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Reading about history of science is usually about a history of succes, often presenting it as a very straight "highway of progress" (this is at least what one person remember from, admittedly, usually "popular" science texts).
Is there any "history of scientific failures" as some sort of counterweight? (Of course You may deny that such a history could have anything interesting to say, if you deny any such failures, but that may be questionable). Of course, examples as "geocentrism", "Lysenko", and other are well known, but perhaps there are other, even more relevant to todays "mainstream"? (they can be both seen as "special" or even "exotic" examples, and some may not se much relevance to contemporary science). I think such a history, if written by the right author, should have a chance to be read by "ordinary people" (it should have a chance to be an interesting story, either written as a "history" or as a novel). |
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Indeed it does. History is littered with scientific mistakes and lies. Mistakes? The Challenger disaster I'm sure could be counted in this category. Lies? Well I'm on rocky ground with the moderators, but certain people taking until 1992 to officially recognise that Gallileo was right and they were wrong could fall in to this category.
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Of all the things I've ever lost, I miss my mind the most! |
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As soon as one becomes immersed in the details of specific scientific areas, you find lots of stuff in the literature. In one of my own areas of expertise, defect mechanisms in crystals, the literature is full of old ideas that newer evidence shows are wrong. But to 99.999999% of the planet, it is of absolutely no interest.
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To me, a history of failure would be interesting if it focused on failures where in hindsight, it would seem that the players had all the tools in place to succeed, but failed by some kind of mistake. This allows us to learn how to avoid mistakes by understanding their nature. Failures that occured because the data available was incomplete or faulty don't count-- that's not very interesting, it is a natural part of science to adjust to new data.
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Why should such a history of failure interest anyone?
1 erhaps there are some good stories (i guess there is).2:As a "test" or reminder that there is such a risk of failure - perhaps even getting some indication of how big it is. Of course it may be that some disciplines have the "large picture", and a right one too, while for other fields there still may be room for doubt about important points. (examples of the first may be found in geography, where questions about landmasses are solved). |
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Also, while Lewis, Clarke, and Vasco da Gama (as an example) are the ones remembered today, both Rocky Mountains and African west coast are littered with bones of their less lucky predecessors and/or competitors.
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Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint. |
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There is at least one journal today that published basically failures: The Journal of Negative Results in Biomedicine http://www.jnrbm.com/
It appears that their main goal is to create a record of what has been done so that the next researchers come along and don't make the same mistake. |
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Still, there is a well-known principle called "positive outcome bias", where scientific researchers are much more likely to publish positive results than negative ones. I would probably publish in that journal, but not until after I get tenure. I am not sure how the tenure comittee would react to publications in that sort of journal.
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I met this wonderful girl at Macy's. She was buying clothes and I was putting Slinkies on the escalator. -Steven Wright My Website: The Black Cat's Web Page |
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Well the geocentristic idea isn't a failure, it's wrong but not a failure. Neigher was it bad science, not begin with. It became bad sience when it was defended after a better idea (heliocentrism) had been showed to be more likely. The same principle are true for a lots of old now to proven to be wrong scientific teories. Our ancestors where no idiots (well some where, just like people today).
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A "single" example that comes instantly to mind of historical "bad science" is Blondlot and his N-Rays.
The Skeptic's Dictionary has a page about him. His was basically a case of a man who wanted to believe so much, that he ended up fooling himself.
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But I'm not saying most research is like this, I'm just saying this is a good way to make sure you get a positive experimental result. There is probably a law that says, the higher the chance of getting a null result even though you've used a well-designed experiment, the more important the research, because the more unknown is the phenomenon under investigation. That must be a significant paradox for those seeking tenure... |
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For instance, a single sentence from my Principles of neuroscience textbook: Quote:
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I met this wonderful girl at Macy's. She was buying clothes and I was putting Slinkies on the escalator. -Steven Wright My Website: The Black Cat's Web Page |
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Actually, the field I had most in mind is psychology, or one of the "soft" sciences, not biomedicine or biophysics. Those latter fields have spectacular amounts of jargon, but it passes the test: there is no common-vernacular equivalent. Thus the jargon is not translatable. In terms of your example, the real test would be to ask ten different practitioners to do what you just did. If they all came out nearly the same, then the test is passed. If they come out quite different, it is failed. I have seen many cases in soft science where I would expect the latter, though in "hard" science it would tend to rather be the former, and this may be one of the fundamental distinctions. I agree that jargon is usually good, in the right audience, since good use of jargon reduces ambiguity. But bad use intentionally generates it, as a kind of smokescreen. That of course happens all the time in pseudoscience, which may enter into the tenure process in some cases but hopefully that's not really what we are talking about. Nevertheless, I have seen many soft-science offerings of the latter stripe, and once it was really sifted through, the result was indeed common sense. But no offense to soft scientists, most are not this way, and the fields are simply a whole lot more difficult to obtain a "clean" result that was not already obvious to a population whose whole lives are one giant psychology experiment.
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I have a great book called "The Measure of All Things" that details the development of the metric system, spending a lot of time on the failures that went along with that. It's a really good political history lesson, too, in addition to being about the basic units of modern science.
In artificial intelligence journals, especially in a lot of the earlier papers, you run across results that are not so good. I think that they publish those because it's nice to see very precisely the boundary at which a system is complex enough to solve some problem. According to this link http://www.acfnewsource.org/science/...e_results.html the negative results journal is focussed on reporting results that challenge existing beliefs, not necessarily experiments that failed. I don't like that idea, because you should be able to publish a positive and a negative result about an idea in the same journal, so long as the experiment is valid. The only journals that don't publish (potentially) contradictory things like that tend to be the fringe journals that support a particular cause -- things like "Journal of the American Society of Homeopathy." (I don't know if that's a real journal, or if they really don't publish negative results if it is, but that's the kind of publication that would ignore or refuse to publish contradictory results.) |
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