, bad logic, and often both.

(Thank you for not talking about the year 2012 hogwash.)
__________________
0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 ...
Reply With Quote
  #3 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 04:55 AM
Neverfly Neverfly is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas/Ft.Worth, Texas
Posts: 13,420
Send a message via Yahoo to Neverfly
Default

Absolutely.
Pick your poison.
GRB? Supernova?
Major Impactor?
Reply With Quote
  #4 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 05:10 AM
Noclevername's Avatar
Noclevername Noclevername is offline
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 11,122
Default

Grey goo? Bioweapon? Clanking replicators? Antimatter? Close pass by a rogue star? Galactic jet? Alien pest control, such as a relativistic weapon to eliminate the competition? Berserker swarm? Planet hatching? Sudden Existence Failure?
__________________
"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction."
Shakespeare, Twelfth Night
"The Mayan symbol for "book" looks a lot like a triple hamburger, but I've never seen them claiming it as proof the Mayans had Big Macs." - KaiYeves
"Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort
Reply With Quote
  #5 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 05:18 AM
Neverfly Neverfly is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas/Ft.Worth, Texas
Posts: 13,420
Send a message via Yahoo to Neverfly
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noclevername View Post
Sudden Existence Failure?
Oh, that one is one of my personal favorites.
Reply With Quote
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 01:23 PM
Ilya's Avatar
Ilya Ilya is online now
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Boston
Posts: 3,537
Default

Wandering Damage. [points if you figure out what it means]
__________________
Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint.
Reply With Quote
  #7 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 01:28 PM
LotusExcelle's Avatar
LotusExcelle LotusExcelle is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Rochester, NY
Posts: 1,398
Send a message via MSN to LotusExcelle
Default

This is how the world will end: misadventure with a pie and copper lawn ornaments.
__________________
---"Why do things have to suck so bad?" a friend once asked me.
"Because space is a vacuum and that's a lot of suck." I replied.
(Actual quote)---
Reply With Quote
  #8 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 01:32 PM
Whirlpool's Avatar
Whirlpool Whirlpool is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Manila , Philippines
Posts: 2,908
Send a message via MSN to Whirlpool
Default

WORLD ends with D.
Reply With Quote
  #9 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 01:36 PM
Neverfly Neverfly is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas/Ft.Worth, Texas
Posts: 13,420
Send a message via Yahoo to Neverfly
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ilya View Post
Wandering Damage. [points if you figure out what it means]
I think my shins figured that one out years ago. Usually on the edges of beds.
The top of my cranium too- usually victim to cabinet door corners.
Reply With Quote
  #10 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 02:29 PM
Ilya's Avatar
Ilya Ilya is online now
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Boston
Posts: 3,537
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neverfly View Post
I think my shins figured that one out years ago. Usually on the edges of beds.
The top of my cranium too- usually victim to cabinet door corners.
I have some Art Deco metal chairs with curved backs, and if wander into their corners... ouch!
__________________
Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint.
Reply With Quote
  #11 (permalink)  
Old 14-October-2008, 02:38 PM
Neverfly Neverfly is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas/Ft.Worth, Texas
Posts: 13,420
Send a message via Yahoo to Neverfly
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ilya View Post
I have some Art Deco metal chairs with curved backs, and if wander into their corners... ouch!
The funny thing is, after I posted that I went to the kitchen thinking daydreamy thoughts of breakfast... and discovered that I had jinxed myself.
Reply With Quote
  #12 (permalink)  
Old 15-October-2008, 02:52 AM
ravens_cry's Avatar
ravens_cry ravens_cry is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,088
Default

Making predictions is hard, especially about the future. I believe Yogi Berra said that.
Though as everyone else has pointed out, it is accurate predictions that are the real brain busters.
And isn't Wandering Damage some old Dungeons and Dragons table?
__________________
"The Internet is really, really great..."
Avenue Q

