Chatroom
 

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Go Back   Bad Astronomy and Universe Today Forum > Space and Astronomy > General Science
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

   

View Poll Results: Global Warming: real or not?
Yes: it is caused by human activity 43 22.05%
No: Natural cycles 63 32.31%
A combination of both 84 43.08%
Bring it on- I live in Nova Scotia 5 2.56%
Voters: 195. You may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #31 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 04:55 PM
dgruss23's Avatar
dgruss23 dgruss23 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Upstate New York
Posts: 4,216
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
Let me repeat myself again for those of you who didn't get it the first time, Glom had made many dubious claims about climate activity and aswell he claimed ( which he is now trying to deny ) that the current change in climate was indeed due to solar activity. This claim was proven to be false by other posters and the posted links to sources like Canadaian scientific reports, newscientist, NASA's website, nationalgeographic, and other Danish sceintists studies, and I think Glom had chosen to ignore those posts.
No it wasn't. Not on BABB. Nobody linked to any papers that demonstrated the Sun does not play an important role in climate change on Earth. I have asked three times (this will be the 4th) what references you have that make such a case. If it is going to take time for you to find them that is fine, I can wait. But generic references to NASA, New Scientist, and National geographic do not constitute references.

You've also suggested people here have provided such evidence. I've read no such thing. Could you provide links to the threads?

Here is a thread in which a lot of this was discussed. Numerous other threads and articles were linked to there. Take your time, but you'll find in that thread the reasons why we are skeptical of the AAGW scenario.
__________________
"The scientist who asks the right question reconnoiters a new patch of the unknown, and may, with luck, bring it within the constricted but expanding boundaries of the known."

