Or are the Chinese just dreamin'?

I read this:
and I'm, like, "Geeeez..." Two of them have even been to Russia for training, wooo.

They scare me, they really do. What are the odds that they can pull this off without getting someone killed? Or without their spacecraft simply falling apart in midair?

It sounds like they've basically got all their moms and grandmas sewing their spacesuits at home or something, too. I mean, is it possible to start a manned spaceflight program from scratch with no money, no experience, just a lot of willpower?

I just keep getting the feeling that it's like one of those Judy Garland/Mickey Rooney movies, "Hey, kids, let's put on a show!" except that these kids are trying to build a moon rocket.

And this scares me, too:
I'm sitting here with my Made in China bathrobe and my Made in China coffee mug and my Made in China slippers, and I'm wondering whether I'd trust a Made in China rocketship to carry me to the Moon.

And back again.

Which, after all, is the most important thing, isn't it? Getting home again.

I can't really answer whether it's feasible for the Chinese to go to the Moon or not, but I do have questions to ask (apologies if these are answered in the article you linked to). What kind of experience do they have in rocketry? What kind of big bore rockets do they have capable of getting to the Moon? How long have they had an astronaut training programme? Have they "bought in" Russian expertise at all? Are they sub-contracting with different nations for equipment? Are they obtaining information or support from the US or Russia? Do they intend to go to the Moon straight away or via a succession of intermediate missions?

"Going to the Moon" with a manned mission isn't something you can set up overnight or even within a year or two.

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Garlic Bread?!?!

Why not? I suppose they have lots of brains among 1,3 billion people. It's kind a prejudice to say they are incapable. If the "west" doesn't trust their technology, so why all the fear? Would you trust a chinese nuclear missile? The people of India do. The Taiwanese also. The Nepalese...

You should remember that American made spaceships have had their share of failure. But you never heard of a russian spaceship killing six persons at once. You never heard of a chinese rocket failing.

I think this kind of eurocentered view does not help to clarify all the implications of the Chinese becoming space masters.

We'd better get used to the idea that the space is not an American/Russian province anymore. And here comes Japan, India, Brazil, Japan, France and all that jazz. And these guys are working seriously, doing their best. Watch out! here comes helter-skelter!

What about seven years? America took seven years starting almost from scratch to put a man on the Moon. The Chinese are much more advanced in space affairs today than the Americans were back in 1962, when Kennedy proposed getting to the Moon "til the end of the decade". Who can really assess the Chinese capabilities at this time? Seven years is just a wink for the 3000-year old Chinese empire. And you know what? I like those obliquous-eyed people. I wish them luck.

If ANYONE wants to take a shot at manned space travel, I'm willing to say "more power to them."

That settled, China isn't exactly unprepared. They've sent up three unmanned test capsules, and I haven't heard about any failures in them. 'Course, that might just be because they never said anything about the failures, but still. They DO have a fair amount of experience launching unmanned rockets. Go to www.astronautix.com and take a look at the news articles; there's some interesting stuff there. There's also a Space.com article.

Personally, I think they'll pull off a manned launch, they've been working on it for quite a while. Their space-program is built on more than duct-tape and wishes. The more important question is whether they'll bother to keep sending men up, or whether they'll let it fade away like Apollo did.

I've never heard of a russian spaceship physically capable of carrying six people at once. I have heard of a russian spaceship killing three people at once, the maximum it could carry.
Sure I have. I've even heard of chinese rockets failing during launch, crashing down onto a populated area, and killing dozens of civilians. Much like cold-war-era Russia, China is eager to publicize their sucesses yet cover up their failures.

I don't think you meant to come off sounding that arrogant or prejudiced, Jigsaw, but you sort of did.

The Chinese have put a massive amount of time, effort and money into their space program. It IS quite ambitious and they may need to scale down their expectations as they progress. Unlike the Soviet and US space programs, the Chinese have our (and ESA's and Japan's and India's, etc., etc.) experience and technology to draw from... some of it obtained legitimately, and some no doubt covertly. I think they stand a good chance of success.

