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| View Poll Results: When will we find the first exoEarth (see 'Criterias' in the text) | |||
| Before 2010 |
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20 | 15.38% |
| 2010 - 2012 |
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24 | 18.46% |
| 2012 - 2015 |
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15 | 11.54% |
| 2015 - 2020 |
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39 | 30.00% |
| 2020+ (or never) |
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32 | 24.62% |
| Voters: 130. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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A little vote on when we will find the first exoEarth. You don't have to discuss a lot, just a lot of voting, but of course you are still welcome to write a reply in case you feel like doing so
Criterias - Size: +/- 50% of Earth. - Mass: +/- 50% of Earth. - Distance: Earth would mainly consist of liquid water if Earth was placed in this distance from the star in question. Could i please ask you all to attend to this thread whenever you have time. Who's actually working with space related stuff?
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What the... I had heard that exoplanets were found before 1995 orbiting pulsars though 1995 is considered the year of the first proof of an exoplanet, but i didn't know they were this small. I just consulted my favorite exoplanet site where all known exoplanets are listet and i found one the mass of Pluto.
http://exoplanet.eu/planet.php?p1=PSR+1257%2B12&p2=b But how could we detect exoplanets back in 1992? Are exoplanets or exocomets easier to detect when they are orbiting pulsars? Can't see why this is so - unless they cover for the big flash the pulsars make. But the mass of Pluto, wow. Edit: Gliese 876 d is considered to be the smallest exoplanet to date AFAIK, with a mass of 2.3% of Jupiters mass, found in 2005. But what about an exoplanet that covers all the three areas stated at once? COROT shouldn't be cableable of detecting exoplanets the size of Earth with the exception of exoplanets oribiting very close to their parent star. My guess is that Kepler will be the first one to detect the first exoEarth, though i of course would hope it would be COROT ![]()
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I am not sure, but to won't be long now (1-15 years) , but the big question is when will be able to photo them directly. The first time a photo comes back green and blue the money going in to space will triple. (I hope)
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Yes, COROT can find exoEarth, but it will be extremely close to its parent star in that case. Therefore, i don't expect COROT to find a planet with the criterias. But a very good point Tom, delays are what you could expect, and then some time for calibration, and i don't think Kepler will find any planet with the criterias so soon.
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If we're talking planets up to 1.5 Earth-radii, then easily in the 2010-12 timeframe, once COROT and Kepler are done.
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The last time I felt a warm fuzzy feeling, I was informed by my doctor that it was just gas. |
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Well, the gas giants we find are also uninhabitable, but fair enough then. Let's look at the planets around the main sequence stars only
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Touche, but allow me to 'schplain. Even though gas giants aren't "inhabitable" in the "lets land and plant a flag" sense, theoretically it would be possible to visit said planets from orbit (even the epistellars) with a manned spacecraft or a probe. Y'ain't putting man nor beast nor machine anywhere near a pulsar planet with any semblence of operational functionality because of the insane amount of rads being hurled by the pulsar. Totally untouchable, even if we could travel to them.
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OK, i see.. But still something near a planet
But fair enough..
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You must think "rarer" than the theory's authors. Ward and Brownlee claim complex life is rare, not rocks within 50% of Earth's mass. Or even rocks covered with liquid water.
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Is that all you want from a planet?
What about rocks that are sufficiently protected from debris by a gas giant? That have plate tectonics? That are out of significant cosmic ray danger? Not everyone subscribes to the need for these and other criteria, but for me the main reason for finding an earth like planet, is that it is sufficiently earth-like to inhabit (even if we never get there). |
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Well, that's how OP phrased the question, and by his criteria I answered "2012-2015". I certainly want to see something significantly more Earth-like.
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Well I chose 2020+ in the poll because I do not think it will be until towards the end of this century that we will have the instruments in place which will be able to resolve sufficient detail from a small water bearing exoplanet, that we can reasonably call it another earth. The reason this is going to take so long is more a question of engineering and economics rather than science. We could certainly do this much earlier if we had the capability and funds to launch a lot of big instruments to build a large enough planet finding array. It just seems unlikely that the launch capacity for this purpose will become available for at least another 50 years.
However I did resent having my vote grouped together with the NEVER pessimists, I certainly think we will find an "Exoearth" but I feel the range of date offerings in the poll was just too optomistic.
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Wow, rarely seen such a close poll race, but i really like the way you've all voted, quite interesting
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Knowing the funding issue with space science experiments, I don't see a find being done before 2020. Maybe after that.
I do know it can happen. It's just a matter of getting it done with the right probe.
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I don't think COROT can find one... so 2015-2020 is most likely time frame.
