In 1999 Kurzweil predicted the following would occur in/by 2009. Think how many of these things sounded nutty ten years ago:

1. Work groups are dispersed. People are successfully working together despite living in different places. (My job, among many others)

2. Average household has more than 100 computers -- that is, chips, -- most of which are embedded in appliances, entertainment and telephone systems, automobiles and even key chains. (Count all the colored lights in your house. And yes, USB on my keychain has a chip, and more memory than most computers in 1999)

3. Household robots have emerged but are not yet fully accepted. (Pretty good description of Roomba/Scooba)

4. Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel. They allow you to sit back and relax after your car's smart cruise control locks onto road's sensors. (Failed on this one)

5. Local roads though are still conventional. (grin)

6. Privacy has emerged as a major political issue. (Yes)

7. There is a growing anti-technology neo-Luddite movement. (Yes)

8. There is a continuing concern with an underclass being left behind by a lack of skill, although the size of this underclass appears to be stable, since most people seem to be keeping up. (This is just spookily accurate)

9. Most visual art -- especially performance art, photography an video -- are collaboration between human and their software. (Not so much performance art, but photography an video are definitely getting there)

10. Human musicians routinely jam with computer-generated musicians. (Partial fail. Happens, but very rarely)

11. Those who wish to create music no longer absolutely need the fine finger coordination of traditional pianists and guitarists. (True, but tools which make it possible are still expensive and not widespread)

12. There is a surge of interest in new "air" controllers in which you create music by moving your hands, feet and other body parts. (Wiiiii!!!)

13. Virtual reality is convincing in terms of what you see and hear, although transmitting sense of touch is still rocky. (Off by a few years. But is getting close)

14. In fact, creation of virtual reality environments is a form being addressed by artist. (Not yet)

15. Wars are decided by those who have the best and most secure computers. (Would have been true if wars were still fought between countries. Failure in predicting geopolitics, not technology)

16. Most conflicts are not between nations but between nations and terrorists. (Entirely true, although at odds with #15. Failure to fully imagine asymmetrical warfare)

17. The greatest threat to national security comes from bioengineered weapons. (Hard to say)

18. Cancer and heart disease mortality is being reduced by bioengineering. (Partial failure. It is being reduced, but mostly by other means)

19. There is serious speculation as to whether computers will ever be conscious. (In all fairness, there were already serious speculations on this topic in 1999)

If most of these points now seem to you "well, duh!", I repeat -- think of how things were in 1999, and how would all of them look to you then.

With this kind of record, I am inclined to take Kurzweil's predictions seriously.

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Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint.

No, even thinking of how things were in 1999, I'm still calling, "Well, duh!"

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

I don't take Ray Kurzweil seriously. He has come up with too many non-sequiturs. Just because the size of my kitten has doubled over the last three months doesn't mean that after ten years it will be the size of the galaxy. However, I do agree with the general idea that the pace of technological improvement is increasing and we will eventually get to a point where it is just silly or what Kurzweil calls the singularity. I'm just not quite as optimistic about the timing. I think that at best we will only advance half as fast as he thinks we will, pushing back the date of the singularity by months.

agreed - not one of those forecasts seemed outrageous in 1999 ...

a few - like intelligent roads, medical bioengineering could be called ambitious ... delays are more the result of budgetary constraints and governmental checks (red tape) than a lack of will or ability ...

some, that you've listed as fail, depend somewhat on your definition of success -
eg -
even performance art, if you accept computer controlled laser shows, etc, as collaboration ...

computerised drum machines, etc ... not so much in performance, but home or garage jamming? happens plenty ...

Actually very widespread as pc or stand-alone equipment programs ... just not guaranteed to produce very good (commercial) music ...

still true - if you accept that the conduct of wars (even the decision to fight or not fight) is not limited to state-run armed conflicts over territory ...

but none of the forecasts were terribly insightful in 1999 ...
no more so than "wars in the 21st Century will be fought over control of water supplies, and not just oil" (can't remember who said that ...)

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If Kurzweil predicted society and technology as well as you seem to imply, he could buy Bill Gates 10 times over.

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I would also agree that those prognostications are pretty mild, incremental forecasts. It's easy to see ten years ahead, harder to see twenty and 50+ ... forgetaboutit!

But Kurzweil has made far more outlandish predictions, like living for ever (in his lifetime) and geometric progression of intelligence which he calls the singularity. We we all be replaced by super intelligent artificial general intelligences (AGI).

There is a singularity summit every year where various futurists and AGI developers get together and talk about this stuff. I've been following it for a few years now, and it is rather fascinating. Here are some links to the 2008 summit speeches (2007).

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Conscious reasoning is an attempt to justify the choice after it has been made.

