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View Poll Results: How many intelligent civilizations are there in the Milky Way?
1 (us) 50 21.83%
10 44 19.21%
100 32 13.97%
1,000 36 15.72%
10,000 or more 67 29.26%
Voters: 229. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1201 (permalink)  
Old 22-January-2006, 06:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eburacum45
...even a very diverse species could end up limited to a single solar system...a single solar system filled with diversity, rather than a diaspora of species into galactic space.
Not filling niches has not been the course of life on Earth. The pattern of life for four billion years has been to fill every possibly available niche, including places considered uninhabitable only a few decades ago.

It seems to me that a civilization with substantial interplanetary capability would eventually move toward interstellar exploration, especially if they found a nearby world with water, land, oxygen and chlorophyll. At least a robot probe after a few hundred years—imagine how capable robot probes will be in 2500 AD--even ours.

And who could imagine ET wouldn’t find some motive to go in person within a few thousand years? With biology stretching lifetimes to many centuries, even millennia; with the relative cost of interstellar travel modest, with all the diversity, ideologies and causes that will arise in ten thousand years of a civilization occupying dozens, hundreds, even thousands of celestial bodies.

Will they never have a psychotic group seeking Truth on X world, or Lebesraum, or Utopia; a mad scientist, a greedy nut—all of this aside from the rational or romantic reasons to explore a New World.

It seems to me almost inevitable that they will make the step—someday.

Bob
  #1202 (permalink)  
Old 22-January-2006, 08:34 PM
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Trouble is, it takes more than a mad scientist or a cult following to finance an interstellar spacecraft.
A spacecraft capable of carrying live specimens to another planetary system would require several times the energy used by our own civilisation in a year.


But maybe even fringe groups will have access to vast amounts of energy in some advanced civilisations. If a stay-at-home civilisation can tap the vast energy resources of the local star then such a project might be trivial; a civilisation which has built a partial Dyson shell, for instance, could spare the energy to send off several interstellar missions per day.

Long before a civilisation in a single solar system begins to collect significant fractions of the local star's power, it will reach a level of wealth far beyond our current imaginings.
A sizable population of a trillion sentients in a planetary system with access to a millionth of that star's output would each receive 30000 kilowatts of usable power per hour. If a small proportion of such a fabulously (energy)wealthy civilisation were to band together they could easily provide the energy required to get to another star.
  #1203 (permalink)  
Old 22-January-2006, 09:35 PM
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Quote:
A sizable population of a trillion sentients in a planetary system with access to a millionth of that star's output would each receive 30000 kilowatts of usable power per hour. If a small proportion of such a fabulously (energy)wealthy civilisation were to band together they could easily provide the energy required to get to another star.
How would they do that?

with regards
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  #1204 (permalink)  
Old 22-January-2006, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Champion_Munch


How would they do that?

with regards
By building freaking huge solar batteries that would orbit local sun in freaking huge arrays and collect freaking huge amounts of solar energy that we wouldn't manage to consume right now, I presume...
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  #1205 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 02:58 AM
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Thanks Eburacum, I made up that list as I went along, although I had been thinking about it for a while.

The common assumption that all species or civilization groups within that species does will act a certain way would seem to be a fallacy. However, it is also observable that disparate cultures often eventually unite into a monoculture with at least some common characteristics. See how far the US has come since the first groups established colonies in North America. Sure we have a long ways to go, but picking two random people from the US will show that we are more alike than different.

Moreover, a political union will end up designing certain features into the members of that civilization. This can happen two ways, cultural assimilation or physical conquest. That is, they will either agree upon certain general points of behavior and become space capable, or they will conquer, possible to the point of annhilation, the less adventursome subgroups in their species. Of course, the less adventursome subgroups may win, but then they would be less likely to become space faring. This means that any space-faring species we contact are more likely to have very common characteristics, at least from our perspective. But, I agree that it would probably not be to the extent caricatured with Star Trek aliens.

