I'm sorry, but I did just a small amount of research and found the sheer multitude and consistency of UFO reports extremely compelling. I could probably write a mathematical proof that something extremely strange must be going on to produce such a body of work. Even if it's a hoax, the implications are STILL mind-boggling!

I assert my opinion that UFOs are still of scientific import, and challenge anyone who disagrees to a duel!

I accept but you're going to have to arm yourself first

This may have been a bad idea...

But I will do my best.

You came out shooting but you forgot the ammunition.

A broad 'general feeling' does not an argument make....

Maybe if you argued something a little more specific first.

Pistols or swords?

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Well, the best way to find out is to go there and, find out. - Raven's Cry
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The sheer multitude and consistency of the UFO sightings that have been discredited should count for something, right?

Then let me begin by making a few more definite assertions:

First, I make no assumptions or assertions at this time concerning the existence of extraterrestrials on planet Earth or of government/meta-government conspiracies concerning UFOs. I believe a place must be made for such considerations in a strict, scientific analysis of the UFO phenomenon and I certainly understand how such things suggest themselves, but at the time being I argue only the following:

-Given all the objects or optical phenomena observed in the sky, there is included a class of objects who's appearance the scientific community has utterly failed to plausibly explain.

The primary evidence is in the reports of such sightings, and I suggest anyone who actually wants to "get to the bottom of the UFO thing" begin with reading about the most famous reports of such incidents, and treat your investigation as an attempt to explain such reports.

Within the body of credible reports of UFO sightings, the following are true:
-They come from everywhere. They have been reported all over the world.
-Many reports come from highly credible sources, such as commercial airline pilots, police, high-ranking military officials, congressmen, former presidents, many leaders of foreign nations, etc.
-Many reports are of multiple-witness sightings. In a significant number of these reports, all statements by the individual witnesses are highly consistent. Indeed, there are numerous reports by multiple highly-credible witnesses. Multiple jet fighter pilots, multiple military officials, multiple police officers from districts miles apart, etc.
-There are several known "mass sightings". That is, large portions of entire city populations observing the exact same thing in the sky. This has happened more than just a handful of times.
-Many sightings include identification and tracking of objects on RADAR, infrared cameras, or other sensory systems.
-Upon examination of the total body of reports, several clear patterns and correlations become readily apparent. These include multiple sightings of objects with the same general description of both form and behavior.

I believe that, given the accuracy of the above statements, even of most of the above statements, the likelyhood that the phenomenon is simply an unfortunate combination of hoaxes and misinterpretations of normal things is extremely low.

There are, of course, many more details, but I think I'll leave it at that for now.

Certainly. But that is a different statistic from the number that have utterly defied explanation.

I say that if there existed but one such case, it would be cause for further examination.

Let's examine that one case then!

Do you have a link?

Many very intelligent people have seem mathematical equations which they could not explain. Often, entire roomfuls of credible witnesses will see an equation that they will all describe similarly, and yet none has ever seen anything like it.
This does not mean that the equations in question are unexplainable by those with a little more knowledge of the subject, or the ability to see the equation from a different perspective.

Here is but one. A fairly thoroughly-investigated and fairly recent event over Chicago O'Hare airport. Provided in bite-sized NPR format.

Believe me there are many more. But for now, please explain this to me:

Click on Listen Now.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=6707250

12 people saw something.

Hardly a case for Extra Terrestrials or anything "strange." There's no description of Height, Width, Depth (size), altitude or location.

It could easily be a cloud of smoke with airborne particulates in it blown into a circle.

This does sound like the standard UFOlogist "maths without numbers" argument - "Well sure, we can discount an unknown number of hoaxes and an unknown number of misidentifications of aircraft and natural phenomena, but that still leaves an unknown number of sightings which are something else." This quickly translates to, "If there are that many sightings, surely some of them must be of extraterrestrial origin?"

To which of course the answer is a simple "No."

The corollary argument exists against their existence. Bigelow has posited that "...some 100 million Earthlings have been abducted by aliens."

Why is it that not one of those people has come back with so much as an ashtray or rest room towel? Even a few micro grams from a UFO could be subjected to mass spectroscopy, and the isotopic signature would be proof of extraterrestrial origin. There IS something strange going on here. People are not telling the truth.

