I've just seen different MOID data on different sites and dates and I jumped to conclusions It's still 0.0012501 on
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1
and .00096 on
http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/css/css_sss_newdisc.html
so it's still a bit puzzling.

I certainly saw it myself, and at the same time gentle_dragon reported it. The JPL MOID estimate shifted from 0.0037 to 0.0012 (my rounding of their numbers, in each case) with the addition of the observation of 18 Jan.

Grant Hutchison

Well, it's good that you have finally realized your error. I may have jumped to conclusions a bit myself, so forgive me for thinking that a newly registered poster, who has posted only in this thread (phrases like "dream on" and "now you do the math"), had a ulterior motive.

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Scienara: A rejection of reason and evidence.

Accepted I'm "junior" only on this forum In reality I'm very "senior" and I know something about "good" astronomy.

So what date is the Earth going to get hit by TU24?

I need to figure out when to plan my vacation. Thank you!

Interesting, thanks. I hadn't seen it change, so it's good to have confirmation. I wasn't sure if it was just an idea that was passed around.

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Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

Not within the foreseeable future.

Go ahead and plan, but you can ignore 2007 TU24, unless you're planning to observe it by telescope on your vacation. Oh, and welcome to BAUT.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

I went ahead and registered on the boards at TU24.org. Same name as here. Posted a rebuttal, basically rehashing what Mr. Plait has already said. (I did give him credit, of course! Also the site link).

Post:
http://www.tu24.org/forums/index.php?showtopic=139

Let's see if I get a proper discussion, of if they pull a truther response and just ban me. It'll be a good litmus test to see what their intentions are.

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Mighty big thanks!

I'm mildly curious what the TU24 board folks will do after the asteroid goes on its way. I wonder if they'll change their name (perhaps picking another "dangerous" asteroid), if they'll try to scare people with the idea that 2007 TU24 could hit on some future date, or if they'll just fade away in a few months.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

Heh. This is amusing. In comments on BA's blog, the TU24 fellow said this:

If there are no effects from asteroids WD5 and TU24 by Feb 1, 2008, such as illustrated in my video, then I will personally donate $500 to support the Bad Astronomy website server or to a charity of your choice.

So, he's talking about "effects," not "impact." I have no doubt he'll latch onto bad weather somewhere, or other natural events that happen somewhere on the planet, every day, and declare these were somehow caused by the asteroid.

He also wonders why the news isn't covering this asteroid, hinting that it indicates a cover-up, rather than the obvious (it isn't news).

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

No, as the BA said, it is certainly not TU2 close 4 comfort. ;-)

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I don't care which rocket you use, whichever one you pick, I'll like it, I swear.
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Rovers forever! - ToSeek

OK. Number-crunching aside....should I stock up on MREs and bottled water, and run like mad to wherever?

Or should I just keep my camera handy, and the VCR tuned to CNN to record a near miss?

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Angel of the Abyss
-------------
"I am Ripper...Tearer...Slasher...Gouger. I am the Teeth in the Darkness, the Talons in the Night. Mine is Strength...and Lust...and Power! I AM BEOWULF!"

Certainly not for this asteroid.

If you have the camera tied to a good telescope, and you take some care to track it, go ahead. Otherwise, don't bother. Again: This thing will be over 500,000 km away.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

What did you do January 13, 0913 UTC, when 2008 AF3 made its closest Earth approach of only about 0.98 LD (compared to 2007 TU24's much farther estimated 1.44 LD)?

Do the same.

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Actually, I did see a HUMONGOUS light in the sky a couple weeks back. Figured it might be Venus. But I'm not an astronomer.

I watched it for a while, and then made some nachos.

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Angel of the Abyss
-------------
"I am Ripper...Tearer...Slasher...Gouger. I am the Teeth in the Darkness, the Talons in the Night. Mine is Strength...and Lust...and Power! I AM BEOWULF!"

News: NASA JPL Near Earth Object Program: Near-Earth Asteroid 2007 TU24 to Pass Close to Earth on Jan. 29

Wait. What was that again?

Some people must be so disappointed...

But, they can look forward to further manufactured fear, if that's what pleases them:

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Hey Everyone,
Im claiming ignorance here and just want some expert perspective on this.

With TU24 listed as having a MOID of .0012501 AU and an AU being aprox 93,000,000... doesnt that mean the asteroid will only miss us by about 116,000 miles or 1/3 the distance to the moon?

I keep reading posts that it will miss us by much more.
Are my calculations off?

