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Old 15-September-2008, 11:38 AM
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Default Is today black Monday?

There are a lot of jittery folks today. Anyone else extremely concerned?
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Old 15-September-2008, 12:29 PM
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I don't know.

It's not Black here ... it's a Bright day .. because it's PAYDAY !


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Old 15-September-2008, 12:30 PM
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I expect the markets here to take a dive, but they'll recover.
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Old 15-September-2008, 03:03 PM
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Globalisation is a grand idea, some financial institution in the USA declares bankruptcy and half way around the world in a lowly third world country the markets go crazy.

Yes we are also feeling the effects down here...
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Old 15-September-2008, 03:08 PM
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Re-post/double post.
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Old 15-September-2008, 03:23 PM
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We are feeling some effects down here in the form of a slight devaluation of stocks. However, in general the economy is growing as usual. WeŽve had 6% growth for the forth month in a row, and there is no sign of a slowdown. Our economy relies heavily on the internal market, in which power of purchase is steadily rising, along with foreign investment. Economists here are unanimous in that weŽll not feel a big impact of a possible US/Europe recession.
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Old 15-September-2008, 03:41 PM
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http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4526#more

and there's this
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Old 15-September-2008, 04:09 PM
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No it’s not “Black Monday” it should be called “Lights On Monday”.

It’s about time some of these companies and their CEOs feel the effects of their actions. The heads of Fannie and Freddie and Lehman are pounding the pavement for new positions as they should be. Lets hope some of this mud sticks to their resumes instead of running off as it did in the past. It seems the new generation of financial big wigs are learning the lessons of the older generation.

In the long run things will be better for all of us.
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Old 15-September-2008, 04:18 PM
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Yes, I am also extremely concerned. I don't know all the details about how the real estate markets work, but it does seem like there is absolutely no reason to buy a property right now, since it is very likely that the same property will be worth far less next month or next year. For the last 18 months, more and more became worth less than the mortgages, and as a result, some people simply walked away from the mortgage. I don't see this changing in the near future. As this puts a sever damper on the economy, we will soon see a period of extended deflation. Once we get to a situation where people expect lower prices to continue, then economic investment (purchases of new equipment, buildings, etc) will cease because it is cheaper to wait than to invest. Thus starts the viscious cycle known as an economic depression. I think we are close to one already. Whether it is as bad as the one in the 1930's remains to be seen.
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Old 15-September-2008, 04:22 PM
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Anyone with any sense has given up on the U.S. as a global concern and has now concentrated their wealth in Euros or Yen.
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Old 15-September-2008, 08:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by samkent View Post
No it’s not “Black Monday” it should be called “Lights On Monday”.

It’s about time some of these companies and their CEOs feel the effects of their actions. The heads of Fannie and Freddie and Lehman are pounding the pavement for new positions as they should be. Lets hope some of this mud sticks to their resumes instead of running off as it did in the past. It seems the new generation of financial big wigs are learning the lessons of the older generation.

In the long run things will be better for all of us.
Some of those CEO's and CFO's should be "pounding the pavement" of the prison exercise yard, during their one hour a day out of the cell.
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Old 15-September-2008, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Trebuchet View Post
Some of those CEO's and CFO's should be "pounding the pavement" of the prison exercise yard, during their one hour a day out of the cell.
Clearly you don't understand the point of the judicial system.

It's there to put the poor in prison, and only fine the rich - if it is absolutely unavoidable that it has to do so.

Someone can get put away for 20 years for stealing $500.

But someone who steals $500 million will rarely see a single day inside a cell.
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Old 15-September-2008, 08:34 PM
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My high school history teacher used to say that a depression the scale of the 1930s would be impossible today because of all the regulation that has developed since. It seems like new rules are in place due to energy problems and globalization, among other things, so I'm not so certain. It does seem like some signs of a depression have been building up for the last couple years.
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Old 15-September-2008, 08:39 PM
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Quote:
In the long run things will be better for all of us.
Depends on your horizon. In the long run we'll all be dead.
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Old 15-September-2008, 08:39 PM
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"I'm melting, I'm melting! O-o-oh, my 401(k)'s, my real estate! What a world, what a world! O!"