~Timothy Ferris (The Red Limit) 1982
Reply With Quote
  #32 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 05:16 PM
Launch window's Avatar
Launch window Launch window is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,924
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
Sadly the scientifc studies of climate change are sometimes taken hostage by the radical-left or the far-right for whatever reason that may be.
So Glom insults the Europeans and uses slurs against Russians, what else is new ? At least his manners are a lot better than Project Orion's
Reply With Quote
  #33 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 05:25 PM
Archer17 Archer17 is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 3,158
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archer17
Glom is correct in this thread as to why Russia finally signed on.
Did you ever think, maybe just maybe the Russians ( who have very intelligent scientists ) might be onto something without getting bullied and blackmailed by corrupt Europeans ?
Russian area near the South of the nation - the Caspian sea and Black sea is very low lying, Russian and former Soviet researchers just back from the area around Siberia have been finding large melts, the area near St Petersberg ( Leningrad ) is very low in altitude, Russians have been going through years of CO2 emissions, a number of Msocow scientists have predicted increased flooding in climate change. There are many Russians who weren't bribed by Euros but are instead concerned by the changes it will bring to Russian, the human impact that climate change can cause.
I don't know why you keep mentioning "blackmail" or "bullying" regarding Russia's change of heart or this "corrupt" European thing. It was simply a "you scratch our back" - "we'll scratch yours" kinda thing. This kind of give-and-take is common in diplomacy. As far as Kyoto goes, it's a joke. It hasn't been irrefutably demonstrated that climate is predicated on emissions nor is the concept of major polluters (like your country among others) being exempt a logical solution for reducing emissions. I don't blame this current administration for rejecting it. My idea of a genuine treaty addressing emissions would involve all countries, no exceptions.
Reply With Quote
  #34 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 05:43 PM
Glom's Avatar
Glom Glom is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: University of Birmingham
Posts: 6,649
Send a message via MSN to Glom
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
Let me repeat myself again for those of you who didn't get it the first time, Glom had made many dubious claims about climate activity and aswell he claimed ( which he is now trying to deny ) that the current change in climate was indeed due to solar activity. This claim was proven to be false by other posters and the posted links to sources like Canadaian scientific reports, newscientist, NASA's website, nationalgeographic, and other Danish sceintists studies, and I think Glom had chosen to ignore those posts.
You keep on changing horses on this one. First you say that any suggestion of a solar-terrestrial connection is false. Then you say simply the suggestion that it is the only factor is false. Now you're back to the original one. Where was this refutation?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
I'm not sure what Glom means by saying I should apologise for 'Bush bashing',
You blamed him for AAGW.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
I - myself still have an open-mind on this whole climate change issue,
Based on your posting history that seems unlikely. You have repeatedly made long posts attempting to affirm the consquent. If you have an open mind, you wouldn't jump to conclusions about the cause of the observations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
it could be mankind, it could be part of a natural cycle, but one thing I am totally against is some folks trying to shovel their unfounded claims.
These claims are not of my origin.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
There was a link in one of the other threads that greatly described the impact on native Inuit and Eskimo populations because of disappearing Arctic ice and permafrost. NASA satellites have also reported on this - their satellite data -- the unique view from space -- are allowing researchers to more clearly see Arctic changes and develop an improved understanding of the possible effect on climate worldwide. People like Dr. Josefino C. Comiso, Hansen director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Michael Steele and others have all gone into great detail on this process. NASA's Pathfinder had show that the temperature of the Earth's surface had increased at a rate of almost 0.5ºC or 0.8ºF per decade, it is easy to describe a greenhouse effect one of the worst examples perhaps being the scorching planet Venus. Space based observation to our Planet Earth enhance our scientific understanding that ground based scientists cannot realistically achieve.
Affirming the consequent again. Change happens. The role the enhanced greenhouse effect plays is undetermined.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
There has also been the claim made that our Earth is cooling and I've seen posters use Antarctica as example while choxing to ignore scientific models that predicted the loss of dissolved oxygen in the Antarctic ocean, NASA temp records, Glaciers in South America, New Zealand and some of Collapsing ice-shelf in the Antarctic Peninsula, and strong warming trends in the Southern Ocean.
No-one has claimed that. Antarctica and other areas are cooling, but we never extended that to the whole planet or even half of it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
Glom himself has claimed that the south section of our Earth is in fact cooling because of this 'Antarctic evidence'.
I never said that. Show me where I did.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
The Scientific community has also noted that permanent ice cover of nine lakes on Signey Island has decreased by about almost 50 % in the past 45 or so years. It is true that in the past 20 years some small spots on our planet have in fact got 'Cooler' rather than warmer but using NASA's 21 years of accumulated data indicate temperature trends in the Arctic, the overall direction of the trend suggests 'Warming' for the Northern region of our Planet Earth.
That's not in dispute.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
Sadly the scientifc studies of climate change are sometimes taken hostage by the radical-left or the far-right for whatever reason that may be. I would rather people stick to the facts of Climate Change rather than starting to bash Al-Gore, or do some Dick-Cheney hunting or make remarks that the corrupt Europeans blackmailed the Russians into cutting back on emissions. Studies by many American and European scientists have shown that Earth has probably never warmed as fast as in the past 30 years -
What about thirty years in the first half of the century?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
a period when natural influences on global temperatures, such as solar cycles and volcanoes should have cooled us down.
Not the case with solar activity.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
There are many other issues to be solved and other studies to be taken before this climate change question is answered, but let's all try to stick to the facts rather than start 'Green bashing',
I haven't brought the Greens into it in ages, not since I publicly apologised for it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Manchurian Taikonaut
Did you ever think, maybe just maybe the Russians ( who have very intelligent scientists ) might be onto something without getting bullied and blackmailed by corrupt Europeans ?
The Russian Academy of Sciences still accuse Kyoto of being junk. They recommended rejecting it.
__________________
Freedom For Fission A breath of fresh Iodine-131
Reply With Quote
  #35 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 07:10 PM
Launch window's Avatar
Launch window Launch window is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,924
Default

dgruss23, it is my opinion that countries around the globe should invest in climate defences even before we solve this issue of climate change causes and whether humans or nature are responsible for the greenhouse effect. I saw a picture before perhaps it was National Geographic that illustrated its possible effects on a global level. Rising sea levels be they 1 meter, a rise of 15 feet, or as much as 50 meters will cause massive damage on a global scale. Even just a small 1.5 feet (50-centimeter) rise in sea level could cause the coastline to move 150 feet (45 meters) inland, resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental impact in low-lying areas. In South America, Brazil and Colombia would see massive damage, the United States of America could literally be cut in two, with Sea coming in the Gulf coast, taking out Florida and flloding Nashville and going right up as far as Detroit and Lake Michigan. In Asia a lot of India, Pakistan, the Chinese cities near the Yellow Sea, Tokyo Japan, Bangladesh would see massive destruction, the Gulf of Guinea in Africa, and France, England, Poland and a lot of other areas would see great flooding. Scientific studies have shown portion of the Earth's ice sheet has the ability to cause major damage, which contains enough water to raise the worldwide sea level by about 23 feet (about 7 meters). The political role in the science of Greenhouse changes was brought to everyone's attention some months back when some top NASA scientists accused the whitehouse admin of trying to stifle scientific evidence for climate change, GW has since gone and done U-turn on his CO2 statements, during the G8 meeting in Scotland Bush admitted the human role on climate change but the whitehouse still hasn't given any solutions as example.

