I don't know if this

http://youtube.com/watch?v=p2hKPY1jJwM

http://www.godlikeproductions.com/fo...sage486307/pg1

about asteroid TU24 is real, hype or hoax, but what would be the likely result of an impact of a 300m asteroid on the Moon?

And on the Earth?

Civilisation, species or even life ending?

Or would we survive?

Any possible near miss effects?

2007 TU24 is real. The future events depicted are someone's fantasy.

See Bad Astronomy Blog: Asteroid to miss Earth January 29

Lifted from the Internet's wastebasket (Google cache) from back when 2007 TU24's path wasn't known well enough, it was listed as a risk (and is not, now), at the NEO Program :

Asteroid Apophis is roughly the same size. Check out the impact effects described in Wikipedia.

People would be wise to evacuate the region it might strike (or all coastal regions near the water it might strike). They can return some time later and make a huge profit off the new tourist attraction.

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I find "extremely detrimental" to be an interesting choice of words! If you happened to be living there, you would indeed be extremely detrimented.

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As above, so below

Doctor: "Ok, now hold still... You may feel some 'slight discomfort.'"

The NASA data hasn't been updated for some time.

The fact that this rock is booked into the Goldstone observatory for observations, and it ''needs astrometry'' tells me they have NOT got a firm grip on the precise trajectory of this thing.

The problem NASA is having in regards to an agreed upon solution is that around the end of December they noticed this asteroid had a strange tumbling rotation. The orbit they originally defined was symmetrical. Further study indicated that the orbit is irregular. From October to December a series of irregular jogs in the orbit were observed. With each jog the solution has to be rerun. The composition of the asteroid is believed to be dense rock or iron. The multiple spin axis, density and irregular shape of this asteroid couple with no prior observation and lack of time is causing havoc with NASA’s ability to accurately predict the outcome. T

he next posted solution could bring the near miss distance inside of the Moons orbit. All recent program runs are in consensus that it is inside of 1 LD.

If you're going to make fact-like statments of this sort, it would be nice of you to cite the source so we can tell if you're just making it up or not. Thanks.

With some research, it appears to be at least semifactual. Where did the rest of the reasoning come from? You?

At the Goldstone asteroid schedule, I see this entry:

I don't see "need astrometry" although some other items have a similar phrase, e.g.:

(Edit: Oh, there's a "Needs Astrometry" column marked "yes". OK. It needs astrometry. Fine.)

Do you think they think it's going to impact Earth? Why do you think they are scheduling 2007 TU24 observations past closest approach and into February?

Anyway, since it will be around again in the future, it sure is wise of them to make measurement of the object during this miss, so they'll have a better idea of where it will be in the future. Or do you think they shouldn't study it because if they do study it, then people might take that as a sign they are confused and in panic?

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Where are you getting this from? By the way, rotation alone isn't going to affect orbit. Something either has to affect it or it has to be shedding mass.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

The "latest" from NASA
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007%20TU24;orb=1
but based on 12 day old data, "last obs. used 01-01-2008"

So if I read you right -- and I sure could be entirely wrong -- you are concerned that 1) NASA has not, as of now, gathered, (or, more certainly, published) data more recently than January 1, while at the same time you are concerned that 2) NASA has scheduled Goldstone to gather more data in January and February.

It's puzzling, but it kinda seems to me like you're dead set on being concerned, huh?

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Yes, and . . .? What was the source for the "irregular orbit" comment? I hope you aren't confusing the refinement of orbital elements with the idea that the asteroid is somehow jumping around.

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

For goodness sake stop this panic mentality.

If this object is going to kill you then that is what will happen. Worry about those things you can change. Your diet and road safety would be a good starting point.

Get involved with a local astronomical society. By becoming actively involved in this hobby you could save the world. No. I am not kidding.
Amature astronomers globally are today involved in the study of many occulting events. Some of the information received can help map the threat to Earth. Or provide data to change it. Cher up... well be right.

If the parameters are entered in here http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/
it seems that a worst case direct hit by TU24 would be equivalent to a 2700 MT explosion - enough to take out a city, temporarily shut down a small state, or cause a medium tsunami.

