Winston: hola, have you heard about those japs planning to bomb Pearl Harbor?

FDR: Nope, how've you been?

Winston: Great except for the whole war thing. What about those japs?

FDR: We have all our planes lined up so they can blow them to hell. We'll be in the war shortly. BRB<>

I can make stuff up too.

__________________
You're a coward and a liar and a thOOF - Bart Sibrel

But can you answer my question?A yes, no, or a suggestion on where to verify or debunk the transcript is what I was hoping for. The fact that you can write fiction isn't relevant.

The alleged transcript is the first I have seen of its type though that's not saying much.

I do recall from David Kahn's, "The Codebreakers" that the scrambler between Washington and London was not particularly secure. It seems unlikely that Churchill (and Roosevelt) would discuss something as sensitive as the UK's code breaking in that fashion since it would seem to be a natural for the Germans to pass along that information in some fashion to the Japanese.

I find it unlikely that something as American as a Freedom of Information Act would bring out German records unless the authors were meaning that the US seized German records. If the transcript came from US archives, then the FOIA request should be traceable. To butress their case, the authors should have included (maybe they did but not evident in your posting) the FOIA request.

Chain of evidence. Can't do much about what the Germans did or US intell in the aftermath of WWII, but showing the FOIA request would allow anybody else to do likewise, if so inclined, and thereby help validate where the transcript came from and by implication its contents.

The appendix consists of an excerpt of a telephone call from Winston Churchill to Franklin Delano Roosevelt on November 26, 1941.

This "transcript" first appeared in a 1995 book called Gestapo Chief: The 1948 Interrogation of Heinrich Müller by "Gregory Douglas." The problem is, Müller (who was in fact head of the Gestapo), disappeared after the war, and was never found (at least not as far as Western intelligence agencies have been able to determine).

From a Wikipedia article:
The source of the transcript is from German records made available by use of the Freedom of Information Act.

So the author claims. There is no independent corroboration of this. Further, the book and many of "Douglas's" documents, including the transcript, have been denounced as fraudulent even by leading Holocaust deniers such as David Irving and Mark Weber.

(Note that virtually all deniers are keen to claim that FDR conspired to bring the US into the war; if there were anything at all to this transcript they would undoubtedly be loudly proclaiming its authenticity. Note also that Irving's racist and anti-Semitic views do not alter the fact that he is generally regarded as one of the foremost living authorities on German documents from World War II.)

Additionally, there are many problems with the "transcript." Following are some of the high (low) points.


Secret State Matter No. 321/41 Time: 26.11.41 Hour: 03.15
Conversation Participants
A=Franklin Roosevelt, Washington
B=Winston Churchill, London

B: Let me preface my information with an explanation addressing the reason I have not alluded to these facts earlier. In the first place, until today, the information was not firm. On matters of such gravity, I do not like to indulge in idle chatter. Now, I have in my hands, reports from our agents in Japan as well as the most specific intelligence in the form of the highest level Japanese naval coded messages (conversation broken) for some time now.

No Japanese orders directly pertaining to the Pearl Harbor attack were ever sent over the radio, or even by cable. They were all hand-carried by couriers, in order to preserve operational security.

A powerful Japanese task force comprising (composed of) six of their carriers, two battleships and a number of other units to include (including) tankers and cruisers, has sailed yesterday from a secret base in the northern Japanese islands (2)

Hitokappu Bay was not "a secret base" -- it was merely extremely remote. Further, 0315 London time is 1215 Tokyo time the same day, so this conversation would have occurred just after the Japanese strike force had sailed (the morning of November 26, Tokyo time)--not the next day. If the intercept was marked Berlin or Paris time (more likely), it was 1115 Tokyo time.

B: Yes, we have all of that. (Interruption)... are far more advance than you in our reading of the Jap naval operations codes.

No. See comments following on codebreaking

B: One of the sources is the individual who supplied us the material on the diplomatic codes that (conversation broken)(6) and a Naval officer(sic) whom our service has compromised.

No information concerning such prewar espionage activity has ever been unearthed by any reputable historian.

A: I think torpedoes would be ruled out at the outset. Pearl is far too shallow to permit a successful torpedo attack.(9)

No. See comments following.

B: The actual date give is the eighth of December. That's a Monday(10)

B: The Japs are asking (conversation broken) exact dispositions of your ships on a regular basis.

This was known by the Americans, as these reports were made in diplomatic codes, which the US had broken.

A: But Monday seems odd. Are you certain?
B: It is in the calendar, Monday is the eighth (conversation broken)

See comments following.

A: Then I will have to consider the entire problem. A Japanese attack on us, which would result in war between us and certainly you as well... would certainly fulfill two of the most important requirements of our policy.

This snippet points up two major fallacies of virtually all Pearl Harbor conspiracies. First, that the Japanese would have called off the war had they been forced to cancel the attack on Hawaii. The Japanese high command had vigorously opposed the operation as too risky; only Admiral Yammamoto's threat to resign persuaded the leadership to allow it.

Second, a Japanese attack on the Philippines and other American posessions in the Far East would still have resulted in war between the US and Japan.

