Belated? Says who?

Shall I listen to Werfer... or shall I go with the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics? Hmm... Difficult to choose...

HohmannTransfer.com: MPC Ephemerides for Objects Passing Within Ten Lunar Distances :: Get Ephimerides for 2007 TU24 (January 13):

What was that? No further observations necessary? What? But Werfer said an update was belated.

What is wrong with you, CfA? Why are you asking observers to spend time on newly discovered objects whose risks need analysis when they could be measuring perfectly good old objects whose non-risk is already verified? What gives? Come on, CfA, we need that "belated" -- though unnecessary -- update on 2007 TU24. Forget the new objects! (You guessed it: I jest. Good work, CfA, focusing concetration on the unknown risks like that!)

Oh, look what happens when you optionally go backwards in time to 2008 Jaunary 1 for that 2007 TU24 ephimerides:

So the PHA (Potentially Hazardous Asteroid) folks seek observations resuming the day after the closest approach. Looks like Werfer might have to wait for that update. Cool.

And, just to pile on... a few other objects' ephimerides results to show CfA is not expecting observers to sit idle:

Look, Werfer, "urgent". 2007 YS56 is in urgent need of observation! Gonna fret about that one, now? NEO Impact Risk: potential impact in 2104! Oh, no!

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I can't believe there is the same fear-mongering and pseudo-science garbage on this site as there is over on GLP and other nonsense blogs. Phil has a reputation for critical thinking. I would have hoped most, if not all of the posters would have the same mentality.

This is all quite simple. JPL NEO site has already logged more than 60 observations since 2007 TU24 was discovered in Oct 2007. That means they have an accuracy of better than 30,000 miles. At the distance of approx 1.4 LD, this is insignificant and won't impact Earth or the moon.

However, it will be close enough that it MAY be affected by the gravitational influence of the Earth (moon is unlikely to be close enough in its orbit when this asteroid passes to be a factor), so they will want to make more observations as it passes and afterwards to see if it will become a threat in some distant future (and also for the science that will be gained). It will continue to orbit in a similar path and some day, the Earth and this asteroid will meet again.

But even if it did impact the Earth in the distant future, it will not be close to being a planet killer. At approx 400m (roughly 1000 ft) and its speed, it would do serious damage to a large region and potentially cause a massive tsunami if it hit water at certain locations. But let's make this clear - it will not happen this month, this year or for many, many more years into the future - if ever. We don't even know much about it's density or make-up, it's quite possible that it may fragment and burn-up if it hit our atmosphere. (It's not very big so doesn't have a lot of gravity to hold/bind together.)

The only significance of this event is that it's going to be a great observational and photographic event for astronomers and amateur astronomers (such as myself). As it passes, professionals will be able to get more detailed information about it's composition (you can be sure they will be observing it with every form of electromagnetic radiation they can like light, X-rays and radio), mass, detailed orbital elements, etc. Who knows, it may be a great asteroid to visit for distant future mining operations, or target practice for asteroid diversion. I know for one, I will out observing this asteroid fly-by if the skies are clear, safely comfortable in knowing that it's not any form of threat to myself or my loved ones.

You have just insulted about 95% of the regular posters here with your very first post. Congrats.

Welcome by the way, and I suggest you might want to read more before making another incorrect assumption. The FAQ's and rules would be a good place to start.

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I think what Fredt wanted to say is that there is no need to be anxious for an asteroid passing by. I fully agree with him that some posters try and try to get their point ( ie. is "NASA" honest in their communication ? ).
I want to thank the other posters (99,9% of this forum I guess ) who are able to come with sensemaking arguments .
If one is interested how the earth looks like at the encounter from the viewpoint of the asteroid 2007TU24 you can see the link in my previous post .

My question was, "What are the specific items that you believe are consistently updated for other NEOs, but not for this one?"

I provided a list of asteroids. Both 2007 TU24 and 2008 AF3 are on it, as well as many others.

Of course, in your response, you didn't specify what data items you were referring to that were supposed to be regularly updated and only provided one asteroid example, but in looking at the information on 2008 AF3, it appears that the first "observation used" was on 1/10/2008, and most recent one used was from 1/13/2008. Since it apparently was only recently found, it would be difficult for the data to be older.

Compare that to 2006 AX44 expected to make its closest approach on 2/07/2008. The first observation used was from 1/10/2006, and the last 2/24/2006. Here's another:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2006%20JY25;orb=1

with "last observation used" at 3/11/2007. So, it should be clear that there is no "2 day" rule for updating asteroid data.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

That reminds me: I wanted to alert Werfer to this puppy, for its "impact" on today's news: Traffic Report:

0.98 LD. It came inside the Moon's distance -- very likely much closer than 2007 TU24 will pass. Duck.

And I offer a welcome to fredt231. You sound like a dedicated and helpful amateur observer. Thanks for your efforts there, and your reasoning here. Don't be too hard on BAUT or the participants in this topic. A few of us may appear to be making wild statements, punctuated with way too many exclamation marks, but we are just having fun. The actual count of BAUT members who are concerned that 2007 TU24 will impact Earth at the end of the month, is minuscule.