One reason I think we may not have been contacted, if there really are aliens, is that they are waiting for us to initiate. I don't mean a prime directive or a zoo hypothesis, but something more like a welcome mat or a doorbell. One of the few likely assumptions we could make about spacefaring intelligent aliens is their understanding of physics. They will understand wave-particle duality as well as the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. They will know, perhaps from trial and error, the universal principle of Meus et Tuus: Mine and Yours. I think the one thing that may be in common agreement is to stay away unless and until invited. This puts the onus on us to put out a "doorbell." A doorbell, being a combination Rosetta Stone and contact protocol should be developed by us and, perhaps, broadcast. It is interesting and useful to note that some people have tried to develop a protocol for the chance that an alien should land on earth, but we need to go the next step and give them landing instructions. While this may seem to fall on the universal intention fallacy (or whatever it is called), we need not assume that there is more than one (if any) alien waiting at this point in time.

I hope that made sense.
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  #1206 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 03:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ara Pacis

The common assumption that all species or civilization groups within that species does will act a certain way would seem to be a fallacy. However, it is also observable that disparate cultures often eventually unite into a monoculture with at least some common characteristics. See how far the US has come since the first groups established colonies in North America. Sure we have a long ways to go, but picking two random people from the US will show that we are more alike than different.
It could be argued that 200 years of immigration has left US culture more diverse than ever before.

There is no such thing today as a unified American culture. The American way of life is as variable as Americans.
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  #1207 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 04:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Faultline
It could be argued that 200 years of immigration has left US culture more diverse than ever before.

There is no such thing today as a unified American culture. The American way of life is as variable as Americans.
How many of them have eaten MacDonald's? Think smokers should go outside? Think that Democracy is the preferred form of government, even if they don't like the current politicians? Celebrate Christmas in some fashion? Tip their waitress? Only drive in the right lane on a regular two lane road.

It's not the culture, which are diverse, but the behaviors that often are.
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  #1208 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 05:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Ara Pacis
Only drive in the right lane on a regular two lane road.
Hardly any of them do that
  #1209 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 05:49 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ara Pacis
How many of them have eaten MacDonald's? Think smokers should go outside? Think that Democracy is the preferred form of government, even if they don't like the current politicians? Celebrate Christmas in some fashion? Tip their waitress? Only drive in the right lane on a regular two lane road.

It's not the culture, which are diverse, but the behaviors that often are.
We're getting off topic, but only half of those are relevant to culture. Christmas isn't celebrated by Jews and Muslims, which have a population here. The smokers thing, and the driving are enforcable laws, not culture. Tipping the waitress isn't specific to America, and for that matter neither is McDonald's.

But McDonald's is a part of American culture, I'll let you have that one.
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  #1210 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 09:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by William_Thompson
Wolverine,

Firstly, I have been answering direct questions in a timely manner to the best of my ability.
You haven't put forth much effort that I can see.

Quote:
Originally Posted by William_Thompson
Secondly, there is nothing arrogant in assuming someone cannot relate to my situation and there is nothing uncalled for in assuming that he is not employed. And there is nothing arrogant in my claiming that he is not and I am.
There certainly is. Your comment is doubly rude, as 1) it's insulting to suggest other participants are unemployed simply because they devote time to posting, and 2) because it's a weak diversionary tactic attempting to draw attention away from the questions you've dodged.

Quote:
Originally Posted by William_Thompson
Thirdly, you are playing favorates. No mention was made against is unfounded and attack against me by suggesting I was back peddaling.
The only favoritism I'm displaying is toward this forum's rules. You were backpeddling, and Van Rijn's observation was correct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by William_Thompson
Fourth, I have asked members to IM me the specific questions they are referring to since this discussion thread has grown and it is not easy to go back and pick out which comment they are talking about. And noone has. I can recall that I had regarded some questions as being rhetorical. Perahps that was a mistake.
Other participants have had no problems keeping up with the discussion. Moreover, you need to address unanswered questions publicly, as you've made claims publicly. PMs are not the way to answer them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by William_Thompson
It is not fair when others unfairly attack my credibility and you say nothing -- I found his accusation of me back-peddaling to be offensive -- and when I make a logical assumption that you choose to read as being an attack, you then threaten me.
I do not make threats here. It's my job to make sure people comply with this forum's rules. It's your job to follow those rules.

Quote:
Originally Posted by William_Thompson
And what direct questions are you talking about? I have answered the ones I could find and I even offered to have people message me if I have not. No one has messaged me.
It's not anyone's responsibility to message you. It's your responsibility to keep up with the discussion in which you've chosen to participate and posit claims.

