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Old 18-December-2007, 04:46 PM
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Default Murphy's accidents

Two local situations today just made me comment...
I don't know if there is paranormal involvment (ie astrology), or just some random events that just happen to all coincide (my bet) to make Murphy's law a reality.

Man Dies After Head-On Collision With Granddaughter
Quote:
...75-year-old James Majors, of Brewster, died in a head-on collision Monday. The trooper's report said the granddaughter swerved across the center line of U.S. 62 near Navarre to avoid a horse-drawn buggy.
1 Dead In Crash; Officials Worry Bridge May Collapse
Boom truck hits (and weakens) bridge.
Bridge has 6 inch gas line which ruptures.
Debris causes car to swerve into oncoming traffic.
Head on collision with Semi carrying propane which ruptures.
230 homes evacuated.
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Old 18-December-2007, 06:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NEOWatcher View Post
I don't know if there is paranormal involvment (ie astrology), or just some random events that just happen to all coincide (my bet) to make Murphy's law a reality.
When I was a kid, I could flip and catch a coin so that it would turn up whichever side I'd place it on my thumb. Not quite every time, but well beyond what chance should predict. It took months of practice (and I've since lost the ability), but I'd learned to rig the canonically random event.

Above the quantum level of physics, everything is deterministic. It may defy (however thoroughly) our ability to predict it, but even the random coin toss is reliably deterministic if you can somehow control (or monitor) enough variables.

Luck is nothing more than coincidence taken personally. Let's look at the first of your articles:

The US Bureau of Transportation Statistics claims that passenger car fatalities have trended downward since 1975, from 25,000 deaths to a bit over 17,000.

Okay. How often do we hear about Granddads taking out their own granddaughters in separate cars. It's pretty rare, right? (I remember seeing another story like that, but it was more than a few years back.) If it were common, newspapers wouldn't be reporting it.

So what else is exceptionally rare? Winning the lottery. And yet, someone wins the lottery nearly every week. Why? Lots and lots of trials. Given enough trials, a low-probability event will happen.

Well, this week, among the many thousands of unremarkable road fatalities, this time family members took each other out in separate cars, and it was sufficiently "human interest" for the media to pick up on it.

Your second story is pretty much the same thing. Lots of accidents happen. Most of the time, they're limited to one or two vehicles with relatively benign damage to their surroundings. And then given enough trials, you get something a bit more dramatic/serious. A bus going off a cliff. A 50-car pileup. A senile old man blundering onto a major freeway and (somehow) coming out without a scratch. An accident involving pressurized gas transportation that damages infrastructure.

What makes this a phenomenon is that it's a variant of confirmation bias. In experimental terms, it manifests in recording the hits and ignoring the misses. A (frequently deliberate) error you see constantly in parapsychology "research" and the "alternatives to science/reality" markets.

In society, it's a hard-to-avoid consequence of a commercial implementation of journalism. We'd much rather buy a paper that tells us about interesting things than one that reports all facts, no matter how dry, obvious, or repetitive. The sensational publications are the ones that survive.

These articles are an interesting set of coincidences (you're definitely betting right about that), but they're ultimately nothing more than coincidences.
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Last edited by Moose; 18-December-2007 at 06:28 PM. Reason: Clarification.
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Old 18-December-2007, 06:34 PM
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...These articles are an interesting set of coincidences (you're definitely betting right about that), but they're ultimately nothing more than coincidences.
I definately agree with your post... the astrology part was more tongue in cheek, because I'm sure many people will take that route.

After all... It's a full Mars isn't it? Wouldn't that mean more rare coincidences than a full moon?

Anyway...yes the relatives colliding have been in the news (I remotely remember husband/wife, bro/sis, twins)
But; these usually include some common situation that they are already reacting to that causes them to be on a common path to begin with. I'm not sure if this one is that way.
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Old 07-January-2008, 07:56 PM
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Besides the headline that sounds like a cliche....
Woman Drowns In Rain Barrel
Quote:
A woman drowned when she apparently tried to retrieve a kitten from a 55-gallon rain barrel at her home southeast of Santa Fe.
The reporter doesn't say the reason that the whole unfortunate chain of events started. Why did they feel the need to thaw the barrel?
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Old 07-January-2008, 08:13 PM
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Didn't want the freezing water to crack the barrel? Or perhapse they use the water? I don't know.

