Good to know... I am going to try and delve deeper and do more research, but I've found the internet to not be a very good source of reliable information (outside of these forums of course, where we actually have a chance to interact with one another), so, I would guess that good old fashioned research, i.e, going to a library to actually READ would probably be a better idea. The more recent Stephensville, TX incident comes to mind, in which case a reporter lost her job after writing that a witness was being harassed by a military officer working at the nearby base. I wont bother posting any more wiki links since I cant ascertain their reliability one way or another, but I did find it useful when I looked up "the disclosure project," which was hyperlinked on another article, that it does include a few prominent scientists, as does the info under the article for the "extraterrestrial hypothesis" or "ETH," but, according to the various polls, its a very small minority in the scientific community that believe in the UFO phenomenon; I think its something like 3-4%, even though that constituency contains some prominent members.


Reading through the different cases of UFO phenomenon (what limited reading I have done), makes it obvious to me that at least 95% of it is the result of confusion, misidentification or outright hoax. But bothers me is the other 5% which I cant find an explanation for... but of course, there's always the possibility that some natural phenomenon is at work that we havent identified. Another thing that bothers me is how much of this is classified information, the reluctance of the government to release it, and when they do release it under the freedom of information act, large parts of the documentation seemed to be blacked out. I've also heard (via TV news, some internet news) that the french government has publicly released its ufo files as the brazilian and argentinian government have done, and although I havent personally read what its in those files (Im sure they can be located online), others who have say that those governments are inclined to believe in the existence of ufo phenomenon as ETH. I wonder why the US Government and the British Ministry of Defense (MoD) have not been completely forthright and still hold back much classified information and what they do release, as stated above, has large quantities of blacked out data. It could be that there are sensitive military projects at stake here, but until we have more forthrightedness from our own government, at least to the level the French and Argentinians have done... we are always going to have a level of uncertainty.


BTW, the same polls I have quoted above state that about 85% of the American public believe that their government is lying to them about what UFOs are. Thats not saying they believe the ETH explanation, just that their own government is hiding something. And with how the US Govt has flipflopped so many times about Roswell, the Zamora incident, and had denied the very existence of Area 51 for decades... not to mention more "mundane" projects, like Echelon, DARPA and even the wiretapping scandal of the Bush Administration-- can anyone blame them for having mistrust in their own government? I'd like to think of myself as a logical, intelligent and (hopefully) unbiased person, but I do believe that no matter how good intentions are-- power corrupts. And I think, over the last 60 years (maybe longer) we've seen that, in the name of national security or military advantage, or whatever they want to say are, to some extent at least, just excuses to let power remain unchecked at certain levels of our government that we dont directly elect (and some that we do that chose to hide their improper behavior.) Whether the ETH phenomenon is real or not, the fact is that our government has lied to us in the past and continues to lie to us on a whole range of issues... whether its for national security or its just an excuse for improper behavior, how are we to know? I remember how a group of librarians in NH were harassed by the FBI a couple of years ago and wouldnt given in when their agents were demanding personal information on their patrons, what kind of books they read, etc. I just have the unsettling feeling that in the desire to make democracy more secure, we are actually destroying that which we cherish most... and we are letting them do it. It may not seem like this has anything to do with the veracity of the ETH phenomenon, but it does, because the government's lack of honesty is what's central to this whole issue.

Hey there Veeger. Being a recovering partial "woo" I occasionally like to inquire upon the skeptic opinion. With all due respect I am just curious as to what "no difinitive evidence" means to you. Also, why is UFO belief akin to religion? I assure you this is not a veiled challenge of any sort. I really want to know how your opinion was formed. tnx--joe

Hey Joe,
I should be more specific and qualify my former remarks by saying, by UFO, I am referring to Extraterrestial technology used to visit the earth.

In my opinion, there is no evidence because there is no evidence. That's not being flippant. It means, just because we can not explain a particular incident or sighting, it does not mean the default explanation is extraterrestial. But this is what many attempt to ascribe as the only valid alternative. In my opinion, whether such intelligent life in the universe exists or not is immaterial. The odds of anyone finding us and visiting us are, well, astronomical. Occam's razor requires a simpler solution. So in my opinion it is better to say, what we have seen or collected in the way of evidence is either incomplete or faulty or we are witnessing a phenomenon we have not yet been able to explain with our current scientific understanding, but I think it is incorrect to leap to a conclusion as if all other possibilities are excluded.

