Alright speculators, let's put our brains together and predict when the Chinese will put a human into space. I've added a new thread into the Universe Today forum. Go ahead and add the date and time you think the first yuhangyuan (Chinese astronaut) will launch into space. You have to pick a one-hour block and I'm assuming that everything is in Greenwich Mean Time (hint: the launch facility is at GMT+8, so if it's noon in London, it's 8:00pm in China). I'll maintain the list up at the top of the thread as new people post their replies.

Since it's my website, I get to go first. :-) So, I'm guessing October 22 between 11:00-12:00 GMT. I'd love to hear your justification for your guess as well. Night launch? Day launch? If enough of you join in, maybe I'll hand out a prize for the closest guess.

Here's the list:

September 30
10:00pm - ktanmay
October 1
3:00am - Manher
4:00am - melberjn
October 2
4:00pm - spasaire
October 3
1:00am - Vince Fukes
11:00am - Josh
12:00pm - Vegeta32
October 4
8:00pm - space_guy
October 9
2:00am - megaquark
October 10
4:00am - AstroStart.nl
October 13
4:00am - rosshenry
October 14
3:00am - Deep Watcher
October 15
12:00am - Martha_sea
7:00pm - Catherine Coyne
October 16
6:00am - tim
October 17
12:00am - wagda40
October 18
7:00am - Cambo
4:00pm - john.edwards@forecast
5:00pm - samarth269
October 19
5:00am - drogon_flye
October 20
9:00am - supermarket
9:00pm - earthworm
October 21
12:00am - A.J.H.
2:00am - astro
11:00am - rbravo
October 22
11:00am - Fraser
2:00pm - Deep_Eye
6:00pm - LewisRan
October 23
2:00am - william woller
10:00am - traintaz
October 24
8:00am - VGR79
October 25
2:00am - GSF
11:00am - wizoz20xx
October 26
1:00am - rFeuerherm
6:00am - KB3HTS
12:00pm - larko_L
1:00pm - Space Cadet
October 28
9:00pm - blgeigle
October 30
2:00am - attinasidesign
October 31
12:00am - jsc248
8:00pm - neelix
November 1
1:00am - Scherpenzeel
November 2
1:00am - kjargirl
November 3
12:00am - skyguy
3:00am - MarQ
November 5
7:00pm - lbj
November 7
2:00am - Duke Altair
4:00am - Locke
November 8
12:00am - major_eh
November 10
5:00am - ROB
November 11
12:00pm - WendellG
November 12
12:00am - PatHajovsky
November 17
2:00am - eggplant
December 3
6:00pm - Charles Bell
December 23
4:00am - CyberJIT
February 6
12:00pm - Alaskan
April 10
1:00pm - urso17

__________________
Fraser Cain
Publisher
Universe Today - Free space news delivered by email every weekday.

Hi Fraser, all,
i'll say October 2nd at 1600 hrs.

if it isnt that date can i guess again??

cheers
patrick

If you like, but then, I've already extracted your date from the list. Sorry, you're stuck with it. :-)

What's your rationale, by the way? October 2 is pretty early. Think the Chinese are looking to tie it closely to their national holiday?

__________________
Fraser Cain
Publisher
Universe Today - Free space news delivered by email every weekday.

Fraser may have guessed the date correctly as the Chinese do like to tie things to national holidays, and October 22 is my birthday. So, it all makes sence. After all, that is the day that I would have chosen right? :P However, there actually is one other date that even outshines my birthday ( ) And that is November 10, The Marine Corps Birthday. So, I choose 10 November at 2000 Burns, Oregon time. You all can do the math to see what time that is in Cina.

Semper Fi,

Wendell

__________________
Semper Fidelis

Hmm. It would actually be the next day. Umm. November 11 at noon. I'll add that.

__________________
Fraser Cain
Publisher
Universe Today - Free space news delivered by email every weekday.

Close enough.

__________________
Semper Fidelis

i believe the chinese will launch,26 october,12:00 am gmt

I'd guess at between 0200 and 0300 GMT (or 10:00 and 11:00 am at the launch site), on the 7th of November. A night launch would be more dramatic, but the Chinese would likely play it safe on their first manned spaceflight, and launch in the day. We'll see how close I get.
-the Duke of Altair

I'll go for 12 Midnight October 21st.

My sisters birthday.

hmmm...depends on the weather there. although i think october 16

10 October 2003, uhm... Daylaunch.
I guess the launch is between 2 and 10, but I want to be safe, so that's why I choosed 10. And a daylaunch, because it is going to be a very special launch for Chinese people. And if its day, everyone can see the launch. If it was night, then a lot of people are sleeping. :blink:

Between 12.00 and 13.00 (Chinese Time <_< )

__________________
Tim Kraayvanger
webmaster AstroStart
webmaster@astrostart.nl

The one and only Dutch astronomy site with news, articles and much more.

