Fine analogy, Jay, and I agree, which is why I admit speculation and guesswork.
Although, I'm not considering a single "best" model for certain observations.
I'm looking at all perturber hypotheses.
What do you make of Hill's Los Alamos computer models which showed a low mass brown dwarf (sub- brown dwarf?) capable of passing 5AU without disturbing the planets?

But the assumption that brown dwarfs will have their own satellites is not unreasonable; this could account for the varying masses given by researchers, as well as the differing effects the alleged perturber has on our system.

Curious to me is that most observed star systems are binary or better and more often than not with elliptical orbits. I don't know how long they are stable as such or whether their planets might also orbit in ellipses, but our system is quite circular. Why, I wonder?
I would guess that if our system is binary, there might be some resonance between the suns and their satellites which has stabilized into what we have. We do after all find resonances in various outer system bodies.
I'm also curious as to why such a scenario hasn't been explored more.
Then again, my curiosity could just be ignorance of certain celestial mechanics.

Whatever the case, to me it seems we await some big outer system discoveries.

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

I'm looking at all perturber hypotheses.

Fair enough. You have to simply keep in mind that specific hypotheses can't simply be rewritten to accommodate other scenarios without doing irrepairable violence to them.

What do you make of Hill's Los Alamos computer models which showed a low mass brown dwarf (sub- brown dwarf?) capable of passing 5AU without disturbing the planets?

Having one's cake and eating it too. If you lower the mass of the intruder to the point where no detectable effect occurs from its passage through the solar system, then it rather loses all its "destroyer" capability except through direct collision.

But the assumption that brown dwarfs will have their own satellites is not unreasonable...

I'm not saying it isn't reasonable. I'm saying I don't see how it fits the data.

...but our system is quite circular. Why, I wonder?

Long-term stability relatively free from significant perturbation.

Whatever the case, to me it seems we await some big outer system discoveries.

I certainly hope so, because today's astronomers deserve to make significant discoveries just as their predecessors did. But the hope held out for a clearer picture of our solar system isn't the same as doomsaying. The problem is that every tidbit of information suggesting we don't yet have a complete understanding of the solar system gets co-opted ignorantly as proof (somehow) that all the doomsaying is justified. Just because you discover you left the door unlocked when you went to work in the morning isn't proof that the Canadian mafia has moved in and set up a drug lab in your rumpus room.

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"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams
Clavius Moon Base

Canadians have a mafia? Do they get kickbacks on donuts? Okay don't raz me I love Canada its just a funny mental image.

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---"Why do things have to suck so bad?" a friend once asked me.
"Because space is a vacuum and that's a lot of suck." I replied.
(Actual quote)---

At least you admit you're guessing, but your guesses still fall foul of physics. I don't see them accounting for anything, to be perfectly frank.

Could there be a distant brown dwarf companion to the Sun? Possibly.

Could there be an object in the Kuiper belt perturbing the movements of other object in the belt? Possibly.

Could the two be linked? Possibly.

Could this be passing the inner solar system without being noticed and without leaving long-term perturbations in its wake? Highly unlikely.

Could a brown dwarf be heading for a meeting with Earth in 2012? Not a chance.

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"The very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common: They don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views." The Doctor, Doctor Who: The Face of Evil.

Ever see News Radio?

One of the most hilarious episodes is where they find out the boss is Canadian and has been keeping it a secret his whole life.

His girlfriend asks him why, and he said that he was afraid the other kids would think they were spies.

She laughs hysterically and he says:

"Oh, come on, I was 5! I wasn't exactly aware of the intricacies of international espionage."

Having one's cake and eating it too.

[Gillianren] "Wouldst thou both eat thy cake and have it?"
- George Herbert [/Gillianren]

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"Slapping a guy on the head is just as funny now as it was eighty years ago."

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Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by ignorance or stupidity.
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Fair enough.
But I don't want to rewrite any specific just consider how they might all fit together as is.

Well, if the intruder passes between 3-5AU there's nothing much left to destroy; all that remains is the asteroid belt. Of course, it would likely nudge some earthward and retain some of its "destroyer" aspects.



IMO, the rest of my statement you quote here is one way it might fit the data.

