Quote:
It's not as simple as that. NASA has been constrained on budget by Congress and the President. With agendas of building the ISS, they are limited on what can be spent. Getting approval for funding of next generation launch vehicle is not a cake-walk.
NASA tried developing an alternative, with Lockheed Martin - the Venturestar. Design difficulties lead to cost overruns, and that lead to cancelation of the development.
|
Venturestar is a symptom of what i'm complaining about--they were going for three or four bleeding edge techniques on the same development program. As it happened, they all failed (some more so than others).
Bleeding edge research is fine for developing the next next generation of vehicle (Grandson of Shuttle); it's dumb for developing the next generation, particularly when the current generation is getting so creaky. And basing your hopes of a cheap, reliable, robust transportation system on three advanced technologies all coming together is foolish to the point of idiocy.
NASA should be engaged in research--research to develop new technologies to get us into space, research to develop new technologies (power, communications, propulsion) once we're in space. I'd like to see more such programs. Venturestar could be counted as one such. But Venturestar was not a realistic shuttle replacement program.
Quote:
However, it was just pointed out that in the September 2002 budget plan, there was appropriations put forward for development of a comprehensive plan. One step of the plan is developing a crew servicing module. This module would launch on a booster rocket, but be used for crew transfer. The proposed schedule would be development for a technology demonstrator by 2006, with operational vehicle by 2010. There is also look at the long term strategy for replacement of shuttle. So they are planning ahead.
It's just the replacement is not a quick thing. Consider what happened in shifting from Apollo to the Shuttle. Expendables were cut off until the shuttle was built and in place. That cost us Skylab, that fell out of orbit because there was no capability to visit it and bump it up in orbit. That is the same type of issue facing NASA now. To stop Shuttle while developing the replacement means years of NO FLIGHT. That's not the position we want to be in.
|
Saturn V production was terminated in the late 60's (before man landed on the moon). The shuttle was known to be economical only if the shuttle was the only vehicle launching satellites into orbit; expendables were shut down after the shuttle came on line (the military dragged its feet on this, for what turned out in hindsight to be good reasons).
Because expendables were going to be banned, new development more or less stopped on them.
Skylab fell because (1) more solar activity than anticipated, which sped up its decay, and (2) the shuttle was later than anticipated. Skylab was not designed to be resupplied (although there were some plans for it); i don't know how serious NASA was at maintaining it even if they could have gotten a shuttle to it in time.
I don't know if it is possible to read anything into the failure of NASA to develop a next generation shuttle (or for that matter, anything resembling a next generation technology that could be used in a next generation shuttle). It might mean that NASA is technically incapable of developing new launch technologies. It might be a management problem. It might be a willpower problem (for instance, NASA has a hard time justifying a manned space flight program, and hence has a hard time devoting any resources to maintaining one). It might be a budget/political problem (however, this might be a management problem as well--NASA management being hopelessly optimistic about what can reasonably be developed in a given time period with a given budget).
It has been suggested in the past that the shuttle essentially killed the old NASA--that NASA now spends almost all its resources in maintaining and flying the shuttle (and now the ISS) and has next to nothing left over for research and development. It has been suggested that the shuttle be privatized, or a new organization spawned off to run it. I have no idea if this is a good idea; but obviously i'm not very happy with the way things are currently going.