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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 23-October-2007, 09:41 PM
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Wasn't there a tornado near Lansing last week? I seem to remember a story about an infant that survived it.
One tornado once in a great while vs. the great plains and the number of tornadoes they get? Or millions of acres up in flames? Lived in Michigan for nearly 35 years and have never witnessed a tornado. Only had to go to the basement due to a warning once. I'll take my chances.
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Old 23-October-2007, 10:07 PM
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Lightbulb Satellite Images

NOAA Operational Significant Even Imagery
This page features satellite images of smoke, hurricanes & typhoons, all manner of natural hazards. There are images of the Southern California fires smoke.

MODIS Rapid Response System
Follow the Gallery link to pages of images from the MODIS instrument. These are the best quality satellite images you will see of anything, including smoke from the SoCal fires. Amazing tropical storm images.

National Weather Service: Los Angeles Oxnard
This is the NWS page with forecasts, satellite images and current weather for the L.A. & So Cal areas. Follow the satellite link. The 1-km LA area images are updated every 15 minutes or so, and do show the smoke plumes well. Evening & morning images, with low sun angle, show up the smoke best. Full disk images show that the smoke has spread wide over the Pacific Ocean off North America.
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Old 23-October-2007, 10:08 PM
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Yet Michigan - which has more land bordered by water than any state with the exception of Alaska and virtually no life threatening natural disasters - is faced with the highest unemployment in the nation and people leaving in droves.

Two words explain a lot of Michigan's problems: taxes & unions

But I digress. I just heard from my daughter-in-law. She had contacted one of their neighbors and heard the fire didn't get their home. It appears to have come within 1/2 mile or so. Too close. They may be allowed to return tomorrow to get some more of their personal belongings. I don't think it's a good idea to move home just yet.
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Old 23-October-2007, 10:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Larry Jacks View Post
But I digress. I just heard from my daughter-in-law. She had contacted one of their neighbors and heard the fire didn't get their home. It appears to have come within 1/2 mile or so. Too close. They may be allowed to return tomorrow to get some more of their personal belongings. I don't think it's a good idea to move home just yet.
That's very good news.
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Old 23-October-2007, 10:55 PM
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Not sure if this is politics...
No...I'd call it short sightedness.

Do you hold the same opinion of fires started by arsonists???
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Old 23-October-2007, 11:00 PM
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Not sure if this is politics - but at what point do we stop subsidizing individuals desire to live in places that are cleary prone to natural disasters?

"You can build here - but you can not get insurance and the government will not pay to replace your house if it burns down."
Most of places are subject to some kind of extreme weather. Insurance is not subsidie it is so if somethimg happens you can replace the damaged items.
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Old 23-October-2007, 11:12 PM
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One tornado once in a great while vs. the great plains and the number of tornadoes they get? Or millions of acres up in flames? Lived in Michigan for nearly 35 years and have never witnessed a tornado. Only had to go to the basement due to a warning once. I'll take my chances.
A google search turned up several F5 tornadoes in Michigan over the decades. I always found it amusing that my relatives would make a big deal out of any California earthquake they heard about (which were usually so small that nobody paid attention to them here) but essentially ignored all but the largest tornadoes in their state. In California, we've had a few F2 tornadoes over the decades, but tornadoes are rare, and usually are F0 when they occur at all.

If you want to pick a state without any kinds of natural disasters, it's going to be a short list
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Old 24-October-2007, 12:07 AM
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Here's two pics of the smoke plume from my area. Those are the fires in OC.


http://aycu11.webshots.com/image/298...9112884_rs.jpg

http://aycu07.webshots.com/image/326...7943795_rs.jpg
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Old 24-October-2007, 12:28 AM
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Don't know of any astronomy-related structures currently at risk. There are threats though.

Pasadena Star News (ironic name):
BA Blog: Palomar Observatory at risk from fires?

The BA is seeking info.

Quote:
News reports from a few hours ago indicate that some of the people evacuated from the fires near San Diego are being housed at the observatory, but a BABloggee just emailed me saying that the observatory itself has been evacuated.
[...]
If you have solid information (I stress the "solid"), please post in the comments [there in the BA Blog, and here in BAUT Forum].
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Old 24-October-2007, 01:27 AM
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Mt. Wilson tower webcam

Currently:
Quote:
Southwest view showing smoke over Pasadena - Los Angeles - Glendale.

Solar observer comment posted on October 23, 2007 at 16:35 P.D.T.
Observatory weather: overcast sky with smoke and haze; winds calm; 67° F.
Palomar Observatory webcam

Currently showing a missing image. (30 minutes ago it showed an interior shot of some telescope.)

Palomar All-Sky Surveillance

Currently showing, as it should, last shot of last night's observing time: closed dome roof.

Lyon's Peak webcam

Quote:
These cameras are located on Lyons Peak, just east of Jamul.
I think Palomar is on the distant horizon (behind the smoke) circa 50 miles north.

Parent of Lyon's Peak camera: HPWREN: High-Performance Wireless Research and Education Network

Shows lots of San Diego area webcams, including Palomar Hale Telescope interior cited above.
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Old 24-October-2007, 03:05 AM
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At their 7 PM TV news conference, the San Diego County Office of Emergency Services mentioned 2 fires went across Palomar Mountain's base, but said nothing about the Observatory itself. The direct east wind has died down and is now shifting about unpredictably.
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Old 24-October-2007, 07:46 AM
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...They've lived in Rancho Bernardo for 5 years....The last official map from 0530 this morning seems to indicate their home is just outside the fire zone. However, it lacks enough reference landmarks (e.g. named roads) to be certain...
KUSI-TV just announced fire-damaged Rancho Bernardo addresses may be listed here:
http://sandiego.gov/
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Old 24-October-2007, 01:49 PM
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Thanks. I heard they had an address list online and hoped to find it this morning. Their address isn't listed. Good news.
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:00 PM
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This looks ominous:

Quote:
Originally Posted by 01101001 View Post
Looking in wrong direction although smoke is distinct.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 01101001 View Post
[
Palomar Observatory webcam

Currently showing a missing image. (30 minutes ago it showed an interior shot of some telescope.).
Still missing picture.

Quote:
Originally Posted by 01101001 View Post
Shows what I take to be dense smoke, and nothing else.

John
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:10 PM
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Two words explain a lot of Michigan's problems: taxes & unions
You won't hear any disagreement from me. Our esteemed leaders are still trying to run the state like the big three dominate the auto industry and union workers are the only ones who can tighten a lugnut at the factory. Oh - and if we have a revenue shortfall - let's raise taxes because with all our job creation - it's not like anyone is going to leave the state for greener pastures.
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:30 PM
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Not sure if this is politics - but at what point do we stop subsidizing individuals desire to live in places that are cleary prone to natural disasters?

"You can build here - but you can not get insurance and the government will not pay to replace your house if it burns down."
Aside from Antarctica, please identify some place on the planet that does not have a native population.

People live everywhere - despite the potential for disaster: be it man-made, natural or otherwise.
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:41 PM
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Most of places are subject to some kind of extreme weather. Insurance is not subsidie it is so if somethimg happens you can replace the damaged items.
Actually, the government does subsidize insurance under the National Flood Insurance Program for those who wish to live in flood zones. Private insurance carriers won't cover it on their own. Why don't they just make these areas off limits to development if it's that big of a risk.
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DyerWolf View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock Jenkins
Not sure if this is politics - but at what point do we stop subsidizing individuals desire to live in places that are cleary prone to natural disasters?

"You can build here - but you can not get insurance and the government will not pay to replace your house if it burns down."
Aside from Antarctica, please identify some place on the planet that does not have a native population.

People live everywhere - despite the potential for disaster: be it man-made, natural or otherwise.
You are correct DyerWolf. But people may live "inappropriately" for the particular land. For example, building many permanent structures of flammable materials in a ecosystem that is subject to annual brushfires. Or building non-earthquake resistant structures in areas subject to earthquakes. Or non-wind resistant structures in areas subject to tornadoes or hurricanes. And just building more buildings than the carrying-capacity of the land.

As far as subsidizing individuals to do so, I think it is too political for me to give an opinion.
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:45 PM
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Not sure if this is politics - but at what point do we stop subsidizing individuals desire to live in places that are cleary prone to natural disasters?
Like the planet Earth?
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:47 PM
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Not sure if this is politics - but at what point do we stop subsidizing individuals desire to live in places that are cleary prone to natural disasters?
Why should we alter the time honored tradition of parting fools and their money?
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Old 24-October-2007, 02:54 PM
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Actually, the government does subsidize insurance under the National Flood Insurance Program for those who wish to live in flood zones. Private insurance carriers won't cover it on their own. Why don't they just make these areas off limits to development if it's that big of a risk.
All I can relate is my own experience with this. My house is on the edge of a state nature preserve, a large marsh (wetland). Several years ago, our insurance company informed us that the area had been designated a flood zone (the middle of three categories of risk), that flood damage would not be covered, and we would have to purchase supplemental flood insurance, which we did.

Our house has been in this spot for 30+ years, and we have lived there about half that time. We have never had anything close to a flood and a little over a year ago our county had one of those once-a-century rainstorms. There was a lot of flooding in the area, but we had none. From what I know about wetlands, we are actually less likely to have a flood, not more. But there is no arguing, that I know of, about the flood zone assessment.

