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  #91 (permalink)  
Old 08-June-2006, 04:30 AM
TomT TomT is offline
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Originally Posted by James_Digriz
The molecular weight of C02 is double that of air. I didn't know this. Therefore most of the C02 on the planet is at ground level with a lot of it being disolved in the oceans.
Gases diffuse so that the concentration of any one gas is essentially the same at all altititudes. At least they don't exist in layers according to molecular weight.
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  #92 (permalink)  
Old 08-June-2006, 05:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Van Rijn
I absolutely agree. However, it is a really good argument for not having Al Gore do a documentary on global warming. Here is a controversial, extremely partisan politician who is doing a documentary on a subject where politics is already too big a factor. Wonderful. Why don't we have a George Bush documentary? (After he gets out of office, of course.)
Bush? HaHaHaHaHa! (I realize you're joking, but its disturbing to think that there are some who would read that suggestion with a straight face.) Bush doesn't have the education let alone the concern for fellow human beings.
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Last edited by Chip; 08-June-2006 at 05:43 AM.
  #93 (permalink)  
Old 08-June-2006, 09:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Digriz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fram
But the carbon dioxode emitted by us is a surplus, and it turns out that it is (for the most part) not reabsorbed, thereby increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere year after year (now some 35% increase). Some other greenhouse gases (methane) are even worse.
And 2.5 % of the greenhouse effect means 0.75° C warming. This is in some 150 years, and the human emissions are only increasing. Small percentages can be serious enough to consider them and look at the results.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, currently only 350 parts per million have been over 18 times higher in the past at a time when cars, factories and power stations did not exist — levels rise and fall without mankind's help.
But now you are talking about 400 to 600 million years ago. Pangaea wasn't even around back then. Conditions were completely different, as were the lifeforms. We don't know what caused the rise and fall of the CO2 levels then, because we have simply not enough information, but I don't see how it has any significance to our current situation. We do know what causes the rise now, and we do know that the current rise has taken us to a level that is clearly higher than anything in the past 500,000 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Digriz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fram
This has been discussed before. There is a difference between the margin of error on a single measurement (which can be big), and the margin of error you have on the average of loads of measurements. The latter is much much smaller, and is clearly below the temperature rise that is measured.
To put it simply: when temperature readings are +_ 2 degrees, then any one thermometer can be systematically reading two degrees too high, or too low. But the chance that all of them are reading systematically two degrees too high or too low is virtually null. By averaging them, you highly increase the precision.
Or we can look at accurate and representative temperature measurements from satellites and balloons which show that the planet has cooled significantly in the last 2 or 3 years. We have lost in 18 months 15% of the claimed warming that took over 100 years to appear. Part of the error is probably from ground station reading inflated by the Urban Heat Island effect.
In what way are these measurements more accurate than the ones you rejected at first because of the margin of error? Double standard?
They don't meaasure the same thing, by the way, so a difference in them does not indicate an "error" in either of them. Satellite and ballon measurements measure the troposphere temperature, not the surface temperature. Of course, it is the surface temperature that has the most immediate impact on us.
As for the 15% loss in 18 months: I don't know your source, so I can hardly comment on it. But for a rise of 0.6° (+- 0.2°) in a century, this means that your anecdotical last year and a half is 0.09 (+- 0.03°) cooler. And this is evidence of what? That the satellite and balloon thermometers are extremely accurate? That the temperature does not lineary or exponentially rise year after year? Something else?
No idea what you try to show with this, but it has no significance. 5 year trends are a minimum, and 10 year trends are better to discuss the climate. Yearly (or 18 months) figures to disprove GW are not more interesting or convincing than the use of one hurricane to prove GW.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Digriz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fram
Of course, as CO2 is only one of the greenhouse gases, greenhouse gases are only one of the causes of temperature (solar variation is a major other one), and you have to look at trends, not single years. But the main, major trend over the last 100 or 150 years is clear, both for CO2 amount in the atmosphere as for global average temperature.
100 years is a blink of the eyes in the geologic timeframe. C02 levels rise and fall. There is no competent reasons to suspect it's because of SUV's.
I'll ignore the strawman, and just point out the paradox in your statement. You have actually just confirmed that CO2 levels have risen 35% "in the blink of an eye". The only serious reason known for this is that it is (mainly) caused by humans. Please give your competent other explanations, if any.
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Digriz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fram