Archer17, there are observations which show that our Earth's climate is changing or that we are seeing some kind of Greenhouse effect. A worrying indicator is the significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice observed over similar periods of time. There are many ideas to the causes of climate change and I'm not sure what article or papers Manchurian Taikonaut is refering to. Neumann, H Ameden, and P Marshall wrote on the Economic cost of Greenhouse induced sea-level rise. Knud Lassen and Danish scientist Eigil Friis-Christensen found that solar activity does sometimes explain some periods of climate change but overall has a minor effect and recent solar activity fails to explain a large deviation and current rise, even Sami Solanki at the Max Planck Institute who strongly believes in solar activity, admitted that in the last 20 years Earth has warmed up considerably within this time period and it means that the Sun is not the cause of the present global warming. Over the past 20 years, however, the solar activity scale has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase and it was said this is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels. There were also good papers by Schneider and Chen which described Carbon Dioxide and Flooding and an article by Park, Leatherman and Weggel who wrote about the Greenhouse effect and sea level rise.
Reply With Quote
  #36 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 07:25 PM
antoniseb's Avatar
antoniseb antoniseb is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Marlborough, MA
Posts: 15,110
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Launch window
Over the past 20 years, however, the solar activity scale has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase and it was said this is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.
If there is a huiman caused increase in global temperature, the combustion of fossil fuels is only a portion of the cause. Certainly the increase in population of ruminating animals, and overall deforestation have to play a part too. Have you seen anything that makes a clear breakdown of the fraction of the warming caused by these activities. I haven't, but I haven't really looked till now, and I'm thinking about beginning to understand this subject. So I'm looking for help on both sides.
__________________
Forming opinions as we speak
Reply With Quote
  #37 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 07:57 PM
Launch window's Avatar
Launch window Launch window is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,924
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by antoniseb
If there is a huiman caused increase in global temperature, the combustion of fossil fuels is only a portion of the cause. Certainly the increase in population of ruminating animals, and overall deforestation have to play a part too.
You're very right here antoniseb, many papers and reports I've seen think that shrinking forests and industrial waste have helped raise the atmosphere's CO2 level by almost 100 parts per million. Clearing forests, burning material and chopping down the rain forests have greatly increased concentrations by producing these gases faster than plants and oceans can soak them up.
Reply With Quote
  #38 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 08:50 PM
dgruss23's Avatar
dgruss23 dgruss23 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Upstate New York
Posts: 4,216
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Launch Window
Knud Lassen and Danish scientist Eigil Friis-Christensen found that solar activity does sometimes explain some periods of climate change but overall has a minor effect and recent solar activity fails to explain a large deviation and current rise, even Sami Solanki at the Max Planck Institute who strongly believes in solar activity, admitted that in the last 20 years Earth has warmed up considerably within this time period and it means that the Sun is not the cause of the present global warming. Over the past 20 years, however, the solar activity scale has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase and it was said this is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels.
First, the Lassen study is disputed by Willie Soon - a Harvard researcher that has been studying the Sun-Climate connection.

Overviews of the evidence for a Sun-climate connection can be found here and here (pdf).

The climate records show a correlation between solar activity and the Earth's climate. In the last several thousand years the Little Ice Age and Medieval Maximum are more significant cool and warm periods respectively that correlate with solar activity. It is well known that solar output does not vary enough to explain this correlation. However there are other factors.


Cosmic Rays have been identified as an important player in the Sun climate connection.
Here too. Research by Shaviv has shown that about 2/3 of the warming of the last 100 years can be accounted for by direct (variations in solar irradiance) and indirect (cosmic ray flux) solar influences on climate. That means that a best case scenario for AAGW is that 1/3 of the warming is anthropogenic.

The sun is more active than in the last 1000 years. And the Sun climate connection has been traced back to time scales of a hundred thousand
years.

Nasa has shown that
jet contrails may be a significant anthropogenic contribution - but that has nothing to do with CO2.