October 19th with a night launch probable around 1230am could be as late as 5am. I have als chosen Halloween (why not) same launch times though.

ill opt for 10 november at 3 there time

OK, I pick Nov. 3, 0:00-1:00 GMT
Justification: They might be ready as early as October, but why rush? I expect they'll be cautious. 0:00 is 8:00am there, so that gives all day for delays.

I think october 18 2000hrs chinese time .Just a wild guess.......
Would'nt it be great if there would be another space race (like that of US & USSR)between India & China .Both nations r developing & has extpertise in their respective fields..

I thought it would be a Chinese holiday also, but I DON'T think
that it will be the 10th of October. I think it will be on October
the third, the last day of the Chinese National holiday. Probably,
at night, around 8pm their time. When the Chinese are celebrating
and everyone can see the rocket take off in the sky. So October 3rd
at 8pm their time is my guess.

Well sports fans, I think it will be this weekend saturday on the 20th of
September, and I can't devine a time frame but this weekend definitely.
Jim
paying close attention to these developments, and their World-Wide
implications!
h34r:

My guess is Sunday October 20, 2003 at at 21:30 UTC (Local Monday 10-21-03 6:30 am). They probably want to start off the work week with a morning launch (good weather), gives them enough time in October to prepare and get the media buzz out.

Ill vote for 31 Oct.2003 between 8 and 9pm GMT.
Neelix

I say the Chinese launch time and date will be:
Oct. 26, 2003 at 0100GMT.

I say it will be October 9, 0200-0300 GMT.
A Chinese insider has been quoted as saying that it could be as early as October 10. Also, they plan for the week following the week long holiday from Oct1-Oct7.
Plus, you have the nature of the Chinese. They like to surprise people and are probably giving every indication of a later date with plans to launch early and then announce that they did it. Also, if it crashes, they can always say it was an "unmanned" test and maybe follow up with a November or December launch of the "real" manned vehicle.
I think they are closer than anyone will admit and are intentionally misleading the public to be able to launch in secrecy.
I figure between Oct 8 and Oct 14 with the 9th being an arbitrary day I pulled out of my hat. Definitely a day time launch.

oct. 23rd, 2003 10am gmt, just intuition.

My guess is April 10th, 2004, 1AM GMT. Lots of things can go wrong, and offhand I'd say a Spring launch should have less weather issues.

Have fun, everyone!

December 3 1800

__________________
[<span style='color:blue'><span style='font-size:14pt;line-height:100%'>Look up! </span></span>
http://www.quantumhyperspace.com/Bac...ch12152003.jpg

Okay, I've grabbed all the estimate above this post.

A few notes...

Chi, you said October 16, but I need a time.
Astrostart, you said 12pm Chinese time so I converted that to 0400 GMT
john.edwards, I converted your time to October 18, 1600 GMT
Rob, you didn't say am or pm, but I'm assuming pm. That's 0500 GMT
samarth269, john.edwards already had 1600, so I put you at 1700.
real-radio, I need a time to put this into the pool. Guess one. :-)
earthworm, I rounded this off to 21:00, to give you an hour block.

__________________
Fraser Cain
Publisher
Universe Today - Free space news delivered by email every weekday.

In the spirit of things, I will guess 1pm GMT on November 11, which will be 8:00am China time November 12 .

Well, that's what I get for my math. I'll stick with 8am November 12 China time. Forget the rest of my post. :huh:

My wild extravagant guess is the 18th of October, my birthday. The time is a bit more difficult since that would make the launch at some ungodly hour of about 4am local time. My guess would be 0700hrs GMT or about 1500hrs local time.

Had to edit the time, just can't add up too well! 15-8 =7. Repeat 15-8=7.

hi Frasier and all,

My guess is October 4th, 9am local time so 1am GMT.

Or it will be postponed indefinatly due to "technical difficulties" which will never be known but will have conspiricy theorists buzzing for years. ( the Aliens that live on the far side of the moon won't give them the Aluduim Q36 Explosive space modulator :-)

regards,

v

I reckon they've already launched and there was an accident and they didn't announce anything. *nods* I also think the tri-ads killed kennedy and many other stupid ideas.


Okay ... I'll go for October 3 @ 11:29 GMT. that's this year. and if not then Jan 27 @ 12:00am GMT.

__________________
1·618033988749894848204586834365638117720309179805 76286213544862270526046281890244970720720418939113 74