A: I do appreciate your loyalty, Winston. What on the other hand, will happen here of one of our intelligence people is able to intercept, decipher and deliver to me the same information you just gave me? I cannot ignore this.

To reiterate, no orders directly concerning the Pearl Harbor operation were sent via radio. Further, as Budiansky and others have pointed out, the US was just beginning to penetrate JN-25 at the time.

2) Hittokappu Bay in the Kuriles.

Again, Hitokappu Bay was not "a secret base--" it was merely a remote location.

4) The Americans had broken the Japanese Naval Operations codes, call by the US Navy JN-25, but were not as advanced in translating them as were the British.

No. By December, 1941, only a few thousand "words" of the 50,000+ word vocabulary of JN-25 had been tentatively identified; mostly numbers and letters. Further, the US and British were exchanging their information, so each knew roughly as much as the other. And the British were hampered by a severe shortage of Japanese speakers. See Battle of Wits by Stephen Budiansky.

6) It has long been thought that the breaking of the so-called Japanese Purple diplomatic code was due to treasonable activities on the part of a Japanese diplomatic official and not to the efforts of US codebreakers.

No. Again, see Budiansky for the accurate story.

9) This was a common error in US thinking. The Japanese had developed special fins for their aerial torpedoes what would permit them to be used in shallow waters. Normally, torpedoes dropped from an aircraft would sink to a considerable depth before beginning their run in shallow anchorages like Pearl Harbor, in effect these torpedoes would embed themselves in the mud at the bottom of the harbor.

No. In June, 1941, the Chief of Naval Operations warned local commanders that no depth of water could be considered safe from aerial torpedo attack. Admiral Kimmel, the commander of the US Pacific Fleet, was copied on this message.

10) The date quoted by Churchill accurately reflects the on given in Japanese Naval intercepts. Unfortunately, neither Churchill nor British intelligence realized that the eighth was Tokyo time, one day ahead of the time at Pearl Harbor. The International Date line lies between Hawaii and Japan.

Here the forger is "too clever by half." US Naval Intelligence was well aware that all Japanese naval units kept their clocks on Tokyo time and that all Japanese orders and messages used Tokyo Time; the Royal Navy was undoubtedly also aware of this. And Churchill was obviously used to thinking about the time and date differences, presiding as he did over the far-flung British Empire.

__________________
--Doug

"When your statics problem becomes a dynamics problem, you're in trouble." --me

Moor's Law: "As you go from freshman engineering to Ph.D., the amount of work required per credit hour doubles approximately every 18 months." --me, inspired by Prof. Scott Moor

Thanks. Your explanation helped a lot.

I'm far from an expert and when I stumbled over the book at a book sale a couple of years ago, it was my primary source. It sounded good to me, but I was puzzled why such a 'smoking gun' would lay dormant as I never heard about it from any other source. When this thread surfaced, I realized that I did have a place where I could inquire and you came through.

Thanks again for taking the time to respond.

My great pleasure. Helping to correct conspiracist misinformation is always very gratifying.

__________________
--Doug

"When your statics problem becomes a dynamics problem, you're in trouble." --me

Moor's Law: "As you go from freshman engineering to Ph.D., the amount of work required per credit hour doubles approximately every 18 months." --me, inspired by Prof. Scott Moor

The BBC showed Tora Tora Tora to mark the anniversary. I forgot how dull it is until the end lol

__________________
All Moderation in Purple
To report a post (even this one) to the moderation team, click the reporting icon in the upper-right corner of the post:
─────────────────────────────────────────────
◄Rules For Posting To This Board ► ◄Forum FAQs ► ◄ Conspiracy Theory Advice ► ◄ Alternate Theory Advice ►

On the contrary, I find the run-up to the attack quite gripping. The whole story with Bratton & Layton trying to put the pieces together and trying to get the word out*, while the Japanese are making their final preparations always has me on the edge of my seat, no matter how many times I see it.

That scene where Bratton is going from locked door to locked door, trying to find someone to help him, is like something straight out of a nightmare; and when the warning telegram winds up in a delivery box, I just want to scream.

I watch this movie at least once a year, but the one time that I remember best was 20 years ago last April, when I was on a warship in the Mediterranian Sea. They showed this movie to the crew on the night we attacked Libya in retaliation for a terrorist attack on a Berlin Discoteque. Let's just say it put us in a very interesting frame of mind.

***

*Note that Bratton has no indication of where the Japanese will attack, only the approximate time.

__________________
"Transport of the mails, transport of the human voice, transport of flickering pictures - in this century, as in others, our highest accomplishments still have the single aim of bringing men together." St. Exupery

It's an interesting exercise in alternative history to contemplate what might have happened if the Americans had figured out the Japanese plan and were ready for the attack.

And no, I'm not talking about that ridiculous "Final Countdown" movie!

Personally, I'm not sure that things would have gone too differently, unless the Japanese realized the Americans knew and canceled the attack entirely. Then it gets pretty interesting -- a late American entry into WWII (or no entry at all) could have made for a very different world.