Finally, you'll find a lot of the arguments and references in the thread I linked to in post #31 of this thread. One of the biggest problems for AAGW is that the climate record does not support the notion that CO2 is an important climate forcer. See the de Freitas article that talks about the 800 year lag in which CO2 increases occur 800 years after temperature increases.

I know that's a lot of reading. So take your time. This is a sampling of what I've based my conclusion that CO2 increases are not an important climate factor upon.

Added: I have no idea what the heck is wrong with the links. If a moderator wants to fix them it would be appreciated because I've tried two times. I pasted them into word before the post box here, so I don't know what the problem is. I type xxx and its deleting the initial "url=". Never had that happen before. And it decided to turn everything purple on me too. Its beyond me.
__________________
"The scientist who asks the right question reconnoiters a new patch of the unknown, and may, with luck, bring it within the constricted but expanding boundaries of the known."

~Timothy Ferris (The Red Limit) 1982

Last edited by dgruss23; 25-September-2005 at 10:59 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #39 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 09:02 PM
Launch window's Avatar
Launch window Launch window is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 1,924
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgruss23
First, the Lassen study is disputed by Willie Soon - a Harvard researcher that has been studying the Sun-Climate connection.

Overviews of the evidence for a Sun-climate connection can be found here and here (pdf).

The climate records show a correlation between solar activity and the Earth's climate. In the last several thousand years the Little Ice Age and Medieval Maximum are more significant cool and warm periods respectively that correlate with solar activity. It is well known that solar output does not vary enough to explain this correlation. However there are other factors.


Cosmic Rays have been identified as an important player in the Sun climate connection.
Here too. Research by Shaviv has shown that about 2/3 of the warming of the last 100 years can be accounted for by direct (variations in solar irradiance) and indirect (cosmic ray flux) solar influences on climate. That means that a best case scenario for AAGW is that 1/3 of the warming is anthropogenic.

The sun is more active than in the last 1000 years. And the Sun climate connection has been traced back to time scales of a
hundred thousand years.

Nasa has shown that
jet contrails may be a significant anthropogenic contribution - but that has nothing to do with CO2.

Finally, you'll find a lot of the arguments and references in the thread I linked to in post #31 of this thread. One of the biggest problems for AAGW is that the climate record does not support the notion that CO2 is an important climate forcer. See the de Freitas article that talks about the 800 year lag in which CO2 increases occur 800 years after temperature increases.

I know that's a lot of reading. So take your time. This is a sampling of what I've based my conclusion that CO2 increases are not an important climate factor upon.

Some very well respected scientists think that mankind is able to change our enviornment and human activity can cause weather effects. I had been reading a lot of those articles before, may I remind you the 'Little Ice' age was hundreds and hundreds of years ago ( the USA didn't even exist then ), today climate changes appear to be influenced by other factors. Scientists say climate changes today are caused by other factors like the combined effects of deforestation and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as well as feed back loops from ice melts.

Last edited by Wolverine; 25-September-2005 at 11:26 PM. Reason: Fixed quote & previous post for formatting issues at user's request.
Reply With Quote
  #40 (permalink)  
Old 25-September-2005, 11:50 PM
Wolverine's Avatar
Wolverine Wolverine is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 5,257
Send a message via MSN to Wolverine Send a message via Yahoo to Wolverine
Default

Apologies for the OT post -- dgruss23, I attempted to respond to your PM but your inbox is full.
Reply With Quote
  #41 (permalink)  
Old 26-September-2005, 12:25 AM
dgruss23's Avatar
dgruss23 dgruss23 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Upstate New York
Posts: 4,216
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolverine
Apologies for the OT post -- dgruss23, I attempted to respond to your PM but your inbox is full.
Yeah I just cleared a few. I guess I need to go through and get a few more out of there.
__________________
"The scientist who asks the right question reconnoiters a new patch of the unknown, and may, with luck, bring it within the constricted but expanding boundaries of the known."

~Timothy Ferris (The Red Limit) 1982
Reply With Quote
  #42 (permalink)  
Old 26-September-2005, 12:40 AM
dgruss23's Avatar
dgruss23 dgruss23 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Upstate New York
Posts: 4,216
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Launch window
Some very well respected scientists think that mankind is able to change our enviornment and human activity can cause weather effects. I had been reading a lot of those articles before, may I remind you the 'Little Ice' age was hundreds and hundreds of years ago ( the USA didn't even exist then ), today climate changes appear to be influenced by other factors. Scientists say climate changes today are caused by other factors like the combined effects of deforestation and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as well as feed back loops from ice melts.
You're just going to appeal to authority instead of addressing any of the points I've made? I've rolled up my sleeves and explained the Sun-climate connection on a number of threads. I've also explained reasons why CO2 is not very likely to be an important climate forcer.