It sounds (reads) to me like you are getting your impetus/motivation from GLP and then cherry picking "worst case scenario" data from NASA!

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Any day you wake up on "the right side of the dirt" is a good day.

T. Anderson

I could be mistaken, but it sounds like you are vastly under-estimating the effects of a 2-3GTenergy release. I mean its not an end-of-the-world senario, but its a very bad decade or so. Roughly on the order of a major Yellowstone eruption. the immediate devastation would spread across hundreds of square miles, and the impact would have global effects for decades.

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Iyam what Iyam

Who cares? It's not going to even come close any time soon.

Let's review the sort of distance we're talking about. Here is a scale model of Earth and Moon (source: Wikipedia):



Current estimate of closest approach of 2007 TU24 is 0.003704 AU, via
Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics: PHA Close Approaches To The Earth:

The moon orbits at a distance approximately 0.00257 AU, so the current close approach of 2007 TU24 is about 50% more than the Earth-Moon distance pictured. That would probably put it way off the edge of your computer monitor, several more inches.

If the experts are off by a whopping 100,000 kilometers, it will still be outside the moon's orbit.

Why aren't you more worried about the Moon smacking your noggin? It comes nearer than this asteroid's pass every day.

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If NASA don't update TU24's path this week, would it be sus?

Or could there be another explanation?

If NASA believed there was a good chance, or even a certainity of it hitting earth, would they let us know?

Or would the responsible thing at such short notice be to say nothing, or even lie?

Surprise: NASA doesn't own all the world's telescopes! You need to scale up your conspiracy theory.

Are you suggesting all major national governments, all universities with good facilities, all individuals with the tools and talent, all who are able to take measurements and compute the path of 2007 TU24, yet after they conclude that impact is imminent in weeks, plenty of time to evacuate a region, and all somehow unanimously decide -- or are somehow forced? -- not to inform the world?

Yeah, sure. Happens every week.

I gotta wonder why you don't you take your fear-mongering to a more appreciative audience, like GLP? They love such there. Those people enjoy the harmless passing of many doomsday deadlines every year. There is the trembling audience you seek. It must be making you feel bad that you're getting no traction here, huh?

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This does seem to have morphed from an astronomy question into a conspiracy theory. Werfer, do you have an answer to my question, here:

http://www.bautforum.com/questions-a...ml#post1150482

I'm still waiting to hear where the "irregular orbit" comment came from.

There are many NEO asteroids that are regularly observed. You haven't shown that there is anything unusual in the observation process for 2007 TU24. Why the special interest?

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I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

01101001, I think that's where he (?) is getting his info!

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Any day you wake up on "the right side of the dirt" is a good day.

T. Anderson

Just for fun I thought I'd try to get an idea of who those claimed-evil people are who are keeping the supposed impact of 2007 TU24 a closely guarded secret.

Here's a recent observation note from Tracking News, Jan 1:

Desert Moon Obs., eh? Never heard of it. Sounds like a real ultra-top-secret NASA operation, doesn't it? Black helicopters? Let's see... Desert Moon. Cute. It's a mom-and-pop operation. Mom, on the left. 12-inch telescope middle. That'd be smiling Pop on the right. Unfeeling criminals? Or friendly, dedicated astronomy hobbyists just trying to help out?

I hope they Google their outfit name some day and find mention of it here. (Hi, folks! Thanks for pitching in!) I hope they don't take seriously Werfer's apparent insinuation that they might be the type of monsters that would let millions die in an impact event. Maybe they'll understand that some people get carried away sometimes. They look kinda kindly.

That was fun. Who else? Tracking News, Dec. 6

Why, that's no NASA-owned barbwire-surrounded facility either. That's the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics & University of Arizona Whipple Observatory, staffed by some of those egghead ivory-tower astronomers. I wonder how NASA keeps that Tim Spahr quiet. Blackmail? Threats? Bribes? I doubt it.

