Having played hold 'em poker for a while, I regularly see the same players at the top of the league board.
Please bear in mind this is internet play so you can't watch your opponant for signs on what they're betting on, and with so many players it's rarely you play against the same players more than three or four times.
I'm practically convinced it's down to the luck of the draw for the pocket (the two cards you start with) and then the five cards that go down on the table, and yet the same players are at the top. I'm sure you can't be lucky all the time.
Normally there are ten players on a table so that makes 18 unknown cards drawn before you even start, and yet there are many web sites offering poker odds calculators for sale, but I don't see how you can work out the odds
Just a poser for you mathematicians out there. Can you apply maths to a poker game?

__________________
I don't believe in mathematics. Albert Einstein

Biologically speaking, if something bites you it's more likely to be female. Desmond Morris.

Quantum analysis is scientific dithering

Professor Frink: My observations n'hey, n'hey, show the universe could be a torus Weh, uh, or toriod it may like the typewriters and bananas and the monkeys with big teeth the biting the screaming Mm-hai!

Homer: mmmmm... doughnuts!

Call me paranoid, but online poker odds could be stacked against you even greater than they normally would be. How would you know if one person isn't controlling 2+ players at one table or that the website operator isn't in on a scam to take everyone's money? Now if all everyone is playing fair than the odds may be calculable. However, I don't play enough poker to help you out in that aspect. I do know that some players do better than others (consistently) because they have greater awareness (and/or memory) and can pick up on betting patterns and so forth.

Thanks for your reply.

To answer your first question.
The site I use (Partypoker) has rigorous rules about that sort of play in its 'fair play policy', and professes to use secure algorythms etc etc to combat it.
I would assume if it was found at fault it would open up a lawsuit so big as to make other online sites extremely wary of allowing that sort of thing to happen.
Also it has tv games and such, so I would think it wouldn't want that sort of publicity anyway, but, having said that, I'm sure there are less public aware sites out there that might not be so rigorous in its monitoring of unfair play.

I understand what you're saying about betting patterns etc and yes, if one player is using the same strategy all the time you soon pick it up within a few hands.
It's just these calculators and the words 'working out the statistics' and 'using the (insert name here) method' that they bandy about that gets me.
Is it for the gullible I wonder? 'Cos you wouldn't believe the amount some of these things cost. And Ha! lol... No, I havn't bought one or intend to, I'm just curious about their claims and is it all psudo-science and garbage - so to speak.

__________________
I don't believe in mathematics. Albert Einstein

Biologically speaking, if something bites you it's more likely to be female. Desmond Morris.

Quantum analysis is scientific dithering

Professor Frink: My observations n'hey, n'hey, show the universe could be a torus Weh, uh, or toriod it may like the typewriters and bananas and the monkeys with big teeth the biting the screaming Mm-hai!

Homer: mmmmm... doughnuts!

Absolutely. Do you play bridge? If so, you will find the exact same phenomenon, the same people win. With bridge, there is a skill in playing the cards, but a key part of that skill is knowing the odds and making "the percentage play". I'm not a poker player, but it seems to me there are a lot of "rookie mistakes", like letting hope get the better of judgement, that can bite you. If you know your odds of winning, and know how to use those odds in terms of intelligent betting, you will win more often than not.

Note that face-to-face play might bring in other elements that are also important, like reading your opponents. I wouldn't be surprised if, among face-to-face experts, some are also very good at internet play while others are less so. But they are probably all good, just because they must have solid technical play (even if they don't calculate the odds consciously, they have a sense for what they are).

Exactly as Ken said. Some are just more skillful than others. However, repitition can also help you develop skill and get a feel for the odds. So maybe you might want to play alot to understand the odds and improve your skill. If you play for money you may want to do this at a free site first.

I used to play contract bridge a few years back - talk about a hostile game! I've never known a card game that can lead to a 'I'm not talking to you for at least three days scenario'

And, to be honest, I've only been playing hold 'em poker for about 5 months now, so still on the learning curve there. But I have seen improvement with my own game so hopefully the learning curve isn't horizontal!
Funnily enough I've just been looking at the debate fallicy thread, and came across the gambler's fallacy and the hot hand fallacy. Was interesting reading.

Also in reply to EndeavorRX7...

I only do the freerolls which are good on the site I use being three a day, plus they throw in freeroll competitions now and then.
Have now made $4-30 but a good start nevertheless.
I've learnt not to chase now, which can drag you in, and not to get caught with the all-in monkeys at the beginning of a torny.
But, as you say, practice is practice. Hope to get there in the end.

__________________
I don't believe in mathematics. Albert Einstein

Biologically speaking, if something bites you it's more likely to be female. Desmond Morris.

Quantum analysis is scientific dithering

Professor Frink: My observations n'hey, n'hey, show the universe could be a torus Weh, uh, or toriod it may like the typewriters and bananas and the monkeys with big teeth the biting the screaming Mm-hai!

Homer: mmmmm... doughnuts!

I recommend Poker Tips dot org, although I haven't read them all

Thanks for the link. Will be most helpful.

__________________
I don't believe in mathematics. Albert Einstein

Biologically speaking, if something bites you it's more likely to be female. Desmond Morris.