You should begin by addressing Van Rijn's:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Van Rijn
So you do understand that folks here, and many in SETI research do not believe in ETI? You understand that many people won't make assumptions on limited information?
  #1211 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 11:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Champion_Munch


How would they do that?

with regards
Like this
http://www.orionsarm.com/civ/Dyson_Spheres.html
  #1212 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 11:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolverine
You should begin by addressing Van Rijn's:
Can I please have my question answered after Van Rijns? I still really want to know how Mr. Thompson knows about this NASA issue?

I'll narrow that down to one question. How about addressing just this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by N C More
So, NASA continues to investigate the question of life elsewhere in the galaxy because they (are) placating those who want to believe in ETI, but they really know better? For them, it's simply all 'bout the Benjamins'! Do you have any proof of this claim?
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  #1213 (permalink)  
Old 23-January-2006, 05:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by William_Thompson
I suspect thou art not gainfully unemployed. If you were you would understand. This is not back peddling, my friend.
See, this is my point. You seem to have plenty of time to post responses like this, and go find a smiley to express your feelings about your own place in the world but no time to back up irrational claims. I understand fully balancing family, fun, work, and life in general William, what I don't understand is if your situation is as much a struggle as you present, how do you manage to come to this site and post at all? I'm saying if you have time for the activities on this forum you do take part in, not answering direct questions, as you've avoided Van Rijn's for some 10 pages at least now, is back peddling, or as wolverine just pointed out nothing more than a diversionary tactic.

I pointed out that you are avoiding direct questions; you got offended for being called on that... again.

You accused me of not having a job or a life. for no reason.
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  #1214 (permalink)  
Old 24-January-2006, 05:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Faultline
We're getting off topic, but only half of those are relevant to culture. Christmas isn't celebrated by Jews and Muslims, which have a population here. The smokers thing, and the driving are enforcable laws, not culture. Tipping the waitress isn't specific to America, and for that matter neither is McDonald's.

But McDonald's is a part of American culture, I'll let you have that one.
Well, a bunch of those are still debateable, but it is off topic. My point is that finding a race like the ferengi that are primarily motivated by money and have rules of acquisition they follow is more like a behavioral activity. This might be more likely to occur if, for example, the only ones to take up the goal of stellar exploration are wall street types. Maybe, maybe not. But the chances of meeting an alien species, traveling in a ship, are likely to limit our observation of their homeworld's cultural diversity.
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  #1215 (permalink)  
Old 24-January-2006, 07:28 PM
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I think we're like the Irish or maybe the Icelanders cluelessly on the edge of a vast poly-cultural empire. If they know about us they don't really care.
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Old 25-January-2006, 11:56 AM
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Hmm...I see Mr. Thompson has yet to answer Van Rijn's question (or any of the others either). Something to pass the time while we wait, perhaps?

Quote:
ESTRAGON: What do we do now? VLADIMIR: I don't know. ESTRAGON: Let's go. VLADIMIR: We can't. ESTRAGON: Why not? VLADIMIR: We're waiting for Godot. ESTRAGON: (despairingly). Ah! Pause.
Waiting for Godot
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  #1217 (permalink)  
Old 25-January-2006, 02:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N C More
Hmm...I see Mr. Thompson has yet to answer Van Rijn's question (or any of the others either). Something to pass the time while we wait, perhaps?


Waiting for Godot
Hehehehe.

Man, you're like a pit bull. Latch on and don't let go... I like that
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  #1218 (permalink)  
Old 26-January-2006, 12:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewulf
Man, you're like a pit bull. Latch on and don't let go... I like that
Well, more like one of my collies.

It's just, well come on, Mr. Thompson accuses NASA of lying to and bam-boozling the public, the motive of which is money and job security. And then, he expects noone to call him on this? Pa-leeze!

In fact, if you're reading this, William, please stop surfing/bumping the old threads and return here to explain how/why you see this accusation as being valid.
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  #1219 (permalink)  
Old 26-January-2006, 08:32 PM
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Default On the Klingon fallacy...

If I can return to the topic which was briefly raised a few posts back;

there is a well-known tendency for science fiction authors and screenwriters to treat alien species or races as if they were a monolithic monoculture, with all (or nearly all) members of that species displaying certain well-defined and simplistic behavioural traits. We can call this the Klingon Fallacy; all Klingons are warriors (but in many other ways are identical to humans).