After I read that story this morning, I spent like 10 minutes on google images trying to find a good picture of a 55 gallon barrel with a person standing next to it so I could get a good idea of size. I can't figure out how she managed to fall in, or how she wasn't able to get out.

A) She would have had to fall in with her hands at her sides, which doesn't make sense if she was reaching in to retrieve the kitten.
B) Why was a 2/3rds-full 55 gallon bucket "tied to the door so that it wouldn't tip over"? It's not like they're light.

I don't know, I just really can't picture it.

ETA: Do you happen to know her age? I don't think the story I read stated it.
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Old 07-January-2008, 08:21 PM
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After I read that story this morning, I spent like 10 minutes on google images trying to find a good picture of a 55 gallon barrel with a person standing next to it so I could get a good idea of size.
did you find one?
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B) Why was a 2/3rds-full 55 gallon bucket "tied to the door so that it wouldn't tip over"? It's not like they're light.
...nor unstable, especially if it's frozen and not sloshing around.
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ETA: Do you happen to know her age? I don't think the story I read stated it.
Quote:
Santa Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano said 48-year-old Deborah Hill was found by her husband Sunday afternoon after he returned home from running errands.
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Old 07-January-2008, 08:26 PM
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Just sounds very fishey to me. And yes, I found a picture. It didn't even come up to the mans waist. Granted, he looked like he was tall, and barrels come in different shapes, but regardless, more than half one's body should be out, giving you weight you can use to lift yourself back out.

The article didn't make it sound like there's any suspicion, so I wonder if it had to do with her size/physical shape/whatever. I just can't imagine it.
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Old 07-January-2008, 09:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose View Post
When I was a kid, I could flip and catch a coin so that it would turn up whichever side I'd place it on my thumb. Not quite every time, but well beyond what chance should predict. It took months of practice (and I've since lost the ability), but I'd learned to rig the canonically random event.
Similar to juggling knives and other dangerous to catch objects. With enough practice, a consistent enough throw is developed to ensure not getting stuck.

Actually, it is the same as throwing knives or a hatchet at a target. The thrower just develops a consistent motion, so that the rotations are always the same, and knows the business end will be good for hurting someone at 10', 16', 22' and every 6 feet thereafter (as an example).

I remember as a young-en thinking those people were really amazing in their ability to stick the hatchet every time no matter the distance. Turns out they can stick it almost every time at certain specific distances.
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Old 08-January-2008, 01:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moose View Post
When I was a kid, I could flip and catch a coin so that it would turn up whichever side I'd place it on my thumb. Not quite every time, but well beyond what chance should predict. It took months of practice (and I've since lost the ability), but I'd learned to rig the canonically random event.
As an aside, I can do that. I have to look away when I place the coin on my thumb, or I'll know how it'll come out.
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Old 09-January-2008, 02:07 PM
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This one sounds like a liability lawsuit in the making.
I-4 Brush Fire Blamed For 50-Car Pileup, 3 Dead
Quote:
The series of crashes resulted from a deadly mix of fog and smoke that made for treacherous driving conditions in the predawn hours. Officials said the smoke drifted over I-4 from a controlled burn that was ignited on Tuesday.
I'd like to know more about this controlled burn. Why was it being done at night? What were the expected conditions?
I'm sure we'll get more details as the story unfolds, they are concentrating on the traffic mess right now.

But; the pictures are kind of strange. It looks like smoke above a snow covered ground. But the "snow" is fog.
I wonder why some of the smoke pictures acutally looks like a contrail instead of a "plume".
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Old 10-January-2008, 07:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fazor View Post
The article didn't make it sound like there's any suspicion, so I wonder if it had to do with her size/physical shape/whatever. I just can't imagine it.
The article says "Solano said Hill apparently was standing on something to reach down for the kitten when she slid in. Detectives said the kitten is alive, and most likely climbed out over Hill."

OK, she's dead, and the kitten is out. My question: how did they know the kitten was in the barrel? The kitten was wet? There are paw marks up her back? The husband said so? Were they afraid the kitten would tip over the barrel, and that's why they tied it up? How much insurance are we talking?
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