What is the consensus regarding the possibility the Avian Flu will morph into an all out human to human pandemic killing millions of people? It appears to me, the media bandwagon has vacilitated each week as to whether to make it a topic of high importance or not. Not many of the common folk I run around with do not seem to make it their top concern. In this world of knowledge, I would appreciate your enlightment on this subject. Is this a conspiracy or something we should all be ready for...or can we even be? As I am the neophyte in this realm, my eyes are in need of enlightening.

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Offer up your best defence, this is the end of the innocence. "Don Henley"
That which does not kill us will only make us stronger. "Steel Magnolias"

Forgive the newbie. I should have checked the search engine for previous threads regarding avian flu before I wrote this one. Still responses are welcome.

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Offer up your best defence, this is the end of the innocence. "Don Henley"
That which does not kill us will only make us stronger. "Steel Magnolias"

The reason for the concern is that a lethal virus (H5N1) jumped from birds to humans (and cats apparantly). As the virus is new to mammals we have little defense against it, I believe that currently the virus has a fatality rate of around 50% in humans. Thankfully the virus is currently unable to transmit from person to person, thus limiting exposure to bird-->human, but if the virus mutates while in a human host to be able to transmit human to human then we are on the verge of a pandemic that could kill millions. That doesn't mean that it is guaranteed to happen, but the possibility is such that any outbreak of H5N1 in birds or people is taken very seriously.

The World Health Organization is the key group responsible for monitoring the Avian Flu situation, you can find a lot of good information on their website.

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Now while I might be amused by Cthulhians, I don't necessarily distrust them to carry out the functions of government. -- JayUtah

What's it like being a skeptic in the Middle East? Check out my blog.

I think the vast majority of humanity is likely to be safe from bird flu. One of the reasons I think this is because there are a great number of talented people working hard to make it so.

The most powerful preventive measure for bird flu [or any other flu, for that matter] is: wash your hands. That simple measure can cut the contamination likeliness by 90%.

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If you're careful enough, nothing bad or good will ever happen to you.

This is a World Health Organization FAQ about Avian flu.
and

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One Earth, One Sky - IYA 2009

Interesting, I always thought that most people are infected with influenza via the air not by touch.

Yeah, any close contact will do. But people generally underestimate the benefit of keeping hands clean.

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If you're careful enough, nothing bad or good will ever happen to you.

Since influenza is a virus, it doesn't live long outside a host. However, when you touch your mucous membranes, you may be scooping up virus a-plenty fresh.

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

Isn't it true also, that if/and when it mutates to a human-to-human virus, it may by then also undergo mutations that make it far less deadly?

Or maybe far more deadly? (Though it would be bad form for a virus to be so deadly as to wipe out it's host).

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Don of Borg - Cool, Calm, Collective.

"Within the next generation I believe that the world's leaders will discover that infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis are more efficient, as instruments of government, than clubs and prisons, and that the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience." -- Aldous Huxley

It may; that's the thing. We don't know what mutations will or will not happen. We do know, however, that it's better to be prepared than to not. Odds are very good a pandemic will hit us eventually. We just don't know if H5N1 will be it.

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

I´d say that a virus is inactive or inert, if you will, in the absence of a host. Some viruses [not sure about flu] can 'live' [I mean, keep their molecular integrity] long enough outside a host and still pose a threat, like the hepatitis A and B viruses.

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If you're careful enough, nothing bad or good will ever happen to you.

Bingo!

That, combined with not picking one's nose (except after one has washed his/her hands thoroughly), reduce the likelihood of cross-contamination by more like 96%.

That's a 20x reduction.

That's hugely significant, and could easily reduce the number of projected long-term deaths from 50 Million to 2.5 Million

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I am Mugs, of the Alien clan of Usa, Nordamerica, a Terran, of Sol. A human.

Whoever says "perception is reality" is daft. It's merely an abstraction, and often not a very good one.

I would hope the person who picked their nose washes their hands after their little excavation. Who wants snot matter all over the place?

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"The universe is driven by the complex interaction between three ingredients: matter, energy, and enlightened self-interest." - G'Kar

Now that I know if I don't pick my nose, the chances of getting the Avian Flu have drastically diminished relieves me. Hmmm.

Is it possible to genetically engineer a less virulent form of the strain of H5N1 and spread it similarly to a weakened innoculation? Would this not prevent casualties?

Per a "professional friend' I am certain I don't wish my self or loved ones to die like this young boy did: a 3-year-old symptomatic male
Admitted to Pediatric ward 17/05/97 (Day 1) from the Emergency department.
Previously healthy. Sore throat, rhinorrhoea, and dry cough one week prior to admission. Fever four days prior to admission. Examination - Alert, febrile, no respiratory distress. Lung auscultation - decreased breath sounds and crepitations in R lung base.
Complete blood count - WBC 4700/microL, Platelets 62 000/microLBlood culture - negativeSputum culture - nil of noteViral titre - nil of note
Diagnosis of atypical pneumonia - Clarythromycin orally.
Following day - haemoptysis. Cefotaxime added.In evening cough, increasing respiratory rate and distress and hypoxia despite oxygen therapy.