"And a disintegrator beam. People listen when you have a disintegrator beam."
mike alexander
Reply With Quote
  #13 (permalink)  
Old 15-October-2008, 01:22 PM
Ilya's Avatar
Ilya Ilya is online now
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Boston
Posts: 3,537
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ravens_cry View Post
And isn't Wandering Damage some old Dungeons and Dragons table?
No, it was a joke on a Dungeons and Dragons table. "Wandering monsters" were not a fixed part of a dungeon, but would randomly appear, usually generated by random rolls on a Wandering Monster Table. They were a way for the DM to weaken a too-strong party before it reached its main goal, or just to be sadistic. The joke was: since the only purpose of Wandering Monsters is to inflict damage on the party, the DM could save time by skipping the middleman and just rolling for Wandering Damage. Or, as a friend of mine liked to say, Wandering Case of Brain Death (she claimed to know a lot of people in real life to whom that happened).
__________________
Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint.
Reply With Quote
  #14 (permalink)  
Old 15-October-2008, 08:12 PM
Disinfo Agent Disinfo Agent is offline
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 7,112
Default

Dear Unregistered:

You'll like the thread The Carter Catastrophe.
__________________
"A witty saying proves nothing" Voltaire.
"All your bias are belong to us" Ara Pacis.
Reply With Quote
  #15 (permalink)  
Old 16-October-2008, 01:51 AM
KaiYeves's Avatar
KaiYeves KaiYeves is offline
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Currently on assignment on planet shown in avatar photo
Posts: 10,249
Default

Quote:
Sure. It's possible to predict when the world will end. But, it can be hard to be right about the prediction.
Reminds me of that Shakespeare play where one guy says he can call spirits, and another guy goes "Anybody can. But will they come when you call?"
__________________
When you're standing on the edge of nowhere, there's only one way up...
"If you think the LHC will create black holes, you might as well believe Hobbits are at the bottom of your garden."- Dr. Mike Inglis
Rovers forever! - ToSeek
Reply With Quote
  #16 (permalink)  
Old 16-October-2008, 04:09 AM
megrfl's Avatar
megrfl megrfl is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Treasure Coast, Florida
Posts: 957
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?
The world ending? If we knew that a giant meteoroid was going to hit Earth and when, but would that mean the world would absolutely end? I don't know.
__________________
Please pass the sweet potatoes.
Reply With Quote
  #17 (permalink)  
Old 16-October-2008, 04:15 AM
ravens_cry's Avatar
ravens_cry ravens_cry is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,088
Red face

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ilya View Post
No, it was a joke on a Dungeons and Dragons table. "Wandering monsters" were not a fixed part of a dungeon, but would randomly appear, usually generated by random rolls on a Wandering Monster Table. They were a way for the DM to weaken a too-strong party before it reached its main goal, or just to be sadistic. The joke was: since the only purpose of Wandering Monsters is to inflict damage on the party, the DM could save time by skipping the middleman and just rolling for Wandering Damage. Or, as a friend of mine liked to say, Wandering Case of Brain Death (she claimed to know a lot of people in real life to whom that happened).
I am glad it was a joke, because if my DM tried that on my I would personally leap across the table and rip out his throat with my teeth. Either that or send him a nasty sounding letter, I can't decide.
__________________
"The Internet is really, really great..."
Avenue Q

"And a disintegrator beam. People listen when you have a disintegrator beam."
mike alexander
Reply With Quote
  #18 (permalink)  
Old 16-October-2008, 04:42 PM
Ilya's Avatar
Ilya Ilya is online now
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Boston
Posts: 3,537
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ravens_cry View Post
I am glad it was a joke, because if my DM tried that on my I would personally leap across the table and rip out his throat with my teeth. Either that or send him a nasty sounding letter, I can't decide.
I suppose it depends on whether you are playing in person or over the Internet...
__________________
Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint.
Reply With Quote
  #19 (permalink)  
Old 16-October-2008, 05:56 PM
SagoSans SagoSans is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: UE/EU
Posts: 24
Default

hi,

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?
I'm new to this board, so i still haven't learned enough to reliably predict if/when a "Vacuum metastability event" will take place.

