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| View Poll Results: When will we find the first exoEarth (see 'Criterias' in the text) | |||
| Before 2010 |
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18 | 17.48% |
| 2010 - 2012 |
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17 | 16.50% |
| 2012 - 2015 |
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11 | 10.68% |
| 2015 - 2020 |
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32 | 31.07% |
| 2020+ (or never) |
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25 | 24.27% |
| Voters: 103. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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A little vote on when we will find the first exoEarth. You don't have to discuss a lot, just a lot of voting, but of course you are still welcome to write a reply in case you feel like doing so
Criterias - Size: +/- 50% of Earth. - Mass: +/- 50% of Earth. - Distance: Earth would mainly consist of liquid water if Earth was placed in this distance from the star in question. Could i please ask you all to attend to this thread whenever you have time. Who's actually working with space related stuff?
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What the... I had heard that exoplanets were found before 1995 orbiting pulsars though 1995 is considered the year of the first proof of an exoplanet, but i didn't know they were this small. I just consulted my favorite exoplanet site where all known exoplanets are listet and i found one the mass of Pluto.
http://exoplanet.eu/planet.php?p1=PSR+1257%2B12&p2=b But how could we detect exoplanets back in 1992? Are exoplanets or exocomets easier to detect when they are orbiting pulsars? Can't see why this is so - unless they cover for the big flash the pulsars make. But the mass of Pluto, wow. Edit: Gliese 876 d is considered to be the smallest exoplanet to date AFAIK, with a mass of 2.3% of Jupiters mass, found in 2005. But what about an exoplanet that covers all the three areas stated at once? COROT shouldn't be cableable of detecting exoplanets the size of Earth with the exception of exoplanets oribiting very close to their parent star. My guess is that Kepler will be the first one to detect the first exoEarth, though i of course would hope it would be COROT ![]()
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I am not sure, but to won't be long now (1-15 years) , but the big question is when will be able to photo them directly. The first time a photo comes back green and blue the money going in to space will triple. (I hope)
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warning: I can't spell |
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Yes, COROT can find exoEarth, but it will be extremely close to its parent star in that case. Therefore, i don't expect COROT to find a planet with the criterias. But a very good point Tom, delays are what you could expect, and then some time for calibration, and i don't think Kepler will find any planet with the criterias so soon.
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If we're talking planets up to 1.5 Earth-radii, then easily in the 2010-12 timeframe, once COROT and Kepler are done.
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"He fell for her like his heart was a mob informant and she was the East River." --Anonymous |
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Well, the gas giants we find are also uninhabitable, but fair enough then. Let's look at the planets around the main sequence stars only
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Have your computer do CHARITY in fields such as medication, physics, chemistry and more without moving a finger. Visit http://boinc.berkeley.edu/ for more info. Thank you in advance!!! Please PM me if this signature convinced you to join the great BOINC community. http://www.boincsynergy.com/images/stats/comb-5873.jpg "The world is a fine place and worth fighting for." (Ernest Hemmingway) |
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Touche, but allow me to 'schplain. Even though gas giants aren't "inhabitable" in the "lets land and plant a flag" sense, theoretically it would be possible to visit said planets from orbit (even the epistellars) with a manned spacecraft or a probe. Y'ain't putting man nor beast nor machine anywhere near a pulsar planet with any semblence of operational functionality because of the insane amount of rads being hurled by the pulsar. Totally untouchable, even if we could travel to them.
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I'm not completely heartless, the doctor who removed it told me he'd never be able to get it all. |
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OK, i see.. But still something near a planet
But fair enough..
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Have your computer do CHARITY in fields such as medication, physics, chemistry and more without moving a finger. Visit http://boinc.berkeley.edu/ for more info. Thank you in advance!!! Please PM me if this signature convinced you to join the great BOINC community. http://www.boincsynergy.com/images/stats/comb-5873.jpg "The world is a fine place and worth fighting for." (Ernest Hemmingway) |
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You must think "rarer" than the theory's authors. Ward and Brownlee claim complex life is rare, not rocks within 50% of Earth's mass. Or even rocks covered with liquid water.
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Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint. |
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Is that all you want from a planet?
What about rocks that are sufficiently protected from debris by a gas giant? That have plate tectonics? That are out of significant cosmic ray danger? Not everyone subscribes to the need for these and other criteria, but for me the main reason for finding an earth like planet, is that it is sufficiently earth-like to inhabit (even if we never get there). |
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Well, that's how OP phrased the question, and by his criteria I answered "2012-2015". I certainly want to see something significantly more Earth-like.
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Fiction has to be plausible. Reality is under no such constraint. |
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For those inclined to oppose human meddling with the structure of the universe or the composition and configuration of objects and groups of objects within the universe, consider: Whether there is a limit to the magnitude of a modulation of chaos below which order remains invariant? Or, is order but a fiction invented by perspectives applied over finite, however large, time intervals? |