While China has siginificant social and economic woes, they have a strong technological base and brilliant, resourceful individuals and institutions.

CJSF

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Two years ago moved from my town
I was looking up past the city lights
But the city lights got in my way

See the constellation ride across the sky
No cigar, no lady on his arm
Just a guy made of dots and lines

-from "See The Constellation"
by They Might Be Giants

"You should remember that American made spaceships have had their share of failure. But you never heard of a russian spaceship killing six persons at once...."

True Argos. The Russians managed to kill 50 in one shot.

"March 18, 1980: Fifty technicians die at Russia's Plesetsk Cosmodrome when a Vostok booster explodes while being fuelled. The incident is reported only in 1989."

Check out...

Space program failures

Line by the watch sergant from the old TV show Hill Street Blues. "Let's be careful out there".

(:raig

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(:raig Miller

We might do well to keep in mind that the spaceship earth is going to be uninhabitale in a few billion years. Any effort that expedites the evacuation of this doomed ship is worthwhile.

Also, a few people dying in a space program seems trivial (I know, not to their family and friends)compared to the thousands that die everyday in the natural order of things.

We really need to get over the idea, that the highly publicized demise of pseudo celebrities (by virtue of their chosen occupation)is somehow more tragic, or a greater loss to humankind than the death of any other human being in the daily course of our lives.

"It is well to remember that the entire universe, with one trifling exception, is composed of others."
John Andrew Holmes

Why not? Do you believe that the Americans went to the Moon and came back - alive? Moreover that was over 30 years ago.

I've heard of 92 people being killed by a Russian space vehicle. It's called the Nedelin disaster or Biakonur blast. October 24, 1960, most of the soviet rocket program scientists became flambe.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/r16_disaster.html

The Russians didn't admit to this publicly until 1989.

The other problem with his argument is that current Chinese rockets are incapable of striking the US mainland. (They lack the range) There is no amount of special pleading which would convince me that the Chinese would not deeply want a vehicle capable of striking the US mainland. If they can't make it to the US, the moon is a heckuva way longer off.

I don't see the Chinese moon shot being probable for 10-15 years.

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Valiant Dancer

Thanks for the link. This is the first time I've read the details about it.

I had always assumed the tests were part of the Soviet space program, but it seems instead to have been a test of a new missle for military purposes. Don't you think that this doesn't apply as a space disaster then, since it wasn't directly related to space exploration? (Although it's true that the technology developed would have been applied to space launches also.)

The Chinese just finished a test mission of their manned orbital capsule, complete with mannequins to simulate passengers. How can they put such a thing into orbit and still not have the capability to reach the USA?

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches...ch_020325.html

They are hoping to put a man into orbit within the next year or so, so they may closer to the moon than you would think. One advantage they have is that they don't have to figure everything out from scratch, the hard work of discovery has already been done for them. They also have the advantage of 30 years of technological and scientific advancements over the original Apollo missions. It'll be a piece of cake for them compared to what we had to go through.

My feeling is, if they can get a man into orbit and back within the next year, then there's a pretty good chance of them also getting to the moon by the end of the decade (assuming they really are determined to go). If they suffer setbacks, then of course it would also delay a moon shot as well.

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...And that, my liege, is how we know the Earth to be banana-shaped. --Sir Bedevere

The Chinese can launch a unmanned vechicle into orbit, and bring it back to Earth safely. Do the math. If they can achieve this task, then they can launch a warhead and strike any point on the Earth. The same rocket that they used to lauch the unmanned probe into orbit has the range to lob a nuke onto any city in the United States.

It's only a slight difference in trajectory.

If they mean to make it to the moon by 2010, I think they can do it. The only thing that can stop them is the funding and the willpower to develop the technology to make it to the Moon. Yes, it's ambitious... but that's why that I'll cheer as loudly as anyone in China when they become the second nation to place a person on the Lunar surface.

