I was thinking about the relative distances involved in exploring and colonising ones own planetary system, ie: Solar system, and exploring and colonising other star systems.

The difference seems staggering. On the one hand we can safely assume we will develop the technology to colonise our own planetary system. For instance VASMIR engines which are almost fully developed will dramatically shorten a trip to Mars. On the other hand interstellar travel still seems almost impossible and the distances are so much larger.

So it seems logical to me to assume we will be on our way to fully developing our resurces in the solar system long before we will be in a position to venture to other stars with reasonable travel times.

It makes sense we dont see aliens zipping all over the galaxy, and it makes me think very few civilisations make it to the instellar voyage capability.

Any one have any thoughts on this?

Sounds about right to me.

To be fair, colonizing the Solar System would be difficult in its own right, but still orders of magnitude easier than colonizing interstellar space. However, there is a possible quandary: if, say, an Earthlike planet (with water, oxygen, and all that jazz) were known to exist within a not-impossible distance (~20 l.y. or so), and the choice were between a double or nothing shot at colonization, or a much slower and more thorough colonization of our own Solar System, I think the choice would be very difficult.

I guess we'll have to see what carrots the cosmos has put on a stick for us.

My two bits.

__________________
"He fell for her like his heart was a mob informant and she was the East River."

--Anonymous

"I guess we'll have to see what carrots the cosmos has put on a stick for us"

Also assuming we mastered interstellar space there is no further frontier possible after that. It seems that would be apex of biological existence within the universe.

It just seems it should take us a ery long time to accomplish that - if its even doable.

You could physically be there, so there must be a way, the question is, how long will it take to find it?

__________________
Rovers forever! - ToSeek
"Carl Sagan sent a message to ET,
Neil Armstrong walked in the Sea of Tranquility
Steve Squyers built Spirit and Opportunity
Dan Haylen upchucked in zero gravity." -Brent Simon, The Space Camp Song
'Evolution and science are one thing, but you don’t mess with Yoko Ono. Everybody knows that. ' - 386sx

As I see it, the only way to 'master the stars" is to do it by not traveling. Anything requiring any kind of propulsion is going to be inadequate (though fine for the solar system). We really need to find some kind of shortcut to displace vast distances, like space folding and whatnot, otherwise I don't see us going much farther than solar system.

I guess, there is a way to cheat. In the not so far off future when we have finally achieved true artificial intelligence, we could send out 'seed' ships maintained by AIs to nearby stars (not caring how long it takes). If any of the ships discover a habitable planet, they could fertilize frozen/preserved human eggs with sperm, grow children in artificial wombs, raise and educate them to the level required to start colonizing the world they discovered.

This would pretty much be a one way trip, but it could be one way to ensure the species' survival and would obviate the need for 'colony' ships, as often proposed, with all its associated problems such as life-support, resources, group dynamics and psychology, population pressures, etc, etc.

Excellent point!!!

Actually, we could conceivably do the same thing in a much easier way: sending out self-replicating robots
(I think Frasier mentioned it on one of the Astronomy Cast shows)

These robots could also be programmed to set beacons on especially interesting worlds,
in case we ever manage to get there ourselves.

Both approaches would work even without major breakthroughs in max. travel speed.
We would still explore and colonize the whole galaxy in a few million years.

This of course raise one of the great paradoxes:
Why hasn't anybody else thought of that, yet?
Where are all those Alien robots?
(or seed ships, if you prefer ;o)

I don't think I like the idea of inter-stellar fetuses roaming around the galaxy without proper parenting...


Lord Of the Flies anyone?

Thats kind of a cool SF idea.

Mutant human foetuses in space evolve into a new species and come back home - VERY ANGRY foetuses at mommy and daddy!

But they would have proper programming, er upbringing, that's what proper AIs are for. LOTF resulted from a lack of supervision.

I find it difficult to imagine being able to attempt interstellar colonization before we've mastered a large portion of the resources our solar system has to offer. Exotic physics or speculative technologies (ie wormholes, true nano tech or AI) might provide shortcuts, but whenever I think of these things I think of the promise that fusion always seems to hold for the near future, a promise that never actually seems to materialise. One planet might just be able to launch an ultra simple ultra lightweight flyby probe to another star, but a colony ship would need more energy than one planet could realistically provide. Perhaps space exploration can be thought of as like climbing a ladder: the next couple of rungs are definitely within this solar system, and trying to get to the top without climbing the rungs in between would be at its very best a waste of time.
All that said you never know what opportunities will turn up, and I hope to be proven wrong.

A useful analogy might be found in botany. Some plants start growing seeds when the plant is quite small, and dedicate a large proportion of its captured energy to creating seeds rapidly Plants using this strategy spread rapidly. Other plants grow larger and produce seeds later, taking the time to become established in a particular location before expending stored energy on reproduction.
The first kind of plant is typical of pioneer plants, which colonise new areas; the second type of growth is typical of mature ecosystems, where the larger plants overshadow the faster colonisers.

If this can be applied to space colonisation, a group of colonisers who start to send out colony ships as soon as they gather enough resources to do so will spread more quickly, but these fast-colonisers will retain fewer resources for growth in their own system, running a risk of economic failure and extinction. We are talking respectable amounts of energy here- to get a starship to another star would take all the power currently produced by our planet's generation capacity several times over for a considerable period of time.

Slower colonisers could retain much more energy and resources to build up their civilisation, and become much better established, but would only spread slowly through the galaxy.

Or a single society could change from one strategy to another as required- send a few colony ships out early on, then switch to consolidating their assets. This is slightly more risky than playing it safe but might be the best strategy of all.

__________________
Orion's Arm . The Starlark . Voices: Future Tense . OA Flickr set

Depends on a lot of factors. If we can eventually create a space-habitat with full or nearly full material enclosure (recycling of resources) then generation ships become a real possibility. Things like true AI/mind downloads/life extension/medical hibernatory stasis could all make single-generation journeys possible too. And of course, trying to guess what types of propulsion will become possible in several centuries is like a Renaissance philosopher speculating about 20th century aircraft; likely to be not just wrong, but vastly wrong.

As for FTL, I doubt it will happen. But we may not need it by the time it becomes an issue.

__________________
"If this were play'd upon a stage now, I could condemn it as an improbable fiction."
Shakespeare, Twelfth Night
Illuminati's Razor-The most complicatedly evil answer is usually the most correct answer. - Fazor
"Every book is a children's book if the kid can read." - Mitch Hedberg
"Distance doesn’t matter much in space, where if you just start a thing off with the right kind of shove, sooner or later it will get where you want it to go." -Frederik Pohl, Mining the Oort