Aw, one more... Dec. 7

Spacewatch. Now there's a government paramilitary-sounding name. Men in black, for sure. Spacewatch Project. Well, shoot, it's another set of University of Arizona academics, this time at Kitt Peak:

Spacewatch People: Professors and their students?

Help me out. How does this conspiracy of silence work again?

Edit: Later, I amused myself by looking early in the observation history: Tracking News, 2007 October 12:

Just look at all those people and institutions able to observe the object, way back when it was farther away and dimmer! Anyone of them could alert those at risk -- if there was a risk.

And, I was just thinking: in the conspiracy mindset, what could make the US National Weather Service so very different from NASA? When a big hurricane is a few days from flattening Florida (can Florida be any flatter?), the NWS is on all the media, every hour, advising people to move their butts hundreds of miles, how, when, why, and providing constant updates. No fear of panicking people there: "Run for your lives, shelter up high, or drown!" But, supposedly, NASA sees an asteroid 3 weeks from flattening maybe some little country and they just sit there, mum, and somehow orders everyone who knows about it to remain silent, 'cause they don't want anyone to get upset? Why? How does one conceive of such nonsense?

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NASA normally update a NEO's details every 2 days.

That they haven't for almost 2 weeks, is it odd or usual?

Have you any contact at NASA to ask when they will update?

If they don't and there's a hit, could they be held legally liable ie as a national authority, could they be sued for having witheld public info?!

You are getting your info from GLP aren't you?

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Any day you wake up on "the right side of the dirt" is a good day.

T. Anderson

Evidence please. Here is a list of NEO close approaches on their site:

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/ca/

What are the specific items that you believe are consistently updated for other NEOs, but not for this one?

This has turned into a conspiracy theory thread, and I'd like to see you start answering some questions about the various assertions you're throwing out. You have others already waiting for you.

__________________
I say there is an invisible elf in my backyard. How do you prove that I am wrong?

Disclaimer: Avatar is not an official NASA image and does not imply any specific interplanetary or interstellar capability.

The Leif Ericson Cruiser

Another NEO, 2008AF3, had its data updated a couple of days ago
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2008%20AF3;orb=1

When NASA updates TU24's, hopefully this week, we'll breathe easier, or......

The Tunguska event is believed to have been an airburst that flattened everything for miles around.

Which is potentially more destructive to a city: a 300m big asteroid directly impacting, or an airburst?

You are the only one here who is the least bit concerned about this asteroid. The current error ellipse is totally outside of the Moon's orbit. Any update will just tighten the error ellipse.

O N E ** M O R E ** T I M E

This asteroid is NOT going to hit Earth

Do you understand?

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Any day you wake up on "the right side of the dirt" is a good day.

T. Anderson

Yes, I understand. And with just one more belated update from NASA to allay any doubt, I will believe it.

Here you can find the asteroids path in its final hours before the approach to Earth .
http://www.orbitsimulator.com/cgi-bi...98474852/39#39
The asteroid stays at a safe distance from both Earth and Moon .
I would like to mention that a possible impact to Earth was ruled out already some months ago , as the uncertainty regio was very small after the first days of discovery .
The picture was generated using the latest ephemeris on 01/01/2008 and integrated with high accurancy .

Mom's okay.. She's just along for the ride. It's pop you have to watch out for. I know who he's working for because the United Nations Intelligence Taskforce told me. He's a member of this family, albieit in disguise!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slitheen

And that's not a telescope - its a nickel-iron ferrous attractor!!!

PS: looking through their site, they sound like great people

John

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"Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel."

--Ambrose Bierce

http://threelittleboxes.com

What is GLP? Each time I click to this I see this message on my screen:
SORRY - YOUR IP ADDRESS HAS BEEN BANNED - Thank you for not stalking!

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If everyone had even a basic grasp of scientific principles, this planet would be a better place (Phil Plait)

Die Lücke, die wir hinterlassen, ersetzt uns vollkommen [The gap we will leave behind will take our place entirely] (Carl Heinz Schroth)

1 + e^i*pi = 0

Sorry. It's commonly abbreviated here and mentioned often. GodlikeProductions.com: It's a lot like the anti-BAUT.

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