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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 04-February-2007, 04:36 AM
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Default British Columbia Earthquake

(News for next week)

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Scientists have alerted British Columbia's emergency-planning department to the possibility of a catastrophic earthquake striking the province's southwest coast next week.
While the probability of a quake is still low, rapid strides in earthquake detection have given federal scientists with the Pacific Geoscience Centre on Vancouver Island greater confidence in their ability to predict when and where one will occur. Garry Rogers, a seismologist at the centre, compared the current earthquake odds to the dangers of driving a car.
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Old 10-February-2007, 12:32 AM
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And some folks will still find a way to blame George W. for it.
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Old 10-February-2007, 01:07 AM
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I'll wait to see how he manages the devastation in Seattle. (It's the nearest big US city to BC.)
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Old 13-February-2007, 06:48 AM
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Probably better than cities in my state. As far as I know your Congressmen don't constantly dump in George's picnic or make a point of insulting his girlfriend, Condie, like mine do.
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Old 13-February-2007, 06:58 AM
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Our state's the same colour as yours, if that's what you mean.
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Old 13-February-2007, 07:08 AM
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Yeah, but you don't have the Three Witchs like I do. (Danger! Danger Will Robinson! Politics approaching!) Thats all I have to say about that here.
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Old 13-February-2007, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigDon View Post
Three Witchs
Sounds like you are calling certain politicians names...in other words, you are making a political comment which is not allowed on this board.

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Thats all I have to say about that here.
Is there some rule that I am unaware of which states that it's alright to make politicial comments as long as I immediately say "I have nothing more to say"?

Come on Don...you know how improper that is...sheesh.
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Old 13-February-2007, 12:54 PM
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Default Back to the Topic!

Back to the topic:

I don't remember a sizeable earthquake in British Columbia. Was there any seismic activity last week? Is the prediction still on?
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Old 13-February-2007, 01:59 PM
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Hum,
there was nothing last week, but its going to happen....

Quote:
It's long been known that Vancouver Island is slowly moving eastward toward the mainland. But suddenly, the data showed the movement was reversed.
Eventually, scientists linked this reversal of movement to the tremor events. Right now, Dr. Rogers noted, Vancouver Island is again moving west.
The scientists' findings were presented four years ago at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.
Since then, dozens of scientists from around the globe have begun tracking tremor events.
One day, one of these tremor events will cause the fault line to rupture, he said, resulting in an earthquake magnitude measuring as high as 9.
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Remember, duck and cover:
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Old 13-February-2007, 06:54 PM
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The whole region is due for some pretty impressive seismic upheaval. It's a fact I lived with in my LA childhood, and it's one I'm living with here.
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Old 15-February-2007, 04:04 AM
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Well being the skeptic that I am, when I saw the "pay to read more" nonsense on that site I knew that had to be like one of those, "pay us for the free stuff the government gives out but we aren't telling you that part".

The USGS and the Pacific Geoscience Center would hardly be publishing a copyrighted pay per view earthquake report. And they indeed aren't.

It's fascinating stuff. I've been reading about the monitoring around here for years and this is typical but still intriguing stuff.

SCIENTISTS MONITOR A PREDICTED EPISODE OF DEEP FAULT SLIP DEEP BENEATH VANCOUVER ISLAND AND PUGET SOUNDFeb 1,07
Quote:
A forecast episode of the phenomena called "Episodic Tremor and Slip" (ETS) has begun on the Cascadia subduction zone....

Present understanding of ETS suggests slow slip of several centimetres is happening on the deeper portion of the Cascadia subduction fault at depths of 25 to 45 kilometres This slip causes a small change in stress which triggers the tremor activity. Each event adds stress to the upper locked portion of the subduction thrust fault, bringing it closer to failure. Further research is required to determine whether these very small stress increments play a significant role in triggering giant megathrust earthquakes.
Further reading

I imagine it will be like Mt St Helens. Not having monitored the slip so closely before we won't realize how obviously ominous 10 feet of ground swell per day is until the blast big slip.

"The catastrophic eruption on May 18, 1980, was preceded by 2 months of intense activity that included more than 10,000 earthquakes, hundreds of small phreatic (steam-blast) explosions, and the outward growth of the volcano's entire north flank by more than 80 meters."

You kind of think with that much ground swell they wouldn't have had a person stay on the top for more than the brief time it took to take necessary measurements. But they hadn't monitored an explosive volcano so closely before.

I liken the ground movement around here to a sort of breathing like movement. The Olympic Peninsula will bulge upwards, slowly slip and sink back down in 18 month cycles. All the while the upper sliding puts more and more tension on the locked portion deeper down. I just hope when the big one is close, something will be different enough we get some warning.
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Old 15-February-2007, 04:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Celestial Mechanic View Post
Back to the topic:

I don't remember a sizeable earthquake in British Columbia. Was there any seismic activity last week? Is the prediction still on?
Sizeable is a typical mag 5 which occur around Vancouver Island quite often. If the Geoscience Centre was predicting anything greater than that, you wouldn't be seeing it on a pay per view web news site. It would be in the headlines. But actually, I think they weren't talking about a sudden quake. They were talking about the regular slow quakes which have been monitored and regularly occurring now for years.
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Old 15-February-2007, 05:09 AM
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Hum,

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