That actually made me laugh.

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"What you think you thought you saw you did not see." Agent J, MiB - Manhatten Bureau

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_revolution

As countries industrialize, they burn more fuel. Google "fuel consumption by country" or "world fuel consumption by year" to check the facts.

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"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction."
Shakespeare, Twelfth Night
Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor
"Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg
"Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort

If it was that simple, it there would be no controversy or debate. There are those who are not convinced by these "facts". I am not an expert, but I think they have arguments that need to be answered; so I watch the debate as it continues.

People would debate if you said the sky is up and the ground is down. Sheer mule-headedness of those both for and against has no bearing on the truth of this or any other topic.

__________________
"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction."
Shakespeare, Twelfth Night
Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor
"Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg
"Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort

True. Energy use is not equivalent to carbon dioxide release.

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"What you think you thought you saw you did not see." Agent J, MiB - Manhatten Bureau

I must have missed the all-out civilization-destroying nuclear war that proved this was false when the fallout ended up being drastically different than predicted...

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Do not taunt Happy Fun Ball.

See, this is exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about when I ask if there are mainstream climate models that make falsifiable predictions.

Blink and you miss it.

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"What you think you thought you saw you did not see." Agent J, MiB - Manhatten Bureau

It does seem to be difficult to get an answer to this question. It seems to be the place to start. If a model can't accurately predict the weather for the last 150 years, it may not be very good at predicting the future. Even if it does well on the past, this only makes it a candidate for correctness about future weather.

Heh. I imagine it might be difficult to make a model that accurately "predicts" the last 150 years' worth of data, since presumably that's the data that's being used to devise the model. Still, I'm curious.

Climate. Not weather, climate.

__________________
"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction."
Shakespeare, Twelfth Night
Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor
"Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg
"Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort

However you want to classify it. I am more interested in whether or not there is a model that fits the last 150 years or so and if it can make testable predictions about the future.

Climate, weather, banana's if you wish... correcting my vocabulary doesn't really answer the question of whether a model exists.

Are you implying that while falsifiable weather models do not exist, falsifiable climate models do exist?

...Nnnnno, I didn't imply anything. I don't imply, I have no subtlety in me. If I had something to say I would have said it.

__________________
"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction."
Shakespeare, Twelfth Night
Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor
"Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg
"Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort

Each model has parameters representing initial conditions and our best estimates of various constants, inputs, and feedbacks. For a given set of parameters the model may be good or bad at generating the historical climate trends. Many simulations are run varying the independent parameters (some parameters are more or less constrained by observation or physics) a bit at a time, to try to hone in on the parameters that let the model come closest to the historical trend. Once the parameters are optimized, the model can be used to try to extrapolate future data.

So, once fully optimized to come as close as possible to actual historical data, the accuracy of the model can be measured. If you'll forgive the wikipedia reference (I'm lazy), they've got a nice graph of one particular model.

The models all diverge, of course, past the end of real data. They do generally all trend in the same direction, however.

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Do try not to take me too seriously.

Which, after all this, still leaves the question unanswered.

It seems to me that starting at 1900, as the graph does, is somewhat of a bit short period. I would be more impressed if there models that could model as far back as 1800 or so.

There is an awful lot of divergence into the future. It leaves me wondering about the tuning of the models on historical data. I think I'll wait for the more definitive models.

If you are asking the wtrong question, the answer won't matter. Weather can't be predicted or modeled accurately. Climate, with enough variables known, can.

No, I'm not an expert, so I can't answer the right question. But that's the one you actually need to ask.

Yes, vocabulary matters when you're trying to communicate.

__________________
"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction."
Shakespeare, Twelfth Night
Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor
"Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg
"Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort