Perfect Disaster: Solar Storm

SSJPabs · #1 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 03:27 AM

So I'm watching discovery and they're talking about a theoretical solar storm that knocks out huge parts of the electrical grid. Where can I go learn more about the catostrophic ones, not just the usual ones we get?

Thanks!

01101001 · #2 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 04:29 AM

How about the "perfect solar storm" of 1859?

NASA: Solar Superstorm

Quote:

In scientific circles where solar flares, magnetic storms and other unique solar events are discussed, the occurrences of September 1-2, 1859, are the star stuff of legend. Even 144 years ago, many of Earth's inhabitants realized something momentous had just occurred. Within hours, telegraph wires in both the United States and Europe spontaneously shorted out, causing numerous fires, while the Northern Lights, solar-induced phenomena more closely associated with regions near Earth's North Pole, were documented as far south as Rome, Havana and Hawaii, with similar effects at the South Pole.
[...]
"The question I get asked most often is, 'Could a perfect space storm happen again, and when?'" added Tsurutani. "I tell people it could, and it could very well be even more intense than what transpired in 1859. As for when, we simply do not know," he said.

Maha Vailo · #3 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 04:39 AM

Suppose a solar storm of the magnitude of the 1859 one (or even greater!) were to happen to our modern society. How would humanity adapt, and how long would it take for us to recover?

- Maha Vailo

01101001 · #4 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 04:56 AM

While we have the disadvantage of more reliance on electrical gizmos, we should have the advantage of a warning.

Space.com: Speed Limit Found For Solar Storms

Quote:

Potentially disruptive solar storms can't reach Earth in less than half a day, scientists have determined.

That means operators of vulnerable satellites, airline officials and power grid managers can expect several hours of warning for any electrical disturbance shot from the Sun.
[...]
"The faster the CME, the more potentially destructive it can be, so for a worst-case scenario, we now know we have at least 12 hours to take preventative measures," according to Nat Gopalswamy of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.

NOAA Space Weather Scales has a rating scale for geomagnetic and solar radiation storms that includes the effects that might be expected. One such as 1859, though, might seem to be off the scale.

Wolverine · #5 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 06:35 AM

Moved from Bad Astronomy Stories to Small Media at Large.

Maha Vailo · #6 (**permalink**) 20-March-2006, 06:06 PM

But seriously folks, if a massive solar flare of the magnitude of the 1859 one were to hit our modern society, would it result in years-long global blackouts and satellites falling from the sky in flaming balls as per the Discovery Channel special? Or what would be the results? How long would it take for the world to recover?

- Maha Vailo

Tunga · #7 (**permalink**) 19-October-2007, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maha Vailo

But seriously folks, if a massive solar flare of the magnitude of the 1859 one were to hit our modern society, would it result in years-long global blackouts and satellites falling from the sky in flaming balls as per the Discovery Channel special? Or what would be the results? How long would it take for the world to recover?

- Maha Vailo

The Solar Storm Threat Analysis at http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/SSTA.pdf describes the effect from a massive solar storm.

The Solar Storm Disaster Preparedness Plan at http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/SSDPP.pdf describes preparedness and recovery from a massive solar storm. The main threat to civilization would be a long-term (months/year) electrical blackout covering a wide area due to the destruction of large rare very high voltage power transformers with long lead-times for replacement.

Forecasting Solar Storms in Solar Cycle 24 and 25 at http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/...rmForecast.pdf forecast the probability window for such events.

Tunga · #8 (**permalink**) 09-January-2009, 06:54 PM

It looks like the National Academy of Science came to the same conclusion that I did about the scope of the threat from a massive solar storm.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,478024,00.html

A massive solar storm could sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people and these outages could take months to fix.

Maha Vailo · #9 (**permalink**) 14-January-2009, 12:22 AM

So, if a massive solar storm does knock out certain parts of the electrical grid for months or a year, what would be the effects on society and civilization? Would anyone starve, for instance? How much and what kind of supplies would I need to keep myself from starving or going bored or crazy?

- Maha Vailo

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