Admitted to ICU on 18/05/97 (Day 2).
Mechanical ventilation for hypoxia 6 h after admission. Clinical R lower and middle lobe crepitations and audible "rub". Rapid deterioration over next 3 days with ARDS, multiple organ dysfunction.
Upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Worsening ARDS requiring prone position ventilation
Died 21/05/97. cause of death intractable respiratory failure (hypoxia).

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Offer up your best defence, this is the end of the innocence. "Don Henley"
That which does not kill us will only make us stronger. "Steel Magnolias"

"Now that I know if I don't pick my nose, the chances of getting the Avian Flu have drastically diminished relieves me. Hmmm."



Is it possible to genetically engineer a less virulent form of the strain of H5N1 and spread it similarly to a weakened innoculation? Would this not prevent casualties?

Possibly, I'm not in that field so I can't give a professional opinion.

IMHO, however, I would be concerned that this engineered strain would become the very human-spreadable virus we're trying to avoid. Flu vaccines as they stand now are not 100% effective and cause adverse reactions in some people. They also have to be "re-built" every flu season to compensate for mutation, so an "initial round" AF vaccine may be rendered ineffective should the virus mutate.

The most powerful preventive measure for bird flu...is: wash your hands. That simple measure can cut the contamination likeliness by 90%.

Where I work (major hotel chain--we're in contact with lots of people all the time) there are signs everywhere compelling you to wash your hands. Yet some people still choose to not wash, even after sneezing or coughing on said hands. Then they touch the same computer, desk, or paperwork everyone else does.

[Edit: Woo-hoo! Post 30: I've now graduated from the Junior Member class!]

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"WARNING: Being launched into space is hazardous."--Lonewulf

Triplebrick is no longer birdable. It was fun while it lasted.

"N'oubliez pas: l'ours n'est pas un nounours!"--Nounours de Salmonberry

It´s interesting that even if don´t inhale the "cloud" sprayed by one´s sneeze, the droplets containing the virus can land on your skin (arms, face) if you go through the cloud. So, you can infect yourself later, as well as others. Hence the importance of washing upper limbs and face.

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If you're careful enough, nothing bad or good will ever happen to you.

Actually Argos, H5N1 works a little bit differently from other forms of influenza. Not that hand washing before you eat is a bad idea. Other forms of the flu still kill about 2 million people a year worldwide. What makes H5N1 so deadly and different from other forms is it doesn't infect the upper respiratory tract and upper lungs, thus making it hard to catch. BUT unlike the other forms of the flu it attacks the lower lungs, which causes all kinds of lethal complications. (Its just harder for it to reach down that far.) That 50% death rate is with hospitalization. Untreated victims are pretty much hosed.

Children tend to be the main victims because of their habit of picking up pets including pet chickens and nuzzling them. This drives the pathogens deep into the lungs where the virus attachs to specific cell types.The other victims tend to be in crowded coops that have a lot of dander in them thus facilitating the inhalation of the virons deep into the lungs. Also there is very strong evidence that eating undercooked or raw infected poultry is another important route of infection. Hand washing does is no good there either.

Just so you know.

BD

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Gimme a minute to read through Jay's latest observations...

So the best preventative care we have at this time is to:

1. Religiously wash one's hands after contact with others.

2. Religiously wash one's hand prior to contact with others.

3. Ensure governmental agencies are empowered to derive a viable vaccine which is effective in preventing the spread of this virus among the human population.

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I am Mugs, of the Alien clan of Usa, Nordamerica, a Terran, of Sol. A human.

Whoever says "perception is reality" is daft. It's merely an abstraction, and often not a very good one.

Yet is overwashing our hands truly a good idea. I believe on one of the network news programs I heard that a little dirt or germs may actually be beneficial...that in fact if we "overclean" ourselves we may become more susceptible to harsh strains of infections, because of an over sterile enviroment? (I realize that now I am asking a query beyond Avian Flu.) Is this true or a myth?

By the way if the relief effort to Hurricane Katrina by FEMA is any indication in regards to the Avian Flu, of the effectiveness of the Feds to meet the needs of the populace, how can I be certain they will be able to provide a vaccine in time to safely protect the population? Or will we as a nation be selectively triaged? What will the factors for determining who is protected and who is not? Sounds like the lifeboat exercise we practiced in Junior High. Who is shoved out first, and who can stay in the boat?

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Offer up your best defence, this is the end of the innocence. "Don Henley"
That which does not kill us will only make us stronger. "Steel Magnolias"