According to wikipedia, Coleman and de Luccia noted in "Gravitational effects on and of vacuum decay". Physical Review D21: 3305.:

Quote:
The possibility that we are living in a false vacuum has never been a cheering one to contemplate. Vacuum decay is the ultimate ecological catastrophe; in the new vacuum there are new constants of nature; after vacuum decay, not only is life as we know it impossible, so is chemistry as we know it. However, one could always draw stoic comfort from the possibility that perhaps in the course of time the new vacuum would sustain, if not life as we know it, at least some structures capable of knowing joy. This possibility has now been eliminated.
wikipedia further tells:
Quote:
If a bubble of lower energy vacuum were nucleated, it would approach at nearly the speed of light and destroy the Earth instantaneously, without any forewarning. Thus, this vacuum metastability event is a theoretical doomsday event.
I'm sure this qualifies for "end of the world" - enjoy!
Reply With Quote
  #20 (permalink)  
Old 16-October-2008, 09:26 PM
Bakihtar's Avatar
Bakihtar Bakihtar is offline
Newbie
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: coldspring texas
Posts: 8
Default

yes you can

i predict in roughly 5 billion years from now our sun will grow and then blink out

i also predict that in 5 billion years from now our sister galaxy Andromeda will hit the milky way and throw oour sun to the other side passing the center of the milky way



with the only thing left at the end of it all is a 2 headed man wondering around arguing with himself about what just happend
__________________
WE did go to the moon so get over it
Reply With Quote
  #21 (permalink)  
Old 20-October-2008, 08:17 AM
ravens_cry's Avatar
ravens_cry ravens_cry is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,088
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bakihtar View Post
yes you can

i predict in roughly 5 billion years from now our sun will grow and then blink out

i also predict that in 5 billion years from now our sister galaxy Andromeda will hit the milky way and throw oour sun to the other side passing the center of the milky way



with the only thing left at the end of it all is a 2 headed man wondering around arguing with himself about what just happend
That may not be the end of mankind, just the End of Earth. And anyway, unless mankind (or another intelligent life form) does something, life on Earth will be impossible in about 70 million years.
__________________
"The Internet is really, really great..."
Avenue Q

"And a disintegrator beam. People listen when you have a disintegrator beam."
mike alexander
Reply With Quote
  #22 (permalink)  
Old 20-October-2008, 09:27 AM
Neverfly Neverfly is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas/Ft.Worth, Texas
Posts: 13,420
Send a message via Yahoo to Neverfly
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ravens_cry View Post
That may not be the end of mankind, just the End of Earth. And anyway, unless mankind (or another intelligent life form) does something, life on Earth will be impossible in about 70 million years.
Impossible from.... The Micro Black Holes?
Reply With Quote
  #23 (permalink)  
Old 20-October-2008, 10:06 AM
ravens_cry's Avatar
ravens_cry ravens_cry is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,088
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neverfly View Post
Impossible from.... The Micro Black Holes?
No, from the sun heating up as it ages. That's what I heard any way. Not the red dwarf stage, nowhere near it, but enough over time to evaporate the oceans and turn Earth into a Venus.
__________________
"The Internet is really, really great..."
Avenue Q

"And a disintegrator beam. People listen when you have a disintegrator beam."
mike alexander
Reply With Quote
  #24 (permalink)  
Old 20-October-2008, 11:35 AM
Neverfly Neverfly is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas/Ft.Worth, Texas
Posts: 13,420
Send a message via Yahoo to Neverfly
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ravens_cry View Post
No, from the sun heating up as it ages. That's what I heard any way. Not the red dwarf stage, nowhere near it, but enough over time to evaporate the oceans and turn Earth into a Venus.
The sun will heat up and evaporate the Earths oceans in 70 million years?
Hmmm...
I never heard that one...
Reply With Quote
  #25 (permalink)  
Old 20-October-2008, 08:31 PM
m1omg's Avatar
m1omg m1omg is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1,479
Default

Sorry, at least 500 million years, not 70.
And we probably will adopt - the killer would not be the temperature but the depletion of CO2 due to it, which we are richly dispersing even now

Anyway, if humanity survives for 500 million years then it long wouldn't be humanity, but something more akin to gods.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by connor240287 View Post
Dont say its Fake cos I Have Seen it on TV.