Yes, they are within the range, but clearly "biased" to one side, namely higher temperatures.
Highly exaggerated analogy: having 5 of the 6 number of the lottery correct is well within the range of expectations: having that week after week is highly supicious.
So what? The earth heats up and cools down on a regular basis. That they are biased towards higher temperatures right now just means we are going through a period of warming.
Um, yes, we are going to a period of warming, that's what is called GW. I'm gald you agree there. The discussion focuses more on the two A's of AAGW (Apocalyptic Anthropogenic Global Warming): is the warming this time caused by humans, and will it have catastrophical results? My take on it is that yes, it is (mainly, not completely) caused by humans, but no, it will not be apocalyptic, but it will have serious implications, and the negative ones will outweigh the positive ones. I have good reasons to believe that it is human caused, I have mostly gut feelings about the effects (apart from some basic things).
Quote:
Originally Posted by James Digriz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fram
Something can be both. While it is an essential trace gas and no scientist is asking for the elimination of all CO2 from the atmosphere, that doesn't mean that an increase of a trace gas with 35% can't be alarming and have negative impacts.
So you say. See my first response. Levels have been higher in the past when there were no cars or factories and we are all still here.
We weren't around when the levels were higher, so your "and we are all still here" is irrelevant. There weren't mammals around back then, let alone humans.
I have stated before that the Earth doesn't care about the current warming, and probably life will go on just as well (except when a Venus scenario would occur, which seems highly unlikely). I'm more concerned about us, humans, and on the kind of life we have now, and the impact on many other vertebrates as well.
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  #94 (permalink)  
Old 08-June-2006, 09:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Digriz
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fram
And this is comforting? Like a doctor saying "I'll give you in one shot one fourth of the does of X you normally get in a lifetime, and you won't feel a thing"? You are comparing apples and oranges. We know that volcanic eruptions have an impact on the climate, but as that is a shortlived event, the results (certainly the extremes therof) are shortlived as well. Our "efforts", on the other hand, are continuously. Furthermore, the argument, to be valid, should not be "a is not bad, so b is not bad either", but "a is not bad, so a + b is not bad either". Volcanic eruptions have not stopped since we started emitting serious amounts of greenhouse gases.
Shortlived? Apple and oranges? We have only been putting out CO2 for 100 years wheras volcanoes have been dumping trash into the atmosphere for millions and millions of years. And both humans and volcanoes dump gas into the atmosphere, its exactely the same thing although on a differnet time scale.
Why do you just repeat your previous argument? I had heard it the first time, and it is still as unconvincing.
Just a figure from Wikipedia:
Quote:
Volcanic activity now releases about 130 to 230 teragrams (145 million to 255 million short tons) of carbon dioxide each year. Volcanic releases are about 1% of the amount which is released by human activities.
And another one from the same page:
Quote:
The longest ice core record comes from East Antarctica, where ice has been sampled to an age of 650,000 years before the present. During this time, the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has varied between 180–210 µL/L during ice ages, increasing to 280–300 µL/L during warmer interglacials.
Which means that the increase we measure now over a hundred years (no matter what the cause), is as big as the increase between an ice age and a warmer period, and that,as has been said, the current (and increasing) level is by far the highest of the last 650,000 years (and probably much longer, but the records are not so good and so continuous earlier).
So it looks like we can make and have made a serious impact, and that our contribution, or the effect it has, is much bigger than the effect of volcanic emissions, simply because it is much more sudden, more intense.
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  #95 (permalink)  
Old 08-June-2006, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chip
Bush? HaHaHaHaHa! (I realize you're joking, but its disturbing to think that there are some who would read that suggestion with a straight face.) Bush doesn't have the education let alone the concern for fellow human beings.
Why not? Twenty years ago Al Gore positions on a variety of topics was much different than they are now (Pro-Life and Pro Gun). Senator Robert Byrd used to be in the KKK and he's changed. Plenty of people in politics change thier views and not just to get more votes, so why not Bush? My own views on the environment now are much different than they were twenty-five years ago.

What the Global Warming folks need to do is get rid of people like Al Gore or George Clooney as their spokesmen and find somebody on the right, like McCain to support the cause.


BTW, Did you know that George Bush has more education than Al Gore? Also his undergraduate grades were better than both Gore or Kerry.
  #96 (permalink)  
Old 08-June-2006, 04:31 PM
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Alright, we have this no politics rule. Sometimes it is really clear that someone started the ball rolling and we'll issue a warning. In other cases, we start with a politically charged topic, like this, and it slowly gets out of hand.

I've closed this thread. No one is warned, but everyone is asked to please be more careful about this sort of thing in the future.
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