Quantum analysis is scientific dithering

Professor Frink: My observations n'hey, n'hey, show the universe could be a torus Weh, uh, or toriod it may like the typewriters and bananas and the monkeys with big teeth the biting the screaming Mm-hai!

Homer: mmmmm... doughnuts!

I don't play online for money; because what is to stop one person from having 9 seats of a 10 seat game locked up (worst-case scenario)? You could be playing a Lan-Party anytime you sit down for cash online.

If you sat in on a game like this online you would never know that all of the cards were stacked against you. You might have fun playing for a while (being clueless as to whether you were playing one person or nine others) -- but over time, the person with 9 seats is going to crush you.

I recommend playing for cash only with your friends - or in a casino where (presumably) cheaters can be caught and removed.

__________________
Talent develops in quiet places, character in the full current of human life.
- Goethe

Jump in with both feet!
- Me, indulging my inner eight-year-old

*** *** ***

"Are you a mad-hatter that just types what he wishes, or have you actually any physics training?"
Occam's Ghost to Grant Hutchison.

I used to watch Celebrity Poker Showdown on Bravo, back when they still played it, and their expert (the very tall, very generous Phil Gordon) used to quote odds a fair amount of the time. Actually, Penn Gillette went on the show once to show that there was no such thing as luck. (Why he thought a single data point would show this is anyone's guess.) He said he knew nothing about poker, and would therefore be the first one out. He was.

__________________
Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

Penn Gillette predicted that he would lose at poker, and then did? Quel magician!

I only play in the tornys where tables will be closed and the players on that table divided amongst other tables as players drop out, the process continuing all the time.
Also tables tend to start at seven rather than the ten max, and within a few minutes of play random tables are closed and divided out amongst the spare places, with the initial seating being decided on a random basis.

http://www.partypoker.com/about_us/game_fairness/

The link above lists the sites policies against unfair play.
Of course I cannot vouch for the site, but to some degree you have to accept that they are doing what they say.

__________________
I don't believe in mathematics. Albert Einstein

Biologically speaking, if something bites you it's more likely to be female. Desmond Morris.

Quantum analysis is scientific dithering

Professor Frink: My observations n'hey, n'hey, show the universe could be a torus Weh, uh, or toriod it may like the typewriters and bananas and the monkeys with big teeth the biting the screaming Mm-hai!

Homer: mmmmm... doughnuts!

I don't mean to be confrontational but you are simply wrong about your conviction. There is luck in poker but there is also skill. The player with more skill can lose too but he will win more often than the one without skill. In one given situation luck may dominate but over many games only skill matters.

As I said over many games skill will win, so the best players will tend to lead these tables. They are probably playing more often than others (often on more than one table, or more than one tournament at the same time) giving them an additional advantage for these competitions. BTW there's much more to poker strategy than looking for "tells" (external signs that give a clue about the strength of your opponent's hand).

The way this works is that you simply count the opponents cards as part of the deck. I'll give an example. Say in a holdem game before the river there is one cards that would give you the royal flush. What is the probability of it being the river card? Well you know your two cards and the 4 already on the board. So that leaves 46 unknown cards with only one favourable which is a1/46 probability (or 1:45 against). The point is that you don't only count the cards in the deck but every unknown card. It's possible that one of your opponent has your card but that possibility is in the 45/46 cases when your card doesn't hit.

I'm not a mathematician but there are various ways to apply mathematics to poker. The simplest is to calculate probabilities. Some players use statistics to analyze their play (or their opponents'). Finally game theory can be used to exactly calculate best play for some simple situations.

__________________
"The cure for boredom is curiosity. There is no cure for curiosity."

Dorothy Parker (?)

Yes. Mathematics can indeed be applied to a game of poker, so long as you are working out something statistical... mind you... i don't even know how to play it

I was too busy seperating the two and not looking at the whole!

__________________
I don't believe in mathematics. Albert Einstein

Biologically speaking, if something bites you it's more likely to be female. Desmond Morris.

Quantum analysis is scientific dithering

Professor Frink: My observations n'hey, n'hey, show the universe could be a torus Weh, uh, or toriod it may like the typewriters and bananas and the monkeys with big teeth the biting the screaming Mm-hai!

Homer: mmmmm... doughnuts!

This is the way to do the math in a game. It works - but only gives you one more piece of information (which is good if you have more info than your opponent). You still have to consider your opponent's playing style, the 'feel' of the table, your position, etc.

__________________
Talent develops in quiet places, character in the full current of human life.
- Goethe

Jump in with both feet!
- Me, indulging my inner eight-year-old

*** *** ***

"Are you a mad-hatter that just types what he wishes, or have you actually any physics training?"
Occam's Ghost to Grant Hutchison.

Right, I should have pointed out that it wasn't a poker strategy post just an answer to a specific question. There are many good poker advice pages on the internet, more than enough for someone just starting out. If I still had to give one piece of advice for someone fairly new to the game it would be: "Don't play with money you can't afford to lose."

__________________
"The cure for boredom is curiosity. There is no cure for curiosity."

Dorothy Parker (?)

One thing I have now come across is what they call pot odds. What you do is add up all the cards required to complete your hand, then times by two and add one. This apparently gives you the approx' percentage chance of drawing any of those cards.

So if you are on a straight requiring say, the three or eight to complete it, it would be 2(4+4) and then add the one, hence roughly a 17% chance of dr