If and when we do encounter alien intelligent lifeforms they are not at all likely to behave like slightly modified human stereotypes, and they may be extraordinarily diverse within their species.
I expect that an advanced civilisation will generally become more diverse with time, because they will develop the capacity for self modification sooner or later; but that might not be a universal rule. Perhaps an advanced species will converge upon an idealised form, whether physical or psychological in nature.

But an alien species might be so different from humanity that we cannot discriminate between the different forms of their behaviour easily. Conversely humans (a pretty diverse bunch you will agree) might appear remarkably uniform when observed by a truly alien alien; all or most of our behaviour might be perceived by such an alien observer as conforming to certain strict rules, which we do not notice because we are so familiar with them.

Donald Brown of the University of California prepared a list of so-called human universals, which might be observed in any culture to a greater or lesser extent at any time;
http://www.robotwisdom.com/ai/universals.html

he includes such behaviours and traits as
mental maps, territoriality, self distinguished from other, tabooed foods, females do more direct childcare, preference for own children and close kin (nepotism), weaning, childhood fear of loud noises and strangers, pretend play, toys, husband older than wife on average, sexual regulation includes incest prevention, mourning, empathy, food sharing, turn-taking, group living, sexual jealousy, anthropomorphization, interest in bioforms (living things or things that resemble them), murder proscribed, males engage in more coalitional violence, males more aggressive, males more prone to lethal violence, males more prone to theft, dreams, symbolism, body adornments, right handedness as population norm-

and so on and so on...

not all human individuals or societies display all of these traits, but they are very common indeed.
If we meet with an entirely alien intelligent race they may be expected to share some of these traits- but we cannot really tell in advance which ones they will share with us.

An alien observer need not share many or most of the these behaviours herself/himself/itself. He/she/it might notice these apparently human universal traits almost immediately, and to such an outsider the human race might appear remarkably uniform
  #1220 (permalink)  
Old 26-January-2006, 08:38 PM
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Here's an interesting question. HOW diverse?

I imagine that, a million years into the future, assuming humanity starts up colonies on other worlds and propogates throughout a major portion (if not beyond!) the galaxy, that quite a few of those colonies will house humans that are ... shall we say... "beyond human". Whether through natural adaptation to an alien environment (and being out of the "mainstream genetic pool" for so long), through gengineering, or even through cybernetics (depending on how that cybernetics works; if we could download our brains onto computers, couldn't we also make our own mind, and then download parts of our personality into it to make another "us"?), etc.

So you could have one species, and then with enough time and exploration, end up with a million species.
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  #1221 (permalink)  
Old 26-January-2006, 08:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewulf
So you could have one species, and then with enough time and exploration, end up with a million species.
I am sure you are right. In order to thrive in many different environments in many different planetary systems an advanced species will almost certainly diversify.
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Old 26-January-2006, 08:49 PM
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For the record, by the by, I still want Thompson to answer the questions put forward by NC More.
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Old 27-January-2006, 12:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eburacum45
An alien observer need not share many or most of the these behaviours herself/himself/itself. He/she/it might notice these apparently human universal traits almost immediately, and to such an outsider the human race might appear remarkably uniform
We might end up learning a lot about our selfs from alien contact.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewulf
So you could have one species, and then with enough time and exploration, end up with a million species.
If we remain limited to the speed of light, that might very well be inevitable.
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Old 27-January-2006, 12:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eburacum45
I am sure you are right. In order to thrive in many different environments in many different planetary systems an advanced species will almost certainly diversify.
Genetic engineering would be one useful tool (and perhaps one of the more realistic tools) for colonizing the galaxy.
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Old 27-January-2006, 02:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N C More
It's just, well come on, Mr. Thompson accuses NASA of lying to and bam-boozling the public, the motive of which is money and job security. And then, he expects noone to call him on this? Pa-leeze!
I wholeheartedly agree.

Moreover, William_Thompson has repeatedly failed to meet his obligations here, despite the warnings issued by the forum staff. Contrary to his claim of "not having the time" to participate on this thread, he's not only needlessly bumped other, unrelated threads, but has actively posted in other discussions while evading the questions posed here. I made it abundantly clear that such behavior is not tolerated on this forum. Account terminated.
  #1226 (permalink)  
Old 27-January-2006, 02:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonewulf
Here's an interesting question. HOW diverse?

