No; not whether or not you think global warming exists.

It's about how much you are willing to put you money where your mouth is.

An online gambling service has started taking bets on global warming

Sounds like there might be an issue as to what will be considered "submerged".

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Numbers are not case sensitive. (me)

There have been climatologists offering to take bets on global warming not occuring, but so far it seems they haven't had any takers that I know of. It has been suggested that a betting market on global warming would actually be a very accurate way to predict just what changes in temperature are likely to happen as people who have confidence in their predictions will be willing to put their money where their mouths are and people who just like to argue won't.

I'm willing to bet good money that the earth will warm over the next 10 years, provided greenhouse gases increase in concentration as expected. I'll take bets up to $400,000.

If the last ice age is over, isn't that a good bet no matter what??

Are you saying that regardless of human activity temperatures would be rising anyway because the ice age is over? Well the earth has warmed by aproximentally 0.7 celcius over the past 100 years. If it had done that each century since the end of the ice age the oceans would boil on hot days.

According to my geology professors, there is no conclusive evidence that the last ice age has ended. So stating that the oceans would be boiling now if it had seems a bit premature and suggests that the end of the last ice age is known. I also point out that there was an unusually cold period during the little ice age that only ended around 1850. So perhaps the warming trend has been steep for the first 100 years but will be leveling off.

I have no evidence, I am just suggesting alternative explanations that might fit. Certainly the idea the current rate would have resulted in boiling oceans is silly. From my understanding, "global mean temperatures" are mathematically chaotic in nature and governed by strange attractors. This makes it very problematic to draw strong conclusions based on data from short intervals.

Sorry, please substitute the words "most recent glacial period" for "ice age" in my last post.

Even then, that would be the little ice age. The temperature rebound from this period could be asymptotic suggesting that the rate will slow and level off. As I said, I am only offering alternatives that have been suggested by professors in geology.

Okay, but do you want to bet on what will happen in the future?

I don't bet, I am a scientist. Or working on it anyway.

I find that even if you never actually bet money, asking yourself, "Would I bet money on this?" can be a helpful way to get an idea of how confident you are in your estimates.

By 2011?

I've done that thinking before, but then I realized that the only time I bet with real cash is when the potential loss can be converted into entertainment value.

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Numbers are not case sensitive. (me)

It was cooler in 2006 than it was in 2005, with more ice, not less, so, I have to ask: Are you sure?

Regardless, that's not a bet, as you did not qualify what is meant by "as expected." Furthermore, expectations vary significantly from one study to the next, and from year to year, so who's expecations are we talking about? Kyoto's? Yours?

Just curious...

Also, no bookie would honor any qualified bet. They would take, "I'm willing to bet $400,000 that the average temperature of the Earth as defined by standard 'x' in 2016 will be warmer than it was in 2007."

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I am Mugs, of the Alien clan of Usa, Nordamerica, a Terran, of Sol. A human.

Whoever says "perception is reality" is daft. It's merely an abstraction, and often not a very good one.

You mean in the United States?...

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"All your bias are belong to us." Ara Pacis
"A witty saying proves nothing." Voltaire

A lot of smart people once would have bet that white people were inherently smarter than darker skinned people. They had, in their eyes, genetic arguments and science to back them up. 200 to 400 years later we know beter. Betting is not the way, research and the quest for hard facts is.

I'd have to disagree with you on this. Betting can be a form of research. If someone said that Manhatten would be below sea level by 2015 I would say, "Want to bet?" Then their response will give me information in how confident they are with their prediction. It's not a perfect method of judgeing someone's confidence. For example a person may refuse to bet, not because they lack confidence but because of their belief in supernatural forces. But it is one of the better research methods available.

The problem is that betting is likely to be influenced more by the media that by facts, so using it as a real predictor doesn't work.

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And the "driving on the freeway on a scooter" analogy still holds true because the pilots are sitting in 7 to 30 ton aircraft o' doom and you are running around them in your very own Meatbody, Mark I. Beep, beep.
Trying to make sense of computers, The Error Log.

Not if you have a betting pool amoung climate scientists. And it still works when the betting is open to the general public as people will study what climotologists publish because they'll want to win. I'm not saying no one will bet foolishly, but those who vote foolishly will tend to lose money and either "wise up" or cease betting due to lack of resources.

When people make a bet they generally clearly state what the terms of the bet are. I'm willing to bet against anyone who says global warming is not occuring. Do you want to bet and if so, what terms do you want?

till on today what sort of efforts have been undertaken to get thickness to ozone layor? or it will be going thiner and thiner follows by the temperature of 50 degree constant temperature on earth!

or a comprehensive greenary on earth if earth goes completely green, (means huge forestry is necessary). this is only the substitute to save earth from warming?

sunil

No, this was a global assessment. Read it in Time, or U.S. News, or Scientific American... something. Perhaps someone else remembers?

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I am Mugs, of the Alien clan of Usa, Nordamerica, a Terran, of Sol. A human.

Whoever says "perception is reality" is daft. It's merely an abstraction, and often not a very good one.