Edited to add: Fair is fair. Because of this thread I can't get Steely Dan's "Black Friday" out of my mind.
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Old 15-September-2008, 09:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by V_Zhd View Post
My high school history teacher used to say that a depression the scale of the 1930s would be impossible today because of all the regulation that has developed since. It seems like new rules are in place due to energy problems and globalization, among other things, so I'm not so certain. It does seem like some signs of a depression have been building up for the last couple years.
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Old 16-September-2008, 12:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drunk Vegan View Post
Clearly you don't understand the point of the judicial system.

It's there to put the poor in prison, and only fine the rich - if it is absolutely unavoidable that it has to do so.

Someone can get put away for 20 years for stealing $500.

But someone who steals $500 million will rarely see a single day inside a cell.
Oh I understand it. That's why I said "should". When the CFO of the company I work for conspired with a government official to defraud the nation of hundreds of millions of dollars, they got only a few months each. Of course they also got fired, which to them was probably worse.
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Old 16-September-2008, 02:27 AM
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I had four hours of very hard homework, so it seemed pretty black, but that's just me.
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Old 16-September-2008, 05:48 AM
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In fairness, banquo, we'll know more on Tuesday. Then we can watch professional coin flippers in action once again.

At 10PM PST, the Nikkei and Hang Seng markets are down 5 and 6%.
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Old 16-September-2008, 06:56 AM
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When I saw the headline, all I could think was, "There goes our retirement." I'm glad my husband and I aren't thinking about retiring anytime soon.
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Old 16-September-2008, 08:12 AM
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Event horizon---what event horizon?
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Old 16-September-2008, 02:29 PM
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Exclamation

markets open in a few minutes
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Old 16-September-2008, 02:36 PM
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Our paper today headlined it as "Bleak Monday". A bit milder than black.
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Old 16-September-2008, 03:05 PM
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And if we're bad we'll all go to Heck when we kick off.
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Old 16-September-2008, 06:46 PM
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NINJA...No income,no job or assets!

And they got mortgages!

Well I suppose if the World goes mad around
you it seems normal.

Strange but I thought buisness people normally
try bamboosling Joe Public into giving up their
cash. I did not know big institutions did it
to each other.

Collaterised debt obligation!

Asset backed security!

etc ect..my aunt Fanny...
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Old 16-September-2008, 09:19 PM
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When I saw the headline, all I could think was, "There goes our retirement." I'm glad my husband and I aren't thinking about retiring anytime soon.
I am.
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Old 17-September-2008, 04:12 AM
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NINJA...No income,no job or assets!

And they got mortgages!
Here's an article from way back in 1999 about this very thing:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...15/ai_57748148

There was strong political pressure behind this easy credit, as existing standards were seen to be discriminatory against minorities. You'll see various loudmouths in political office pointing fingers and screaming "predatory lending", when they themselves were encouraging what they now call predatory lending.

Anyone with any sense knew this day would come, but back then everyone was flying high and didn't worry about anything beyond the next quarterly report. Here's one from 2003:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...gewanted=print

There was proposal to tighten up regulation of Fannie and Freddie. Note the quotes from some of the loudmouths that it would hurt affordable housing. Those reforms were killed with the help of both parties (key members heavily lobbied by Fannie and Freddie).

Again, they all knew this was coming years ago, but did nothing.

-Richard
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Old 17-September-2008, 05:21 AM
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We know who all lost their money, but who (beyond the execs) all gained, and by what mechanism(s)?
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Old 17-September-2008, 05:52 AM
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A lot of people thought they were making money..... on paper. Then the balloon deflated. And many time the books were cooked to make it look even better on paper, especially for the CEO and other big shot executives whose pay was tied to earnings.

There will be investigations. IIRC, the Lehman chief got about a $100M golden parachute for his trouble of running his company in the ground. Much of that was in stock, and the question to investigate is if he dumped it before it went belly up. If so that could land him jail.

-Richard
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Old 17-September-2008, 06:49 AM
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Yes, the media is quite good at spotlighting the main players' individual excesses, but are there also un-named individuals, or whole companies or organizations that profited from this?
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