I imagine that, a million years into the future, assuming humanity starts up colonies on other worlds and propogates throughout a major portion (if not beyond!) the galaxy, that quite a few of those colonies will house humans that are ... shall we say... "beyond human". Whether through natural adaptation to an alien environment (and being out of the "mainstream genetic pool" for so long), through gengineering, or even through cybernetics (depending on how that cybernetics works; if we could download our brains onto computers, couldn't we also make our own mind, and then download parts of our personality into it to make another "us"?), etc.

So you could have one species, and then with enough time and exploration, end up with a million species.
Maybe... I seem to recall reading that larger populations evolve more slowly than smaller isolated populations. (I'll have to look for citations, if you need them.) Thus, if human colonies start with a large enough population, they may only evolve very slowly. Technology, on the other hand, evolves rapidly. I don't just mean pure science, but new application of old technology. I'm willing to bet that we'll find a why to live on Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune long before we evolve to a form that can thrive there. Genetic engineering may occur, but I doubt it will lead to large changes in morphology. There may be some radicals in the population, but most humans will want to conform to a conventional norm. We may eventually speciate, but I think it would take tens of millions of years.

Eburacum, your post about the Klingon Fallacy was what I was getting at. I was also thinking that if interstellar flight is universally difficult, then the aliens would need to have a unity of purpose and it would be apparent in the crew/passengers of any vessels we might contact.
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  #1227 (permalink)  
Old 27-January-2006, 03:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolverine
I wholeheartedly agree.

Moreover, William_Thompson has repeatedly failed to meet his obligations here, despite the warnings issued by the forum staff. Contrary to his claim of "not having the time" to participate on this thread, he's not only needlessly bumped other, unrelated threads, but has actively posted in other discussions while evading the questions posed here. I made it abundantly clear that such behavior is not tolerated on this forum. Account terminated.
Several days ago when William was bumping threads and otherwise behaving contrary to accepted standards, I suggested to him privately that he may want to take a bit of a break from BAUT to calm down and allow the dust to settle. I was hoping his taking a break would help to bring the situation back into control.

Now it seems his taking a break is being interpreted as further avoidance of answering questions, but that may not be the case. It may be, as I suggested, William just taking a much needed cooling off period.

While I certainly believe William needs to be accountable for his actions, I would like to respectfully request his termination be reconsidered.
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Old 27-January-2006, 04:31 PM
Bobunf Bobunf is offline
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Originally Posted by Ara Pacis
We may eventually speciate, but I think it would take tens of millions of years.
It’s only been six million years since Hominids diverged from our common ancestor with the chimpanzee. In the last three million years Hominids have evolved into a bewildering array of many dozens of species; Homo Erectus and Neanderthal are significant examples. Only about 150 thousand years ago Homo Sapiens emerged.

Why should evolution slow to such a degree? Especially with such a huge Diaspora of Homo Sapiens? Even if a new world were inhabited only once every thousand years, a million years would yield a thousand colonies, which would be genetically isolated more profoundly than anything experienced on Earth at least since the emergence of Homo Sapiens.

Bob
Old 27-January-2006, 06:47 PM
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Old 27-January-2006, 06:57 PM
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You do not speak for me, Lance.
Above request respectfully withdrawn.
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Old 28-January-2006, 01:13 AM
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Ara Pacis Ara Pacis is offline
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Originally Posted by Bobunf
It’s only been six million years since Hominids diverged from our common ancestor with the chimpanzee. In the last three million years Hominids have evolved into a bewildering array of many dozens of species; Homo Erectus and Neanderthal are significant examples. Only about 150 thousand years ago Homo Sapiens emerged.

Why should evolution slow to such a degree? Especially with such a huge Diaspora of Homo Sapiens? Even if a new world were inhabited only once every thousand years, a million years would yield a thousand colonies, which would be genetically isolated more profoundly than anything experienced on Earth at least since the emergence of Homo Sapiens.

Bob
I was thinking that they would be settled by a large population and that they might not stay isolated but recieve new colonists from time to time. Therefor, I was considering the large diaspora of humanity to be a single group which would reduce the rate of evolution. It might not work out that way. If each colony becomes isolated, then perhaps they might speciate faster.
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