Actually Cran, that still falls under the ancient auspice of "The better organized army always defeats the lesser organized army." Sun Tsu and Julius Ceasar thought that. I'll take your word on matters of orogeny and I'll take their word on matters martial.

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In your rush to call everyone "entrenched" or closed-minded or "limited" you fail to note that the "limit" here has a very natural boundary: that point at which the evidence stops. - JayUtah

Science fiction was never meant to be an educational tool. - Editor Amazing Tales

Ditto- these are not extraordinary predictions that have come true. These are almost all fairly obvious, or wrong. I'd say there were 100 chips in my house 10 years ago. I doubt there are that many MORE now, they're just more powerful.

Nothing about smart phones, web based social networking, things like You Tube or Google Earth - things that really are remarkable developments in the last 10 years.

My feelings about Kurzweil's predictions have always been mixed; for every one he gets right he overlooks or underestimates another. His predictions not only ignore the (IMO) zero progress we've made towards AI (which I'm skeptical of ever achieving, anyway) and cyborg technology, but also a powerful technological inertia that puts the brakes on possible breakthroughs.

For instance, there's been a lot of serious talk about replacing the standard commercial plane design with flying wings, which is the most efficient model. Yet, none of these prognostications gives target dates before the 2030s, even though if we *wanted* to we could go full-bore towards this target much sooner. As for cybernetic technology: it's one thing to enjoy your Bluetooth, quite another to submit to accessing the Internet through a cortical implant. OnStar is one thing, letting your car drive you is another (and think of the liability mess if there's an accident!). In sum: there seems to always be a huge gap between the possible and the probable, even when the latter is within reach. I'd be very surprised to see the least of Kurzweil's most extravagant predictions come true before mid-century.

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"Call me old-fashioned, but I think fire is magic. And it scares me a lot."

--The State

I'll just mention that bionic ear implants now come with bluetooth so grandpa can bop to iTunes headset free.

Not sure if video-games-as-art would count, but at least one artist, Eddo Stern, as done this.
He did express interest in creating massive virtual environments to make an artistic/political statement.

no argument there, BD - I simply broadened the definitions "wars" of "army" from that implied in the OP's comment - cold, economic and trade wars, for instance ...

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In which way is it more efficient than the current designs? Certainly not in packaging.

I can't agree with that. A lot of progress is being made in brain simulation - not just conventional neural networks, but detailed neural simulation and brain-like connectivity. An example of this is IBM's Blue Brain project and whole brain emulation. Predictions based on Moore's Law cpu growth rates has the emergence of Artificial General Intelligences in about thirty years. I wouldn't rule it out.

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Conscious reasoning is an attempt to justify the choice after it has been made.

So far as I understand, there's a difference between cyborg and cybernetic, and I'd argue that we've made a great deal of progress in cyborg technology if you include prosthesis in that.

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

cyborg is a contraction of cybernetic organism ...

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Check out this talk on Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) as a basis for a new AI paradigm, presented by Jeff Hawkins - fascinating stuff.

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Conscious reasoning is an attempt to justify the choice after it has been made.

That was my spontaneous thought after having glanced through the list. Well, actually while still glancing through the list.

I'm sure anybody here could come up will an analogous list for 2019.

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Ach, mein Sinn, wo willst du endlich hin, wo soll ich mich erquicken? Bleib' ich hier, oder wünsch' ich mir Berg und Hügel auf den Rücken?
Bei der Welt ist gar kein Rat, und im Herzen steh'n die Schmerzen meiner Missetat, weil der Knecht den Herrn verleugnet hat.

Speaking of trade and economic wars I once moved the household of the CEO of a major corporate security firm. His cynical not-quite a joke was "your computer sercurity shouldn't cost more than it would take to bribe an executive secretary." As he claims thats how 80% of corporate secrets are stolen.

Seems simple when you put it out in the open like that.

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In your rush to call everyone "entrenched" or closed-minded or "limited" you fail to note that the "limit" here has a very natural boundary: that point at which the evidence stops. - JayUtah

Science fiction was never meant to be an educational tool. - Editor Amazing Tales

re Dr. Who:
Flying wings are nothing to look at, but they are the most fuel-efficient design possible; as well all know, the airline industry is notorious at bean-counting. It has its own problems, to be sure, but the allure has tempted commercial engineers for a long time.

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"Call me old-fashioned, but I think fire is magic. And it scares me a lot."

--The State

I take him seriously too, as seriously as you can take someone who states the obvious. Thinking back, a lot of this was near-term, had already occured, or was predicted to be not that far ahead.

Windows for Workgroups (win 3.11) came in in the early 90s. Telecommuting was already practiced in some locations. Call centers were already looking at data just imput by agents in another center. I think there were already jobs going to India. If he meant that they all are, or mostly are, then it hasn't happened.

Depending on what you mean by "computer", then sure, computer chips are ubiquitous even then, hence the concern about Y2K back in 1999.