As for the similarities between UFOlogy and religion, if one believes in something without measurable evidence, it must be taken on faith. But the curious thing about many UFOlogists is how fervently they cling to their paradigms inspite contrary evidence. It reminds me of a form of religious fanaticism. It is only an observation and opinion and not meant to be an insult to those so inclined.



-V

I would define "definitive" evidence as that which can be answered by one conclusion only and represents the essence of the proposal. "I saw a light in the sky," is an observation that can have many interpretations and causes. Therefore it cannot be considered definitive evidence for any one of them. The scientific method endeavors to construct empirical experiences that reveal definitive evidence -- usually better than evidence in previous studies, which was once defensibly believed to be definitive, but turned out not to be.

__________________
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams
Clavius Moon Base

I understand where you are coming from. We know there are many types of UFO's observed by many competent people. However, I agree there is no evicence to indicate beyond wild speculation that they are of extraterrestrial origin. Your qualifier makes things clearer now. Your opinion about religion is clearer to me now also. I sort of thought that is what you meant all along but wanted to make sure. Thanks Veeger--joe

You were doing so well until you stated these things. One of the biggest myths about Roswell is that the AF keeps changing their story. This is not true but UFO groups want everyone to believe it. You have just joined the club of many people who have fallen for this line. I will, once again, recount this myth.

1. The Roswell AF base originally stated they had found the remains of a crashed disc. Not a spaceship, not a ufo, not an unknown aircraft but a crashed disc. If you look at what a flying disc was being reported as in July 1947, you will discover that it had to be shiny so people can see it when it was airborne and that it was in the sky. During the first half of July, many people reported finding crashed discs. Many of them turned out to be......

2. The "crashed disc" was sent to Wright field via HQ at Fort Worth. There, the commanding general took one look at it and saw it for what it was. A radar reflector and weather balloon materials. He verified this by calling in a weather officer to identify the materials. Photographs were taken, the debris disposed of and the story died away. In July 1947, the only thing that had "flip-flopped" was the fact that RAAF had misidentified what the debris was. Considering the fact they did not posess such reflectors on their base and they were somewhat new to the military inventory (as was radar), it is not unexpected for this to have happened.

3. Thanks to UFO groups congress brought pressure onto the USAF to investigate the matter in the early 1990s. As a result, the actual source of the weather balloons and reflectors was identified as coming from project MOGUL. They did not change the story, they just clarified where the materials came from.

4. In 1997, the USAF issued a second report in response to further complaints by UFO groups claiming that they did not address the reports of alien bodies in the 1994 report. The 1997 report is an addendum that only talks about the alien body side of the legend. It did not change any findings from the 1994 report. All they did was say a lot of the stories sounded like recovery operations that had occured in the area in the 1950s involving parachute testing at high altitudes. They could have called some of the individuals liars (which it turns out some of them were - i.e. Anderson and Dennis) but they gave them an "out" by saying they confused the events.

I am not sure what flip-flopping has been done by the government on the Zamora case. They could not identify the source and that is where it has stood as far as the USAF is concerned.

Area 51 is what it is because of legal reasons and security. It is not because of secret alien bases. However, I can see why people don't trust the government because of the base's checkered past.

You are always so helpful Jay--thank you--joe

To be perfectly honest, I have heard so many claims and counter-claims about Area 51 I really don't know what to believe. I think secret technology (both domestic and foreign) may have been tested there but I think at some point it became a diversion for the same operations being conducted elsewhere.

The government conspiracy thing is bothersome to me. It seems there was a general decline in trust for the government as an aftermath of the Kennedy assassination and subsequent conspiracy theories. The trust level has slowly eroded ever since.
In my opinion, it is very difficult, perhaps impossible to sustain a conspiracy for very long. In addition, the level of clever resourcefulness required to perpretrate an elaborate conspiracy requires organizational and logistical skills I have never seen at any level of government. I tend to be very skeptical of government conspiracy claims.