So, I choose to live here before it was designated a flood zone and have done the due diligence that is expected of me (flood insurance). Should I be required to abandon my home? That is not a rhetoric question, I seriously want to know how these kinds of cases fit in with your "ban development" idea.
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Old 24-October-2007, 03:09 PM
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So, I choose to live here before it was designated a flood zone and have done the due diligence that is expected of me (flood insurance). Should I be required to abandon my home? That is not a rhetoric question, I seriously want to know how these kinds of cases fit in with your "ban development" idea.
As with most new laws - there should be a grandfather clause. I am referring to new development. There may not be many fans of John Stossel in this forum, but he had a chapter in his book about a multi-million dollar home he was able to build with only 100 feet of sand separating said home from the ocean. No private insurance carrier would cover it - but the government will. Why should our tax dollars be supporting such things? Should the government be in the insurance business at all?

I don't disagree with FEMA as a concept. But I think we know enough these days about the probabilities of events in certain areas to say to an individual that if you choose to do this - you are on your own. The government does not have the discretionary funds to cover the potential losses.

Perhaps local governments, based on a cost benefit analysis of potential property tax revenue vs. potential losses in a given time frame could choose to support such projects. I just don't think it's the place of the federal government.

Either way - I'm sure I'm way overstepping politics by now - but the question was posed.
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Old 24-October-2007, 03:28 PM
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Welcome to the New America.

Ask not what you can do for your country, ask what your country can give you as a handout.

Personally I think anyone in the US who thinks the government should provide everything for them should be exiled to Venezuela...

As for grandfather clauses, those aren't always valid claims. Zoning laws can change, and those changes can throw businesses that have been in operation for decades out of their locations inside of 30 days, if the zoning commission has a judge in their back pocket.
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Old 24-October-2007, 03:43 PM
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Today we should be seeing the Martin Mars Water Bomber in action against the San Diego fires, sent down from Canada, along with six domestic U.S. military C-130s.
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Old 24-October-2007, 03:58 PM
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Mt. Wilson tower webcam

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Quote:
Southwest view showing smoke over Pasadena - Los Angeles - Glendale.
Huh. My son's house is down there somewhere.
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Old 24-October-2007, 05:43 PM
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Firefighting from planes is fascinating. Some of the best planes are relatively small but because they can refill their water tanks very quickly, they can put more water on a fire in a given time than much larger planes. I've read that 4 C-130s from our local reserve unit are either in California or on their way. A C-130 can carry a lot of fire retardant but it has to return to base, land to a complete stop, refill, and fly back to attack again. Depending on air traffic and the distances involved, they might be doing good to get 1-2 drops per hour.

By contrast, the Bombardier 415 (formerly Canadair CL-415) is a smaller plane that can do a running refill by skimming across the surface of a lake or perhaps the ocean, refilling the tanks in a matter of seconds. It's one of the best firefighting planes ever made. The Mars firefighting plane is much larger than the 415 (about 4 times the water capacity). It also appears to have those scoops so it can refill rapidly. While it may not be able to do as many drops per hour, the larger capacity makes up for a slower cycle time.

Those high winds make it hard to operate those planes. Some of them aren't useful in some areas, either. For example, we had some massive wildfires in Colorado 4 years ago. To the best of my knowledge, those water scooping planes weren't used because the high density altitude reduces their load carrying ability and there aren't so many lakes as a water source.

Giant firefighting planes like that converted DC-10 can carry a lot of retardant but the number of drops per day is probably very limited because the turn-around time has to be pretty long. Still, there are times when being able to dump 12,000 gallons in a single drop can be very useful.
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Old 24-October-2007, 06:02 PM
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Not sure if this is politics - but at what point do we stop subsidizing individuals desire to live in places that are cleary prone to natural disasters?

The US East and Gulf coast regions get hit by hurricanes from time to time. The South and Midwest are frequently hit with flooding and tornados. Many places in the western US are hit by wildfires. Some areas get hit by massive blizzards. The West coast regions get hit by earthquakes, wildfires, the occassional mudslides and even volcanoes.

What's left? Some 50% of the US population lives within 25 miles of a coast and/or in an earthquake zone. Where should they relocate to?

I strongly suspect that the government programs that help people rebuild after hurricanes and the like were passed (at least in part) to help line the pockets of developers who wanted to build and sell homes there.
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Old 24-October-2007, 06:35 PM
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NASA Earth Observatory: Fires in Southern California



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Fueled by the powerful Santa Ana winds that whip from the high-altitude deserts of the Great Basin toward the Pacific Ocean, 12 large wildfires raged in California on October 23, 2007. The fires clouded the air over the Pacific with dense plumes of smoke that stretched across hundreds of kilometers. The immensity of the event is illustrated in the top photo-like image, captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite on October 23.
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Old 24-October-2007, 07:35 PM
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Moist on-shore winds are expected to begin tonight/tomorrow as the high-pressure area over Provo, Utah driving the off-shore Santa Ana winds hopefully moves on... (per KUSI-TV weatherman John Coleman)
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Old 24-October-2007, 07:46 PM
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Huh. My son's house is down there somewhere.
So's my mom's. I haven't heard from her, but a lot of houses would have to burn before the fire got to her.
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