Seems like a miss of only 116,000 miles is pretty darn close and the MOID over time seems to have consistantly gone down as the rock got closer.

Could Earth's gravitational pull deminish the 116,000 mile gap?

Thanks in advance for any help understanding this.
It IS kind of scary if you don't understand these things.

basichuman

Welcome to BAUT Forum, basichuman.

No. No. No. It's been discussed here before.

MOID -- Minimal Orbital Intersection Distance -- is how close the orbits are. For a close approach to have the same distance during a pass, then both bodies have to be exactly in perfect position within their respective orbits. The odds of that are... astronomical. It's a worst-case sort of thing -- under the wildest of circumstances, if neither body is perturbed, how close could one object come to the other. People who point you at that figure either have no understanding of what its significance is, or are trying to scare you.

Please, if you are interested in watching progress, pay attention to the closest approach, or nominal distance, figure. It is, and has been, estimated at about 1.4 lunar distances now (sources: NASA/JPL press release: 1.4 LD; Traffic Report: 1.44 LD; NEODyS: 0.0037 AU). That's what matters for this pass. You really want to be concerned with how close it will come this time, not how close it might ever possibly come over all time.

As the List Of The Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) says, I repeat:

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it would be in the world governments best interest not to make an possible impact known.
think about it.
world wide panic.
prices would sky rocket on everything.
and all the rioting.
the results could be possible worse than the actual impact.
just a thought and my opinon only.

They can't stop independent observation and calculation of the orbit, so it's very hard to understand how they would keep it hidden, even if they wanted to.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

another Question about tu24.
how far south will we be able to observe tu24?
if clear weather down here in Texas I plan on trying to observe if possible

Thanks for the clarification.

Im still a bit murky on the terminology but appreciate the feedback. Puts my mind at ease to get an explanation from someone who understands this stuff and sees there is not an issue to be alarmed about.

Like I said, if you don't understand what you are looking at, reading or hearing it can APPEAR to be scary... or worse yet, it can be MADE to appear scary.

Thanks for the reply.

basichuman

You're quite welcome. There are a bunch of people out there making false claims about an impending impact or insinuating same. Some probably just misunderstand the process, but I suspect some of them are sadistic and enjoy making people worry. Be careful.

I'm sure this isn't the last near-miss that will be hyped by careless and evil people. There will certainly be more, in months, more probably within some years. When they become news, and worried people ask, I hope we can just point to this topic (hello, people from the future, sent here to look back at the happy outcome of the 2007 TU24 close approach!) and say: "See what happened last time? The scaremongers were wrong. The astronomers were right. Who do you trust this time?"

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Maybe this very rough analogy will help. Think of the orbits as lanes on a highway and the Earth or the asteroid as cars in those lanes. The MOID is sort of describing whether the lanes cross each other or not. But even if those lanes cross each other, you will only get a collision if the two cars (objects) happen to be in the intersection at the exact same time. In this case, they are not even very close.

And these are very long lanes, there is only one car in each, and compared to the length of the highway, these are pretty small cars.

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If you trust the NASA JPL news release, there is a star map there showing that at its brightest, 2007 TU24 is moving from Camelopardalis to Ursa Major. I'm pretty sure you can see them in Texas, but doublecheck a map for the hours you'll observe (like Fourmilab).

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Wikipedia: 2007 TU24

NASA JPL (Asteroid Radar Research) 2007 TU24 Planning

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If any significant impact event were to be detected they ( those people that run this alleged world government.) Would not be able to suppress the scientific community into silence. Not ever, no way.
The information network that we are using right now has made this planet a much easy'r place to find things out about.
People generally are appalling at keeping a secret.
Informed opinion and better data will be our friend not our enemy.
You tell us to think about it... Well, we have. Follow the science not the so sayer.

That was my first response too Astromark. I was no longer posting at that time- but a change has inspired me to post away so...

What World Government!? Did something happen that I'm totally unaware of?

Next, there are way too many astronomers, private astronomers and amateur astronomers looking at the skys to keep an impactor a secret.

The "panic" thing is purely a Hollywood gimic.

Observe the reality: They are always informing the public about stuff. The government spends very little time thinking about how to not tell something but how to handle the press release about it.

Aside from Botched jobs, the government is really quick to warn people of danger, initialize evacuations and take whatever measures necessary to ensure civil safety. Why? Imagine how many heads would roll if they did NOT do so.

Wowie! the sensationalist Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf has TU24 already upgraded to a SMALL PLANET!!!!!! (text in Dutch)
Maybe there is life on TU24, just like the little ole lady of Mars :-)

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