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  #121 (permalink)  
Old 26-October-2009, 06:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
By my definitions, yes
Then I don't accept you as an authority or expert on what constitutes proper scientific practice. Since that personal opinion was the basis of your diatribe against mainstream science, do you have any other line of reasoning to support your conclusion? Or shall we just appropriately reject it as uninformed?
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  #122 (permalink)  
Old 26-October-2009, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Jerry
There should be nothing wrong with reporting an experiment did not work; but it is wrong to report data that is 'as expected' when the fidelity is much less-than-expected.
No where have I read that the experiment did not work. It just wasn't filled with as much gusto as anticipated. They still said they got the information they needed, and it would take some time to sort through it.
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  #123 (permalink)  
Old 26-October-2009, 07:27 PM
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You have to be nuts to stand up and say ' I am right and a basic principle is wrong.'
(cough)Variable gravity(cough)
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Old 26-October-2009, 08:01 PM
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Jerry has a history of standing up and saying he is right and a basic principle is wrong. He also has a history of failing to apologise for and retract comments the defame highly respected scientists and their instruments.
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Old 26-October-2009, 11:40 PM
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Less than an hour before impact scientist were describing what we would likely see; telling us 'they will know almost immediately if there is water and within an hour have preliminary quantitative data to report'. After the impact, we were told we would have to wait weeks or months for any kind of data.
The two aren't mutualy exclusive. those scientists may have known if there was water almost immediately but that doesn't mean they are going to rush out data just to satisfy you.
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  #126 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 02:50 AM
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The two aren't mutualy exclusive. those scientists may have known if there was water almost immediately but that doesn't mean they are going to rush out data just to satisfy you.
More importantly, those scientists were expecting a big bang from the impact, probably biased on the very observations of comet the Shoemaker-Levy 9 fragments plowing into Jupiter's atmosphere, the wake of which also was a complete surprise to scientists at the time.

And yet I recall Arthur C. Clarke mentioning in one of his sci-fi novels that water, frozen to near cryogenic temperatures, becomes much harder than steel. It takes a LOT of energy to turn frozen water at such cold temps into a vapor, let alone vaporize enough frozen water to create a huge vapor cloud.

I have a hypothesis that LCROSS indeed hit frozen water -- but enough of it such that the frozen water-soil mix was like a really thick steel alloy plate and significantly stronger than Pykrete. In WWII, the US and Great Britain were seriously entertaining the possibility of building super aircraft carriers constructed of Pykrete. Such ships would have been literally unsinkable. 2,000 pound bomb or torpedo explosions would have literally bounced off of the deck or hull with very minor damage.

So think about it. I do think that LCROSS hit water -- just much more water which was mixed with the lunar soil to create a cryogenic mixture similar yet far stronger than Pykrete. So what would the effect of an empty booster stage striking such a surface have? What we saw -- an extremely faint plume since most of the kinetic energy was mostly deflected rather than being absorbed. Especially since LCROSS impacted at a much slower velocity compared Shoemaker-Levy 9 and since LCROSS struck a solid surface compared to an atmosphere.

Well, that is my hypothesis for what its worth.
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Old 27-October-2009, 03:10 AM
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Such ships would have been literally unsinkable.
Except for the melting problem.
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  #128 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 11:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JayUtah
In other words, you're a scientific technician, not a scientist.
By my definitions, yes;
And by my definitions, I am ten foot tall...



Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
most 'scientists', by degree, training or title; are not engaged in primary research.
But you accused scientists that are engaged in primary research.



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Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
We use existing scientific theories and methods to describe and predict behavior - both into the future and into the past. When we find discrepancies; we look for errors in either our analytical techniques or in the theories - almost always finding out we made an error, missed a decimal; or assume that we have an uncontrolled parameter in our experiment.
Please do not use "we". I do not recognize you as a fellow researcher.



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You have to be nuts to stand up and say ' I am right and a basic principle is wrong.'
Then you must be nuts...



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The most difficult task in science is to eliminate enough errors to confidently state: 'This or that fundamental theory is wrong'. This task (in my opinion) becomes impossible when experiments go arry and scientists hedge rather than admit they are befuddled.
Please do not base your characterization of scientists on press releases.
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  #129 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 03:58 PM
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...
...most 'scientists', by degree, training or title; are not engaged in primary research.