Pulsar planets - it's like trying to find "people" on cemetary by digging out the graves... pulsar systems are dead, corpses of what once was star system. Thus, first out of Solar system planet was discovered in 1995, orbiting 51 Pegasi. However, there are even earlier reports, but retracted due to bad quality of data: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extrasolar_planet http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alrai The first published discovery to have received subsequent confirmation was made in 1988 by the Canadian astronomers Bruce Campbell, G. A. H. Walker, and S. Yang.[5] Their radial-velocity observations suggested that a planet orbited the star Gamma Cephei (also known as Alrai). They remained cautious about claiming a true planetary detection, and widespread skepticism persisted in the astronomical community for several years about this and other similar observations. It was mainly because the observations were at the very limits of instrumental capabilities at the time. Another source of confusion was that some of the possible planets might instead have been brown dwarfs, objects that are intermediate in mass between planets and stars. The following year, additional observations were published that supported the reality of the planet orbiting Gamma Cephei,[6] though subsequent work in 1992 raised serious doubts.[7] Finally, in 2003, improved techniques allowed the planet's existence to be confirmed.[8] References: 5) Campbell, B.; Walker, G. A. H.; Yang, S. (1988). "A search for substellar companions to solar-type stars". Astrophysical Journal, Part 1 331: 902 921. 6) Lawton, A. T.; Wright, P. (1989). "A planetary system for Gamma Cephei?". British Interplanetary Society, Journal 42: 335 336. 7) Walker, G. A. H.; Bohlender, D. A.; Walker, A. R.; Irwin, A. W.; Yang, S. L. S.; Larson, A. (1992). "Gamma Cephei - Rotation or planetary companion?". Astrophysical Journal, Part 2 - Letters 396 (2): L91 L94. 8) Artie P. Hatzes; William D. Cochran; Michael Endl; Barbara McArthur; Diane B. Paulson; Gordon A. H. Walker; Bruce Campbell; Stephenson Yang (2003). "A Planetary Companion to Gamma Cephei A". The Astrophysical Journal 599: 1383 1394. |
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2015/2020+ Darwin (i recall the last date i heard was the 2020+) 2002 TPF-I 2014 TPF-C The TPF might not be launched because of budget cuts. We can expect more of Darwin as it is considered a corner stone mission of ESA. But the TPCs will be very interesting in case NASA can finance them. Quote:
Brown dwarfs = Big gas planets
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The last time I felt a warm fuzzy feeling, I was informed by my doctor that it was just gas. |
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There truly are some major differences between terrestial and gas planets. However, i am not so sure how we define it exactly. If a gas planet is a planet that contains some gas then Earth is a gas planet, if it should only consist of gas we have yet to find the first one (and might never find it). All planets and other celestial bodies in the solar system has some terrestiality in them, but only a few has gas as you probably already know. Is there a definition of what a gas planet is or has the astronomers just not had any discussions about this as it is pretty easy to determain what everyone can agree on is a gas and what is a terrestial planet in our solar system and amoung exoplanets?
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Now that Pluto is downgraded that means Mercury is the only planet as far as we can tell which has no gas surrounding it, Mars may not have much but it certainly does have some, all other planets in our solar system have a well defined atmospheres. Surely the distinction should be based on percentage of planetary volume. If more than 50% of the total volume of a planet is made up of gas then it should be regarded as a gas planet. If on the other hand more than 50% of its volume is made up of solid or liquid material then it should be regarded as a rocky or terrestrial planet. After all actually only a small proportion of earth is actually solid, most of the volume of our own world is semi-liquid material, the "solid" crust makes up quite a small proportion earth's volume. So actually calling earth a "rocky" planet is a little bit of a misnomer - though perhaps an acceptable one. If this rule is applied then it is still reasonable to call Jupiter a Gas Planet even if it does have a liquid core. The only question I would pose about Brown Dwarfs in this context is are we sure that there are no fusion processes going on inside them. Because if there are then surely that tips the scales in favour of them being classified as stars and not planets.
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That is a good definition, i would have said something like that aswell, or maybe the mass, but if we defined the mass to be over 50% of the total mass of the planet we would get a lot more terrestial planets. But unfortunately i believe astronomers don't have a definition today. I think they should find one before we find those on the borderline. If we had defined a planet as it is defined today before we found Pluto, no one would mind the definition - it made it a lot harder to define a planet after Pluto was found due to the fact that a lot of people really loved this 'planet'.
True. I don't know that much about brown dwarfes, but how hard can it be? We need a given temperature and pressure to make nuclear reactions and i guess we know that of the brown dwarfes, don't we?
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Both Pluto and Mercury have atmospheres.
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