The 1940-1970 cooling period corresponds with a decrease in solar activity even as CO2 was increasing. Ice cores show that CO2 increases lag behind temperature increases by 800 years. You can't just handwave away several hundred thousand years of climate record showing that the Sun plays an important role in climate fluctuations.
__________________
"The scientist who asks the right question reconnoiters a new patch of the unknown, and may, with luck, bring it within the constricted but expanding boundaries of the known."

~Timothy Ferris (The Red Limit) 1982
Reply With Quote
  #43 (permalink)  
Old 26-September-2005, 01:18 AM
Archer17 Archer17 is offline
Banned
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 3,158
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Launch window
..Archer17, there are observations which show that our Earth's climate is changing or that we are seeing some kind of Greenhouse effect. A worrying indicator is the significant decrease in the Arctic sea ice observed over similar periods of time. There are many ideas to the causes of climate change and I'm not sure what article or papers Manchurian Taikonaut is refering to. Neumann, H Ameden, and P Marshall wrote on the Economic cost of Greenhouse induced sea-level rise. Knud Lassen and Danish scientist Eigil Friis-Christensen found that solar activity does sometimes explain some periods of climate change but overall has a minor effect and recent solar activity fails to explain a large deviation and current rise, even Sami Solanki at the Max Planck Institute who strongly believes in solar activity, admitted that in the last 20 years Earth has warmed up considerably within this time period and it means that the Sun is not the cause of the present global warming. Over the past 20 years, however, the solar activity scale has remained roughly constant, yet the average temperature of the Earth has continued to increase and it was said this is put down to a human-produced greenhouse effect caused by the combustion of fossil fuels. There were also good papers by Schneider and Chen which described Carbon Dioxide and Flooding and an article by Park, Leatherman and Weggel who wrote about the Greenhouse effect and sea level rise.
I did some digging regarding this topic after reading another GW thread a little ways back and am aware of the various arguments and the credentials of the people making them but I'm not sold. Your next post helps me explain why..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Launch window
Some very well respected scientists think that mankind is able to change our enviornment and human activity can cause weather effects. I had been reading a lot of those articles before, may I remind you the 'Little Ice' age was hundreds and hundreds of years ago ( the USA didn't even exist then ), today climate changes appear to be influenced by other factors. Scientists say climate changes today are caused by other factors like the combined effects of deforestation and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as well as feed back loops from ice melts.
I bolded the part of your post that applies to why I'm skeptical at this point. We are told by proponents of GW that our current "climate change" is different from the others, but is it really? You might think so, but I'm not so sure.
Reply With Quote
  #44 (permalink)  
Old 26-September-2005, 03:02 AM
Superluminal's Avatar
Superluminal Superluminal is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,415
Default

The little ice age ended "hundred and hundreds of years ago". That is still a short time ago, geologically speaking. Earth didn't heat up overnight, and ice doesn't melt that fast. So, its not surprising that glaciers and arctic ice are receding.

Particularly glaciers near the equator such as Mt. Kilamanjaro. Last I read 80% of Kilamanjaro's glaciers had disappeared in the last century.
__________________
I'm not a scientist, but I play one on the internet.
http://www.rrac.org
Reply With Quote
  #45 (permalink)  
Old 26-September-2005, 07:23 PM
Taks's Avatar
Taks Taks is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: CO
Posts: 1,253
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Launch window
Some very well respected scientists think that mankind is able to change our enviornment and human activity can cause weather effects.
an appeal to authority. there are plenty of respected scientists that disagree, too.

Quote:
I had been reading a lot of those articles before,
news articles? why don't you start reading scientific papers instead. that way you won't get as much bias in the information. i'm not specifically accusing anybody of intentionally skewing information, but a writer will add in his interpretation of data. they aren't always scientists, so that bias could easily be significant.

Quote:
may I remind you the 'Little Ice' age was hundreds and hundreds of years ago ( the USA didn't even exist then )
actually, the little ice age was not completely "hundreds and hundreds" of years ago. the last minima was in 1850, and the U