I have been and will likely continue to engage in primary research. Primary research, if I infer correctly from your definition, is to discover and validate new models. I do that. You, apparently, do not. Therefore I don't recognize you as a colleague, nor as anyone particularly knowledgeable in the field. You are an uninformed outsider trying to tell others how they should do their jobs.

The most difficult task in science is to eliminate enough errors to confidently state: 'This or that fundamental theory is wrong'.

Yet when I said
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayUtah View Post
...If science had a fundamental charter, it would probably be to get the right answer and to know that it was the right answer
you dismissed it as merely a rote appendage to real science. You can't keep your own story straight. When scientists want time to confirm and verify, you accuse them of sitting on important data in order to protect their hegemony. When they hasten to publish untried models, you rightly say they'd be regarded as "nuts." Now that you have conceded the need for scientists to take care in their work, when may we expect you to apologize for your unfounded accusations?
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  #130 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 04:33 PM
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when may we expect you to apologize for your unfounded accusations?
I've been asking for weeks.
  #131 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 06:27 PM
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There are some unfounded accusations he's been asked for years to retract.
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  #132 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 09:28 PM
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Then I don't accept you as an authority or expert on what constitutes proper scientific practice. Since that personal opinion was the basis of your diatribe against mainstream science, do you have any other line of reasoning to support your conclusion? Or shall we just appropriately reject it as uninformed?
From Nature, 2005:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...ture04347.html
Quote:
The actual duration of the descent following the t0 event was 2 h 27 min 50 s. During the first part of the descent, the probe followed the nominal time-based sequence with the instrument operations defined by commands in the on-board mission timeline. The later part of the descent sequence was optimized by taking into account the altitude measurements provided by two redundant radar altimeters. The altimeters were switched on 32 min after t0, which corresponded to an altitude of around 60 km. They provided altitude measurements to the on-board computers, which filtered and compared the measurements to the predicted altitude, in order to exclude erratic measurements at high altitude and to provide reliable measured altitude information to the payload instruments.
My bolds. It is reasonable to conclude from this ESA Nature published article that the two radar units (RAUs) functioned normally. Later the ESA published:

http://www.rssd.esa.int/SYS/PUBDB/in...UBDB&id=493201

Quote:
2.4. RAU – Radar Altimeter Unit Huygens successfully monitored the altitude during the final descent with a pair of redundant Radar Altimeter Units working at 15.4 and 15.8 GHz (Lebreton and Matson, 2002). The Huygens attitude motions in the lower part of the
atmosphere can be derived from the analysis of the returned echo telemetries. Unfortunately, unfolding the attitude and the surface properties is subtle and, at the time of writing, the work is still on-going. So the RAU dataset is not included here.
According to

http://www.rssd.esa.int/SB/HUYGENS/d...177/fulchi.pdf

Quote:
RAU A first lock has occurred at the altitude of ~36km; RAU B first lock has occurred at the altitude of ~45km, thus much higher than the minimum guaranteed altitude of operation.
- the altitudes reported by the 2 altimeters (RAU raw) are inconsistent compared to the prediction until an altitude of 17km on RAU A and 22km on RAU B. From 35km, RAU B displays an altitude which is about half of the real altitude. From about 24km, RAU A locks to an altitude which is about half of the real altitude.
- Shortly after 25km, when the RAU’s data are considered by the altitude determination
algorithm, both RAU’s are consistently locked, but to an altitude which is about half the real
one. As a consequence, this false altitude is validated by the algorithm and reflected in the DDB altitude (in yellow).
- At the predicted altitude of 20km, RAU B locks to a valid altitude. Then, at the predicted altitude of 15km, RAU A locks to a valid altitude implying that the DDB altitude locks to a valid altitude also, consistent with the “max” descent profile.
- From the time the RAU’s lock to a correct altitude, the lock is not lost and the altitude
measurement remains very consistent. As shown in Fig. 23, both altimeters lose the lock at
140m, fully in line with the min range of operation.
And according to an independent review by ALC TEL Space:

"Down to 25 000 Km the DDB altitude was extrapolated from the TAT. Then the two radars were selected as they were locked but providing incorrect altitude. Below 22 000 Km the RAU B provided correct data but was not selected as RAU A was still incorrect. Below 18 000 Km the two radars worked well and the DDB altitude was accurate."