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You're right.

A search of "Phil Plait" on the GLP forum
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/01/13/08/pg1
shows that he has more admirers there than even on his own forum!

[quote author=01101001]It's a lot like the anti-BAUT.[/quote]

FWIW, Inter Dimensional Warrior and WIO both tried to peddle their GLP BS here and both were banned. Of course, both claim that they were banned to suppress the "truth".

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T. Anderson

Yes, this is a fact we cannot change but it is still worth talking about for science's sake (if this will still have a meaning after January 29 ).
Yes, anyone with a good astronomical instrument can see an asteroid (if they know where to point it). But when it comes to exact orbital elements everybody turns to Harvard's Minor Planet Center or Jet Propulsion Laboratory. WHY? Because observing an object is something but computing it's trajectory is something completly different.
2007 TU24 was discovered too late. (Other asteroids were discovered only after they passed very close to Earth). So it is impossible to do accurate telemetry for 2007 TU24. Because it is comming directly towards us and there are no distinctive points to compute from. This is (I supose) why NASA is not updating elements. We can only sit, wait and see. And hope. And pray.

Huh? 2007 TU24 is coming directly at us? Great! When it crosses our orbital path around the sun, earth has moved on on its way and is out of danger.
Or are you telling us, that something is magically changing the asteroids cource to keep it on target earth?

2007 TU24 is heading for a point in space that Earth will come near end of the month. It is not heading straight at us but to a point in front of us.

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The general direction is towards Earth. That is why, anyone who looks at it today, tomorow and the day after tomorow will see the same point in the same place. That is why nobody can compute now a more refined orbit. That is why we are having this discution. That is why there are doubts.

What references can you provide to support this claim?

Edit:

I'm trying to find out where you're getting these ideas. Is this all from GLP? It doesn't make physical sense, for reasons Laguna2 already explained.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

I'm puzzled.

It seems we are simultaneously being told by one poster that the site as a whole is at fault because one or two other posters express concern about a particular asteroid (which is not either of those currently at Torino 1); and then, by another poster, that there is unquestionable danger of an impact from this asteroid in the immediate future.

I don't believe that either of these points of view are sustainable, but neither do I wish to rebut them in a way that could taken as ad hominem.

Current estimates are that TU24 for sure is all set to miss both moon and earth ( earth by over 500,000 kms ,I think ) so what need to check out is the effect of earth's gravity on its orbit...

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LOST

First, I have to say that I'm sorry for my english, I'm a French native.

I just wanna thank you for your posts that reassured me! I was searching about "2007TU24" on google and came on that site GPL, without knowing it was some conspiration site or something like that...I find it a bit strange that a astronomical website began by "god..."but ok. I read it and was really frightened about 2007TU24's posts! It took 3 hours to read all that posts (all the more I don't understand english langage so well!), and at the end , I was sure it gonna hit us!
I didn't study so much sciences, so I cannot say if something can be true or not, that's why I believed it. I think it's very dangerous to say such wrong things just to make people panic!
Then I came here and saw your posts, which seems to be more reasonable!
So I just wanna thank you! I'm quiet reassured about that. Could you just tell me a second time, and assure me that GPL website is reputated to be stupid, and that TU24 will sure NOT hit us at all!!?? I must hear it again after reading such bad scenarios!
Again, sorry for my english, hope you could understand my thoughts.

Aurélie, french girl.

We are not discussing here who is right and who is wrong. We all have the same informations. I do not have more data than anyone else here nor do I have more computing power. All data and computing power is with NASA, JPL, MPC and such. What we are talking about here is the fact that some asteroids are discovered too late (some of them only when they have passed Earth) for determining an accurate orbit. It is the case with TU24. "Current estimates are that TU24 for sure is all set to miss both moon and earth". "...is not either of those currently at Torino 1". But they lack enough accurate data. It needs more astrometry, more phisical observation and is an extremely strong target:
http://echo.jpl.nasa.gov/asteroids/g..._schedule.html
If you go here: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/neo_ca and do a clever interogation you will see that it is the closest aproach in the next year. And still there is almost no official opinion about that. Only 16 asteroids are predicted to be closer in the forseeable future. And still silence.

You're most welcome.

There is a thing called the GLP-effect: If doom is announced on GLP it is certain not to happen!


Welcome to BAUTFORUM.

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General direction?

You must be using the NEO orbital diagram and zooming all the way in on Jan. 29th, where 2007 TU24 appears to converge right at Earth. Of course, it will still be .0038 AU away, but I guess the asteroid is close enough (and large enough) to freak some people out.