Maybe the U.S. should remember what it's like to be ambitious and take a clue from the Chinese. If we don't, maybe they'll get ambitious and make it to Mars while we're still debating how they managed to make it to the Moon.

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If E = MC², why do I have less energy the more mass my body acquires?
That is all.

--Azpod... Formerly known as James Justin

Actually, the Chinese do have ICBMs capable of striking the US. And there was an interesting article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/sci...00/1997747.stm

As to reaching the moon, it seems that they are in a good position to make the attempt, surely as strong a position as the Russians or the US in the early sixties. Like both of the superpowers of that time, they have mastered heavy rocketry and are at a point where they have the necessary hardware and experience to undertake Vostok/Mercury/Soyuz type programs at will. They can also quickly move to an N1 type program without having to develop an entirely new family of rocket engines if that is their choice. The US, in the early sixties, had no booster similar to the Russian R7 and we had to do a standing broadjump up to the Saturn-class vehicles; the Russian response was a gigantic super-cluster called the N1, a rocket still based on their standard engine technology. Saturn was a brilliant success...N1 a terrible failure. But technological advances probably would make an N1-like booster vastly more reliable now. Could they build one? Without a doubt. Could it fly a lunar mission? Probably with the same level of risk as a Saturn.

They have demonstrated the rocketry, the guidance, the aerodynamics, the life support and all other elements for a successful manned orbital mission, but they seem to be proceeding much more cautiously than either the USSR or the US did. Surely within a year or two they will launch their first astronauts. If it becomes politically or economically expedient for the Chinese to go to the moon, their system will ensure that the necessary resources are devoted to the attempt and they will probably succeed. It is instructive to remember that one of the proposed missions the Russians were actively pursuing when their program was shut down was a long-duration lunar base; had they succeeded with that, it would have made Apollo seem like a rather shabby stunt. Surely the Chinese are aware of the opportunities along these lines. It is almost certain that they also are aware of the "High Frontiers" concepts of Gerard O'Neill...who knows? Someday we may be buying power from a Chinese solar power satellite built with lunar materials.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: roidspop on 2002-05-22 22:01 ]</font>

Thanx for the tech input, guys. That's actually what I was looking for--"do they actually have the tech know-how, the tech support, to be able to pull this off? Or are they just blowing smoke, and gonna sacrifice some astronauts to the cause of saving face?"

I didn't mean to sound arrogant or Eurocentric--I'm actually just sitting here biting my nails in anxiety for these guys selected to be the first Chinese astronauts. You know, in the U.S. and in Russia, when they get a new batch of astronauts, hey, it's Party Time! They trot them out for the media, they do the press conference thing, you see their names and faces and a biography. But what makes me bite my nails in anxiety about the Chinese space program is that their astronauts seem to be just "generic" astronauts. I haven't seen any info on who they are. I wonder, paranoidly, if the Chinese Powers That Be consider them just interchangeable, disposable cogs in the State machinery.

And that maybe it doesn't matter--much--to the Chinese Powers That Be whether the rocket ship actually works, as long as it can be demonstrated to the rest of the world that the Chinese are trying to play the game just like everybody else.

That's what I'm worried about. And that's why I wanted to know whether they actually have the tech capabilities to pull this off.

Roidspop sounds like maybe they actually do, so I feel a little bit better now. [img]/phpBB/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]

I was wondering if China would be the best place to launch a rocket from anyways. I mean its fairly far from the equator and has pretty unpredictable weather. Also would the benifts of launching a man into space be that great for the Chinese. I mean American, French, British, Russian and other astronauts have already done it. It's not that big of a deal.

That's the point! Space is for the brave.

Actually, I believe the real question comes down to whether the politicians just want to say they can, or whether they actually mean to. I'd say that if the US had the technology to go to the moon in 1969, the Chinese have the technology to do it now. But the only reason that the US doesn't go back to the moon now is that no politicians want to spend the money for it. It's a matter of desire, not technology or infrastructure. If you have the first, it's easy to get the last two, even if you don't have them already.