If you go to the Planetary Data System (PDS), You can read how the most significant byte in both radar altimeters was corrupted; but my point is simply that the fidelity of the data is not nearly as good as suggested in the peer-reviewed article published in Nature.
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  #133 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 09:42 PM
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...but my point is simply that the fidelity of the data is not nearly as good as suggested in the peer-reviewed article published in Nature.
No, we're going clear back to the beginning of the thread to examine the big picture, not just one or two cherry-picked complaints along the way. You are attempting to set standards for scientists' performance. Since you are untrained and inexperienced, why should scientists accept your standard as reasonable? Since you have changed your story multiple times on what motivates those standards, why should we believe that you have carefully considered them?
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  #134 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 10:05 PM
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No, we're going clear back to the beginning of the thread to examine the big picture, not just one or two cherry-picked complaints along the way. You are attempting to set standards for scientists' performance. Since you are untrained and inexperienced, why should scientists accept your standard as reasonable? Since you have changed your story multiple times on what motivates those standards, why should we believe that you have carefully considered them?
If you only care to look at the big picture; you miss the devil, who is in the details.

Scientists hedge on the truth, that is a fact, not a cherry. They shouldn't, but they do:

http://starbrite.jpl.nasa.gov/pds/vi...ntProfile.jsp? INSTRUMENT_ID=HUYGENS_HK&INSTRUMENT_HOST_ID=HP

[Huygens] Radar calibration
=================

Quote:
The digital data have been affected by a hardware bug, which caused the upper bits of the digital 15-bit altitude word to change their logical state in a seemingly random fashion. In addition, due to the 15-bit limitation of the digital altitude word, any radar data above 32767 m are affected by a register overflow. In addition to these digital data errors,
the radar has been found to be sensitive to temperature changes and is affected by systematic errors that depend on the probe altitude. The raw digital altitude data have been processed in order to eliminate these known errors and to calibrate the measured altitude. This is documented in the file entitled HUYGENS_RADAR_ALTITUDE_CALIBRATION, located in the CALIB directory.
Maybe the ground truthing, the 'random word change' of the radar is not an important part of the big picture, and maybe it is; but if you only read the peer reviewed journal, you have no reason to question this part of the equation. It was wrong to provide an inaccurate picture of the fidelity of the mission data in the most anxiously awaited and widely read science article about the probe. The scientific process is always about attention to detail.
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  #135 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 11:00 PM
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If you only care to look at the big picture; you miss the devil, who is in the details.
No, that just gives you an excuse to quibble over some arguable minutia while the real issue goes unchallenged: you think you can tell professional scientists that they're doing their jobs wrong. I don't want you to simply give another interpretation of another event.

I want to know why you -- a non-scientist -- have such a gold-plated opinion on that professional scientists are obligated to respect it. It has been shown that you don't do the proper research. It has been shown that you flip-flop your opinions to suit the argument of the day. You have substantiated no appropriate training or experience.

I want to know what you think makes your opinion of how science should be practiced the standard by which it all ought to be measured. Explain, please.

And since you finally agreed with me that scientists should be careful, I will press you for that apology.
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  #136 (permalink)  
Old 27-October-2009, 11:40 PM
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if you only read the peer reviewed journal.......The scientific process is always about attention to detail.
Attention to detail means not JUST reading a single peer reviewed journal.

The apology,Jerry, for defaming the Cassini scientists. Where is it.
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Old 28-October-2009, 03:27 AM
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The scientific process is always about attention to detail.
Then why don't you hold yourself to such a standard? I can't count how many time, just on this forum, where you have been caught out on details. Just two quick ones. I can recall pointing out that a paper you used as support, showed the exact opposite that you claimed. Good detail there, eh? Or, for a more recent example, how are you coming on the details to show support for pulling the Nobel Prize from Ketterle. Being a bit of a hypocrite here, aren't you?
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  #138 (permalink)  
Old 28-October-2009, 08:01 PM
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The scientific process is always about attention to detail.
Except that you've never been a scientist so you don't get to tell us all what the scientific process is all about.