And yet so much collisional theory for our solar system, inner and outer.



Likewise I hope modern astronomers make big discoveries, but this analogy didn't work so well for me. My home is always unlocked. We live in a most safe community, and I have guns. Come to think of it, most folk around here do. I wonder if there's a correlation...



As for the doomsaying: no thanks.

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

Actually, no, that's extremely unlikely. Though the asteroid belt is relatively dense with asteroids, there are still hundreds of thousands - millions of kilometers between each one of them. The odds of hitting one in a random orbit are ridiculously close to zero. You'd actually have to aim for a collision, which is pretty hard to do with a planet (technologically indistinguishable from magic).

I never said, nor do I think, a brown dwarf will approach earth in 2012. That's the CT misinfo doomsayer aspects; not my cup o tea.

At least we agree on 3 or 4 of your other points.

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

OK, so there's nothing much left to destroy and does indeed loses its "destroyer" capabilities.

But I thought most near earth asteroids are considered to be main belt asteroids knocked out by collisions and gravity?

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

I understand why but it is rather difficult not to when someone comes along talking "Nibiru."

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

I just realized I stated .08 Jupiter mass for the orbital modeller when in actuality it is solar mass.

.08 Solar mass is the expected upper limited for a brown dwarf.

An object .08 solar mass inclined 30deg average or fast passage at 4AU only slightly affects Mars...

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

Okay don't raz me I love Canada its just a funny mental image.

Hence why I use it.

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"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams
Clavius Moon Base

Yes, but the outer planets go rock and roll.

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"Who does not know anything, must believe everything."
Baroness Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach 1830-1916
our animal welfare board and organisation

Yeah, I notice just now that Jupiter stays put while Saturn and Uranus seem to widen their circular orbits, but Neptune and Pluto trade places.

More like soft jazz than rock n roll to me.

I'd like to be able to view more than just this one passage of the rogue star as well as a view of the entire solar system.

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

Take as starting date 2012 and Neptune goes bye bye...

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"Who does not know anything, must believe everything."
Baroness Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach 1830-1916
our animal welfare board and organisation

Well, that's a curiosity in itself...

but it didn't cross my mind to use such a date.

I varied throughout the 1900s.


Of course, none of this is definitive in any way but it helps to show that it isn't "impossible" as some might say, or that maybe the planets wouldn't be so perturbed by a rogue star or brown dwarf.
Too bad the modeller doesn't allow for lower mass objects like brown dwarfs though.

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"Where the telescope ends, the microscope begins. Which of the two has the greater view?" - Hugo

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened." - Churchill

Well, I had no luck in finding settings that would not mess up at least the orbits of the outer planets...

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"Who does not know anything, must believe everything."
Baroness Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach 1830-1916
our animal welfare board and organisation

Uh, no. We don't need to wait and see that the computer model argument was not relevant to the OP question.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

The reason you cant see it ,unless you are in Australia or Antartica is cos its in the southern hemisphere,but have no fear it is on the way and you will see it in 2012.

Hi adam356, welcome to BAUT. You should read the rules and FAQs for this forum, particularly regarding this section.

If what you say is true, why haven't any of the numerous observatories in Australia or in South America reported this object?

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At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

One Earth, One Sky - IYA 2009
All moderation in purple

But then shouldn't we fear? Unless you have already resigned yourself to your fate? If so, please consider following the example of the Heaven's Gate cult when Hale-Bopp came past.

I'm not suggesting that you castrate yourself and then commit ritual suicide, I'm just throwing it out there.

Some of the best astrophotographers on this site are in Australia. The southern hemisphere has thousands of eyes searching the sky every night. Guess none of them can see it either. How do you know where it is? Are you in the southern hemisphere? Have you seen it? Are you looking at it right now?

adam356, we have a number of folks from Australia on this board, and since you obviously have the information on this, you should be able to tell them where to look. Please do so. By the way, why is it only visible from Australia or Antartica? Why not New Zealand, or South America, or Africa?

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

LOL.

Wow... just.. wow.

Much respect for the unexpected castration and ritual mass suicide reference.

I drank the Kool-Aid BTW. But they forgot to lace mine...

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They didn't forget to lace mine.


I'm just That Tough...