What makes you think that? It is NOT a threat the hit Earth or the moon. A more refined orbit is not needed. There are no doubts from the experts, and that's good enough for me.

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Scienara: A rejection of reason and evidence.

Thank you. I still wonder why my "IP ADDRESS HAS BEEN BANNED". I´ve never ever visited GodlikeProductions.com, and I still don´t succeed. From your description of GodlikeProductions.com I can conclude that I´m a lucky man

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If everyone had even a basic grasp of scientific principles, this planet would be a better place (Phil Plait)

Die Lücke, die wir hinterlassen, ersetzt uns vollkommen [The gap we will leave behind will take our place entirely] (Carl Heinz Schroth)

1 + e^i*pi = 0

2007 TU24 MOID just changed from 0.0037 to 0.0012 computed from last observation 2008-01-13 computed by Otto Matic on 2008-Jan-14 00:50:07.
This means that it is inside lunar orbit.
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi#top

Otto Matic?
By the way, if you put the quoted orbital elements into Celestia, you can demonstrate for yourself that 2007 TU24 does show detectable movement in the sky from day to day. Since discovery in October, it has moved out of Cetus into Sculptor and back.

Grant Hutchison

If you think that NASA's JPL is loughable than lough. I do not know the man. The name is from NASA's JPL site:
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1
Take the new computed elements and play some more with Celestia. Nice toy for grownups Of course it moved from october until now.

I know. I believe it may be a joke.

Thank you. We aim to please.

So it wasn't discovered too late after all, then? Whew!


Grant Hutchison

Although today's NASA update has TU24's MOID decrease from 0.0037 to 0.0012, they're predicting a....miss, Gott zu dank!

Is it possible for a 300 metre asteroid to just shoot through the earth's upper atmosphere without disintegrating, and then continue off into space?

What would be seen: flames, smoke, a debris trail, that could be seen by a good part of the population of a hemisphere? Would the sound be thunderous, a sharp crack, or a massive whoosh?

Really? MOID is the minimum distance between the orbits -- not the objects. It's a way of thinking: if the asteroid was in the worst-case position in its orbit, a little behind or a little ahead, maybe, how close could it possibly come to Earth?

List Of The Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs):What changes have been made to the object-distance "Closest Earth approach" which, yesterday, was holding at: 1.44 LD at 0831 UTC on 29 Jan. Anyone heard? (I'd expect a change of some sort, if they have new observations.)

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Of course, 2007 TU24 is coming nowhere close to Earth's atmosphere, this pass, to be sure, so don't expect to get a show, but for a similar case, see the topic Tetons Meteor and follow advice there to a movie of a large bolide skipping off Earth's atmosphere.

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Of course, the Teton's bolide probably wasn't anywhere near that large. Much depends upon structure and how deep into the atmosphere it got. Could be lethally daylight spectacular, could be a faint ruddish smudge across the night sky.

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Iyam what Iyam

Teton was only c1000 tons.

If TU24 is nickel-iron, it must be several millions of tons.

As it's coming up from behind the Earth, what will be it's speed relative to us during the 3 days it's in our vicinity?

Assuming it didn't impact or explode, apart from the spectacle, could it do damage by just careening through the atmosphere at 20,000 mph and 100,000feet?

Welcome to the BAUT forum. Rest assured that you will get more reason here than at GLP, which regular members won't even look at the colour of their socks without deducing from the holes therein that the world will end on Thursday week.

If you are really concerned, visit this site for regular updates on the status of the planet. At present, we are still 'Green', so the world hasn't ended yet!

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"I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day." - Douglas Adams

"Certainly, in the topsy-turvy world of heavy rock, having a good solid piece of wood in your hand is often useful." - Ian Faith

Just a brief comment regarding the idea that concern about possible impacts is 'crazy'. This 'across the board' suggestion may not be the intention of some of the posters here, but it is certainly the clear intimation.

The danger and risk from significant impacts is real. If this were not the case, the time, money and effort invested in the various search programs would not be thusly spent. Evidence abounds of the potentially dire consequences of a significant impact. It can and will happen someday.

That this 'someday' doesn't appear to be anytime soon does not negate the risk, nor should we use that fact to downplay the overall danger. It's possible to educate and clarify regarding fears of a specific impact without lulling people into a false sense of security. As a species, as it is we are not quite doing all we should - or all we can - to address this issue. It would not be in our interests for this to become even more so the case.

Rabid panicked fearmongering and haughty naysaying are equally detrimental in the context of the issue at hand. We need to try to remember that - only a fraction of the people on this planet have a true understanding of our situation and vulnerability in the cosmos. It's vital to ensure that this issue holds the place of importance that it should in the longterm consciousness of our species. It only takes one impactor with potential for existential effect to remove us from the equation if we are not vigilant and prepared.

Personally, it is of no comfort to me if a confirmed impact is thousands of years into the future...my concern is not for myself, but for humanity as a species. Crazy as that may sound.