Cos no One can Say its a Reflection off Clouds etc Like we See on Earth.
Reply With Quote
  #26 (permalink)  
Old 20-October-2008, 08:55 PM
Disinfo Agent Disinfo Agent is offline
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 7,112
Wink

Welcome to the end of the world.
__________________
"A witty saying proves nothing" Voltaire.
"All your bias are belong to us" Ara Pacis.
Reply With Quote
  #27 (permalink)  
Old 21-October-2008, 02:22 PM
Swift's Avatar
Swift Swift is online now
Moderator
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: The beautiful north coast (Ohio)
Posts: 19,106
Default


A fine list of how to destroy the Earth
__________________
At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

One Earth, One Sky - IYA 2009
All moderation in purple
Reply With Quote
  #28 (permalink)  
Old 03-November-2008, 08:05 AM
Chip's Avatar
Chip Chip is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: 38.582 N / -121.49 W
Posts: 2,121
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Unregistered View Post
Is it possible to predict the end of mankind?;...NOT talking about 2012 here, just speaking in general, is it possible to predict when the world will end?
"End of mankind" and end of "the world" can be two different things. Considering the end of the human race as we know it today and barring all the calamities that the planet itself could face as described in Phil Plait's new book, we know from studying life on Earth that the human species of today will one day become extinct.

This need not be a totally depressing prospect because it is possible that we might evolve into a distantly related life-form, if there was a reason for it, or if we ourselves manipulated our own DNA for whatever reasons. (i.e. Future human colonists living on Mars might eventually evolve very differently from Earthbound relatives.) One could arbitrarily set a broad average, based on our studies of life on earth and say that mankind, if overcoming possible outside threats and avoiding our own stupidity, might last within approximately 100 thousand more years before dying off and/or changing into a hybrid humanlike new species. That's only a guess based on how long we've been here since CroMagnon times, about 40 thousand years ago.
__________________
"Insignificant molehill sometimes more important than conspicuous mountain." - Charlie Chan
Reply With Quote
  #29 (permalink)  
Old 12-February-2009, 10:34 PM
filrabat filrabat is offline
Established Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 322
Default

The End of Everything, by none other than Fraser himself.

End of Stars - 100 trillion years from now

The End of Regular Matter - 10^30 years

Some theories of physics predict that protons are unstable over long periods of time. They just can't last. Any matter that wasn't consumed by a black hole will start to decay. The protons will turn into radiation, leaving a fine mist of electrons, positrons, neutrinos and radiation to spread out into space.

Theorists anticipate that all protons in the Universe will decay over the course of 1030 years.
Reply With Quote
  #30 (permalink)  
Old 13-February-2009, 01:11 PM
Argos's Avatar
Argos Argos is online now
Order of Kilopi
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: 22°20'42"S / 49°03'14"W
Posts: 8,145
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by filrabat View Post
The End of Everything, by none other than Fraser himself.

End of Stars - 100 trillion years from now

The End of Regular Matter - 10^30 years

Some theories of physics predict that protons are unstable over long periods of time. They just can't last. Any matter that wasn't consumed by a black hole will start to decay. The protons will turn into radiation, leaving a fine mist of electrons, positrons, neutrinos and radiation to spread out into space.

Theorists anticipate that all protons in the Universe will decay over the course of 1030 years.
Then the gods m1omg mentioned will say: Fiat Lux!
__________________
What brings us together is stronger than what pulls us apart
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
the "pole shift thing" law245 Bad Astronomy Stories 18 21-January-2010 04:50 PM
It's Only the end of the World AGAIN!!! (Woo Woo Alert) Sticks Off-Topic Babbling 33 05-October-2008 10:42 PM
is it just me or is the milky way brighter..? gatorain Against the Mainstream 35 13-September-2008 11:02 AM
I would like to ask about Nubiru stuff... nesta Space/Astronomy Questions and Answers 5 11-September-2008 01:39 PM
2021 Doomsday mblankenship001@cinci.rr. Bad Astronomy Stories 10 01-September-2008 02:57 PM


All times are GMT. The time now is 04:22 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2010, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
LinkBacks Enabled by vBSEO 3.0.0
©  2006 Bad Astronomy and Universe Today