And even if you want to argue details, you simply ignore all the details about scientific practice that you don't want discussed, such as funding. The real-world practice of any profession is riddled with detail, much of which cannot be appreciated without having practiced it oneself. You simply want to impose your simplistic self-appointed view of scientific practice, fueled with cherry-picked statements, upon those people who have more expertise and experience than you and who have presented sound reasons for disagreeing with you.

You resisted answering the question of your qualifications until you were directly compelled to do so. This suggests that you know you are unqualified and did not want to reveal that, which further suggests you recognize that appropriate qualifications are material to your argument.

When asked to supply evidence that does not require measurement against your opinion, you simply render another opinion. You don't seem to appreciate the notion that your untrained, inexperienced, unqualified opinion carries absolutely no weight here. It simply doesn't matter what you think ought to have been the case.
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Old 30-October-2009, 10:38 PM
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What ever became of the 6 month rule?

It used to be that scientists were entitled to 6 months to withhold their data to be the first to publish. They were accorded this professional courtesy, but then they were supposed to release the data so others can suggest their own interpretations of the results.

In one instance, the early release by NASA of the FERMI data regarding the WMAP haze near the galactic center has allowed others to publish their theories before the FERMI team has had a chance to publish their ideas first. This places a possible additional burden upon the discovery team to make comments regarding the content of what others who had published first. Do they make their own suggestions or surrender discussion time to the neutralino concept? This is a problem of releasing data too quickly inside the 6 month courtesy period.

At the other extreme, NASA has not released data regarding their worldwide and well publicized experiment on the August 1998 total eclipse where they monitored for changes to gravimeters and pendulums. Since it was funded by NASA, even though Noever left NASA before publishing, one would think NASA would have a right to release the observational results after 11 plus years of no publication. Even though the observations might make no sense over the data set, such as nothing monitored by sensitive gravimeters in the US but video of pendulums in Eastern Europe showing the expected deviation, the data should still be released so others can have a crack at it. It was publicly funded and more than 6 months has passed on a topic that NASA seemed to make a big deal out of. NASA’s interest was driven by the mystery of the flyby anomalies.
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Old 31-October-2009, 12:22 AM
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What ever became of the 6 month rule?
All the missions I see Jerry *****ing about have actually stuck to this rule.

Here in Europe, they've not even heard of it.
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Old 31-October-2009, 01:44 AM
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I'm not sure this is on topic, but there have been strong indications for water on the moon for a very long time.
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu//...00127.000.html
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  #142 (permalink)  
Old 01-November-2009, 05:39 AM
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Scientists hedge on the truth, that is a fact, not a cherry. They shouldn't, but they do
No, they don't publish the full facts of thier research until thier research is done.

It is a standard scientific priciple that any discovery or reasearch that leds to a discovery or better understanding, is first and foremost allowed to go unannounced by the initiating team, to give them the time that teams need to work with the data, First.

Occasianly they will let dribbles out about what they may have found, but they are by no means required to relase all thier data immediatly. Do so so would be unfair to those researchers, and thier backers.
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Old 07-November-2009, 06:56 PM
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Attention to detail means not JUST reading a single peer reviewed journal.

The apology,Jerry, for defaming the Cassini scientists. Where is it.
I think I demonstrated that the Huygens science team was misleading (in their original Nature publication) about the fidelity of some of the Huygens data streams.

Cassini scientists waited more than ten years, well after the completion of the primary mission, to report on the evidence of lunar water, as per the theme of this thread. I'm glad they reported it, and I am thrilled with the INMS article about the nature of the helopause, but I still get to ask the question: If, in the intervening years between Cassini's fly-by and the more recent lunar missions, Cassini had crashed, or the mission had not been extended, or the JPL laboratory had burned down; would we have ever known that Cassini had detected water on the moon? It is my opinion that iffy, low fidelity data from one-shot space observations should be reported in a timely manner. In doing so, follow-up missions have a better chance of carrying with them the right instrumentation for further research.

Long delays between observations and reporting may result in later missions not carrying the right tools. As a specific example; The New Horizons mission to Pluto could have been an ideal probe of the Pioneer Probe acceleration anomalies; but so little was known about these anomalies at the time the New Horizons probe was been proposed and funded; there was likely no consideration given to add the capabilites needed to investigate these fundamental questions.