Especially with all the problems with attempts at keeping secrets in the past. If Nixon can be forced to resign and Clinton impeached, it says a lot for how long secrets can be kept in D.C. It just is not possible to keep a secret very long because someone is always going to let the cat out of the bag.

I agree. In the examples you cite, once the cat is out of the bag, corroborating evidence is quickly found and the "secret" soon unravels. However, when a guy like Bob Lazar suddenly emerges and makes claims about Area 51 citing government coverup and no corroborating evidence is found to back up the conspiracy claims or the alien technology claims, the skeptic radar begins beeping.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Lazar

Or further, as more information is uncovered the less credible the story becomes. Then the story becomes a litany of excuses for why the facts and the story seem so far apart: "Oh, the gubmint must have erased all the evidence."

That's essentially the difference between a conspiracy and a conspiracy theory. A true conspiracy doesn't require extensive modification or extension to accommodate the facts uncovered in investigation.

__________________
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams
Clavius Moon Base

Hmmm..maybe we should call it "Jay's razor".

Keep it away from the wig.

It has special powers.

__________________
"Hope is not the conviction that something will turn out well but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out." -- Vaclav Havel

Quote:

We just don't know much.

Yet if not for those words, what would science be for? - KaiYeves

I propose an ATM corollary to Godwin's law: an ATM'er will inevitably compare himself to Copernicus (Or Galileo), when the going gets tough. - CodeSlinger

The weather balloon idea is the accepted reason for what was seen; however about 2 years ago I saw a special (I think it was on the scifi channel with Bryant Gumbel-- not sure of their veracity) where documents were released (with sensitive parts blacked out of course) indicating that it was some military black project. Its curious that so many of these incidents are in the SW--where many of our AFB are located.

Concerning the Zamora incident, I've heard a defense analyst lay out an interesting hypothesis: that it was an experimental military aircraft and the two men the police officer saw were actually the pilot and copilot of the craft-- a retired military officer actually told him that such an experimental craft had been launched that day from a nearby base. All of this is, of course, much more plausible than the ETH. This was on the history channel, a bit more believable than their "UFO Hunter" shows.

I do find it interesting that quite a few of the people on "the disclosure project" are retired astronauts or military personnel.

Concerning Area 51: they have good reason to keep it secret for legal reasons: I've heard theyve been dumping hazardous waste there (Clinton passed a law exempting them from EPA regulations), as well as the black projects they are supposedly conducting there. The defense analyst who I spoke of earlier indicated that he had evidence that the Aurora Project was very much alive, and used a satellite image for evidence: you could see a jet streak originating in the region and make its way due east (almost in a straight line!) to Europe at speeds of around Mach 6. Although I've also heard that Area 51/ Groom Lake is being phased out (too much attention perhaps) and operations are being moved to a different AFB in Nevada.

I think "government dishonesty" is much more plausible than a far-ranging conspiracy in many cases... as someone said before, if you have to keep tweaking the conspiracy "theory" to fit the evidence, you're likely getting farther and farther from the truth.

The Gumball stories on Sci-Fi are pretty awful. The blacked out documents you refer to are the NSA documents (at least that is what I recall) that Stanton Friedman throws about like so much candy. Unfortunately, nobody ever reveals that these documents were released by Phil Klass some time ago. You can read about it here:

http://www.space.com/sciencefiction/...sa_000113.html

Actually, the distribution is fairly even. Early in 1947, there were lots of reports from the SW and NW because that was where the UFO flap started with Arnold. Military bases/pilots/observers started looking for the elusive discs that Arnold saw and saw all sorts of things but none turned out to be the discs described by Arnold.

Just curious about what leads you to believe that its highly unlikely we will ever be contacted. I think of it this way: let's just consider our Galaxy. It contains 200 billion or so stars. Even if we just narrow it down to Sol-like stars ( let's say spectral classification G0-K5 to give a typical range, main sequence) of the proper age and development, we should have millions upon millions of planerary systems that have some kind of life. If we make the assumption that life on our planet developed at an ordinary rate (reasonable, in the absence of evidence otherwise), than the Galaxy should be teeming with in