Hi group.
I read a news about a asteroid which maybe bop with earth in 2036, and when it bop with earth, it's energy which LIBERATION 100,000 time more than energy which free by nuclear explosion.

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For more information about this go to: http://education.guardian.co.uk/high...660738,00.html

Whats your opinion?

The odds are very slim that it will hit in 2036. It's lower than a 1/5000 chance. It will most likely pass much further than the Moon. We'll know for sure in a couple of years when we get more opportunities to bounce radar off the asteroid and refine our understanding of its trajectory.

2036. . . hay thats 30 years out. Look what has happened in the last 30 years. The next 30 are going to be fun. Even if the refined track of this object was to confirm a collision path. . . Stop getting emotive about it and start planing the 'nudge' that will deflect it away. Be very careful, Bruce Willis may not be available.

See topics:

Apophis
Apophis - What should we do?
Asteroid Close Call Will Be a Gain for Science
Moving asteroid 99942 Apophis
Asteroid heads for Earth
Will it happend?
asteroid strike.. should we be worried????

If the forum software would let me search on the short string "MN4" (99942 Apophis was formerly known as 2004 MN4), I could show you many more discussions.

Wikipedia: 99942 Apophis

NASA: Near Earth Object Program: 99942 Apophis (2004 MN4) Earth Impact Risk Summary
That shows impact probabilities of (2036) 0.00017 and (2037) 0.00000024. Personally, I've got many more likely and more unpleasant things to worry about.

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Hum
Here is another `moving asteroid 99942 Apophis` as well.


Redline is orbit path, dashed line axis of rotation.

The asteroid is relatively small, about the length of three football fields, so when it does hit it wouldn't create wide-scale damage to the Earth; though it would cause major damage at the impact site.

Thanks for replies.
Bob, but when it hit the earth " liberation an energy about 100,000 time more that a nuclear explosion such as hiroshima"
And importanter it's effect in atmospher & ........ .
Then this small asteroid can be a danger for earth.

Pff.

From some Univerity of Arizona course material:

Comparison of [Hurricane] Katrina's energy released (over a week) with energy released (instantaneously) in explosions:
Katrina = 4,000,000 Hiroshima bombs
Katrina = 50,000 hydrogen bombs
Katrina = 160 Mt. St. Helens eruptions
Katrina = 10 Krakatoa eruptions

Yeah, Apophis could cause a lot of trouble if it collides with Earth. The approximate area to be struck should be known well in advance and evacuated. Life goes on.

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It sounds from hhEb09'1's information like if the asteroid struck, it would be roughly equivalent to a strong volcanic eruption. Tragic for any nearby, and long-term effects on sunsets, but not an extinction event. But of course the chances are slim. What is more interesting is, how much hype is it going to get as it approaches, and will this be an important event for humanity to 'clue in' that we are members of a cosmic whole?

We may have to be struck by such an event to wake people up to the need for a more robust space program.

Some folks have to be struck by lightning to get out of the dark.

Considering the consequences of an impact, a chance of 1 in 5,000
is pretty serious IMO. We wouldn't accept such risks in most human activities.

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And as I understand it, the near miss in 2029 (~.4LD, IIRC) makes any estimate of subsequent encounters not much better than wild guesses.

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Hum,
If Apophis actually does hit in 2029 the error ellipse (track path), just now, stretches from parts of Europe and the Middle East, to the heavily populated parts of India and Bangladesh.

If it hits in 2036, the narrow zone crosses Siberia and Central America, so it mainly threatens a tsunami in the Pacific off the West Coast of North America.

After new radar observations, astronomers have said that the chances of an asteroid impact in the year 2036 are lower than previously thought.

The chances of collision with the 390 metre asteroid Apophis in 2036 now stand at 1 in 24,000...



This graphic shows the orbit of the asteroid Apophis in relation to the paths of Earth and other planets in the inner solar system.

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`Irony` actually does mean `metal like`...

Ahh. I had read in the paper just about a week ago that the odds were 1-in-6,000. Is it still true that it's 2029 pass will take it within the orbit of a number of our satellites (5.6 earth radii, I've seen)?