I am not sure what they saw. Do you? After being "thoroughly-investigated", what was the answer - "UNKNOWN". There is no real data, no photographs, no evidence of anything other than what the people supposedly saw. If this is the BEST case that can be presented to demonstrate UFO reports require "Scientific investigation" then it is sorely lacking.

UFO groups have been "investigating" UFO reports for 50+ years now and what have they produced? Nothing. Just a bunch of reports of "unexplained" events that rely mainly on reports by eyewitnesses who may or may not accurately report what they saw. I think many scientists are not interested in chasing phantoms and would rather spend their funds on more interesting aspects such as the real universe we live in that can be studied scientifically. You might as well ask them to look for elves, fairies, bigfoot, the loch ness monster, etc.

If UFOs represented actual high technology craft unknown to science, you would think somebody, somewhere, would gather some more interesting information/factual data than just anecdotal stories with claims that can not be verified. Isn't it interesting that birders can identify rare species of birds by gather factual information or amateur astronomers can monitor the skies for unusual events but UFO groups can not do the same? It says a lot about these UFO reports, which by most analysis are full of errors (90-95% are usually found to be errors of observation/perception!).

If you want to provide a case that has some facts to be analyzed or data that can quantified, then it could be worth examining. Unfortunately, the case being presented has very little of that.

Would your equation take into account the number of UFO "sightings" that are just copies of each other?

Part of the problem with these stories is that people see something they don't immediately recognize. Then the hear things or read about "UFO"'s, and their mental picture of the event changes to match what they think they saw. It's the same reason you want to interview witnesses as soon as you can, before they can talk to anyone else.

Suddenly that bright white light becomes cigar shaped. It zooms off to the west a little quicker. It becomes much farther away, and hence much larger. You remember an odd sensation...the hairs on the back of your neck were standing up. Etc. etc.

* * *

The number and supposed consistency of UFO reports is not evidence of alien craft. Do some research into stories/tales of dragons throughout various cultures...there's "consistency" there as well. I still don't think knights rode across the land slaying fire-breathing lizards.

* * *

Lastly, don't confuse "unexplained" with "unexplainable". UFO enthusiasts love to point at Project Blue Book, and other "official" investigations which were labeled "unexplained". But most UFO reports leave nothing to investigate other than witness testimony, which is undependable to begin with. You interview some people, you check for known weather phenomenon, flight/radar records...nothing matches, there's little more you can do.

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I'm like one of those idiot savants...well, except for the savant part.

"A long time ago, yet somehow in the future"

The sheer number of cases of medical hypochondria wuld supply a sound statistical basis that something is going on. Unfortunately it would only prove the widespread nature of hypochondria, not the validity of some supposed underlying phenomenon.

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Clavius Moon Base

I read a thorough report on the O'Hare sighting; one thing I noticed was that the witnesses could not agree on the size, one saying it was the size of a bird while another estimating it at eighty feet in diameter. The witnesses gave a number of different times for the sighting too. All this is to be expected, as people are often unreliable witnesses. The O'Hare incident gives little concrete information about the presumed phenomenon, unfortunately.

And I suspect that will continue to be the case. Witnesses will report aerial phenomena for the foreseeable future, and we will never know the truth.

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Hmmm.
Does your cellular phone have a build in camera? Mine has. 3.2MPixel. And a flash. Most of the cellular phones do have one. Almost anybody has one in is pocket. Have you ever seen a picture taken with such a camera that shows an alien or his craft? No? How comes?

There are thousands and thousands of surveillance cameras out there.M
Many even with night vision.
Have you ever heard that one of these took a picture of an alien or his craft?
No? How comes?

There are thousands of amateur and professional astronomers out there each night looking into the skies. Mist of them equipped with cameras.
Have you ever seen a picture taken my them that shows an alien or his craft? No? How comes?

Besides. Those alien come here traveling billions of kilometers (if not even more) and all they have to do is hover a little here, scream across the sky a little there and show themselves to some redneck fool now and then.
If you ask me, thats an awful lot of wasted energy for doing nothing productive.

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"Who does not know anything, must believe everything."
Baroness Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach 1830-1916

Is anybody going to say, "Ah, but their motives might be very different to a human's motives!"

I hope not...