That said; the the Cassini Mission is and continues to be a fabulous success - hat's off to everyone involved...including me
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Old 07-November-2009, 07:08 PM
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Then why don't you hold yourself to such a standard? I can't count how many time, just on this forum, where you have been caught out on details. Just two quick ones. I can recall pointing out that a paper you used as support, showed the exact opposite that you claimed. Good detail there, eh? Or, for a more recent example, how are you coming on the details to show support for pulling the Nobel Prize from Ketterle. Being a bit of a hypocrite here, aren't you?
Perhaps.

I keep asking anyone to come up with an explanation for why the data from Cornell's very first 'successful' condensation is so pristine and every other paper I have read has less definitive data; including Ketterle's. Ketterle was Cornell's mentor and an expert in the field. If he isn't the least bit suspect that a pencil has been sharpened; he should be.
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Old 07-November-2009, 10:49 PM
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No where have I read that the experiment did not work. It just wasn't filled with as much gusto as anticipated. They still said they got the information they needed, and it would take some time to sort through it.
That is my point: It was never clearly stated that the both radars failed to provide information about a large percentage of the descent that they should have reported correctly; and that the published reports were a hodge podge collection of models, Earth based doppler and 'corrected' radar data. Very low fidelity data with no ground truthing.

Also, the rotational and linear accelerameter data were nothing but noise for most of the 'two hour' descent; so the rotational moment was calculated using the AGC current of the transmission system - this is data that was totally uncalibrated and based upon bazarre assumptions - you cannot use low frequency data collection of current modulations to extract information from a higher frequency system - the low frequency data is badly aliased, and can only tell you what it was designed to tell you: what the current is. Signal processing 101.
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Old 07-November-2009, 10:56 PM
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...the Cassini Mission is and continues to be a fabulous success - hat's off to everyone involved...including me
Since when were you "involved" in the Cassini mission???

...or was that suppose to be a joke?
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  #147 (permalink)  
Old 07-November-2009, 11:11 PM
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Originally Posted by dgavin View Post
No, they don't publish the full facts of thier research until thier research is done.

It is a standard scientific priciple that any discovery or reasearch that leds to a discovery or better understanding, is first and foremost allowed to go unannounced by the initiating team, to give them the time that teams need to work with the data, First.

Occasianly they will let dribbles out about what they may have found, but they are by no means required to relase all thier data immediatly. Do so so would be unfair to those researchers, and thier backers.
This is a reasonable approach, but only if you understand why your data is incomplete. Suppose you have data that do not make sense, but the reason they do not make sense is the theory is wrong. You may not have enough evidence to seriously challenge the theory, but your data might make sense to someone else monitoring another data stream that is equally incomprehensible.

Data from these probes, the data I am concerned about, is one-shot data; there will not be more data for years or decades. Looking again at lunar data indicating that there might be water where it is not expected - if this data had been released by the Cassini scientists ten years ago, THEN those scientists who were planning the LCROSS mission might have said, 'gee, there might be water places other than in deep polar craters; maybe it makes more sense to send a robotic lander than it does to plow a small bus into the moon and see what we can shake up.'
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  #148 (permalink)  
Old 07-November-2009, 11:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by djellison
The apology,Jerry, for defaming the Cassini scientists. Where is it.
I think I demonstrated that the Huygens science team was misleading (in their original Nature publication) about the fidelity of some of the Huygens data streams.
Lame. Don't change the subject and hope people forgot after a week or two.

Quote:
Originally Posted by djellison
And again - I repeat my request for Jerry to retract his claim and apologise for claiming that:
VIMS data was being withheld (it wasn't )
UVIS data was being withheld (it wasn't)
Phoebe flyby data was being withheld (it wasn't)
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  #149 (permalink)  
Old 07-November-2009, 11:36 PM
djellison djellison is online now
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Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
I
Cassini scientists waited more than ten years, well after the completion of the primary mission
Cassini's primary mission finished less than 2 years ago. Unless my calendar is drastically wrong, I don't THINK it's 2017.
  #150 (permalink)  
Old 07-November-2009, 11:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Jerry View Post
I think I demonstrated that the Huygens science team was misleading (in their original Nature publication) about the fidelity of some of the Huygens data streams.
No. You just offered your opinion that what they had done did not meet your personal standards. Since you aren't a scientist, no one really cares what you think. You don't get to ignorantly tell others they're doing it wrong.
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