http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/08/sc...tier.html?_r=1 This article about Cook, Peary and the North Pole touches on how people find ways to support what they want to believe, in the face of evidence to the contrary. Warning No. 1: skip the politics in paragraphs 12-16. Warning No. 2: Even scientists can be guilty of this.

Interesting that you want those paragraphs skipped. To me, they read as evidence for the validity of the premise. It's a premise that goes a long way to explaining the tenacity of conspiracy theorists.

You don't understand why a discussion of politics (which is what I assume he was trying to avoid) would be "frowned" upon here?

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"The facts gentlemen, and nothing but the facts, for careful eyes are narrowly watching." Isaac Asimov

In this context, no. It was part of the study. But if the moderators tell me I'm wrong, then I'm wrong.

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Brett
Peters Creek, Alaska
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Ooh. Forbidden fruit. I will then chime in by mentioning this.

Tiptoeing through a mine field here, I'd like to direct you to the link in the Times article "as the researchers report", even though it's right in the middle of the paragraph about Saddam and Bush. The authors talk about "motivational reasoning", which is related to cognitive dissonance. That's what I'd like to talk about, as it seems to describe pretty well the mind set of people who really want to believe in flying saucers or to disbelieve in the Apollo moon missions.

Okay, here's the bit that gets me. (It's from the middle of those political paragraphs, but it is not itself political.) " . . . Some flatly said they were entitled to counterfactual opinions." See, we get that here sometimes. I hear it about all sorts of things. "Well, everyone's entitled to their own opinion."

This actually is true. You are. You can believe that your taste in books or movies or music is better and that other people's are worse. You can have your own opinion about sports teams, politics, and what climate you like best. You are completely entitled to a favourite colour. We learn this very young. I learned it in school; I suspect many of you did as well. But, as has been said, you are not entitled to your own facts. What I think some people don't get is that some things are not opinions. You don't get to decide for yourself whether or not the sky is blue or the Earth is round(ish) or evolution is real. You just don't get to, and a lot of people believe that you do.

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

I agree with Gillian. Opinions are, well opinions. Everyone has one. Facts are facts. They are the same for everybody. That's what makes them facts. The end.

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I'm like one of those idiot savants...well, except for the savant part.
"In order to increase awareness of the homeless, security have been given binoculars."

You're the boss. No worries; subject dropped by me.

Unfortunately, many people do think you get to decide such things. I don't recall an ATM about sky color, but we certainly have had people argue the Earth isn't round. But when someone starts off with the proposition that the sky is really purple, and states this as a fact, it is hard to go much further with the discussion (as evidenced by a number of the ATM threads).

The more tricky area is with things that are less obviously facts, not things like the color of the sky, but things like the background radiation left over from the big bang (to just grab a random one) - things that are a little more tricky for the average person on the street to go measure.

And then of course is the whole range of differences among hypothesis, theory, fact, law, data, etc., something which I think extremely few average people even understand that there are differences, let alone what they are.

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At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

One Earth, One Sky - IYA 2009
All moderation in purple

Yes, but this brings up the point that if you do not know a fact, you cannot simply substitute in your opinion.

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I'm like one of those idiot savants...well, except for the savant part.
"In order to increase awareness of the homeless, security have been given binoculars."

I guess that depends on the meaning of "cannot". People seem to do it all the time. I agree with "should not", but obviously they can and do.

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At night the stars put on a show for free (Carole King)

One Earth, One Sky - IYA 2009
All moderation in purple

Touché.

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I'm like one of those idiot savants...well, except for the savant part.
"In order to increase awareness of the homeless, security have been given binoculars."

Very well put, if I may say so. The problem is that facts are not always so undisputable. There is sufficient evidence to say categorically that the Earth is roundish(ish), this is an undisputable fact. Even so, it was a long time after the first artificial satellites were in orbit that the UK Flat Earth Society was disbanded due to lack of support.

The problem is when you get to statistical correlations, or the lack of them, because most people have very little understanding of statistics or probabilities. I have always been surrounded by people who believe there is something valid in astrology. No manner of argument about correlations will convince such believers if they want to believe, because somehow, a statistical correlation does not seem to them to be a hard fact. Very frustrating.

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γνῶθι σεαυτόν

Well, since correlation does not equal causation I would argur that this is a valid and cautious argument - however in the context of your acquaintances who believe in astrology I'm inclined to believe that they are probably not arguing that point

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Si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses.

"Half of what I say is meaningless, but I say it so that the other half may reach you."

Correlation does not imply causation. However a lack of correlation quite strenuously proves a lack of causation.

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"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams
Clavius Moon Base

Netflix suggested to me today that I would like to watch a certain internet-origined "documentary," because they really do need to fix their recommendation system, and I was skimming its reviews. (It's rated awfully high--higher even than a theatrically-released "documentary" Netflix actually had my opinion of correct.) One person, in their review, said that the problem with its presenting the "official story" was that, by describing it, they made it sound too plausible.

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

^^

Kind of reminds of that recent Onion article quoting Armstrong. Make it sound plausible enough and some people will believe it.

How did Lincoln put it again? Fool all some of the time, fool some all of the time.

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One of the smallest creatures on the planet is the ant. Yet they and thier ilk make up some 1/3 of the ENTIRE biosphere of this planet. Tell me again how a small detail is insignificant?