I could be way off base with this, but I'll put it out here anyway.

While the global warming/greenhouse itself certainly will cause temperatures to rise, I think the real issue of climate change on the local/regional level is this:

Will Global Warming shift the global pressure systems substantially poleward?

This is important when you realize just how central the pressure systems are to both the globe's and especially a region's weather system. Here's a basic rundown of semi-permanent pressure systems, all centered over oceans (barring the wintertime Siberian High, which in part causes the Asian Monsoons)

If the pressure systems don't shift in response to a warmer atmosphere, then I think it more difficult to predict how rainfall patterns will be affected (although I hazzard to guess that wet areas may get even rainer, with dry areas getting even drier; but i'm no climatologist). I do know, though, these systems are critically important, as shown in the list of pressure belt systems below.

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List of major ocean-based pressure systems
Equatorial Low Moves throughout the year within 15 or so degrees of the equator. Warm rushing equatorward from both hemispheres forces warm air to rise quickly, creating a huge chain of clouds and t-storms around the planet (in fact, at its northward extent in W. Africa, tropical storms originate in part from this system - also called the Intertropical Convergence Zone).

Subtropical Highs Generally on the east side of oceans, average location is around 30 degrees latitude (moves poleward in the local summer and equatorward in the winter). Responsible for most of the world's nonpolar deserts and dry and wet seasons (except on east side of continents, where it pumps moisture in from the sea)

Subpolar Lows These are located around 60 degrees latitude. They're created by warm air from the temperate zone hitting cold air coming from the poles. These are cold windy and rainy systems that bring cool rainy weather to the west coast midlatitude areas. They have little to no effect on continental and east coast mid-latitude areas.

Polar High Cold Dry air sinking at or near the poles. These move little, if at all. They're responsible for Antarctica and Arctic desert areas.

Recently in Nature:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal...ture01487.html

There is a dearth of info in this area on the net but the data is certainly out there.

Kind regards
Matt

Good point, good thread. I think the Hadley cell will expand, displacing the subtropical high to higher latitudes.

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TY for the link winesky, there's definitely a shortage of how it will affect pressure cell locations. I'll go to the SMU library or the public one and look it up there. I don't want to pay US$30 for it though. The part about the strengthening westerlies in the N. Atlantic looks interesting.


Argos, do you mean the latitudinal width of the cells will increase? I think, but not sure, that pressure cell location has to do with the combination of the earth's a) rotation speed and b) the axial tilt; rather than atmospheric temperature. I could be wrong about it but, that's why I started the thread in the first place - to see if pressure cell location will be affected.

It likely was affected during the Ice Ages,but that's because ice covered the poleward latitudes. Ice being of an intrinsically different temperature and reflectivity from land and liquid water, naturally would push pressure cells equatorward. I'm not certain how a warmer earth would affect the cells (though the abstract did say strengthening of the High Pressure systems in the Sahara-Mediterranean-N. Atlantic and weakening of the subpolar lows in the N. Atlantic and N. Pacific. - which would strengthen the N. Atlantic's westerlies.)

What I do know for certain is this - if pressure systems themselves shift poleward, then there will indeed be the radical shifts so many people worry about.

Does that mean British and Irish wines will be a good long-term investment -- with Wales' landscape resembling today's Tuscany :P

Well, AFAIK, the reason why it extends only ot the 30´s is an open question. But it is safe to assume that the main driver is the atmospheric heating.

This article that I just found features a similar idea.

http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/520675/

Further than that, Blackpool is going to become a real destination for vacations.

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What brings us together is stronger than what pulls us apart

For our (western) hemisphere, start remaking the the Mama's and Papa's song - "Vancouver Island dreamin, on such a winter's day" (or Patagonia Dreamin', too, for that matter)

'Patagonia Dreaming' fits perfectly in the metric of the song.

The question is: who´s going to have a winter day?

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What brings us together is stronger than what pulls us apart