I read in newspapers not long ago that some big asteroid is going to hit earth
for about 14-15 years.
it should hit europe and same say it will be the end of our existence.

Now I'm not panicing but I want to know what you think.

Hi, Pegasus -- welcome to the forum.

You're probably thinking of the asteroid 99942 Apophis (a.k.a. 2004 MN4) which will be making a close approach in 2029. Don't worry, it's not expected to hit the Earth, and it's being monitored very carefully.

There's an article about it here, and it's been discussed in several places on the bulletin board, including here.

I wonder what's the probability that it will hit an artificial satellite up there. Granted, it's hard to tell how many of them we'll have in orbit in 2029 (I think there are currently something like 900+) but is there a remote possibility, or negligible, or practically zero?

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I wonder what will happen when this thing is close by. Would something like this invoke enough interest to study it more closely ... possibly catch up to it? Maybe test out how hard it is to blow one of these things up or put a detour on it. I say this for 2 reasons

1) What if in the meantime or lattertime ... we discover that there is another asteroid on an actuall collision course with earth (only a matter of time, not a new concept) we need to be able to stop this from happening. Training will be required.

2) Use this as a Universal attempt to train ourselves to work together as 1. (offsetts of this would benefit the Universal consciouss)

(ohh ya, to the good people of the Bad Astronomy folk who don't know me yet .... Greetings)
to the bautforum .... CHEERS

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Upbeat SF stories are full of global crisis bringing humanity together (see for example Independence Day).

I'm not sure we could count on that kind of friendly teamwork developing, but I very much doubt that this little asteroid is going to zip through our backyard untouched. It will probably have some seismographs and laser reflectors on it before 2015, and perhaps some tools to try and nudge it a bit by 2020, even if it takes private investors to do these things.

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2029-2005 = 24.
2005-24 = 1981.

If we take a deep look at how the topic of asteroid impacts with the Earth, mitigation strategies, destruction of a small subset of our geosat/whatever active satellites, thinking on preparedness for 'KT events' (or maybe 'Tunguska events'), etc, etc, etc, was discussed in 1981, what would we find?

Fast forward 24 years (to 2005).

How does our deep examination of the thinking about topics relevant to this potential impact in 2029 give us clues as to what way the world (US/China/EU/India/Russia/whatever) will deal with whatever situation we may face in 2029?

The last 24 years pretty much proof that the future is quite unpredictable.
A lot of things happened that few or non expected, the collapse of
the USSR for instance

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One of the more interesting ideas I've heard is to capture it into Earth orbit for use in the space elevator.

It won't take out any satellites because as it passes through the geosynchronous distance, it won't be in the same plane as the geostationary satellites. Even if it were, the volume of space is just too large for the odds of a satellite collision to be considered anything other than "practically 0".

BTW... although the odds are low, a 2036 impact between this asteroid and Earth has not been ruled out.

antoniseb ... do you think that this will be something that interest's people enough to support (and ultimately fund) these attempts?
in the scenerio I had envisioned ... the world would work together (and not in the romantic sense that it will bring humanity together and only for that reason) rather than relying on a Hero ...(aka->Will Smith)

nereid, ... I think that this is the point. Do you think that only having clues is necessary for right now? If an asteroid is discovered to be on a CC with earth ... would it be plausible for us to destroy it .. givin the advancements we would make in the 'collision timeframe' (possibly quite a few years) to come trying to destroy/detour it?

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We dont want to distroy it, just the risk of colission. A very small adjustment to its path would chang its track. We must be carfull. Our future could depend on it.
Could this help the efforts of astronomerse to search for these objects, Yes.
Budgeting for space exploration is not high on the list when you are trying to win an election. What we need to do is change the way people perceive astronomy, and what we are about. If the general population was made aware of the impending doomsday of the Human race. That might do it. But it would be a lie, or would it.?
As an interested amateur astronomer I am aware that over six hundred Earth crossing asteroids have been registard as potential extinction cousing event. If they were to be in collision with this planet of ours. Be aware that this has not happened for sixty five million years. Rest easy. Ask the dinosaurs what they thought about it before it happened. mark.

This asteroid is still very far from Earth.No one knows what will happend.And our chance on working together as a team,and preventing this asteroid do God knows what, is really low.People don't care what's good for society.They care what's good only for them.
Many of them don't even know that there is a big rock coming near Earth.They just don't care.
That's a shame

I've Been Saying This, Ever Since, I First Heard about It!!!!

In Fact, Let's Snag It, and, Mine It Out!!!

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Actually, we Do Know.

No Chance of Impact ...

But, a CHANCE, For Profit!!!

Darn, Where's The Ferengi, Smilie?

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I just simply meant it was an interesting idea. Snagging it would be very difficult. It's got a lot of momentum, millions of times more than a spacecraft. Slowing it to capture velocity would probably be beyond our capabilities, even in 24 years from now.

We don't need it to orbit Earth to mine in. But there are probably better candidates than this asteroid.

Biblical times all over again

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Eh ...

Still FUN, to Think About ...

We could, at Least, Put it On an Easily Accessed Tragectory, Riight?

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An impact has NOT been ruled out for 2036 ... it will pass close enough to be affected by our (earth's) gravity in 2035 and thus the exact path it will follow after the gravity effects of earth alter its path are difficult to determine.

But we are quite safe from Apophis "The Destroyer" until 2036. Which is plenty of time to study it and, if necessary, deflect it. Even then, I doubt an impact would occur, but it's best to be safe. We should back a truckload of money up to the asteroid study headquarters and dump it in a big pile there, just to be safe.

Close pass
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/2004mn4d4.gif

Orbit
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=99942

I am not a chicken little but, it seems to me that the cost to prepare to lauch a space mission to deflect this or any other object is worth it. I mean, we send probes to Jupiter and beyond just to take a few pics. The cost of an insurance policy against these little doomsday bringers seems a small price to pay

How much "insurance" should we buy to deflect an object that is not expected to impact Earth soon?

Won't the deflection technology be cheaper at a distant time, 30 years, 100 years, 1000, if/when one does become expected to impact Earth?

Would it be wiser to spend money now on a deflection mission, or on detection technology?

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Welcome to the BAUT Forum, hilary_155.

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Well, practise does make perfect and we have to start somewhere 01101001....................

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"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed, second it is violently opposed, and third, it is accepted as self-evident." Arthur Schopenhauer - renowned 19th Century German philosopher.

I notice that 2004 VD17 is currently at Torino 2. The (very unlikely) "impact" date is May 4, 2102.

Torino 2? "A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0"

If the astoriod is close enough to pass between geosynchronous satellites and the Earth isn't there a chance Earth's gravity will tug it enough along the way to cause a collision?

I'd be astonished if they didn't actually throw earth's gravity into the equation when they are calculating possible paths.

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I don't think it would be difficult at all to "snag" it. You'd only need to move it into a highly elliptical orbit, and utilize aerobraking to lower it into a more useful orbit. Who knows what kind of propulsion systems we'll have in 20 years? If you'd told me we'd have ion engines back in '86, I probably would have told you to shut up and get away from the Atari. ^^

Who knows? Fusion or Fission might come into its own by then. Maybe some ground-breaking discovery in physics will let us harness the power of gravity.

Who knows? But there's one thing we can all agree on... the next 20 years will be amazing!