__________________
Relight the Firefly!

"It is quite clear that Occam's razor does not sharpen in your pyramid." (Nicolas)

"Still, a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest." (Paul Simon)

Remember, however, that the attack on Pearl Harbor was just one of several operations planned to begin in early December. Attacks on the Phillipines, Singapore and Indonesia were already in motion. After a certain point, the strike force would have fought its way in if necessary. Also, simply finding a large, Japanese force that close to Hawaii was close to being causus belli especially when combined with the 14 part message breaking off negotiations.

The interesting question is what would have happened if Japan had invaded Indonesia and British possessions and left the Phillipines and Hawaii alone. The whole reason for attacking Pearl Harbor was to allow them to take the Phillipines with impunity and avoid having the US cut their supply from the south. They assumed we would declare war once they went after Indonesia, regardless of whether or not they attacked us directly. With hindsight, I'm not sure that would have been true. Tensions would have ratcheted up another notch or five, but it still would have been hard to get a declaration of war out of Congress without a direct attack on US possessions.

And of course, this still leaves out Germany. We certainly had a reason for declaring war on them in October when a U-boat sank the Reuben James. Even with the outcry that provoked, the support wasn't there.

__________________
"I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind." - William Thompson, 1st Baron Lord Kelvin

"If it was so, it might be, and if it were so, it would be, but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic!" - Tweedledee

This isn't right. This isn't even wrong. - Wolfgang Pauli

Hey, "The Final Countdown" was cool!

__________________
This is no fantasy. No careless product of wild imagination. - Jor-El

Godspeed, John Glenn. - Scott Carpenter

And these atomic bombs that science burst upon the world that night were strange even to the men that used them.
- H.G Wells, The World Set Free

To the conspiracy crowd, radiation is a big Boogey Man that inspires terror and death in all who encounter it. - JayUtah

Hey, "The Final Countdown" was cool!

I felt that The Final Countdown would have been much better if the Americans had wiped out the Japanese strike force, but then the Nimitz's name had changed to the USS Adolf Hitler, the flags and other insignia had changed to hybrid American-Nazi, etc., due to the butterfly effect. However, this would have been a decidedly unhappy ending, plus the point would likely have been lost on the great majority of viewers, so such a script change probably would have been killed by the studio.

__________________
--Doug

"When your statics problem becomes a dynamics problem, you're in trouble." --me

Moor's Law: "As you go from freshman engineering to Ph.D., the amount of work required per credit hour doubles approximately every 18 months." --me, inspired by Prof. Scott Moor

It's an interesting exercise in alternative history to contemplate what might have happened if the Americans had figured out the Japanese plan and were ready for the attack.

A couple of years ago, I was working on an outline for a series of novels based on the idea that through good luck and skillful intelligence work, the US was able to piece together the Japanese plan and ambush the strike force. Sadly, I've had to shelve this and a couple of other projects since I've gone back to school full-time in mechanical engineering.

Personally, I'm not sure that things would have gone too differently . . .

I think they could have, especially with about two months' warning for the Americans.

Basic plan: US transfers one additional fighter group, one medium-bomber group, and one Marine air wing to Hawaii, and rushes to complete the islands' radar systems and air-defense network. Four fleet carriers and a large number of submarines are then positioned to ambush the Japanese north of Hawaii. Japanese air attack is badly mauled by US air defenses, and Japanese carriers are damaged by US carrier strikes, plus some land-based air defenses. Japanese launch weak second strike against US carriers, but do little damage. US second carrier strike further damages Japanese, and remaining crippled Japanese capital ships are finished off by submarines and land-based air.

. . . unless the Japanese realized the Americans knew and canceled the attack entirely. Then it gets pretty interesting -- a late American entry into WWII (or no entry at all) could have made for a very different world.

As Eta C has pointed out, the Japanese would still have attacked other American possessions. Further, as I've discussed previously in this thread, the US was not ready to enter the war--in fact, FDR's military advisors were begging him to stall as long as possible, to give them more time to prepare. Further, the US was already doing everything that could be done to help Britain stay in the war (escorting convoys, using American supply ships, and shooting at U-boats), so there would have been little to have been lost, and much that could have been gained, by delaying US entry by six months or so.

__________________
--Doug

"When your statics problem becomes a dynamics problem, you're in trouble." --me

Moor's Law: "As you go from freshman engineering to Ph.D., the amount of work required per credit hour doubles approximately every 18 months." --me, inspired by Prof. Scott Moor

An important point that is often over looked is that Pearl Harbor got us in a war against the "wrong" enemy. Roosevelt wanted to fight Germany, and Japan was a distraction. That's why he went to such length to negotiate with them. Pearl Harbor inflamed the public's attention in the wrong direction. Three days after Pearl Harbor, Germany declared war on the United States. Under the terms of the Tripartite Pact, Germany was not obligated to do this: The pact only covered mutual defense, not attacks by an Axis nation. Adding to a very long list of his miscalculations, Hitler essentially got FDR off the hook in terms of joining the European conflict. Still, when Churchill and Roosevelt announced a "Germany first" strategy for prosecuting the war, a lot of people in the US weren't happy about it.

__________________
"Transport of the mails, transport of the human voice, transport of flickering pictures - in this century, as in others, our highest accomplishments still have the single aim of bringing men together." St. Exupery