Fair enough.

This is America, why make the road smart, when we can make the car smart. GPS kinda did this, but no one took the initiative to actually try to make a car drive itself with it... for good reason: deer, pedestrians, idiots, and insurance.

Will this ever not be the case?

It was back in the days of the US Constitutional Convention, hence its inclusion in the Bill of Rights.

Props to Ray for having heard of the Amish and Mennonites.

This has been true since sabotage was done by saboteurs who were those who used actual sabots.

I sold software in the mid-90s that was interactive video-games and movies all in one. But I doubt very much that it will ever be "most visual art" as most artists are venal and want their art to be left the way it is and not messed with, so as to get their point across, scoff at those who don't get it, and survive them as some form of immortality.

I recall that synthesizers from the 80s and 90s came with pre-made beats and rhythms. I had computer programs from the mid-90s that did something similar. Natalie Cole had already but worked into an audio-video production with her dead dad in the early-mid 90s. If he means virtual reality or some other sort of audio-visual immersive experience, then perhaps he get props for predicting "Guitar Hero".

Not. MIDI tools and software have been around since at least the mid-90s and aren't THAT expensive. Most musicians want to actually perform music because they get more of a rush and more money from live performances than just studio recordings. That's the difference between and artist and a mere technician, I think.

I seem to recall that air-controllers for controlling a computer at presentations were already in use or development 10 years ago. It's not a far leap to connect this to music that is made on the computer. If he meant virtual instruments, then he is probably far off on this one, or maybe the Wii does this?

Increasing visual resolution is not that big a prediction, as it was already happening and surround sound already existed. Touch is a bit off for lots of reasons already explored and explained by lots of other writers before 1999.

True enough, but that was already happening in the mid 90s. I remember VRML, does anyone else? People who make maps for the games of the late 90s (e.g. Unreal Tournament) could be considered artists.

True enough, if both sides use computers and specialized communications technology. Terrorists might use their communications doctrines to prevent interception, but if intercepted still stand a good chance of being discovered by the side wih the bigger computer. Then again, wars are not always decided by the ones with the military advantage, but by those with more perseverence. If he's thinking of competing skynets, then he's got it wrong so far.

As if terrorism is a new concept. It's been around for ages... especially with the long term trend to refer to all insurgents and irregular combatants as terrorists.

This has been true since medieval and ancient times when it was realized that plagues can be spread to one's enemies. This is especially true if we consider the threat as being to "national security" versus "life of the population." Nothing new here.

Not sure what he means by this.

There has been serious speculation since the 50s.

Well... um.... duh.

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"What you think you thought you saw you did not see." Agent J, MiB - Manhatten Bureau

Does anyone else remember a TV show from Fox called VR5? It would have aired in about '95 or so--I could look it up, but I'm feeling lazy. It was on in the death hour before The X-Files, when The X-Files aired on Fridays at nine. It made some interesting speculations about virtual reality, hence the title, really.

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

Since I have had long contact with Amish and Mennonites (many of my mother's family are Mennonites, and growing up in small-town Pennsylvania, I couldn't avoid contact with Amish people), I must take exception to your characterization of them as Luddites. Luddites destroyed technology, the Mennonites, and to a greater extent the Amish, simply don't use it.

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"Everybody's playing the Game
But nobody's rules are the same
Nobody's on nobody's side." (Tim Rice)
No matter how strong, or brave, or pure of heart you may be; sometimes the dragon wins!

The theremin has been around since the 1930s...

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(As you can guess from the location, English is not my native language.)

Re Gillianren:
I remember VR 5, that surreal relic of the days when it looked like immersive virtual reality was going to be the wave of the future (remember that travesty titled The Lawnmower Man?).

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"Call me old-fashioned, but I think fire is magic. And it scares me a lot."

--The State

Immersive virtual reality still has a chance to be the wave of the future; it's just gotten a slow start.

You mean the charming short story that doesn't mention VR at all? Because the movie you seem to be mentioning doesn't exist!

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"

Fair enough.

If Kurzweil is thinking of ELF types, then they have been around for a while.

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"What you think you thought you saw you did not see." Agent J, MiB - Manhatten Bureau

But that's a real instrument, not a virtual one.. but I'm not sure what Kurzweil's point was at.

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"What you think you thought you saw you did not see." Agent J, MiB - Manhatten Bureau

Or maybe this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VR.5

I meant "The Lawnmower Man" versus the movie Stephen King sued to get his name taken off of, but thanks for the link, which I was too lazy to find myself.

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Gillian

"Now everyone was giving her that kind of look UFOlogists get when they suddenly say, 'Hey, if you shade your eyes you can see it is just a flock of geese after all.'"

"You can't erase icing."

"I can't believe it doesn't work! I found it on the internet, man!"